Fantasydouche.com: Russell Wilson NFL's most valuable player

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  • He's right even if his methodology is flawed. Unfortunately there is no stat like WAR (wins above replacement in baseball) for the NFL. Stacking up WPA doesn't really work because it's such a context heavy stat. WPA is a useless stat by the way. You could have a poor game but throw a game winning TD pass and finish with a stellar WPA that day. Over at lookoutlanding.com (a great mariners blog) they track a similar stat to WPA after every game and name the "biggest contributor" and "biggest suckfest." It's all tongue in cheek of course- the best performer that day is only the highest in WPA very rarely, since plays near the end of games and in close scores are weighed much much much more. A guy who goes 4-4 often finishes lower than a guy who went 1-4 with a timely hit or timely defensive play.

    It's also a stat that heavily favors players on teams that rarely lose games. Every win is +.5 WPA overall for the winning team and -.5 WPA overall for the losing team. That's how Matt Ryan is running away with the lead on his chart despite being behind several other QBs in his passing statistics. It's not a surprise then than Wilson's ranking in this system is very similar to his team's record in the standings (9 teams currently have 9 wins or more).

    Andrew Luck has a very high score on that chart- which makes sense because he's had a lot of comeback wins late and the Colts have pretty much run everything through him. With Wilson, he's destroying teams in the first half and the Seahawks go run heavy in the 2nd half (where WPA values have the highest potential). Wilson is sharing his WPA with his RBs and his defense. I guess it makes sense that Luck would be much higher- but it also perfectly illustrates why this stat shouldn't be taken seriously. It means about as much as putting stars on player's helmets in college.

    That said, only Nick Foles and Kirk Cousins have started games this season while playing on a contract smaller than Wilson's, and obviously they have provided far less value to their teams than Wilson has. These next couple years are going to be key for the Seahawks as they get to take advantage of a very high number of good players on bargain rookie contracts.
    Last edited by kearly on Fri Dec 21, 2012 3:02 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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    kearly
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  • Kearly,

    When do you think we will start resigning our own guys? Thomas, Sherman, Okung, and Wilson all are gonna take some pretty big deals and there is pretty much no way we let them leave. I'd like to see them get a head start instead of trying to do it all at once, I wanna see a Thomas extension this offseason.

    It's pretty awesome that our big time free agent pick ups the next few years are gonna be re signing our own guys because they are actually at the top of the FA market.
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    amill87
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  • I think Thomas and Okung are too scheme critical to let go. Sadly, I could see Sherman, Chancellor, and especially Browner walking. I really hope I am wrong on Sherman, but Sherman will cost a fortune to keep and he plays an area where Seattle has a ton of confidence in during the draft.

    Thankfully, players tend to sign slightly cheaper deals for their original teams. Pete Carroll has built a family atmosphere in that locker room. Red Bryant could have made just as much money playing for the Patriots. He stayed. That says a lot. It's going to take a lot of money to wriggle some of these players away from us.

    Sadly, some of them will have to go. I agree that Seattle should extend Thomas early if there is still room in the 2013 budget. I don't really anticipate Thomas being a big money free agent. His numbers haven't been all that great and his reputation has been muted by playing in the NW. Then again, you could say the exact same thing about Red Bryant and Seattle was caught by surprise seeing how many teams were making him BIG offers. So we'll see.

    Thankfully we don't have to worry about giving Wilson his $20 million per season contract until 2016.
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    kearly
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  • amill -- remember under the new CBA the guys can't re-sign for the first three years. Some of them have four year contracts so you could potentially play them the fourth year under the rookie contract but I would guess that most of them would sit out rather than play for a few hundred thousand. Lets face it they won't be loosing "much" by sitting out

    The big risk in my mind is going to be in front-loading other players contract now. So in case of Lynch you just paid him big money but would you benefit by resigning him now paying him even more up front and way less the last few years. You got to do this with players that have enough of a memory to remember that signing bonus in two years and not play the "I am only making $500K this year" and completely ignores the $10 million signing bonus.

    This is the only way to free up some money for the new contracts. Of course with the new CBA the ability to continue to get great players out of the draft from not only the first round but also 2nd, 3rd and 4th round cannot be overvalued. It is a huge thing if you can get 2 starters from each draft class playing for the $500-$700K / season. Potentially you have 6-8 players in year 1 through 3 of their contract and are only spending $6-$8 million on them......

    Which by the way puts trading a Sherman / Browner for draft picks in a different light. Do you pay them $10 million / year or do you draft a new guy that will play for a 10th of the money and frees up that money for some other veteran.....
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  • kearly wrote:I think Thomas and Okung are too scheme critical to let go. Sadly, I could see Sherman, Chancellor, and especially Browner walking. I really hope I am wrong on Sherman, but Sherman will cost a fortune to keep and he plays an area where Seattle has a ton of confidence in during the draft.

    Thankfully, players tend to sign slightly cheaper deals for their original teams. Pete Carroll has built a family atmosphere in that locker room. Red Bryant could have made just as much money playing for the Patriots. He stayed. That says a lot. It's going to take a lot of money to wriggle some of these players away from us.

    Sadly, some of them will have to go. I agree that Seattle should extend Thomas early if there is still room in the 2013 budget. I don't really anticipate Thomas being a big money free agent. His numbers haven't been all that great and his reputation has been muted by playing in the NW. Then again, you could say the exact same thing about Red Bryant and Seattle was caught by surprise seeing how many teams were making him BIG offers. So we'll see.

    Thankfully we don't have to worry about giving Wilson his $20 million per season contract until 2016.


    Quite frankly I think Thomas is going to be quite a big money FA. By then, he will have plenty of notoriety with some pro bowl seasons, and one of the great reasons that are defense is so great is that so many are tweeners, and therefore their value is only maximized here, where if they were somewhere else they would be situational (Clemons). I kinda see Sherman in that category, as he is tall and doesn't have a whole lot of speed, and is probably supported by Thomas a lot. I think Thomas, on the other hand, will command a ton of money, as he will fit most teams schemes. There is a reason Thomas was a first rounder while Sherman was only a 5th rounder, and while Sherman has outperformed his 5th round status and what teams expected of him, Thomas has also done just as was expected of him for the 14th pick, and assuming other teams wanted him then, in the draft, they will definitely want him now that he is a more polished pro with a pro bowl(s) in his resume. That's why I think Thomas will have a ton of demand.

    I also remember Browner saying somewhere he wanted to stay a Seahawk for his whole career, because they were the only team that gave him a chance.

    Anyways, I still think we must retain Thomas and Okung, as they are the guys who are plain and simple not tweeners or castaways. They are the people who would always be in high demand, and therefore were nabbed with the highest picks we have ever had.

    Most of all the rest of our guys, our just weird, but we make them fit. Russell Wilson (you know why), Chancellor, Browner, KJ, Bryant, Clemons, ect.

    I am also not sure Wilson will command 20 Mil per year. If we were to pay him that much, other teams would have to be willing to pay him near that much, as I don't see Wilson as a D-bag who won't play until he gets more money. Other teams hopefully will still be wary of a QB's height by the time Wilsons deal is up, or maybe not wanting to tailor their scheme around a shorter QB. Then again, I don't doubt a team built like the Eagles are now would shell out a ton of cash for Wilson.

    Hopefully we'll just keep restocking through the draft.
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    hawksfan515
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