This game is really bothering me. My gut said this game was easier than the Washington game. But guts are dumb, math is better.
It’s easy to see; the Falcons beat you by passing the ball... a lot. For the 2012 season they are ranked 26th (378) in rushing attempts as opposed to 8th (615) in passing attempts. And when they do run the ball its bad, ranked 29th they are averaging 3.7 yards per carry and 87 yards per game (which is an inflated number, from runs happening after 10+ point leads… clock management runs).
So how the heck does an arguably one dimensional offense put up a 13-3 record. Well of course by having a very talented triple threat called Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez.
Interesting Receiving Facts
1) WR1: Roddy White is technically the WR1 with 124 targets. But as shown below the equal distribution between all three is relatively close.
2) WR2: The “WR2” position is technically split between Jones and Gonzalez, with 129/124 targets respectively. The point being, Gonzales is targeted more like a receiver then a TE.
3) Slot: Same with your slot receiver Harry Morgan, who has split targets with RB Jaquizz Rogers this year 59/59 respectively.
4) LONG: White and Jones are both deep threats with 17/18 20+ yard catches on the season.
5) YAC: Among Receivers (Not RB’s) with 50 or more catches Jones is ranked 11nd and White is ranked 20th in Yards after the Catch. Only Dallas and Cinci have receiver pairs in the top 20 in YAC.
6) TD: White/Roddy/Gonz has near equal TD distribution.
SEA DEF v. Passing. (FO.com)
v. WR#1 - Rank 1 | White
v. WR#2 - Rank 10 | Jones
v. SLR - Rank 10 | Harry Douglas
v. TE - Rank 17 | Gonzales
v. RB – Rank 9 | Jaqquiz Rogers (Turner isn’t worth putting here for passing)
Keys to the game:
1) Seattle has to win the first half of the game: Atlanta has won every game in which it was leading in the first half. Atlanta has lost every game in which it was not leading in the first half. (We may not want to defer the kickoff this game)
2) Atlanta always finishes strong: Atlanta has outscored every opponent in the second half this year, except twice against Detroit (both wins).
3) You’re dealing with 3 legit primary receivers when playing the Falcon’s.
4) Pass Rush or CB’s: Since we probably aren’t going to out pass Matt Ryan, and even if we slow the game down by rushing Lynch, what is the answer to 3 Quality Targets, and 2 Mid Targets(Rogers/Douglas). I don’t think we have an answer unless we are running some type of Bandit/Nickle D all 4 downs? Because our pass rush against good O-Lines has only been good in spurts and never sustained.
Is Browner an answer to Julio Jones (does he have the speed to keep up with Jones on fly’s)? Is our LB core the answer to Gonzales? What about Jauqizz and Douglas?
Somebody help me here, I’m worried