Football outsiders is one site almost every NFL fan respects. Its not only nerds crunching numbers, but its Football Nerds crunching Numbers.

Last April Football Outsiders compiled the numbers, known as the Lewin Career forecast, to let the numbers project the success of this years Rookie Crop. However, this normally unbiased site could not let the numbers speak for themselves, and if you read the article (links below), you will discover a list, from highest to lowest, starting with Griffin, then Luck, and ending with Brock Osweiler, before Russell Wilson appears, but with an asterisk next to his name and a score higher then RG3...

It is here that normally cold hard statistics are desperately being tried to explain away.

After this article, another Football Outsiders article, called the Asterisk came shortly after that.

The Asterisk

Lewin Career Forecast

This is just a reminder that Number Crunching Nerds should trust their results instead of trying to eyeball things (actually mentions his height as a factor of relevance).

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It is asteri-s-k, my brother, madbohem.

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"Some people here have been groomed to accept mediocrity and lame ducks, I'm on board with the vibrato!" -SouthSoundHawk

Another issue they brought up which was actually a bigger factor was that they didn't think he would be picked in the first 3 rounds and Lewin is only really supposed to be for guys that go in the 3rd or higher.

That article has been linked here probably at least 5 times now, most recently about a week ago. I will say though, Wilson and RG3 are making the Lewin career forecast system look incredible this season.

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"I believe there’s merit to the idea that once something in life becomes conventional, it’s no longer the safest path to success." -Matt Waldman
"If everyone's thinking alike, no one's thinking." -Bill Walsh

Yeah, I think the moral of the story here is trust your tool.

thanks editted

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I was tweeting at Davis Hsu about this not so long ago. I find it absolutely bizarre that the FBO guys just wrote off Russell Wilson and dismissed his score entirely. To me, that was just them essentially displaying zero faith in their own statistical model as they abandoned it when it came in conflict with the general consensus about quarterbacks that morons like Kiper clung to when entirely dismissing Russell as a prospect. Seems like they only like that indicator as something that looks correct when analyzing already established quarterbacks, but they clearly don't have the confidence in their numbers to defend its forecasts against any scrutiny.

Well said. I always thought their "asterisk" was a thinly veiled excuse to gain conformity with the draftnik community.

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"I believe there’s merit to the idea that once something in life becomes conventional, it’s no longer the safest path to success." -Matt Waldman
"If everyone's thinking alike, no one's thinking." -Bill Walsh

I buy their explanation. It is very unusual for a QB to go from one school to another for his senior year and then be a top prospect. I can think of a few but not many. So I think Wilson should get all the credit in the world for his accuracy as a senior at Wisconsin, but probably should not get so much credit for improving his accuracy. I think he probably got just a little better and we all learned that the NC State system was holding him back.

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We want the ball and we're gonna score.

Oh and by the way let's not rag on FO too much. They currently have us as the #1 team in the league and Wilson as the #4 best QB in the league on value per play (DVOA) behind Manning, Brady, and Matt Ryan.

Edit to add this link where they say that Wilson's game against Chicago was the best rookie QB game they have ever recorded. So yeah, really biased against Wilson over there.

I totally understand your point (they should have trusted their system) but he was a weird example and saying he was the best QB in the draft class did require some explanation.

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We want the ball and we're gonna score.

I've always trusted my tool.......

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Yeah but have your "partners"?






(sorry dude, too easy)

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Partners? ?? You mean I'm supposed to use my tool with someone? Damn.

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Odd Matt Ryan is #3, he has been very inconsistant this year (much closer to Romo than Brady and Manning.)

The problem with their explanation, as I read it, was that they were playing up the advantages Wilson had as an experienced QB coming into a pretty good situation, while downplaying the obstacles he faced. An experienced QB doesn't just walk into a situation and grab the reigns just because he's experienced. He hast to learn the system, gain respect, and develop chemistry.

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Instead of making a judgment on Wilson and a cop out with the "asterisk," they could have easily published their findings and said, 'We don't know how our statistic is affected by a senior transfer, but this is the number we got. Let us wait and see whether this anomaly requires further mathematical adjustment or if the formula is accurate as is.'

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Not according to Dom.



Not the thread title/subject, though.