kearly wrote: jewhawk wrote:This
is a great, detailed article from a few weeks ago comparing how Luck's usage affects his efficiency numbers compared to RG3's (the article only compares Luck and RG3, not Wilson).
All the article really argues is that Luck earns recognition for seeing more reps. I find that hard to swallow as much of an argument though, Wilson and RG3 had games this year where they topped 30 or 35 attempts and their efficiency numbers did not change.
From the article:
Griffin has lost a yard of efficiency roughly every six attempts, whereas Luck has lost one just every 50.
Luck was remarkably consistent no matter how often he had to throw. You could argue that RG3's superior efficiency throwing between 20-25 times a game is more impressive, but it's a mistake to completely ignore Luck's performance even in games where he had to throw 50+ times. And it's wrong to say that RG3's efficiency numbers did not change when they had to throw more. RG3's AY/A for the year was 8.59. In his five games where he attempted the most passes (29, 34, 35, 34, 39), his AY/A in those games were 6.24, 7.09, 9.23, 5.79, and 5.51, with the 9.23 game coming against Tampa Bay's defense that was one of the worst in the league against the pass. Luck's AY/A for the year was 6.42. In his five games where he attempted the most passes (46, 55, 48, 50, 54), his AY/A in those games were 6.70, 6.49, 9.85, 4.78, and 6.22. Wilson's AY/A for the year was 8.11. In his six games where he attempted the most passes (34, 27, 35, 27, 37), his AY/A in those games were 3.76, 13.07, 6.60, 9.78, and 9.00, with the 3.76 game being week 1 against the Cardinals in his first game in a limited offense. So you're right about Wilson's efficiency not suffering much with increased attempts, but RG3's efficiency dropped significantly with increased usage.
I also think you're downplaying the effect of the running game on RG3's efficiency. Sure, he deserves some credit for that because he's a threat to run himself, but I saw a stat somewhere a few weeks ago that RG3 led the league in Y/A from play-action, and was last in the league in Y/A without play action. This is further illustrated by looking at his numbers on 3rd and long, where there is no real threat of a rush on obvious passing downs. Here are the numbers for the rookie QBs on 3rd and 8 or more to go:
Luck: 41-83, 8.54 Y/A, 2.41 INT%, 5.68 Sack%, 36.4 1st down %
RG3: 28-48, 5.88 Y/A, 0.00 INT%, 11.11 Sack%, 9.3 1st down %
Wilson: 22-40, 7.33 Y/A, 2.44 INT%, 9.09 Sack%, 27.3 1st down %
So in situations where the defense knows it's a pass, RG3 struggles in a way that Luck and Wilson don't. Again, I'm not even saying I think Luck should win ROY. To me, the best order would be 1. Wilson, 2. Luck, 3. Griffin, but it's close between all of them.