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 Post subject: Re: Note in regards to SoS Argument
 Post Posted: Wed Jan 09, 2013 5:24 pm 
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Shock2k wrote:
BlueTalons wrote:
What I HATE HATE HATE about stats is that they don't take into account other factors or situations. Stats can be cherry picked for anything you want to support an argument. Factors like drops, length of drives (i.e. field position,) play selection (rush/pass,) injuries, weather conditions (most of the Falcons' games were in a dome,) yada-yada-yada.


Ya but then we are stuck just arguing Philosophy. :D


Actually we have those stats, they're called Advanced Metrics. They take into account all those things he mentioned and complained about. They are so much better at determining quality, they have completely changed the philosophy of scouting for baseball by miles. Rewrote the book.

Football uses them too. They are very helpful, but people scowl at them because they dont understand them or presume to understand them. Stats like DVOA and QBR take into account all these situations on a play by play grid. They predict very well the better teams. Im not going to list the DVOA or QBR stats, im sure we have all seen them. But everyone needs to stop disregarding these because they dont understand complex algorithms coupled with a plethora of statistical data.

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 Post subject: Re: Note in regards to SoS Argument
 Post Posted: Wed Jan 09, 2013 6:03 pm 
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Algorithms, plethora, DVOA?!

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 Post subject: Re: Note in regards to SoS Argument
 Post Posted: Wed Jan 09, 2013 6:07 pm 
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Random aside. We all know that teams when they get behind start throwing the ball. They also do this when their running game sucks, or is stopped.

Anyone can come in here anytime and start throwing around how good or how bad a particular pass defense is, but if you are using yards per game as a metric, that's a crappy metric. If your run defense sucks, your pass defense may look elite, because no one needs to put the ball in the air. Same goes for pass TDs allowed... if anytime someone gets inside the five, they only need two rushes to score, well, you're going to look like a world beater when it comes to giving up zero pass TDs.

I agree with PP that some of the new systems are much much better when trying to grade defenses... the basic idea is kind of similar to contract bridge, you look at a particular type of situation, see what the average defense in the NFL manages to do in that situation, and then score the defense for doing better or worse than the average. It's still not perfect, but it's a hell of a lot better.

Oh, and another aside, the idea that one should throw out divisional games when making comparisons is just idiotic. Steel sharpens steel. Playing six games against tough divisional opponents -- especially when winning the division gets you a home game in the playoffs, and is necessary to get a bye -- well, those games are super super important in terms of team identity and how your team works in the macro picture. We happen to be in one of the most physical divisions in football, and as a result, we have to be physical, it's part of our nature. The Falcons don't have the same type of requirements, they have a division that seems a bit more wide open in terms of the styles of offense that are played, and that's fine, but football is a physical game, and is usually won on the line of scrimmage. I think our divisional games are SUPER important for that exact reason, and the idea that they should be dismissed or undervalued just because we know our opponent well... that's silly!


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