Need Help... I looked at it and I'm worried.

Shock2k

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This game is really bothering me. My gut said this game was easier than the Washington game. But guts are dumb, math is better.

It’s easy to see; the Falcons beat you by passing the ball... a lot. For the 2012 season they are ranked 26th (378) in rushing attempts as opposed to 8th (615) in passing attempts. And when they do run the ball its bad, ranked 29th they are averaging 3.7 yards per carry and 87 yards per game (which is an inflated number, from runs happening after 10+ point leads… clock management runs).

So how the heck does an arguably one dimensional offense put up a 13-3 record. Well of course by having a very talented triple threat called Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez.

Interesting Receiving Facts
1) WR1: Roddy White is technically the WR1 with 124 targets. But as shown below the equal distribution between all three is relatively close.
2) WR2: The “WR2” position is technically split between Jones and Gonzalez, with 129/124 targets respectively. The point being, Gonzales is targeted more like a receiver then a TE.
3) Slot: Same with your slot receiver Harry Morgan, who has split targets with RB Jaquizz Rogers this year 59/59 respectively.
4) LONG: White and Jones are both deep threats with 17/18 20+ yard catches on the season.
5) YAC: Among Receivers (Not RB’s) with 50 or more catches Jones is ranked 11nd and White is ranked 20th in Yards after the Catch. Only Dallas and Cinci have receiver pairs in the top 20 in YAC.
6) TD: White/Roddy/Gonz has near equal TD distribution.

SEA DEF v. Passing. (FO.com)
v. WR#1 - Rank 1 | White
v. WR#2 - Rank 10 | Jones
v. SLR - Rank 10 | Harry Douglas
v. TE - Rank 17 | Gonzales
v. RB – Rank 9 | Jaqquiz Rogers (Turner isn’t worth putting here for passing)

Keys to the game:

1) Seattle has to win the first half of the game: Atlanta has won every game in which it was leading in the first half. Atlanta has lost every game in which it was not leading in the first half. (We may not want to defer the kickoff this game)
2) Atlanta always finishes strong: Atlanta has outscored every opponent in the second half this year, except twice against Detroit (both wins).
3) You’re dealing with 3 legit primary receivers when playing the Falcon’s.
4) Pass Rush or CB’s: Since we probably aren’t going to out pass Matt Ryan, and even if we slow the game down by rushing Lynch, what is the answer to 3 Quality Targets, and 2 Mid Targets(Rogers/Douglas). I don’t think we have an answer unless we are running some type of Bandit/Nickle D all 4 downs? Because our pass rush against good O-Lines has only been good in spurts and never sustained.

Is Browner an answer to Julio Jones (does he have the speed to keep up with Jones on fly’s)? Is our LB core the answer to Gonzales? What about Jauqizz and Douglas?

Somebody help me here, I’m worried
 

HawksFan83

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Kam will probably be on Gonzalez is my guess, He's pretty decent on coverage, and if he hits him like he did Davis, then Tony retires early.

As for the 2 other boys, White and Jones, I think with Thomas in the back, and if sherm and browner can disrupt their timing, we should be ok.

We HAVE to get a pass rush HAVE to rattle Matt Ryan.
 

SouthSoundHawk

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Tony Gonzales is an animal, and I've always told my friends watching games...if ATL gets down watch Gonzales catch everything and bring them back into the game with a couple touchdowns.


He's all time amazing, and can turn it on when his team needs him.


Roddy White and Julio Jones are capable of not showing up during games (not often...but...it does happen). I think BB on White and Sherm on Jones will be great matchups and help take away what each player excels at.


Linebackers will need to STEP UP to contain Gonzales though, they have the speed to smother him...but he's a Pro's pro and runs exceptional routes and catch pretty much everything.


HOWEVER, I've seen this Seattle Defense run with the best air attacks (NE & GB), so I'm not extremely concerned. Just excited to watch some AWESOME match ups. ATL in the playoffs is nothing to be overly worried about. This is the NFL though, so they're not to be taken lightly by all means! They don't seem to be nearly as physical as Seattle, which IMO will be their downfall. Because, lets face it...Seattle is a solid combination of Physical/Finesse.
 
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Shock2k

Shock2k

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Ok, so Kam is the third level man option on Gonzales, Thomas is the double team for Jones(at least he favors the Jones routes), and Sherm is on his own with White. I can live with that.

Pass rush, I don't know. I have a feeling Ryan is just going to be sitting back hammering us over the middle with little to no pressure. Especially in the 3rd/4th quarter.

I also think we give up at least tow 20+ flies down the edge. (Most likely to Browners side).
 

Bigpumpkin

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This will be the game that tells us if our Defensive Coordinator has the balls to throw an "all out" blitz at Ryan.
 
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Shock2k

Shock2k

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SouthSoundHawk":2on6pwsa said:
HOWEVER, I've seen this Seattle Defense run with the best air attacks (NE & GB), so I'm not extremely concerned. Just excited to watch some AWESOME match ups. ATL in the playoffs is nothing to be overly worried about. This is the NFL though, so they're not to be taken lightly by all means! They don't seem to be nearly as physical as Seattle, which IMO will be their downfall. Because, lets face it...Seattle is a solid combination of Physical/Finesse.

We barely won both those games AT HOME. Just saying.
 
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Shock2k

Shock2k

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JSeahawks":3lnauyy9 said:
I think we're going to have to score at least 28 to win this one.

That's what keeps creeping up in my mind. You have to outscore them. Something Drew Brees had a hard time doing in one game, and couldn't do in another. Or somehow limit damage in the first have and clock manage with Lynch.

That's something to think about, we are good at limiting damage in the Red Zone. And they run a lot of turner (10 TD's) in the Red zone. That is a matchup that doesn't scare me.
 

SouthSoundHawk

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Shock2k":2q8myl8w said:
We barely won both those games AT HOME. Just saying.


Very true, but the Offense hadn't shifted gears yet either.


I was simply listing two teams that have potent passing attacks that the 'hawks kept in check and gave the offense a chance to win. :D
 

CHawks4L

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Look it up, Falcons loses have come when opponents rush heavy. Saints win came when they rushed more than they typically do. Tampa had success in their victory as well, and Carolina is our best hope with the read option under Cam. They had a few other games which were close and they won by last minute field goals, but opponents need to rush, and limit their offensive possessions. This plays right into our strengths.

I feel better about this game despite their firepower. I know they have good DBs as well, but I believe our balance will be hard to counter. We won't stop them completely, we just need to produce more defensive stops and I think we can win that battle.
 

MeenReen

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Shock2k":3g95rqnm said:
3) Slot: Same with your slot receiver Harry Morgan,

You've been watching too much Dexter, my brother! :D. I totally agree, though. I'm worried about having to cover White, Julio, Gonzales AND Jaquizz out of the backfield on EVERY pass attempt. They don't run a lot of screens, but they really should in this game. We'll have to get to Matty Ice in the first 3-4 seconds or else we give their talented WR corp time to get open. It is going to be an awesome matchup, but I have faith in our DBs to cover them. We should have enough pressure that Ryan throws some balls up, and we saw what happened last week. If we establish the run and are technical/disciplined on defense, we should win!
 

pinksheets

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This thread title threw me off, I had just gotten done typing the same thing into WebMD.
 

HawkGANG

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Dude your not giving our Hawks enough credit, our defense is awesome ...plus we haven't seen how Bruce will handle his new every down job..I feel he will shine. I would put Browner on Jones and Sherm on White. I think Browners physical style of play could take Jones out of his game, I don't care what anyone says he's never played a more physical corner than BB. Roddy White is a Vet who I feel won't get easily rattled by BB's physical play so I want our All Pro corner Sherm (yes I'm calling it) on him. I see Sherm getting an Int this game. Oh and lets not forget our Pro Bowl ball hawking saftey ET there to help over the top. As far as Gonzales goes Kam and our LB's are gonna need to step up ...Gonzales is a future Hall of Famer but he is getting old and with our speed and physical play I think we can neutralize him. All this is predicated on their offense getting on the field. Dont forget we got a great Offense too that has a nack for long punishing drives with our Pro Bowl RB by the name of Lynch. Be confident in our team.
 

HansGruber

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Heard the same thing about Green Bay and New England. That turned out okay.
 

Bigpumpkin

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HansGruber":dvjq46xw said:
Heard the same thing about Green Bay and New England. That turned out okay......

.....in the 12th Man's house.

I pray that we can get off to a faster start than we did in DC.....can't be spotting them 14 points in the 1st quarter. The coaching staff must have an effective plan to stop them.....count on it! Remember...no more than 15 points!!! We hold that this Sunday and SF/GB will be quaking!
 

drdiags

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Kam cannot cover Gonzalez. KJ Wright got burned by Gonzalez last year as well as Chancellor. Trufant is going to have problems with the slot. Browner had issues covering Jones last year. The Falcons will make plays against the secondary. I am thinking a Detroit Lions type game. I think JSea is correct, the Seahawks are going to have to score 28+ points.

They are going to have to blitz to create pressure on Ryan, opening themselves up to big plays. The defense will do the best it can but Wilson and the offense are going to have to win this one.

Or maybe the coaches decide to go with Lane/Maxwell as the nickle and Bruce/Scruggs step up their game? Without Jones/Clemons, our DL rotation is getting screwed up. Our young LBs could play out of their minds and tighten up the middle? They could go to the Bandit if they think the Falcons are going pass heavy? Gets Jeron Johnson on the field. Maybe Guy as well.
 
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Shock2k

Shock2k

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drdiags":3fj55i1l said:
Kam cannot cover Gonzalez. KJ Wright got burned by Gonzalez last year as well as Chancellor. Trufant is going to have problems with the slot. Browner had issues covering Jones last year. The Falcons will make plays against the secondary. I am thinking a Detroit Lions type game. I think JSea is correct, the Seahawks are going to have to score 28+ points.

They are going to have to blitz to create pressure on Ryan, opening themselves up to big plays. The defense will do the best it can but Wilson and the offense are going to have to win this one.

Or maybe the coaches decide to go with Lane/Maxwell as the nickle and Bruce/Scruggs step up their game. Without Jones/Clemons, our DL rotation is getting screwed up. Our young LBs could play out of their minds and tighten up the middle. They could go to the Bandit if they think the Falcons are going pass heavy? Gets Jeron Johnson on the field. Maybe Guy as well.

Ok so I'm not crazy. Would it be to much of a stretch to go full bandit / nickel and force them to run. Problem is I think Ryan would still make plays. May come down to us getting an interception.

I was on the Falcon's boards, and there was a post that said "Falcons are going to have to score 28 points to win." It's funny you are syaing the same thing.
 

drdiags

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If our big boys could stand the reps, keeping the likes of Branch, Bryant and Mebane with Irvin/Scruggs as the 4th DL could give you run support from the Bandit. Drop Kam down low to play the LB role along with Guy. You lose Hill and probably Wagner, opting to keep Wright maybe?

Browner(CB), Sherman(CB), Trufant(Nickle), Kam(LB-like), Thomas(S), Johnson (S) and Wright/Guy(LB/LB-Like).

I think Atlanta would run us out of this, since I only remember this working against the '10 Bears who had/have shaky OL protection. I am sure we ran it more than once. I just don't remember it having much success besides Chicago. I am just speculating so take all this with a grain of salt.
 

kearly

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Very unpredictable game. Seattle owns the matchup advantage and is a far better team, and the surface favors Seattle too. But it's 10 am and the 2nd east coast game in a row. And without Clemons, things could get interesting. Maybe the pass rush improves. Or maybe it's a disaster.

Atlanta would have probably been 8-0 at home if not for a meaningless final game. One of those wins was a decisive one over Denver. Basically, it's ALL on Matt Ryan. He has to carry them. But as Matt Stafford showed earlier this year, a terrific performance can be enough to get it done.
 

seahawks08

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kearly":5zjlofkw said:
Very unpredictable game. Seattle owns the matchup advantage and is a far better team, and the surface favors Seattle too. But it's 10 am and the 2nd east coast game in a row. And without Clemons, things could get interesting. Maybe the pass rush improves. Or maybe it's a disaster.

Atlanta would have probably been 8-0 at home if not for a meaningless final game. One of those wins was a decisive one over Denver. Basically, it's ALL on Matt Ryan. He has to carry them. But as Matt Stafford showed earlier this year, a terrific performance can be enough to get it done.

It's hard to be terrific in the first playoff game of the season. If you play a tough defense it is going to be a long day. I don't think a team built like the Seahawks will be easy to play against and sustain for 4 quarters. I am enjoying every moment of this ride.
 
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