Is Russell Wilson the greatest Rookie of all time?

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  • Wilson was #1 all time in DYAR among rookies (since at least 1991). 25% higher than Griffin. Griffin's raw numbers were just barely better, but factor strength of defenses faced and Wilson wins. What's really striking about that is how DYAR is a counting stat that heavily favors players who see the ball more. Seattle had the league's lowest pass percentage. Even when factoring Wilson's runs, very few QBs had fewer chances to build up DYAR than Wilson did, and he still ran away with it among the rookie QBs.

    I really believe that if our defense doesn't crater at the end of that Falcons' game, Wilson is winning it all this year and becomes the first rookie to do it. That was the hardest part of that loss.
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  • IBleedBlueAndGreen wrote:http://www.nfl.com/photoessays/09000d5d8291c6ed#photo=1


    That list lost credibility when it included Peyton Manning. 3-13 as a starter, and 28 interceptions can't be excused away. Turnovers lose games, and most efficiency formulas weigh interceptions much heavier than touchdowns. Something like a 10/11 TD/INT ratio is way better than Manning's 26/28 that year, because interceptions carry so much negative value compared to touchdowns.
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  • kearly wrote:
    IBleedBlueAndGreen wrote:http://www.nfl.com/photoessays/09000d5d8291c6ed#photo=1


    That list lost credibility when it included Peyton Manning. 3-13 as a starter, and 28 interceptions can't be excused away. Turnovers lose games, and most efficiency formulas weigh interceptions much heavier than touchdowns. Something like a 10/11 TD/INT ratio is way better than Manning's 26/28 that year, because interceptions carry so much negative value compared to touchdowns.


    You do realize you just made an argument for RGIII right? After all, RGIII had 5 fewer interceptions and RW only had 6 more TD's.
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  • SacHawk2.0 wrote:
    kearly wrote:
    IBleedBlueAndGreen wrote:http://www.nfl.com/photoessays/09000d5d8291c6ed#photo=1


    That list lost credibility when it included Peyton Manning. 3-13 as a starter, and 28 interceptions can't be excused away. Turnovers lose games, and most efficiency formulas weigh interceptions much heavier than touchdowns. Something like a 10/11 TD/INT ratio is way better than Manning's 26/28 that year, because interceptions carry so much negative value compared to touchdowns.


    You do realize you just made an argument for RGIII right? After all, RGIII had 5 fewer interceptions and RW only had 6 more TD's.


    Not really. Wilson set the TD/INT ratio for rookies at +16 this year, better than RGIII. Besides, while RGIII only had two lost fumbles, he had a crap-ton more that were recovered by his team. And since fumbles are really a toss of the dice if you get them back or not, I'd say that factors into things. When you look at TDs (pass and run) compared to fumbles+interceptions, Wilson's case looks a damn sight stronger than RGIII's.
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  • therealjohncarlson wrote:
    SmokinHawk wrote:
    therealjohncarlson wrote:I can give you one this season who had a better year. But #2 he might have a case


    Who? RG3? :lol:


    Well yes... I believe Russell will be the better QB in the long-run and I would choose Wison straight up every damn time but RG3 had the better regular season

    He had fewer TD'd than Wilson ,AND Wilson has shown that he has more upside, so, next?
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  • Hawknballs wrote:I wonder if you took a poll on an unbaised site of whom would have the better overall career (wilson vs. rg3) who would win?

    Personally I wouldn't be at all surprised if RG3 had a terrible sophomore year especially with that injury.

    It would really surprise me if Wilson had a bad year.


    Most people would probably pick Wilson to have a better season next year, but mostly because of Bobby 3-Sticks injury and not because of potential ability.
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  • RG3? Led his team to a mediocre 9-7 record, backed into the playoffs, and lost his first playoff game. Struggled with injuries, missed 1 full game and was behind in the Baltimore game, which Kirk Cousins was able to salvage. Then permanently destroyed his knee in his first-ever playoff loss. Not impressive when compared with other great rookies.

    Eric Dickerson, Lawrence Taylor, Barry Sanders, Jim Brown and Dan Marino were all better rookies with greater impact on the NFL than RG3.

    He's not even the best rookie QB of all time. That would be Dan Marino.

    Dan Marino only played 9 games his rookie season, made the Pro Bowl, set like 6 records, threw for 2200 yards and 20 TDs, and lit up the NFL. He only lost 2 games as a rookie, took his team to 12-4 and won the AFC East. I remember his rookie season very well because I also remember watching the Seahawks beat him at Miami in the playoffs. He still put up a better fight than RG3, throwing for 2 TDs and keeping every Seattle fan on the edge of their seats. Thank god for another rookie phenom, Curt Warner!

    Marino's first full season he threw for 5100 yards, 48 TDs and took his team to the SuperBowl. He didn't throw for less than 4000 yards in any of his first 3 full seasons. Watching him play was like seeing a grown man play football against a bunch of kids. He just destroyed defenses. RG3 has never played at that level, not even in college.


    Oh, and Russell Wilson was great, but still not as great as Marino. Sorry. But I think he'll be better over the long haul and will actually win a SuperBowl.
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  • Seahawk Sailor wrote:Not really. Wilson set the TD/INT ratio for rookies at +16 this year, better than RGIII. Besides, while RGIII only had two lost fumbles, he had a crap-ton more that were recovered by his team. And since fumbles are really a toss of the dice if you get them back or not, I'd say that factors into things. When you look at TDs (pass and run) compared to fumbles+interceptions, Wilson's case looks a damn sight stronger than RGIII's.


    I don't think you understand the difference between differential and ratio.

    RGIII had a 4:1 TD:INT ratio to Russell Wilson's 2.6:1, so if interceptions carry a more "negative weight" than TDs do "positive weight", then that's absolutely a better indicator.
    Especially as his 7 rushing TDs take him to 27 total TDs compared to Wilson's but only 7 total turnovers compared to Wilson's 13.


    I still think Wilson had the better season by means of the fact that he was running a more advanced offense with receivers who get nowhere near the amount of separation that Garcon/Moss/Morgan do.
    Last edited by themunn on Thu Jan 17, 2013 6:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
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  • HansGruber wrote:RG3? Led his team to a mediocre 9-7 record, backed into the playoffs, and lost his first playoff game. Struggled with injuries, missed 1 full game and was behind in the Baltimore game, which Kirk Cousins was able to salvage. Then permanently destroyed his knee in his first-ever playoff loss. Not impressive when compared with other great rookies.

    Eric Dickerson, Lawrence Taylor, Barry Sanders, Jim Brown and Dan Marino were all better rookies with greater impact on the NFL than RG3.

    He's not even the best rookie QB of all time. That would be Dan Marino.

    Dan Marino only played 9 games his rookie season, made the Pro Bowl, set like 6 records, threw for 2200 yards and 20 TDs, and lit up the NFL. He only lost 2 games as a rookie, took his team to 12-4 and won the AFC East. I remember his rookie season very well because I also remember watching the Seahawks beat him at Miami in the playoffs. He still put up a better fight than RG3, throwing for 2 TDs and keeping every Seattle fan on the edge of their seats. Thank god for another rookie phenom, Curt Warner!

    Marino's first full season he threw for 5100 yards, 48 TDs and took his team to the SuperBowl. He didn't throw for less than 4000 yards in any of his first 3 full seasons. Watching him play was like seeing a grown man play football against a bunch of kids. He just destroyed defenses. RG3 has never played at that level, not even in college.


    Oh, and Russell Wilson was great, but still not as great as Marino. Sorry. But I think he'll be better over the long haul and will actually win a SuperBowl.


    Read your first sentence and realized you were fabricating data to make your point. Redskins were 10-6 not 9-7
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  • Greatest rookie, in Seahawks history, has to be Lofa Tatupu; captain MLB of a D that went to the Super Bowl.
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  • 652cHAWK wrote:Greatest rookie, in Seahawks history, has to be Lofa Tatupu; captain MLB of a D that went to the Super Bowl.


    What rookie linebacker records did he tie or break? None? Wilson > Tatupu, and I love Tatupu and have his jersey.
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  • RolandDeschain wrote:
    652cHAWK wrote:Greatest rookie, in Seahawks history, has to be Lofa Tatupu; captain MLB of a D that went to the Super Bowl.


    What rookie linebacker records did he tie or break? None? Wilson > Tatupu, and I love Tatupu and have his jersey.


    Definitely not going to argue with you there, since I don't see Lofa's name anywhere mentioned here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Seattle_Seahawks_records

    What RW did for us, in his rookie year, was absolutely phenomenal. Now, we just need a MLB that can Captain this D to a Super Bowl, yet this time we come out with the W.
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  • 652cHAWK wrote:
    RolandDeschain wrote:
    652cHAWK wrote:Greatest rookie, in Seahawks history, has to be Lofa Tatupu; captain MLB of a D that went to the Super Bowl.


    What rookie linebacker records did he tie or break? None? Wilson > Tatupu, and I love Tatupu and have his jersey.


    Definitely not going to argue with you there, since I don't see Lofa's name anywhere mentioned here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Seattle_Seahawks_records

    What RW did for us, in his rookie year, was absolutely phenomenal. Now, we just need a MLB that can Captain this D to a Super Bowl, yet this time we come out with the W.


    Lofa did some great things for the 2005 team. But I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Tubbs was more integral to our defensive success that season.
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  • I think RW had one of the best rookie season ever.

    I would put Cam on the list but he didnt win many games. but that wasnt all his fault.

    Without looking up some names(im tired, and a little drunk), i think Moss had a great rookie season that could rival RW's.

    But in the case of a QB, RW did have the best season for a rookie ever.
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  • therealjohncarlson wrote:
    HansGruber wrote:RG3? Led his team to a mediocre 9-7 record, backed into the playoffs, and lost his first playoff game. Struggled with injuries, missed 1 full game and was behind in the Baltimore game, which Kirk Cousins was able to salvage. Then permanently destroyed his knee in his first-ever playoff loss. Not impressive when compared with other great rookies.

    Eric Dickerson, Lawrence Taylor, Barry Sanders, Jim Brown and Dan Marino were all better rookies with greater impact on the NFL than RG3.

    He's not even the best rookie QB of all time. That would be Dan Marino.

    Dan Marino only played 9 games his rookie season, made the Pro Bowl, set like 6 records, threw for 2200 yards and 20 TDs, and lit up the NFL. He only lost 2 games as a rookie, took his team to 12-4 and won the AFC East. I remember his rookie season very well because I also remember watching the Seahawks beat him at Miami in the playoffs. He still put up a better fight than RG3, throwing for 2 TDs and keeping every Seattle fan on the edge of their seats. Thank god for another rookie phenom, Curt Warner!

    Marino's first full season he threw for 5100 yards, 48 TDs and took his team to the SuperBowl. He didn't throw for less than 4000 yards in any of his first 3 full seasons. Watching him play was like seeing a grown man play football against a bunch of kids. He just destroyed defenses. RG3 has never played at that level, not even in college.


    Oh, and Russell Wilson was great, but still not as great as Marino. Sorry. But I think he'll be better over the long haul and will actually win a SuperBowl.


    Read your first sentence and realized you were fabricating data to make your point. Redskins were 10-6 not 9-7


    That was an error, not a fabrication. If you don't understand the difference, please refrain from taking part in polite conversation with other adults. Your comment was insulting and pedantic without adding anything to the conversation, which is troll behavior.

    And, there is no way Russell Wilson or RG3's rookie season was better than Dan Marino's. The only people who believe that are the people who didn't watch Marino play.
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  • strohmin wrote:Has their ever been any rookie that has shattered expectations better than Russell? I can't think of anyone else who has had a better rookie season in the NFL.


    If we are going by pure numbers only? No, not even close.

    Cam Newton had the greatest rookie season I've ever seen. He had the passing yardage, rushing yardage and TD's.

    I also think that people tend to forget that RG3 put up better numbers than RW, despite missing half of the Atlanta game and all the Browns game.

    Also, RW was a non factor early in the year. He wasnt the reason they were winning games where as RG3 was directly responsibile for the Redskins winning and scoring points, since the defense was horrindous most of the year.
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  • themunn wrote:
    Seahawk Sailor wrote:Not really. Wilson set the TD/INT ratio for rookies at +16 this year, better than RGIII. Besides, while RGIII only had two lost fumbles, he had a crap-ton more that were recovered by his team. And since fumbles are really a toss of the dice if you get them back or not, I'd say that factors into things. When you look at TDs (pass and run) compared to fumbles+interceptions, Wilson's case looks a damn sight stronger than RGIII's.


    I don't think you understand the difference between differential and ratio.

    RGIII had a 4:1 TD:INT ratio to Russell Wilson's 2.6:1, so if interceptions carry a more "negative weight" than TDs do "positive weight", then that's absolutely a better indicator.
    Especially as his 7 rushing TDs take him to 27 total TDs compared to Wilson's but only 7 total turnovers compared to Wilson's 13.


    I still think Wilson had the better season by means of the fact that he was running a more advanced offense with receivers who get nowhere near the amount of separation that Garcon/Moss/Morgan do.


    Sorry, yes differential. Still, semantic mistakes aside, my supposition still holds that fumbles (whether lost or not) are a key factor in a player's performance. The only thing that distinguishes lost fumbles from recovered fumbles is luck. And that puts those numbers in a far different perspective.
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  • There have been rookies with better years.. in this case it doesn't table a position.. so Adrian Peterson and Randy Moss immediately jump out to me.
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