Rush D 32nd?!

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Rush D 32nd?!
Thu Dec 20, 2012 12:23 am
  • Ok so everybody knows the bread and butter of our defense is stopping the run. Apparently according to Sando, we are 32nd (!) in the league in yards allowed per carry since the first niners game, as opposed to second in the league before. Some of this may be attributed to facing better rushers (Peterson, Gore, Spiller) but overall I think our defensive line has really regressed at stopping the run. In the beginning of the season we just crushed every run right at the line with Mebane and Big Red just dominating whatever came their way. People will talk about Wilson vs Kap as the story of the game, but the battle in the trenches will decide this one. Our D-line must regain the dominance it showed before the first game and then we can start talking about contention.
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Re: Rush D 32nd?!
Thu Dec 20, 2012 12:36 am
  • Wow not a good stat man.
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Re: Rush D 32nd?!
Thu Dec 20, 2012 12:54 am
  • if we can stop gore , i LOVE our chances.

    if we cant stop gore we will be in yet another thriller of a game
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Re: Rush D 32nd?!
Thu Dec 20, 2012 12:59 am
  • Yeah just saw that stat on Sando's blog. That is a very concerning stat for us. If we cannot contain Gore than our chances of winning go down significantly.
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Re: Rush D 32nd?!
Thu Dec 20, 2012 1:28 am
  • What the hell has gone on with our run D???
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Re: Rush D 32nd?!
Thu Dec 20, 2012 1:47 am
  • No excuses...Red Bryant is not the player he has been the last couple of games for us.
    This is partly due to the implementation of Bruce Irvin and his foot injury. Nonetheless, he IS NOT making plays like we're used to and it is a problem.

    I see us replacing Branch with a free agent or early round draft pick next year. He hasn't appeared to be a liability but stats don't lie and he hasn't made any memorable plays himself.

    This is a problem. I'm sure that we will get better here these last two games and into the playoffs, but our run d is not the dominating force it once was.
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Re: Rush D 32nd?!
Thu Dec 20, 2012 2:21 am
  • Aros wrote:What the hell has gone on with our run D???

    That's been eating the hell at me ever since the first goring by Gore.
    Seems Pete is either ignoring it or he just doesn't seem to have an answer for why we can't,,the problem will be compounded if Kaepernick takes up the slack.
    Both these guys need to have D players assigned to stopping these guys from eating up time and yards eh?
    Kaeprnick opens up a whole new can of worms for our Defense, as Smith isn't even in the same category as QB.
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Re: Rush D 32nd?!
Thu Dec 20, 2012 2:22 am
  • a lot is on the style of runners faced.. speed backs tend to have good days against em, while the power runners stall.
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Re: Rush D 32nd?!
Thu Dec 20, 2012 2:27 am
  • How can we be tops at run D to start the season and absolutely shit the bed the rest of the season?

    Something more is happening here than meets the eye test.

    We know Red's foot has been a problem. That explains a certain fall off in productivity for HIM. However, what about Branch and Mebane? Why have they declined so much in recent weeks?

    We need those three to be SOLDIERS this Sunday or we have little chance to win. Forget Wilson, Lynch, Rice, Tate...If our DLine can't step up and stop the run, we're done.
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Re: Rush D 32nd?!
Thu Dec 20, 2012 2:39 am
  • Teams aren't gonna rush you too much when your up on them by like 40 at halftime.
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Re: Rush D 32nd?!
Thu Dec 20, 2012 2:59 am
  • EastCoastHawksFan wrote:if we can stop gore , i LOVE our chances.

    if we cant stop gore we will be in yet another thriller of a game

    don't sleep on lmj though.
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Re: Rush D 32nd?!
Thu Dec 20, 2012 3:26 am
  • stupid stat. there have only been a handful of running plays in the nfl longer than the one AP put on us this year. How many of those were before week seven? When you have a longest of run of 74 yards on the books, its gonna hurt your average. You also have (if my memory is working at 5 am) some teams in the beginning of the season that pretty much went at us through the air like the boys, pack, and pats.

    we have only given up 10 more yards, and one more point than SF has all season.
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Re: Rush D 32nd?!
Thu Dec 20, 2012 4:22 am
  • NoChops wrote:stupid stat. there have only been a handful of running plays in the nfl longer than the one AP put on us this year. How many of those were before week seven? When you have a longest of run of 74 yards on the books, its gonna hurt your average. You also have (if my memory is working at 5 am) some teams in the beginning of the season that pretty much went at us through the air like the boys, pack, and pats.

    we have only given up 10 more yards, and one more point than SF has all season.

    can i get a link to that? that sounds like a sick stat.. is that just rushing D or total D?
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Re: Rush D 32nd?!
Thu Dec 20, 2012 5:00 am
  • thats total D and i got it off NFL.com
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Re: Rush D 32nd?!
Thu Dec 20, 2012 5:08 am
  • Scoring defense is all that matters.
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Re: Rush D 32nd?!
Thu Dec 20, 2012 5:14 am
  • Yes, but when are these runs coming and how many rushes are we facing?
    I'm quite happy to let teams run for 6 yards a carry if it's on 3rd and 8 every time (which a lot of the long runs we're giving up are coming on).

    We may be dead last in YPC, but when the team still ranks 10th overall in rushing defense it doesn't really matter unless your team can't defend the pass... and we do that pretty well
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Re: Rush D 32nd?!
Thu Dec 20, 2012 5:34 am
  • We're in OUR house, he's not gonna' tear it up on Sunday.
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Re: Rush D 32nd?!
Thu Dec 20, 2012 6:57 am
  • Aros wrote:We need those three to be SOLDIERS this Sunday or we have little chance to win. Forget Wilson, Lynch, Rice, Tate...If our DLine can't step up and stop the run, we're done.



    Ah, .NET.

    Two back-to-back 50+ point games and everyone's talking about an 11-5 finish and a run to the SB. One stat comes out and now "we're done."

    Outstanding.

    You all want to know what else has happened since that SF game where our run defense began to have issues?

    We've gone 5-2. The two losses came by 3 and 4 points, on last second plays, on the road. We've outscored our opponents in those 7 games by 234 to 113.

    We've held 3 of our 7 opponents under 85 yards rushing as a TEAM, and held 2 others under 136. What's the big deal about 136, you ask? It's the number of rushing yards we put up on SF in their own house.

    We've forced 18 turnovers after forcing only 9 through that SF game. Meanwhile, on offense, we've only turned the ball over 6 times versus 11 times in the 7 games through the SF game.

    But wait, there's more...

    Our last 2 games are at home. So far this season, the only team that put up more than 20 points on us at home was a Patriots team that happens to lead the league in scoring by nearly 100 points. Here are the opponent point totals for every other game we've played at home this year: 7, 12, 20, 7, 0.

    What's more, in our last 3 games (Chicago, Arizona, Buffalo), our offense has put up more than 450 yards and scored 13 TDs. Our defense has allowed 4 TDs, and only ONE of those was on the ground.

    Complain all you like about our run D, but they've only allowed 8 TDs all year on the ground. That's 6th best in the entire league. The pass D has only allowed 13 TDs all year through the air, and that's the best in the league.

    And if you need context, well here it is...

    Opponents MATTER. They do. We're not out on a field against "Random Team A" or "Random Team B" every week. These opponents have their strengths and weaknesses, and those will almost always be reflected in the results we see on the field.

    In the first 6 games, we faced the Cards, Cowboys, Packers, Rams, Panthers, and Patriots. The first three of those teams haven't been good rushing teams in years. The Rams have an aging Steven Jackson who has never done well against us. The Panthers' run game has been awful until the latter half of the season. The Pats are the only team that really dedicated themselves to the run that we stepped up and dominated. Since then, look at who we have faced. Adrian Peterson. Frank Gore. C. J. Spiller. Matt Forte. Reggie Bush.

    Peterson, Gore, and Spiller happen to be the featured backs for the 2nd, 4th, and 6th ranked rushing teams this year. It's ridiculous to expect a defense to put up similar results against Peterson and Gore as they do against Beanie Wells and Shonn Greene. But still, why is no one talking about how we held Matt Forte to almost EXACTLY the same stats that San Francisco did? Same 21 attempts, and we gave up 3 more yards (63 vs. 66). Should SF be in panic mode over their run D, too? They gave up twice as many run yards to the Rams on their own turf as we did playing in St. Louis.

    We've only really had one game where our run defense really performed poorly against an opponent that it should have handled, and that's the Miami game. And that Miami game served as a wake-up call for the team, because we haven't lost since. Plus, we've held teams to an average of under 100 yards per game since. Our YPA since the Miami game has been 4.2, which is lower than our season average.

    In the end, we've got 3 games out of 14 that really skewed our run defense stats. Two of those games were against top rushing offenses in SF and Minnesota. The third was the anomaly against Miami. In those three games, our opponents rushed 87 times for 607 yards. That's 7.0 YPA. That's 41% of the total yardage we've given up on the ground ALL SEASON in 3 games. And all three of those games are being included in Sando's stat.

    Do you know what the result is when you look at the other 5 games? Our opponents in the other 5 games ran the ball 114 times for 461 yards. That's 4.0 YPA. That average would be good for 7th in the league, and is well below the league average of 4.3.

    Now, I'm not saying that we can just ignore the SF, Minnesota, and Miami games. They happened. But what I am saying is that those three games do not DEFINE our run defense. The ugly YPA we've got as a result of those games has not spread throughout each of the games we've had since the SF game. We're not giving up massive YPA against EVERY team we face. We had 3 bad run D games out of 14. That skewed our averages. The sky is NOT falling.
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Re: Rush D 32nd?!
Thu Dec 20, 2012 7:12 am
  • Unfortunately, Wagner has been part of the problem on runs. Yes, he has a lot of tackles by he has been over-pursuing the holes and allowing RBs to get into the 2nd level for big gains.
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Re: Rush D 32nd?!
Thu Dec 20, 2012 7:29 am
  • Guys two posts up is knowledge. It really makes me think about our passing zone d that used to drive me insane, until i realized something. It may appear we give up alot of passes using the zone coverage, at times. But look at the production we have made this season. We are ranked #2 in pnts allowed per game, nobody has score more than 24 on us, we have had defensive shut outs more than once, we havent lost a game by more than 7, and every game has been down to the wire and decided by a play or two. If we dont get the lombardi this year ... Its right around the corner.
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Re: Rush D 32nd?!
Thu Dec 20, 2012 7:32 am
  • Nice post Volsung and thanks for the time you spent researching this. Makes me feel quite a bit better than I did after reading that Sando article.
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Re: Rush D 32nd?!
Thu Dec 20, 2012 8:00 am
  • I wouldn't be too worried about the run game this weekend if it wasn't for the fact that the first back to really take it to us is also the back we are facing this weekend. Compound that with Kapernick being no slouch of a running QB and this weekend could be a nightmare for us.
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Re: Rush D 32nd?!
Thu Dec 20, 2012 8:06 am
  • Volsung's post pretty much nailed it.

    Also, we have a pretty young linebacking crew. The middle of the field was definitely a weakness over the middle of the season, but I'm confident the coaches are working to correct the issue. We'll know more on Sunday night.
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Re: Rush D 32nd?!
Thu Dec 20, 2012 8:09 am
  • Something else everyone forgets is that we were forced by injury to play a backup LB against Adrian Peterson. Despite general impressions otherwise here on .Net, Mike Morgan had a terrible first half against the Vikings, overpursuing and blowing assignments against the worst possible opponent, and that's not an indictment on our overall defense. That one long run by AP accounts for 0.4 YPC in that stat.

    For another angle, here is our YPC allowed since the 49ers contest:

    3.8 (DET)
    9.0 (MIN)
    3.8 (NYJ)
    6.8 (MIA)
    4.0 (CHI)
    2.7 (ARI)
    5.6 (BUF)

    Two of the three worst stats in that list (MIN and BUF) are games we won handily, one of them a blowout. The other (MIA) is a game we didn't lose because of run defense. So while the YPC stat is a bit embarrassing on the surface, it hasn't really affected the season that much.
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Re: Rush D 32nd?!
Thu Dec 20, 2012 9:51 am
  • volsunghawk wrote:
    Aros wrote:We need those three to be SOLDIERS this Sunday or we have little chance to win. Forget Wilson, Lynch, Rice, Tate...If our DLine can't step up and stop the run, we're done.



    Ah, .NET.

    Two back-to-back 50+ point games and everyone's talking about an 11-5 finish and a run to the SB. One stat comes out and now "we're done."

    Outstanding.

    You all want to know what else has happened since that SF game where our run defense began to have issues?

    We've gone 5-2. The two losses came by 3 and 4 points, on last second plays, on the road. We've outscored our opponents in those 7 games by 234 to 113.

    We've held 3 of our 7 opponents under 85 yards rushing as a TEAM, and held 2 others under 136. What's the big deal about 136, you ask? It's the number of rushing yards we put up on SF in their own house.

    We've forced 18 turnovers after forcing only 9 through that SF game. Meanwhile, on offense, we've only turned the ball over 6 times versus 11 times in the 7 games through the SF game.

    But wait, there's more...

    Our last 2 games are at home. So far this season, the only team that put up more than 20 points on us at home was a Patriots team that happens to lead the league in scoring by nearly 100 points. Here are the opponent point totals for every other game we've played at home this year: 7, 12, 20, 7, 0.

    What's more, in our last 3 games (Chicago, Arizona, Buffalo), our offense has put up more than 450 yards and scored 13 TDs. Our defense has allowed 4 TDs, and only ONE of those was on the ground.

    Complain all you like about our run D, but they've only allowed 8 TDs all year on the ground. That's 6th best in the entire league. The pass D has only allowed 13 TDs all year through the air, and that's the best in the league.

    And if you need context, well here it is...

    Opponents MATTER. They do. We're not out on a field against "Random Team A" or "Random Team B" every week. These opponents have their strengths and weaknesses, and those will almost always be reflected in the results we see on the field.

    In the first 6 games, we faced the Cards, Cowboys, Packers, Rams, Panthers, and Patriots. The first three of those teams haven't been good rushing teams in years. The Rams have an aging Steven Jackson who has never done well against us. The Panthers' run game has been awful until the latter half of the season. The Pats are the only team that really dedicated themselves to the run that we stepped up and dominated. Since then, look at who we have faced. Adrian Peterson. Frank Gore. C. J. Spiller. Matt Forte. Reggie Bush.

    Peterson, Gore, and Spiller happen to be the featured backs for the 2nd, 4th, and 6th ranked rushing teams this year. It's ridiculous to expect a defense to put up similar results against Peterson and Gore as they do against Beanie Wells and Shonn Greene. But still, why is no one talking about how we held Matt Forte to almost EXACTLY the same stats that San Francisco did? Same 21 attempts, and we gave up 3 more yards (63 vs. 66). Should SF be in panic mode over their run D, too? They gave up twice as many run yards to the Rams on their own turf as we did playing in St. Louis.

    We've only really had one game where our run defense really performed poorly against an opponent that it should have handled, and that's the Miami game. And that Miami game served as a wake-up call for the team, because we haven't lost since. Plus, we've held teams to an average of under 100 yards per game since. Our YPA since the Miami game has been 4.2, which is lower than our season average.

    In the end, we've got 3 games out of 14 that really skewed our run defense stats. Two of those games were against top rushing offenses in SF and Minnesota. The third was the anomaly against Miami. In those three games, our opponents rushed 87 times for 607 yards. That's 7.0 YPA. That's 41% of the total yardage we've given up on the ground ALL SEASON in 3 games. And all three of those games are being included in Sando's stat.

    Do you know what the result is when you look at the other 5 games? Our opponents in the other 5 games ran the ball 114 times for 461 yards. That's 4.0 YPA. That average would be good for 7th in the league, and is well below the league average of 4.3.

    Now, I'm not saying that we can just ignore the SF, Minnesota, and Miami games. They happened. But what I am saying is that those three games do not DEFINE our run defense. The ugly YPA we've got as a result of those games has not spread throughout each of the games we've had since the SF game. We're not giving up massive YPA against EVERY team we face. We had 3 bad run D games out of 14. That skewed our averages. The sky is NOT falling.

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Re: Rush D 32nd?!
Thu Dec 20, 2012 10:03 am
  • Aros wrote:How can we be tops at run D to start the season and absolutely shit the bed the rest of the season?


    Cause we played the Cards, Cowboys, Packers, Rams, Panthers and Pats the first six games of the season..............all mediocre to bad running teams.

    SF exposed our poor gap control issues. It's been tightened up a little since, but even Spiller gashed us for big runs. So the gap control problems are still there.......which means expect lots and lots of Gore Sunday night.
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Re: Rush D 32nd?!
Thu Dec 20, 2012 10:39 am
  • Nice post, volsung. Great perspective.
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Re: Rush D 32nd?!
Thu Dec 20, 2012 10:44 am
  • I agree, nice post volsung, but unfortunately it doesn't make me fear Gore any less Sunday. If Gore has a typical game against the Seahawks it will be a long day.
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Re: Rush D 32nd?!
Thu Dec 20, 2012 10:52 am
  • Aros wrote:I agree, nice post volsung, but unfortunately it doesn't make me fear Gore any less Sunday. If Gore has a typical game against the Seahawks it will be a long day.


    Okay, so what qualifies as typical, then?

    Would it be his 131 yard game that he had earlier this year in SF?

    Would it be the 83 yard game he had against us late last season in Seattle?

    Or the 59, 38, or 25 yard games he had against us the previous 3 times we faced him?

    Make no mistake. Gore has been up-and-down against us his entire career. It hasn't always been monster games, even though it seemed that way early in his career.

    And his recent performances haven't been all that stellar, either. Yeah, he had a big game against us. And then he dropped off the face of the map, really. Since he faced us last, he has 4 TDs in 7 games (3 rushing, 1 receiving), and has been held under his season average YPA in 6 of those 7 games.

    Gore is not to be feared. He is to be stopped, and it will happen on Sunday night.
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Re: Rush D 32nd?!
Thu Dec 20, 2012 10:58 am
  • Oh shut up with your sound logic and facts, would you? :P

    Man that surprises me (no not my laziness to dig up the stats myself, that's totally me), I would have sworn Gore has gone over a Benji in every stinkin' game with us over the past three years.

    I guess it just feels that way.

    Thanks. I do feel a bit more confident then.
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Re: Rush D 32nd?!
Thu Dec 20, 2012 11:26 am
  • Aros wrote:Oh shut up with your sound logic and facts, would you? :P

    Man that surprises me (no not my laziness to dig up the stats myself, that's totally me), I would have sworn Gore has gone over a Benji in every stinkin' game with us over the past three years.

    I guess it just feels that way.

    Thanks. I do feel a bit more confident then.


    Good! :mrgreen:

    We need you amped, ready to make Gore's eardrums bleed... not going in there worrying about what he's gonna do!

    If you need more help feeling confident, consider that the 49ers have played back-to-back road games twice already this season. They are 1-1 in both of those pairs. They got the one win against NE. They're getting the loss against us.
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Re: Rush D 32nd?!
Thu Dec 20, 2012 11:29 am
  • I'm in!
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Re: Rush D 32nd?!
Thu Dec 20, 2012 11:33 am
  • volsunghawk wrote:Gore is not to be feared. He is to be stopped, and it will happen on Sunday night.


    I don't think the Hawks D fears anybody.......but they certainly respect Gore and the 49'er O-Line.

    But make no mistake, this is going to to HAVE to be our front seven's best game of the year for us to win Sunday night. You know Harbaugh's game plan to deal with the crowd/not make mistakes is to run, run and run some more. Even more so now that our interior line is super thin with no Jones and maybe Branch.

    Bradley and Carroll may have no choice but to bring Cam down into the box to stuff those gaps if we're getting gashed early.
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Re: Rush D 32nd?!
Thu Dec 20, 2012 11:46 am
  • No doubt, they flat out need to bring their A+ game, w/out it, we lose, plain and simple.
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Re: Rush D 32nd?!
Thu Dec 20, 2012 1:26 pm
  • FargoHawk wrote:Unfortunately, Wagner has been part of the problem on runs. Yes, he has a lot of tackles by he has been over-pursuing the holes and allowing RBs to get into the 2nd level for big gains.



    Shades of Isaiah Kasivinsky

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Re: Rush D 32nd?!
Thu Dec 20, 2012 1:30 pm
  • Gore can be controlled. Kaepernick and LaMicheal James could really gash us though. (cue Pehawk...)
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Re: Rush D 32nd?!
Thu Dec 20, 2012 2:00 pm
  • The other perspective we've forgotten to look at is how defenses have fared against SF's rushing attack in their LOSSES.

    Minn: 89 yards, 4.5 ypc
    NY: 80 yards, 4.7 ypc
    SL: 148 yards, 4.1 ypc

    The only 3 teams that have beaten SF have fared above average against the run in those games, around 4.4 ypc on average. We are currently giving up 5.3 ypc. Sure, we did well against some crappy teams like Arizona and NY, but we're not playing them this Sunday, we're playing SF, the second best rushing offense in the league. In our first meeting against SF we gave up 175 yards rushing at 5.5 ypc.

    No doubt the offense is playing exceptionally well and may be able to offset our rush defense deficiencies, but it would be ignorant to say that our rush defense won't be a factor on Sunday in determining whether we win or not. I think it's perfectly justified to be concerned about it.
    kmedic
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Re: Rush D 32nd?!
Thu Dec 20, 2012 2:11 pm
  • Great posts, good discussion!

    Hawks have the guns to hang in this type of contest, as Volsung said, it's the type of teams we have faced...

    San Fran also has very similar results against common opponents, so the perspective can be skewed by Sando's stats.

    This will play out in the Hawks favor, and if they get a lead on San Fran, watch out!
    Waiting to place an order for Seahulk arms.
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    JrockRichards
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Re: Rush D 32nd?!
Thu Dec 20, 2012 2:19 pm
  • JrockRichards wrote:
    This will play out in the Hawks favor, and if they get a lead on San Fran, watch out!


    See this is where I think Kaepernick > Smith. Kaepernick's much more of a dynamic QB that can make plays and throw down field to come from behind than Smith.

    IMO this game will be no different than any of the previous four with these two teams, it'll come down to special teams plays and mistakes. Also field position played a big part in the first 49'er game this year. I think we started like 10 drives inside our own 20? Not good against a great defense.
    If there is no Seahawk football in heaven, then we will never die.
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    Sgt. Largent
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Re: Rush D 32nd?!
Thu Dec 20, 2012 3:42 pm
  • Ok so it does make me feel a bit better. But I still feel our D-line is not the same. I just can't seem to forget the picture of our guys blowing up plays in the backfield every time in the beginning of the season. It just hasn't happened the last couple of games.
    One thing that the three games that screw up our stats have in common is that they were against top O-lines with the Niners' probably being the best in the league. I still don't feel safe about our D-line facing top competition.
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    roiyair
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Re: Rush D 32nd?!
Thu Dec 20, 2012 5:33 pm
  • Volsunghawk you posts are timely and bring the reality of this negativity about the run game into focus. The Hawks are simply not giving up the splash plays except in a few rare cases while generally keeping the ball in front of them. i can live with the run numbers but would like to see an improvement in the D's 3rd down allowed conversion %. The D is playing well and is taking the ball away at a higher rate than earlier as well.
    Until we develop a pass rush that will cause opposing teams to be forced to scheme to defend it we will never be able to completely take the final step. That was done and the final step was taken.

    Super Bowl XLVIII Champions at last after 38 seasons.

    What a special magical year!
    jammerhawk
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Re: Rush D 32nd?!
Thu Dec 20, 2012 7:25 pm
  • VOLSUNG FOR PRESIDENT!!!
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    dunceface
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