This blew my mind (Sando)

kearly · Jan 14, 2013

Saw this from Sando earlier today, kind of blew my mind. I'm not a fan of QBR, but in this specific case I'll give it a pass since it mirrors other metrics (passer rating, etc) that said Wilson played well. Anyway, here is what Sando pointed out:

Starting NFL quarterbacks have gone 78-8 during the 2012 regular season and playoffs when posting Total QBR scores as high as the 86.4 Russell Wilson posted for Seattle during a 30-28 divisional playoff defeat Sunday.

Here is the thing about those eight defeats: Wilson owns three of them, all since Week 8.

The 2012-2013 season has seen 264 total games to this point with each of those games having at least two QB performances. So 528+ QB performances this year.

Of those over 500 performances, just 86 of them scored on par with Wilson's performance yesterday. Only EIGHT times all season, IN OVER FIVE HUNDRED PERFORMANCES, did a QB perform that well and lose. The odds of performing that well and losing is 1.5% (528/8).

And Wilson owns THREE of those EIGHT. Not only that, but ALL of those losses came in Seattle's 8-3 stretch to end the season.

Now remember that Seattle finished with the #1 scoring defense in the NFL. This takes the term "hard luck" to a whole new level.

That kind of luck won't continue forever. Another reason for optimism.

Sarlacc83 · Jan 14, 2013

You're wrong about Wilson, kearly. He's not Ichiro.

He's Felix.

Jazzhawk · Jan 14, 2013

The Falcons truly earned that victory, as much as I hate to admit it. We were beat by a better TEAM.

FlyingGreg · Jan 14, 2013

kearly":1xoanx6l said:
Saw this from Sando earlier today, kind of blew my mind. I'm not a fan of QBR, but in this specific case I'll give it a pass since it mirrors other metrics (passer rating, etc) that said Wilson played well. Anyway, here is what Sando pointed out:

Starting NFL quarterbacks have gone 78-8 during the 2012 regular season and playoffs when posting Total QBR scores as high as the 86.4 Russell Wilson posted for Seattle during a 30-28 divisional playoff defeat Sunday.

Here is the thing about those eight defeats: Wilson owns three of them, all since Week 8.

Click to expand...

The 2012-2013 season has seen 264 total games to this point with each of those games having at least two QB performances. So 528+ QB performances this year.

Of those over 500 performances, just 86 of them scored on par with Wilson's performance yesterday. Only EIGHT times all season, IN OVER FIVE HUNDRED PERFORMANCES, did a QB perform that well and lose. The odds of performing that well and losing is 1.5% (528/8).

And Wilson owns THREE of those EIGHT. Not only that, but ALL of those losses came in Seattle's 8-3 stretch to end the season.

Now remember that Seattle finished with the #1 scoring defense in the NFL. This takes the term "hard luck" to a whole new level.

That kind of luck won't continue forever. Another reason for optimism.

But it's not "luck". It's a defense that cannot win the game when we need it the most - mostly because we continue to suffer from the biggest problem we've had for the last few years - lack of a consistent and effective pass rush, especially away from C Link.

We won't get any further in the playoffs next season unless it's absolutely fixed. Period.

Wilson is unbelieveable. How much more does he need to do for us to win...? It's a shame we wasted so many incredible performances.

hawksfansinceday1 · Jan 14, 2013

FlyingGreg":29666cx6 said:
But it's not "luck". It's a defense that cannot win the game when we need it the most - mostly because we continue to suffer from the biggest problem we've had for the last few years - lack of a consistent and effective pass rush, especially away from C Link.

We won't get any further in the playoffs next season unless it's absolutely fixed. Period.

Wilson is unbelieveable. How much more does he need to do for us to win...? It's a shame we wasted so many incredible performances.

This X 1000.
5 games the defense failed to hold a lead on the opposing team's last drive this season. 4 of those games resulted in defeats (exception Chicago but it could've been one too if the coin toss call was wrong). That ain't luck, it's a pattern based on a very legitimate sample size. It's very much a defensive failure when defensive success is absolutely needed most. Agree that 90% of the problem is lack of a 4 man or even 5 man pass rush (5 yesterday on Falcons last drive). No matter how great Russ is (already amazing) and how much greater he will become (has a real chance at the HOF folks!!), this team's defense is going to have to step up and make stops to win games now and then. They failed at doing so this year and it well could've cost us our first Super Bowl winning celebration....as a fanbase, city and team.

mikeak · Jan 14, 2013

ATL won how many games at the end of games? Driving to win and then not loosing games is a skillset for a team.

Seattle showed lack of maturity from coaching through players by not doing this. Arizona, Miami, Detroit, Atlanta and I am adding Chicago there because we went to OT instead of straight up win.

It happens - sure it does. But when needed we couldn't close the door all year long. That is not luck

Either figure out how to blow teams out or how to win close games...

Geologic · Jan 14, 2013

Sarlacc83":3tvkvr2z said:
You're wrong about Wilson, kearly. He's not Ichiro.

He's Felix.

He's the glove, Gary Payton

Greenhell · Jan 14, 2013

Sarlacc83":3jverc43 said:
You're wrong about Wilson, kearly. He's not Ichiro.

He's Felix.

Actually he's Russell. :mrgreen:

zayden185 · Jan 14, 2013

Jazzhawk":20xeu5b3 said:
The Falcons truly earned that victory, as much as I hate to admit it. We were beat by a better TEAM.

disagree...they arent a better team...they had the easiest schedule in the leage, and should have dropped 2-3-4 more games (didnt mind you) found a way to win, but wagner didnt trail Tony G...ran right next to him....rookie mistake

that wasnt the play of the game mind you

Atlanta not a better team...easy schedule and the right breaks all year

we walked up and down the field on them and left 6-10 on the board in the first half...PERIOD

TDOTSEAHAWK · Jan 14, 2013

I have to respectfully disagree. The Falcons won by 2 at home coming off a BYE against a team that is on their second East Coast road game in a row.

They are certainly not the better team but they scored more points than us in that scenario the one time that it occurred. There are several scenarios in which we destroy the Falcons.

FlyingGreg · Jan 14, 2013

TDOTSEAHAWK":24oek1e1 said:
I have to respectfully disagree. The Falcons won by 2 at home coming off a BYE against a team that is on their second East Coast road game in a row.

They are certainly not the better team but they scored more points than us in that scenario the one time that it occurred. There are several scenarios in which we destroy the Falcons.

Ok, but they are a better team for winning 13 games and beating the teams they had to and earning homefield advantage. We don't have anyone to blame but ourselves - we fudged it away in Detroit and Miami or we would have had games at C Link.

seahawks08 · Jan 14, 2013

I am impressed how far we came after just the beginning where we started with new QB, new personnel and all of the changes in the first year. We were dominant most of the year, we will become dominant all games next year. Seahawks given us a reason to believe again!

jdblack · Jan 14, 2013

FlyingGreg":1r0xq2te said:
Ok, but they are a better team for winning 13 games and beating the teams they had to and earning homefield advantage. We don't have anyone to blame but ourselves - we fudged it away in Detroit and Miami or we would have had games at C Link.

Semantics guys...football isn't like chess where the better player is almost certain to win.

It is possible for one team to win when the other team had the better odds to win. I agree that the Seahawks are a better team.

Vpk0718 · Jan 14, 2013

So Atlanta had an easier schedule, so what, they actually beat all of the teams on their schedule. They didn't lost to Detroit, or Miami.

PlinytheCenter · Jan 14, 2013

FlyingGreg":1upmuei4 said:
TDOTSEAHAWK":1upmuei4 said:

I have to respectfully disagree. The Falcons won by 2 at home coming off a BYE against a team that is on their second East Coast road game in a row.

They are certainly not the better team but they scored more points than us in that scenario the one time that it occurred. There are several scenarios in which we destroy the Falcons.

Click to expand...

Ok, but they are a better team for winning 13 games and beating the teams they had to and earning homefield advantage. We don't have anyone to blame but ourselves - we fudged it away in Detroit and Miami or we would have had games at C Link.

THIS X1000. The Miami game in particular cost us a home playoff game and the division title (everything else being equal of course).

Scottemojo · Jan 14, 2013

Kip, why is this surprising? Aren't all three losses games where after Wilson led the team to a touchdown, the defense choked? Since QBR strongly biases towards late game "clutch" production, these scores reflect more that Seattle has a clutch QB and shitty soft zone than any kind of bad luck.

FlyingGreg · Jan 14, 2013

jdblack":12ax668s said:
FlyingGreg":12ax668s said:

Ok, but they are a better team for winning 13 games and beating the teams they had to and earning homefield advantage. We don't have anyone to blame but ourselves - we fudged it away in Detroit and Miami or we would have had games at C Link.

Click to expand...

Semantics guys...football isn't like chess where the better player is almost certain to win.

It is possible for one team to win when the other team had the better odds to win. I agree that the Seahawks are a better team.

It's not semantics - the better team won yesterday. I don't know why people are so afraid to admit that. The Falcons are much further in their ascension than we are -- they've had to suffer tough playoff losses and they learned from them.

If we were the better team, we would have not let Atlanta drive 40+ yards in 20 seconds to put themselves in position to win.

Saying "we are the better team" is a binkie fans use to soothe their disappointment. I get it. But it's also disingenuous.

JSeahawks · Jan 14, 2013

FlyingGreg":31q71gz2 said:
jdblack":31q71gz2 said:

FlyingGreg":31q71gz2 said:

Ok, but they are a better team for winning 13 games and beating the teams they had to and earning homefield advantage. We don't have anyone to blame but ourselves - we fudged it away in Detroit and Miami or we would have had games at C Link.

Click to expand...

Semantics guys...football isn't like chess where the better player is almost certain to win.

It is possible for one team to win when the other team had the better odds to win. I agree that the Seahawks are a better team.

Click to expand...

It's not semantics - the better team won yesterday. I don't know why people are so afraid to admit that. The Falcons are much further in their ascension than we are -- they've had to suffer tough playoff losses and they learned from them.

If we were the better team, we would have not let Atlanta drive 40+ yards in 20 seconds to put themselves in position to win.

Saying "we are the better team" is a binkie fans use to soothe their disappointment. I get it. But it's also disingenuous.

Disagree. On a neutral field, primetime evening game I think we smoke them. But, of course we'll never know. We're the better team, they did more to win yesterday. Imo.

FlyingGreg · Jan 14, 2013

JSeahawks":2y4kx67n said:
Disagree. On a neutral field, primetime evening game I think we smoke them. But, of course we'll never know. We're the better team, they did more to win yesterday. Imo.

Neutral field, probably right. And definitely C Link.

But that's not my point. They are the better team because they won the games they had to, whereas we did not. Pretty simple. I just don't think it makes us look really classy playing the "we are better" card. Be gracious in defeat, even when we know a few little breaks there and we had it.

We'll see what happens next season when we get to roll back into the Dome. I imagine that will be a rather enticing target for a SNF/MNF game.

NFSeahawks · Jan 14, 2013

Jazzhawk":29mv4ctv said:
The Falcons truly earned that victory, as much as I hate to admit it. We were beat by a better TEAM.

How do you figure, we left points all over the place.

This blew my mind (Sando)

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