Clayton still Screaming LUCK for OROY

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  • Based on what I saw when he was in college and playing against UW, and also what I've seen on most of the highlights through the year, there has seldom if ever been a quarterback who is able to hand the ball off with such grace and alacrity to whoever is going to actually make the yards and TDs, as Man-drew Luck. Damn, but he can hand off a ball!
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  • GeekHawk wrote:Based on what I saw when he was in college and playing against UW, and also what I've seen on most of the highlights through the year, there has seldom if ever been a quarterback who is able to hand the ball off with such grace and alacrity to whoever is going to actually make the yards and TDs, as Man-drew Luck. Damn, but he can hand off a ball!


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  • seahawks875 wrote:
    Tech Worlds wrote:
    seahawks875 wrote:Luck has carried his team all year, if u ever watch him play and not just look at his stats, he is the real deal, Wilson is one of the top qbs in the league in my opinion and a lot better than rg3 but luck deserves ROY


    how? by throwing interceptions?

    Like I said, u should actually watch football instead for looking at stats and acting like u know football when u really don't know what ur talking about


    I have watched, which means I've watched him throw nearly as many picks as he has TD's and also watched him have a completion percentage below 50 in more than a quarter of his games. 4th quarter comebacks are so overrated, if he played that well all game he wouldn't have put himself in a position where it was do or die in the first place.

    He doesn't even deserve to be in the conversation for OROY. Doug Martin and Alfred Morris are having better years than him.
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  • Tech Worlds wrote:
    GeekHawk wrote:Based on what I saw when he was in college and playing against UW, and also what I've seen on most of the highlights through the year, there has seldom if ever been a quarterback who is able to hand the ball off with such grace and alacrity to whoever is going to actually make the yards and TDs, as Man-drew Luck. Damn, but he can hand off a ball!


    Thank you! Now that is the kind of football knowledge I need bestowed up me. I appreciate you!


    I do what I can. I also never 'got' the fawning over Locker, and didn't drink the Ruskell koolaid. Maybe you should try watching football with your own eyeballs and not get your opinions spoon-fed to you.
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  • Luck is somehow getting credit for "carrying his team" when realistically, he hasn't contributed to his team anymore than Wilson has. The big "improvement" for the Colts comes partially because they started a sub-NFL quality QB in Painter for far too many games last year. Wonder what the Hawks record would have been had we played Painter as our guy last season. Luck deserves no credit for that. They also are playing a ridiculously easier schedule. Luck deserves no credit for that. Fact of the matter is, the Colts are still a bad team, they've just had things fall their way. Last I checked, they had a -42 point differential.

    I've said this before, but year to year with Luck, the Colts offense jumped from 28th to 18th in PPG. The Seahawks jumped from 23rd to 8th with Wilson. The Redskins went from 26th to 4th. I don't see the argument that Luck has somehow added so much more to the Colts than the other rookies have. People are 100% just following a narrative without any factual evidence to back it up.

    Luck has thrown for more picks than Wilson and RG3.....combined.
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  • Thanks for the correction(s) earlier in the thread. I always knew the award was decided based on regular season play, but read that the award was "to be decided after the Superbowl" somewhere on this forum.

    RW played well today, better than Luck and thus far better than Griffin. But all things considered, I'm afraid "better" might not be good enough for our boy to secure the award. Utter BS.

    My un-biased top 3 would be:
    RW
    Luck
    Griffin
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  • pinksheets wrote:........Fact of the matter is, the Colts are still a bad team, they've just had things fall their way. Last I checked, they had a -42 point differential........

    Wow, -42. They're one and done.
    Last edited by hawksfansinceday1 on Mon Dec 31, 2012 8:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
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  • It has been a trend here that efficiency stats are being overvalued without any consideration for Luck's usage. This is a great, detailed article from a few weeks ago comparing how Luck's usage affects his efficiency numbers compared to RG3's (the article only compares Luck and RG3, not Wilson). There are arguments that could be made for Wilson or RG3 for ROY also, and it truly wouldn't be a robbery if these three finished in any order for ROY.

    I made the comparison in that thread too, but it's worth repeating that there was a thread in this forum a couple weeks ago asking what the best season ever from a Seahawk QB was, and the most frequent answer was 2007 Hasselbeck even though his efficiency stats that year weren't close to his 2005 or Wilson's 2012.. You could consider a lot of the arguments for 2007 Hasselbeck from that thread in favor of Luck in the ROY race this year.
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  • John Clayton voted for Luck because he won 11 games playing the easiest schedule in the NFL.

    John Clayton voted for John Elway for executive of the year because he was lucky enough to sign the best free agent in NFL history.

    I like John Clayton. But insightful analysis is not his calling card.

    hawksfansinceday1 wrote:
    pinksheets wrote:........Fact of the matter is, the Colts are still a bad team, they've just had things fall their way. Last I checked, they had a -42 point differential........

    Wow, -42. Their one and done.


    Actually they play the Ravens who have looked mortal this season. On the plus side, they would face the Broncos/Pats in round 2, and they would surely get smoked in that one.
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  • I thought Rothlisberger won 9 games as a rookie. He didn't start every game until the starter got injured.
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  • jewhawk wrote:It has been a trend here that efficiency stats are being overvalued without any consideration for Luck's usage. This is a great, detailed article from a few weeks ago comparing how Luck's usage affects his efficiency numbers compared to RG3's (the article only compares Luck and RG3, not Wilson). There are arguments that could be made for Wilson or RG3 for ROY also, and it truly wouldn't be a robbery if these three finished in any order for ROY.

    I made the comparison in that thread too, but it's worth repeating that there was a thread in this forum a couple weeks ago asking what the best season ever from a Seahawk QB was, and the most frequent answer was 2007 Hasselbeck even though his efficiency stats that year weren't close to his 2005 or Wilson's 2012.. You could consider a lot of the arguments for 2007 Hasselbeck from that thread in favor of Luck in the ROY race this year.


    All the article really argues is that Luck earns recognition for seeing more reps. I find that hard to swallow as much of an argument though, Wilson and RG3 had games this year where they topped 30 or 35 attempts and their efficiency numbers did not change. If either QB were placed in Indy I would not expect them to revert to a 75 passer rating just from passing more and handing off less. Earlier this season Wilson struggled precisely because the team did not utilize him enough which robbed him of the ability to establish rhythm.

    I do think that some QBs- namely Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick, do truly seem more a product of the system than anything else. In a far less exaggerated sense, both Wilson and RG3 had a tangible benefit from playing in such well rounded offenses.

    But that said, how many 6th round rookies have the kind of season Morris just had? It's reasonable to think that RG3's threat to run had a symbiotic relationship with his running game. Similarly, Lynch just had a career year when paired with Wilson, a dual threat QB. If we are going to detract from those QBs for having a running game, some of that should be given back for making their RBs better.

    And to me, the idea that 2007 Hasselbeck was better than 2012 Wilson is way off the mark. There are many ways to exploit defenses against the pass- having a rushing attack is not the only way. Seattle also played one of the easiest schedules in NFL history that season. The 2007 offense was basically a very heavy dose of Hasselbeck to Engram. Before this season very few people suggested that 2007 was even Matt's best year, so it seems weird that they'd say it now when Wilson has surpassed 2005 Hass.

    Just my opinion, but I know greatness when I see it, and Hasselbeck was never a truly elite QB in the same breath as Manning, Rodgers, Brees, and Brady. The last 10 weeks, Wilson has been that good, whether statistically or by the eyeball test.
    Last edited by kearly on Sun Dec 30, 2012 9:33 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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  • Hawks46 wrote:I thought Rothlisberger won 9 games as a rookie. He didn't start every game until the starter got injured.

    Nope. 13-1 as a starter, and a playoff win.
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  • So if we get to the SB, he breaks it !
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  • It it just an impossible debate. All three are deserving. I'd probably give it to Luck. The Seahawks are better than the Colts in at least 16 of the 21 other positions, probably more. In my opinion, less than a handful of QB's in the NFL could have won 11 games with that roster, regardless of strength of schedule, and to be brutally honest, I doubt that RW would be one of them. On the flipside, I'd put the number of QB's that could have won 11 games with the Seahawks roster closer to 15 or 20. So there is just no way to make it an apples/apples comparison. I've seen at least 9 or 10 of Luck's games this year, and the dude is flat-out ballin', especially when it matters most. Really impressive stuff. And I haven't even talked about RGIII yet. I dunno. I guess I'm in the camp that doesn't really care. They're all going to be mainstays in the playoffs if healthy, and this debate is a decade away from being decided.

    As for Clayton, the guy knows absolutely nothing about football. Nobody knows more about roster moves or stories behind the stories, and he is one of the best football reporters in NFL history. He works incredibly hard at what he does (and has an even harder working staff to tell him the things he doesn't know), but having never played a football game in his life, there will always be a disconnect between Clayton and what actually happens on the field. So like Kearly said, take his analysis with a grain of salt.
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  • If "Running QBs" are penalized, because they have a good running game, should throwing QBs be penalized because they have good receivers, who can actually catch those hail marries they throw? Andrew Luck is still throwing the ball to Reggie Wayne, an above average receiver.
    Some of these arguments by ESPN are just silly and stupid.
    RW's numbers in the second half of the season have been superb, by ANY QB standard. ANY, including those guys who have been in the league for 10+ years. RW should be thrown in the MVP conversation for crying out loud. Lots of his numbers compare with Payton Manning and Aaron Rogers or Ryan. I would give the MVP to Adrian Peterson, btw. Manning get comeback player of the year. But RW is definitely the ROTY.
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Re: Clayton still Screaming LUCK for OROY
Mon Dec 31, 2012 12:10 am
  • SharkHawk wrote:2 John Clayton facts:

    1- John Clayton = Biggest Nerd in History of Universe
    2- John Clayton had his own office in Seahawks headquarters. When Paul Allen bought the team, Clayton's office was taken away and he had to start doing his Seahawks reports from the parking lot of HQ after practices. He was so incensed by how he was treated he leaked a bunch of stuff about the "dysfunctional Seahawks management". When he was called on having lost his office in team headquarters he acted all huffy as if it wasn't true. He does dislike the Hawks and he knows why... and it has nothing to do with David Greene and Mystermatt.

    That sounds an awful like what Ruskell apparently did to Sando. Which made Sando butt-hurt so he trashed the Hawks for a long while.
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Re: Clayton still Screaming LUCK for OROY
Mon Dec 31, 2012 12:21 am
  • Research Notes
    NEXT LEVEL: Russell Wilson completed 8-of-9 passes for 173 yards on throws outside the pocket Sunday, including a 44-yard pass to Golden Tate on the Seahawks' game-winning touchdown drive. That is the most single-game passing yards for any quarterback outside the pocket over the last two seasons. Wilson entered the game with a league-high 57 completions outside of the pocket, and five touchdown passes (tied for second).
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Re: Clayton still Screaming LUCK for OROY
Mon Dec 31, 2012 12:39 am
  • Who should win ROTY? Kind of like having three kids show up at your door late on Halloween but only having one piece of candy left.
    Who gets it? The one you are most familiar with? The cutest? The one wearing a green Borat thong? All deserving.

    Luck will win because for years all we've heard about him is that he's the next great QB. RG3 and RW are nice stories, but Luck has been preordained for this award for long time. He's the reason Indy tried to lose as many as possible in order to get him. Now they've gone back to being normal, with an easy last-place-- which is perfect for Luck.
    Wilson probably won't win because he's in Seattle. Although I can see a scenario where RG3 pulls enough east coast votes from Luck, then RW gets enough of the intelligent vote to win.

    I just hope Wilson earns the Lombardy trophy.
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  • seahawks875 wrote:Luck has carried his team all year, if u ever watch him play and not just look at his stats, he is the real deal, Wilson is one of the top qbs in the league in my opinion and a lot better than rg3 but luck deserves ROY



    Luck also leads the league in both interceptions pick-sixes. I get it his stats aren't great but I bet you the Colts would be even better had they kept Manning.

    I don't buy the (no weapons) excuse with Luck, Reggie Wayne is a Hall of Famer and Ty Hilton is a pretty solid receiver. Luck's been aided by his dome, being in shootouts which lets him throw a lot and the fact he got to play the Jaguars and Titans four times.
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  • rainger wrote:Getting sick of Clayton and his pushing of Luck.

    He was on the Seahawks post game show and just cannot get off the Luck bandwagon. Keeps saying cause indy has no running game and no (he claims) D that Luck is the best.

    BUT COME'ON MAN luck has his yards because of all the passes he threw, His ints are terrible, had low QBR, and many games under 50% passing. Clayton is all about the "star" getting the vote not wanting to look at the facts. Does not give credit to a 3rd rounder trys to say it is all because he is on a good team.

    RW totaly out played Luck this year but will not get the love from idiots like Clayton.



    The Colts were 2-14 last season and now they are 11-5 this season. Sure Luck threw many picks during this season, but hey he brought the wins. Seattle had the good D from last season with Lynch. Washington had Morris and RGIII improving their game, but Luck had the less help (Reggie Wayne) and scrub RB Ballard.


    Look at it this way even thought Luck has 8 more INT's than Wilson this season, he had the same wins as Wilson and has 1200 more yards than Wilson. Give everyone credit, and all 3 of them have a chance to win it.


    Rich Eisen had said Russell Wilson should win MVP, do you see Colts fan angry at that comment?
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  • Tical21 wrote:It it just an impossible debate. All three are deserving.


    This is the situation. For the voters it comes down to "who have you watched play more?". Few of the voters have probably watched enough Wilson for him to be anything but #3 consideration.
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  • Hawkfan77 wrote:
    SharkHawk wrote:2 John Clayton facts:

    1- John Clayton = Biggest Nerd in History of Universe
    2- John Clayton had his own office in Seahawks headquarters. When Paul Allen bought the team, Clayton's office was taken away and he had to start doing his Seahawks reports from the parking lot of HQ after practices. He was so incensed by how he was treated he leaked a bunch of stuff about the "dysfunctional Seahawks management". When he was called on having lost his office in team headquarters he acted all huffy as if it wasn't true. He does dislike the Hawks and he knows why... and it has nothing to do with David Greene and Mystermatt.

    That sounds an awful like what Ruskell apparently did to Sando. Which made Sando butt-hurt so he trashed the Hawks for a long while.


    Sando never had an office. That was eliminated. What happened to Sando was the NFL rules went into effect on video, audio, etc. and he had no advantage anymore as a local beat reporter. In fact, it cut his access considerably. Access went to the NFL Network #1, and to ESPN #2. Sando was placed in an extremely bad situation, and his only option was to take an NFL job, which he didn't want, or an ESPN job, which he didn't want either, because he wanted to be able to stay with the Trib at the same time. He negotiated back and forth with ESPN and finally got it worked out to where he could work out of Tacoma and keep his home. He only has to go to Bristol quarterly for meetings, and travel to games. 99% of his work he does from his house. So ESPN was his best option.

    It was a crummy situation for him, as he had created a world class blog, and got that blowhard Ron Borges fired for plagiarism. Sando went at him full force, even threatening legal action. Great for him.

    Sando really got screwed over by Goodell and his cronies and their new rules limiting anything beyond I think 60 seconds being recorded, so all of his podcasting and short player interviews were now considered copyright infringement by the NFL and they set all kinds of ridiculous rules. They saw that guys like Sando were creating much better content than they ever could. None of the teams went to bat for local beat writers either, and that really sucked. And yes... Ruskell was a dink and tried to cut off the connection between beat writers and the team. This irritated Holmgren as well, because as much as Holmgren liked keeping things "in house" he was great at leaking what he wanted to and was able to get bad info out more often than good info and mess with next week's opponent. After Ruskell came along then that conduit was cut off.

    So in review.... I love Sando, I hate Ruskell, and I think Goodell is a self-serving jackhole that just doesn't get what a divide he is creating between NFL fans and the league itself. My brother who works for VISA has GREAT access to the NFL, and I have none. He can get tickets to the SuperBowl the day before it is played by making one call. I have to enter a lottery and spend my life savings. Really stupid for "real fans", but really great for those who support Roger's agenda of "Olympicizing" the NFL.
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  • Carmon1274 wrote:
    rainger wrote:Getting sick of Clayton and his pushing of Luck.

    He was on the Seahawks post game show and just cannot get off the Luck bandwagon. Keeps saying cause indy has no running game and no (he claims) D that Luck is the best.

    BUT COME'ON MAN luck has his yards because of all the passes he threw, His ints are terrible, had low QBR, and many games under 50% passing. Clayton is all about the "star" getting the vote not wanting to look at the facts. Does not give credit to a 3rd rounder trys to say it is all because he is on a good team.

    RW totaly out played Luck this year but will not get the love from idiots like Clayton.



    The Colts were 2-14 last season and now they are 11-5 this season. Sure Luck threw many picks during this season, but hey he brought the wins. Seattle had the good D from last season with Lynch. Washington had Morris and RGIII improving their game, but Luck had the less help (Reggie Wayne) and scrub RB Ballard.


    Look at it this way even thought Luck has 8 more INT's than Wilson this season, he had the same wins as Wilson and has 1200 more yards than Wilson. Give everyone credit, and all 3 of them have a chance to win it.


    Rich Eisen had said Russell Wilson should win MVP, do you see Colts fan angry at that comment?


    How do you know they are not angry at this comment? Do you have your finger on the pulse of Colts nation?
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  • I have yet to see anger. What does it look like? How would I know it was emanating from a Colts fan?
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Re: Clayton still Screaming LUCK for OROY
Mon Dec 31, 2012 10:40 am
  • seahawks875 wrote:
    Tech Worlds wrote:
    seahawks875 wrote:Luck has carried his team all year, if u ever watch him play and not just look at his stats, he is the real deal, Wilson is one of the top qbs in the league in my opinion and a lot better than rg3 but luck deserves ROY


    how? by throwing interceptions?

    Like I said, u should actually watch football instead for looking at stats and acting like u know football when u really don't know what ur talking about


    it doesn't matter. It's not like Luck's numbers are close. He far inferior to RW and RG3 in completion %,

    Luck is completiong 54% while Wilson is @ 64% That's a significant difference.
    Luck is @ 6.98 yards/ Att. Wilson is @ 7.93 Yards/ Att. Nearly a full yard/ Att better- Again significant difference.

    Luck throw 234 more times than WIlson does and STILL is 3 TD's short of Wilson and Manning's record.

    The fact is RW is more efficient than Luck. For anyone to argue that isn't looking at reality.

    Luck is making more mistakes than either RW or RG3. Many of which are BAD THROWS/Decisions that are resulting in picks.

    The only reason poeple are giving him the benefit of the doubt is A) because of his draft status of #1 pick and the insane hype that he's had the last 2 years. B) Because his team has won 11 games. SEveral of which have been closer than they needed to be because Luck was giving away the ball.

    All 3 QB's have played well this year. But I think it's stupid to say that's it's clearly Luck's because he's thrown more yards. He loses every other statistical measure by significant margins. The point of football is to score and RW is responsible for more TD's than any of the other 2. So my vote is for RW.
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Re: Clayton still Screaming LUCK for OROY
Mon Dec 31, 2012 10:49 am
  • Hawks46 wrote:I thought Rothlisberger won 9 games as a rookie. He didn't start every game until the starter got injured.


    He was 13-0 as a starters and 14-1 including the playoffs in 2004.
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  • kearly wrote:
    jewhawk wrote:This is a great, detailed article from a few weeks ago comparing how Luck's usage affects his efficiency numbers compared to RG3's (the article only compares Luck and RG3, not Wilson).


    All the article really argues is that Luck earns recognition for seeing more reps. I find that hard to swallow as much of an argument though, Wilson and RG3 had games this year where they topped 30 or 35 attempts and their efficiency numbers did not change.

    From the article:
    Griffin has lost a yard of efficiency roughly every six attempts, whereas Luck has lost one just every 50.

    Luck was remarkably consistent no matter how often he had to throw. You could argue that RG3's superior efficiency throwing between 20-25 times a game is more impressive, but it's a mistake to completely ignore Luck's performance even in games where he had to throw 50+ times. And it's wrong to say that RG3's efficiency numbers did not change when they had to throw more. RG3's AY/A for the year was 8.59. In his five games where he attempted the most passes (29, 34, 35, 34, 39), his AY/A in those games were 6.24, 7.09, 9.23, 5.79, and 5.51, with the 9.23 game coming against Tampa Bay's defense that was one of the worst in the league against the pass. Luck's AY/A for the year was 6.42. In his five games where he attempted the most passes (46, 55, 48, 50, 54), his AY/A in those games were 6.70, 6.49, 9.85, 4.78, and 6.22. Wilson's AY/A for the year was 8.11. In his six games where he attempted the most passes (34, 27, 35, 27, 37), his AY/A in those games were 3.76, 13.07, 6.60, 9.78, and 9.00, with the 3.76 game being week 1 against the Cardinals in his first game in a limited offense. So you're right about Wilson's efficiency not suffering much with increased attempts, but RG3's efficiency dropped significantly with increased usage.

    I also think you're downplaying the effect of the running game on RG3's efficiency. Sure, he deserves some credit for that because he's a threat to run himself, but I saw a stat somewhere a few weeks ago that RG3 led the league in Y/A from play-action, and was last in the league in Y/A without play action. This is further illustrated by looking at his numbers on 3rd and long, where there is no real threat of a rush on obvious passing downs. Here are the numbers for the rookie QBs on 3rd and 8 or more to go:

    Luck: 41-83, 8.54 Y/A, 2.41 INT%, 5.68 Sack%, 36.4 1st down %
    RG3: 28-48, 5.88 Y/A, 0.00 INT%, 11.11 Sack%, 9.3 1st down %
    Wilson: 22-40, 7.33 Y/A, 2.44 INT%, 9.09 Sack%, 27.3 1st down %

    So in situations where the defense knows it's a pass, RG3 struggles in a way that Luck and Wilson don't. Again, I'm not even saying I think Luck should win ROY. To me, the best order would be 1. Wilson, 2. Luck, 3. Griffin, but it's close between all of them.
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  • Carmon1274 wrote:
    rainger wrote:Getting sick of Clayton and his pushing of Luck.

    He was on the Seahawks post game show and just cannot get off the Luck bandwagon. Keeps saying cause indy has no running game and no (he claims) D that Luck is the best.

    BUT COME'ON MAN luck has his yards because of all the passes he threw, His ints are terrible, had low QBR, and many games under 50% passing. Clayton is all about the "star" getting the vote not wanting to look at the facts. Does not give credit to a 3rd rounder trys to say it is all because he is on a good team.

    RW totaly out played Luck this year but will not get the love from idiots like Clayton.



    The Colts were 2-14 last season and now they are 11-5 this season. Sure Luck threw many picks during this season, but hey he brought the wins. Seattle had the good D from last season with Lynch. Washington had Morris and RGIII improving their game, but Luck had the less help (Reggie Wayne) and scrub RB Ballard.


    Look at it this way even thought Luck has 8 more INT's than Wilson this season, he had the same wins as Wilson and has 1200 more yards than Wilson. Give everyone credit, and all 3 of them have a chance to win it.


    Rich Eisen had said Russell Wilson should win MVP, do you see Colts fan angry at that comment?

    Colts were 2 and 14 because they purposely sucked for luck. They put in a 12th string QB for the year so that they would lose. They were a 10 / 11 win team before and it was not all just because of Manning. As for the same amount of wins as the Hawks did you actually look at their schedule and number of over 500 teams they played?

    I never said that Luck or BG3 were not good, I merely object to Clayton and his "analysis" which is my right. Please note where did I say I was angry how did that get into your comment? You can be disgusted by someone or something it does not have anything to do with anger.
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  • Colts AVERAGED over 12 wins per season for the prior 8 years before siezing the opportunity to replace Manning with the next great QB.
    Indy from 2003-2010... 99-29, .773 winning %, average 12.3 wins - 3.6 losses. That is a DYNASTY!

    This is not a bad team being lifted by a great new young QB-- it's a very good team that had one down year. They did everything possible to make sure they got the number one overall pick. Didn't even try to win until they had a two game "lead".

    Also, on Clayton-- He just guesses along with everyone else, and is wrong more often than not. He actually sucks at a) predictions, and b) inside info. I think some real NFL people feed him crap just for fun. But he isn't as clueless as Mel Kiper though...
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  • meh, who cares, they're all in the playoffs, all wild cards, all with similar records and stats, let post season play dictate their prestige, if they all lose their first or second games then fall back on stats..

    you have to figure if Luck did carry his team then he will fail in the playoffs, same with the rest...

    its just an award
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  • The colts had an awful roster with manning. It is even far worse now. It shouldnt be held against luck that he had to throw more. The dude put his entire team on his back. Russell didn't. So Russ should have and did have more efficient results.

    To me, the best way to determine the winner is to try to picture what the players seasons would have played out like if their roles were reversed. Wilson certainly had the far easier task, i don't think that is debatable. Can somebody answer this question...how many games would the colts have won if wilson was their qb?
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  • jewhawk wrote:
    kearly wrote:
    jewhawk wrote:This is a great, detailed article from a few weeks ago comparing how Luck's usage affects his efficiency numbers compared to RG3's (the article only compares Luck and RG3, not Wilson).


    All the article really argues is that Luck earns recognition for seeing more reps. I find that hard to swallow as much of an argument though, Wilson and RG3 had games this year where they topped 30 or 35 attempts and their efficiency numbers did not change.

    From the article:
    Griffin has lost a yard of efficiency roughly every six attempts, whereas Luck has lost one just every 50.

    Luck was remarkably consistent no matter how often he had to throw. You could argue that RG3's superior efficiency throwing between 20-25 times a game is more impressive, but it's a mistake to completely ignore Luck's performance even in games where he had to throw 50+ times. And it's wrong to say that RG3's efficiency numbers did not change when they had to throw more. RG3's AY/A for the year was 8.59. In his five games where he attempted the most passes (29, 34, 35, 34, 39), his AY/A in those games were 6.24, 7.09, 9.23, 5.79, and 5.51, with the 9.23 game coming against Tampa Bay's defense that was one of the worst in the league against the pass. Luck's AY/A for the year was 6.42. In his five games where he attempted the most passes (46, 55, 48, 50, 54), his AY/A in those games were 6.70, 6.49, 9.85, 4.78, and 6.22. Wilson's AY/A for the year was 8.11. In his six games where he attempted the most passes (34, 27, 35, 27, 37), his AY/A in those games were 3.76, 13.07, 6.60, 9.78, and 9.00, with the 3.76 game being week 1 against the Cardinals in his first game in a limited offense. So you're right about Wilson's efficiency not suffering much with increased attempts, but RG3's efficiency dropped significantly with increased usage.

    I also think you're downplaying the effect of the running game on RG3's efficiency. Sure, he deserves some credit for that because he's a threat to run himself, but I saw a stat somewhere a few weeks ago that RG3 led the league in Y/A from play-action, and was last in the league in Y/A without play action. This is further illustrated by looking at his numbers on 3rd and long, where there is no real threat of a rush on obvious passing downs. Here are the numbers for the rookie QBs on 3rd and 8 or more to go:

    Luck: 41-83, 8.54 Y/A, 2.41 INT%, 5.68 Sack%, 36.4 1st down %
    RG3: 28-48, 5.88 Y/A, 0.00 INT%, 11.11 Sack%, 9.3 1st down %
    Wilson: 22-40, 7.33 Y/A, 2.44 INT%, 9.09 Sack%, 27.3 1st down %

    So in situations where the defense knows it's a pass, RG3 struggles in a way that Luck and Wilson don't. Again, I'm not even saying I think Luck should win ROY. To me, the best order would be 1. Wilson, 2. Luck, 3. Griffin, but it's close between all of them.


    Wow... Great post Jewhawk. Really changed my opinion on Griffin and Luck. Thanks.
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  • Tical21 wrote:The colts had an awful roster with manning. It is even far worse now. It shouldnt be held against luck that he had to throw more. The dude put his entire team on his back. Russell didn't. So Russ should have and did have more efficient results.

    To me, the best way to determine the winner is to try to picture what the players seasons would have played out like if their roles were reversed. Wilson certainly had the far easier task, i don't think that is debatable. Can somebody answer this question...how many games would the colts have won if wilson was their qb?

    Luck shouldn't get extra points because the Colts tanked their season by starting Painter either.

    If you want to give a guy ROY who had a worse season but had excuses for having it, go ahead, just doesn't seem right to me. "Sure, Luck was worse than the other two, but.....". Don't get that, personally.
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  • I think Luck gets a lot of attention (aside from being drafted first overall and being one of the most hyped QB's of all-time) because the Colts were 2-14 last season. This year they're playoff bound with a 11-5 record.

    I have to admit that Russell Wilson has a better team around him than Andrew Luck. An elite tailback and top five defense are not luxuries that Luck has. So, it's easy for Andy Luck nutswingers to argue for him and make excuses for his horrid passing % and TD/INT rate.

    What i've seen as far as reasons/excuses for Luck to be OROY are petty stuff like; "Luck has 23 TD passes, that's only 3 less than Wilson." But they ignore the fact that Andrew Luck has 18 interceptions to Russell Wilson's 10. I also see a lot of people bringing up his passing yards. Yeah, Luck has 4,374 yards passing, but his accuracy is 54.1 pct. Compare that to Wilson's 64.1% (on his 3,118 yds).

    Anyway.. You can bring up raw stats and make a case for either of the three rookie quarterbacks. RG3 has certainly been outstanding as well. IMO, Offensive Rookie of the Year is between Wilson and RG3. Griffin III had an amazing regular season. He may not have thrown 26 TD's (RG3 has 20 TD passes), but he only has 5 interceptions on a 65.6 PCT and 3,200 yards. On top of his 815 rushing yards for 7 rushing touchdowns.

    Offensive Rookie of the Year is going to come down to playoff performance. Since Luck, Wilson and RG3 are all in the postseason. Whoever takes their team further will win the award. It may come down to the Seahawks vs. Redskins game. Russell Wilson versus Robert Griffin III. Whoever wins the game, will most likely win Offensive Rookie of the Year. Unless Luck takes his team to the Superbowl. How great would it be to see Wilson and Luck square off in the Superbowl?!
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  • What kind of a record do you think we have playing Green Bay, New England, Chicago, San Francisco, etc., with Jackson at the helm? Do you honestly think we'd pull any of those games out? How many 80- to 90-yard touchdown drives has Wilson made look easy this year? How many game-winning drives did Jackson lead for us?

    We're a 5-11 team at best with no quarterback change. Anybody who thinks differently hasn't been watching the Seahawks the last couple of seasons. And that's all on Wilson.
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  • 5-11 is generous.
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  • seahawks875 wrote:Luck has carried his team all year, if u ever watch him play and not just look at his stats, he is the real deal, Wilson is one of the top qbs in the league in my opinion and a lot better than rg3 but luck deserves ROY


    How can you say Luck "carried" a team that went to the Superbowl 3 years ago and was 9-7 2 years ago? The 2-14 season they had last year completely skews the perception people have about his contributions. Last years Colts team was much better than their record indicated. That team gave up on their season. Luck is not the only reason they went 11-5 this year.
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  • Hawks46 wrote:Of course they are on Luck's jock. He owns the rookie record for wins, by virtue of winning the early game.

    Russell just tied it. So it's like Luck owns it all by himself, according to the mediots.


    Scottemojo wrote:
    Hawks46 wrote:Of course they are on Luck's jock. He owns the rookie record for wins, by virtue of winning the early game.

    Russell just tied it. So it's like Luck owns it all by himself, according to the mediots.

    Never heard of Ben Roethlisberger, have you?

    This hate is making some of you kind of stupid.


    The sports media keep peddling this "Andrew Luck with 11 wins has the most wins of any rookie quarterback taken first overall.

    So? Russell Wilson owns the most wins of any rookie quarterback drafted 75th overall (and presumably the most wins of any rookie QB not taken in the first round too?)
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  • SeaWolv wrote:
    seahawks875 wrote:Luck has carried his team all year, if u ever watch him play and not just look at his stats, he is the real deal, Wilson is one of the top qbs in the league in my opinion and a lot better than rg3 but luck deserves ROY


    How can you say Luck "carried" a team that went to the Superbowl 3 years ago and was 9-7 2 years ago? The 2-14 season they had last year completely skews the perception people have about his contributions. Last years Colts team was much better than their record indicated. That team gave up on their season. Luck is not the only reason they went 11-5 this year.


    I think that team was better than 2-14, if you put a good-but-not-great quarterback like say Sam Bradford on the Chiefs they'd probably have won 10 games this year, that doesn't mean Sam Bradford is the second coming of the messiah.
    The talent is there, the coaching and the QB are not, and the Colts were the exact same.

    However I can't agree that it's not possible for a QB to carry a team that was a contender not long before, I'd say Matt Hasselbeck carried our 2007 team that was a superbowl team 2 years prior, and certainly by 2009 was devoid of talent.
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  • I think they should just split the award 3 ways, you really can make a case for each guy (if you only judge up until now, after the playoffs maybe one will emerge)
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  • Has anyone thought about this.
    How good would the Hawks record be, if Russell Wilson was anointed the starter before even getting into training camp?
    Does anyone remember how we lost the Arizona game in AZ?
    We had first and goal I think 6 times inside the AZ 10 and we couldn't convert. Given how the playbook has been opened of late, I can't even imagine us not converting on 1 and goal again.
    To me, the fact that RGIII and Andrew Luck were named started basically back in April gave them a massive advantage over RW.
    The playbook was opened for RW really only around the Miami/Chicago games. A week before the season, RW was still splitting reps with Matt Flynn, for crying out loud. One more win would have given us the division and the #2 seed. Think about it for a minute.
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  • the more I think about it, the more I realise it's a pretty rubbish reward

    I couldn't name any winners past Cam Newton and Von Miller last year.
    Recognition is nice, but unless it's the MVP most people won't really remember (imo, anyway)
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  • I'm ok if Wilson doesn't get it, don't need the curse of Rick Mirer
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  • themunn wrote:However I can't agree that it's not possible for a QB to carry a team that was a contender not long before, I'd say Matt Hasselbeck carried our 2007 team that was a superbowl team 2 years prior, and certainly by 2009 was devoid of talent.


    I would not debate this point. However, you could easily use the comparison of the 2011 vs. the 2012 Seahahwks as proof of RW's value. Same basic talent outside QB, same coaching staff very different results but that doesn't mean RW "carried" the team. He did make the difference though. Luck did the same. All things being equal in this regards I say RW is ROY because he has higher QBR, higher completion percentage more TD passes and more rushing yards than Luck. He should get it over RG3 because no one ever expected his numbers to be as good in almost every category and yet he was a 3rd rounder.
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Re: Clayton still Screaming LUCK for OROY
Tue Jan 01, 2013 11:35 am
  • pinksheets wrote:
    Tical21 wrote:The colts had an awful roster with manning. It is even far worse now. It shouldnt be held against luck that he had to throw more. The dude put his entire team on his back. Russell didn't. So Russ should have and did have more efficient results.

    To me, the best way to determine the winner is to try to picture what the players seasons would have played out like if their roles were reversed. Wilson certainly had the far easier task, i don't think that is debatable. Can somebody answer this question...how many games would the colts have won if wilson was their qb?

    Luck shouldn't get extra points because the Colts tanked their season by starting Painter either.

    If you want to give a guy ROY who had a worse season but had excuses for having it, go ahead, just doesn't seem right to me. "Sure, Luck was worse than the other two, but.....". Don't get that, personally.


    When did I ever mention anything about the Colts record last year? Player for player, the Colts have one of the 5 worst rosters in the NFL. They had one of the 7-10 worst during most of Manning's career as well. Whoever got that roster to 11 wins is definitely deserving of some kind of award, that's all I'm saying. I don't know what tangent you started going on or why you felt the need to put words in my mouth.
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  • Tical21 wrote:
    pinksheets wrote:
    Tical21 wrote:The colts had an awful roster with manning. It is even far worse now. It shouldnt be held against luck that he had to throw more. The dude put his entire team on his back. Russell didn't. So Russ should have and did have more efficient results.

    To me, the best way to determine the winner is to try to picture what the players seasons would have played out like if their roles were reversed. Wilson certainly had the far easier task, i don't think that is debatable. Can somebody answer this question...how many games would the colts have won if wilson was their qb?

    Luck shouldn't get extra points because the Colts tanked their season by starting Painter either.

    If you want to give a guy ROY who had a worse season but had excuses for having it, go ahead, just doesn't seem right to me. "Sure, Luck was worse than the other two, but.....". Don't get that, personally.


    When did I ever mention anything about the Colts record last year? Player for player, the Colts have one of the 5 worst rosters in the NFL. They had one of the 7-10 worst during most of Manning's career as well. Whoever got that roster to 11 wins is definitely deserving of some kind of award, that's all I'm saying. I don't know what tangent you started going on or why you felt the need to put words in my mouth.


    Player for player, the Colts have one of the 5 worst rosters in the NFL? Says who? You? Why? Reggie Wayne is a HOFer. Does RW have one of those to throw to? Luck has a couple of young and extremely talented WR's that complement Wayne. They have one of the best-regarded young offensive lines in the league. Articles like this one detail how their offensive line is better at every position between 2011 and 2012 with their roster overhaul. Every position! How many teams can say that in 2012? Obviously, RW has the advantage of a stronger RB complement. No argument there. The quality of their defense is irrelevant to this conversation for the purposes of determining how good Luck is vs his OROTY competition. A weaker defense accounted for his higher number of attempts and created, frankly, those opportunities for game-winning drives that the other guys had a few less of. Other than that, going position-by-position on the defensive side of the ball to try and prove that Luck is more deserving than RW (or RG) is a total red herring.

    I think one factor that you're overlooking here is that Luck had the luxury of much better protection in the pocket this year. Colts QBs (Luck) were only sacked 6.13% of the time this year. Luck's a solid runner and pretty intuitive about the pass rush, but he was getting good protection this year overall. If anything, that should obviously help Luck's numbers - diminish his interceptions and improve his completion percentages. Seattle QB's (Wilson)? Sacked 7.53% of the time. That's WITH Wilson escaping innumerable additional sacks. Wilson was arguably at his best in these situations when the play broke down and it was up to him to make the plays. He kept his interception rate low and his completion percentage high in spite of inferior pass protection. Not to mention the quality of Seattle's receivers is pretty average. Rice is talented but inconsistent. Always has been. Tate? Even more inconsistent. Baldwin (injuries)? Edwards (done)? Who else was there to throw to, really? Miller? A decent complement. Bottom line, I'd bet most objective organizations would rather have the HOFer in Wayne and the young talent in Indy over Seattle's average lot of receivers.

    All of this, imo, would make RW's accomplishments this season more impressive than Luck's EVEN IF their numbers were essentially equal. The fact that Wilson has gotten better and better throughout the season and put up significantly better numbers than Luck? I just don't see an argument for Luck other than the immeasurable and thus pointless "he had less talent around him" argument.

    Oh yeah, and your question about, "how many games would the colts have won if wilson was their qb?" As if anyone can answer this. I will say the following, though. I think Luck would've been sacked 50+ times as a Seahawk this year (RW was sacked 33 times) given the same number of pass plays behind our OL. So much of RW's value comes from avoiding negative plays that most QB's wouldn't be able to. That just adds to RW's merits for the award.

    Just two cents from a guy who watches a lot of NFL games every week.
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  • Not going to bash on Luck because he has had a great season but to think he is in the ball park of RG3 and RW is for ROY is ridiculous. I hate the "but his team was the worst in football last year!" argument. It is just an excuse for ESPN and other media outlets to push their agenda because they practically named him rookie of the year the minute he was drafted.
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  • Tech Worlds wrote:
    seahawks875 wrote:Luck has carried his team all year, if u ever watch him play and not just look at his stats, he is the real deal, Wilson is one of the top qbs in the league in my opinion and a lot better than rg3 but luck deserves ROY


    how? by throwing interceptions?


    Don't forget his 10 fumbles also, agains the easiest schedule in the NFL.
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