IMO It's RG3 over Wilson over Luck.
Close between RG3 and Wilson, but I give the edge to RG3 because he's been phenomenal from Day 1. I think Russell would have easly won this award if he didn't start training camp #3 on the depth chart; if he was the man to begin with and gets all the snaps pre-season, no contest.
The only wild card will be how much weight is given to the story of Russell Wilson, his draft status, and rise to even be in the conversation. That could be enough to edge RG3's better start in some people's eyes.
Votes for Luck would be mostly emotional votes for their coach and their adversity, but he hasn't been the best rookie QB. Wilson could have had 4000 yards too if he threw the ball all over the place. Tired of WIlson being discredited becuase he happens to have a good run game and defense. That shouldn't be a penalty. ROY should go to the players exceeding expectations, being worth their draft value, and hanging with the pros. Wilson is the epitome of that.