Andrew Perloff SI "Rams will hold Seahawks under 30 points"

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  • One of you stat gurus tell me: If they "hold us to under thirty" - how many times in the last few years would a team scoring 27 to 29 points result in a loss?

    I think this bold prediction is really a slap in the face to the St. Louis Rams more than a deflation on our ability to score. Just plain stupid analysis.
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    nsport
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  • if that's what counts as a bold prediction these days then I'm not going to argue...
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  • Rams are no joke. They will come to play.
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  • As long as they don't hold us under W.
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  • One of my favorite columnists, Mike Tanier of Sports on Earth, disagrees. Not sure if he's completely serious or only half serious.

    http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/40796268/

    Rams at Seahawks

    4:25 p.m. Sunday, Fox
    Line: Seahawks by 11 ½

    Early in the season, the Seahawks were a very good fourth-quarter team. They caught a break with a blown call against the Packers, of course, but impressive fourth quarters resulted in wins against the Bears and Patriots even though the Seahawks looked very ordinary (particularly on offense) for the first 45 minutes of those games.

    In the last three weeks of Hulk-smash, the Seahawks have become a great first-quarter team. They took double-digit leads against the 49ers, Bills and Cardinals by midway through the second quarter, then stuck each game under a heat lamp until serving time.

    Great fourth-quarter teams inspire sportswriter poetry: the epic comebacks, the final drives, the clutch, swaggering swagger-clutching. The problems: A team that is only so-so for three quarters often does not get the chance to be heroic in that fourth quarter, and final-drive tightrope walks can fail if everything does not work perfectly (see the Seahawks’ early losses to the Cardinals and Rams).

    A great first-quarter team has a built-in margin for error: It can play for field goals or punt-and-pin while its opponent grows increasingly desperate, its playbook remains balanced and so on. Of course, great first-quarter teams don’t create much drama and only inspire purple prose when they bust out three straight blowouts in the heat of the playoff chase.

    Once a team is great in the first quarter and very good in the fourth quarter, we stop parsing things out and start calling them a great team. The middle quarters tend to take care of themselves.

    Prediction: Seahawks 52 (why not?), Rams 16
    Last edited by Erebus on Fri Dec 28, 2012 5:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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  • Who would have thought after the first four weeks of the season that somebody "holding the Hawks to under 30 points" would be a controversial prediction.

    I. LOVE. IT!!!
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  • I could careless if they score 3 points as long as they have more than the Rams.

    The Hawks are doing things in a pretty methodical manner and getting TDs instead of FGs. Every down has a chance of making a first, but we can't expect high output every week, I just want them to win. If they have another high scoring affair though, the media is going to explode.
    Eh... Whatever...
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  • Tough one to call. The Niner's will be playing at the same time so I don't expect Pete to go into coast mode early. We have also absolutely throttled our division opponents on the rematch's so far. Will they throttle the Rams too? Maybe.

    One thing that worries me about this game is the lack of something to get up for. The Cardinals were our first loss and one we definitely felt we gave away, we had revenge and first division blood on our minds. The Bills game was to prove we could play away from home and validate the Chicago win. The Niner's just absolutely needed to have a collective foot shoved shoved up their ass to let them know there is a new bully in town. This is a division game as well as a revenge match but it just doesn't have the feel of the last few games. Each of those games was easy to not look past the opponent but this week I am a little worried we could allow our focus to slip past and onto thought of the playoffs. That is really the only thing that scares me.

    The other big factor is Fisher has his team playing way better than they have played in many years and more importantly believing they deserve to be in the conversation for playoffs and a respectful division Foe. I have a hard time believing they will lay down at any point in this game.

    That said, I think we currently have the more rounded team and better overall talent. Add in the 12th man and this looks like a game we should be able to handle with somewhat ease. Will the ball bounce our way? Will the officials decide to be a factor? Those unknowns could make this a much more interesting game.

    My hope is for RW to get at least two TD's in the air and we dial up another route but I will say I am not 100% confident this game will be as easy as some seem to think.
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  • strohmin wrote:Rams are no joke. They will come to play.


    Pete knows that, but he's got a pretty good team himself, AND, he's learned that if you don't want to lose anymore close games, you score fast, and often in the first half, and if they start seeing a a comeback developing, you run the score up to ensure the win.
    The ONLY way Pete doesn't follow his new concept, is if he sees that his ace players look like they're maybe going to get hurt over a pretty much home show game, and would rather have everyone healthy for games that really count.
    I'm having doubts that our players would even complain about minor owies, for fear that Pete might make them rest on the sidelines.
    Fisher and the Rams are a much improved team since our first meeting, BUT, so is Pete's Seahawks, and 150 points in the last three games, + Wilson's 4TD game against the Leagues 2nd best Defense last Week.
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  • From the article:

    Last Week: 4-6; Season record: 63-87 (.42)


    Take that prediction for what it's worth. On Sunday we roll.
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  • $$$OP $$$SOURCE wrote:I disagree with his prediction but everyone is entitled to their opinion. :D

    "8. The Rams hold the Seahawks to under 30 points
    The Seahawks have averaged 50 points a game over the last three weeks. No team can keep that up, let alone one whose strength is defense, not offense. "

    I suppose if his angle is that that defense and special teams will likely simmer down on the scoring and big plays, this may be true.
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  • This was his pick last week? didn't pick either team as far as I could tell.

    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nfl/ne ... index.html


    "3. Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson and 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick will combine for less than 500 passing yards
    As well as Wilson and Kaepernick have played lately, this will be a different kind of game for both quarterbacks. San Francisco and Seattle rank No. 2 and No. 3, respectively, in defense, and this contest will be all about ball control. Both quarterbacks may have to try to win this game with their legs and not their arms."
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    My vague pick this week is ... some team may score less than 100 pts , the other team will most likely not win . -Uffda
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  • Uffda wrote:This was his pick last week? didn't pick either team as far as I could tell.

    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nfl/ne ... index.html


    "3. Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson and 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick will combine for less than 500 passing yards
    As well as Wilson and Kaepernick have played lately, this will be a different kind of game for both quarterbacks. San Francisco and Seattle rank No. 2 and No. 3, respectively, in defense, and this contest will be all about ball control. Both quarterbacks may have to try to win this game with their legs and not their arms."
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    My vague pick this week is ... some team may score less than 100 pts , the other team will most likely not win . -Uffda

    Likely more than 2 points scored in this one.
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  • ivotuk wrote:I disagree with his prediction but everyone is entitled to their opinion. :D

    "8. The Rams hold the Seahawks to under 30 points
    The Seahawks have averaged 50 points a game over the last three weeks. No team can keep that up, let alone one whose strength is defense, not offense. All season long, quarterback Russell Wilson and the 'Hawks have been defying expectations, but at some point this torrid pace has to slow down. It's probably best for the Seahawks if they cool off just a little headed into the postseason just to remind them this game isn't as easy as they've made it look."


    Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nfl/ne ... z2GODrycC1



    Yeah yeah yeah and the 49ers never give up more than 13.. ok.
    Rams are a good defensive team, but they are not Seahawk good.
    Who says we can't keep up 50 pts/game pace? Well, we probably can't but the fact is, the best defense Hawks can do is a good offense on the field, scoring pts.
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    Bobblehead
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  • With a .42 winning percentage, this guy's a real gem. If you take a look at a lot of the other "picks" he lists, and figure he continues the trend, there's a good chance he's wrong on the 'Hawks.

    1. Vikings running back Adrian Peterson breaks 2,000-yard mark, but doesn't break Eric Dickerson's record


    So, he predicts Peterson to gather yet another 100-yard plus game (in a game he's really motivated to run in) and yet not get more than 208 yards? Safer than safe. 200+ yard games are pretty damn uncommon, even for a guy like AP. And they're playing a pretty good playoff-caliber team, who is playing for a first-round bye.

    2. Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo throws for at least 275 yards against the Redskins


    Let's see, Tony Romo throws for under three hundred yards (or more) in a division game where the division title is the stakes? In a game where he's going to have to put up some serious numbers to keep up with the opponent scoring? Heh. That's like predicting at least 50,000 people will show up to watch the game.

    3. The Redskins run for at least 125 yards against the Cowboys


    The Redskins, with the league's number one rushing offense, will rush for at least a buck and a quarter in a division game where the division title is the stakes? Wow. Way to go out on a limb here, pall.

    This is comedy gold. This guy makes picks like a student driver taking the final driving test. Doing the speed limit minus one? Check. Blinker on 500 yards before the turn? Check. Look both ways? Check. Glance in the rear view mirror? Check. And then he runs over the curb on the turn and scrapes a parked car for the fail.
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