Wilson vs. Kaep straight up.... who do you take?

The Essential Online Seahawks Fan Forum Community. There simply is NO substitute. RATING: PG-13

Wilson or Kaepernick?

Wilson
181
92%
Kaepernick
16
8%
 
Total votes : 197

  • Niner fans have a distinct handicap in using numbers to say whether Kaepernick is better than Wilson; all the numbers say that Alex Smith should be the starter in San Fran.
    SEAHAWKS.NET. We All We Got, We All We Need
    User avatar
    Scottemojo
    *Scott of Smacksville*
    *Scott of Smacksville*
     
    Posts: 10766
    Joined: Thu Apr 30, 2009 9:14 am


  • RolandDeschain wrote:Kaepernick is taking twice as many sacks and is fumbling the football FIVE TIMES MORE than Wilson. Those are the two really telling ones. Even if you completely remove his 4 fumbles @ Foxboro, he's fumbling quite a bit more per game than Wilson, and I'm including every game for Wilson in that average.

    If Kaepernick keeps fumbling and taking sacks (the latter one points to better athleticism/pocket presence by Wilson, IMO) the way he has been, he's never going to be a great QB.


    Where exactly are you getting your stats from anyway? Wilson has been sacked 11 times in his last 5 games and Kaepernick has been sacked 10 times. This is the second thread I've seen on this board in the last day where Wilson has make believe numbers out of thin air to make him look better than he is and to make Kaepernick look worse.

    This is silly that I actually have to fact check the stats you guys throw out because some of you are so dishonest with numbers and facts.
    User avatar
    Disp
    NET Rookie
     
    Posts: 171
    Joined: Fri Jan 27, 2012 5:43 pm


  • Disp wrote:Where exactly are you getting your stats from anyway? Wilson has been sacked 11 times in his last 5 games and Kaepernick has been sacked 10 times. This is the second thread I've seen on this board in the last day where Wilson has make believe numbers out of thin air to make him look better than he is and to make Kaepernick look worse.

    This is silly that I actually have to fact check the stats you guys throw out because some of you are so dishonest with numbers and facts.


    NFL.com. Where are you getting yours from?

    http://www.nfl.com/player/russellwilson/2532975/profile
    http://www.nfl.com/player/colinkaeperni ... 86/profile

    Wilson has 26 in 14 games, which is 1.85 sacks per game. Kaepernick has 14 in 5 games, which is 2.80 sacks per game. That's a pretty big sack-per-game differential, don't you think? 33% more sacks for Kaepernick, to be precise.

    Looks like you're the one with the make-believe numbers on this board; or you're using some selective metric somewhere, perhaps.
    Image
    "VICTORYYYYYYY!" -Johnny Drama
    User avatar
    RolandDeschain
    *NET FCC Liaison*
     
    Posts: 24766
    Joined: Fri May 01, 2009 8:39 am
    Location: Kirkland, WA


  • Here's a hint: Add up the sacks from Kaepernick's last 5 games.

    I'll help:
    Kaepernick
    NE = 2
    Mia= 4
    STL=3
    NO=0
    CHI=1
    Total=10


    Wilson:
    Buffalo=2
    Ari=1
    Chi=2
    Mia=2
    NY=4
    Total=11
    Last edited by Disp on Wed Dec 19, 2012 1:57 pm, edited 3 times in total.
    User avatar
    Disp
    NET Rookie
     
    Posts: 171
    Joined: Fri Jan 27, 2012 5:43 pm


  • Actually, scratch that, 2 of his sacks were in a game where he wasn't the starter; so the math is 14 in 6 games, technically, though he didn't play a full game. We'll give him the benefit of lowering his sack rate and assuming 6 full games, though. 2.33 sacks per game, differential of 21%.
    Image
    "VICTORYYYYYYY!" -Johnny Drama
    User avatar
    RolandDeschain
    *NET FCC Liaison*
     
    Posts: 24766
    Joined: Fri May 01, 2009 8:39 am
    Location: Kirkland, WA


  • Disp wrote:Here's a hint: Add up the sacks from Kaepernick's last 5 games.


    Here's a hint: When you're playing an NFL game, sacks still count even if you weren't the named starter for that game.

    Another hint: Don't try to use perceived technicalities to avoid the other issue in this discussion regarding Kaepernick, which is fumbles.
    Image
    "VICTORYYYYYYY!" -Johnny Drama
    User avatar
    RolandDeschain
    *NET FCC Liaison*
     
    Posts: 24766
    Joined: Fri May 01, 2009 8:39 am
    Location: Kirkland, WA


  • Ok let's compare their last 6 games:

    Wilson = 12
    Kaepernick = 13

    You're right. Looking at the stats, Kaepernick is indeed taking double the sacks Wilson is.

    RolandDeschain wrote:Another hint: Don't try to use perceived technicalities to avoid the other issue in this discussion regarding Kaepernick, which is fumbles.


    Perceived technicalities? Your entire argument was founded on you doing first grade addition wrong to suit your point.
    Last edited by Disp on Wed Dec 19, 2012 1:53 pm, edited 2 times in total.
    User avatar
    Disp
    NET Rookie
     
    Posts: 171
    Joined: Fri Jan 27, 2012 5:43 pm


  • Wilson's taking more sacks as of late, which I want to see stop. No doubt about that. You're using it to pump up Kaepernick's stats, though. Whatever, ignore the sack thing if you want, you can cherry-pick sets of games all you want but for QBs that actually earned their starting spots, you use their year-to-date stats for an overall accurate representation. The good and the bad.
    Image
    "VICTORYYYYYYY!" -Johnny Drama
    User avatar
    RolandDeschain
    *NET FCC Liaison*
     
    Posts: 24766
    Joined: Fri May 01, 2009 8:39 am
    Location: Kirkland, WA


  • RolandDeschain wrote:Wilson's taking more sacks as of late, which I want to see stop. No doubt about that. You're using it to pump up Kaepernick's stats, though. Whatever, ignore the sack thing if you want, you can cherry-pick sets of games all you want but for QBs that actually earned their starting spots, you use their year-to-date stats for an overall accurate representation. The good and the bad.


    I'm using your criteria that you guys cherry picked; Wilson's last 6 games. If you want to use Wilson's season-long sack rate then why won't you use his season long completion % or yards per attempt? Or are those irrelevant to you because they don't look as good?
    User avatar
    Disp
    NET Rookie
     
    Posts: 171
    Joined: Fri Jan 27, 2012 5:43 pm


  • RolandDeschain wrote:It surprises me that so many 49ers fans claim Kaepernick's sack & fumble numbers don't matter...


    Well, unfortunately, your stats are incorrect. You are claiming 1.8 fumbles per game based upon dividing his entire season's fumbles by his 5 games started. Kaepernick had 9 fumbles throughout the entire season, but 3 of those were in games he was not the starter.

    If we are throwing out the NE game with 4 bad QB-Center exchanges, as you said, Kaep would have 2 fumbles in 4 starts, or 5 in 13 games.

    Kaeprenick has fewer INT's per game during those first 5 starts than Wilson (over Wilson's first five or the entire season, either way).

    So, essentially, Kaepernick has fumbled more per game (but fewer of those fumbles have been lost) and Wilson has thrown more picks.
    manders2600
    NET Rookie
     
    Posts: 203
    Joined: Thu Oct 27, 2011 12:50 pm


  • Let's just add up the quarters each one played, then; since Wilson was pulled halfway through one game, and 3/4ths of the way through another, and Kaepernick had two partial games as well.
    Image
    "VICTORYYYYYYY!" -Johnny Drama
    User avatar
    RolandDeschain
    *NET FCC Liaison*
     
    Posts: 24766
    Joined: Fri May 01, 2009 8:39 am
    Location: Kirkland, WA


  • RolandDeschain wrote:Let's just add up the quarters each one played, then; since Wilson was pulled halfway through one game, and 3/4ths of the way through another, and Kaepernick had two partial games as well.


    It's still a bit misleading, as Kaepernick was used for wildcat/option plays earlier in the season. So, you can look at the NYG game, and say "Wow, Kaepernick was sacked twice", but the reality is that he was only called in for a couple of running plays that weren't successful.
    manders2600
    NET Rookie
     
    Posts: 203
    Joined: Thu Oct 27, 2011 12:50 pm


  • These are all averages, not totals.

    Russell Averages (full season):

    16 pass completions
    25 pass attempts
    62.4% completion rate
    193 yards
    7.86 per pass
    1.5 passing TDs
    0.64 interceptions
    1.9 sacks
    11.5 sack yards
    96.6 rating
    5.6 rush attempts
    29 rush yards
    5.23 yards average
    0 rush TDs
    0.36 fumbles
    0.2 lost fumbles


    Russell Averages (last 5 games):

    15 pass completions
    24 pass attempts
    63.6% completion rate
    212 yards
    9.28 per pass
    1.6 passing TDs
    0.2 interceptions
    2.2 sacks
    0 sack yards
    110.8 rating
    6.6 rush attempts
    49 rush yards
    6.92 yards average
    1 rush TDs
    0.4 fumbles
    0.2 lost fumbles

    Kaep Averages (5 games started):

    17 pass completions
    26 pass attempts
    66.7% completion rate
    217 yards
    8.58 per pass
    1.4 passing TDs
    0.4 interceptions
    1.8 sacks
    11.2 sack yards
    103.1 rating
    6.4 rush attempts
    40 rush yards
    5.82 yards average
    0 rush TDs
    2 fumbles
    0.3 lost fumbles
    Help bring peace to the South LA / Puget Sound communities. Are you in?
    http://www.abetterla.org | http://www.abetterseattle.com
    User avatar
    sc85sis
    *SILVER SUPPORTER*
    *SILVER SUPPORTER*
     
    Posts: 4678
    Joined: Wed Jan 13, 2010 1:40 am
    Location: Southern CA


  • manders2600 wrote:It's still a bit misleading, as Kaepernick was used for wildcat/option plays earlier in the season. So, you can look at the NYG game, and say "Wow, Kaepernick was sacked twice", but the reality is that he was only called in for a couple of running plays that weren't successful.

    If he had 2 sacks on 2 plays and wasn't the only QB on the field, I'd be willing to discount them. Despite what Disp thinks about me, I'm being reasonable about it. Call sack average on the year a wash, then. We'll focus on the fumbles, which are more important, anyways.
    Image
    "VICTORYYYYYYY!" -Johnny Drama
    User avatar
    RolandDeschain
    *NET FCC Liaison*
     
    Posts: 24766
    Joined: Fri May 01, 2009 8:39 am
    Location: Kirkland, WA


  • this is soo easy, Wilson plays for the Hawks, Kapp plays for?????

    no brainer
    GO HAWKS!!!
    User avatar
    Twisted
    NET Veteran
     
    Posts: 1554
    Joined: Sun Oct 31, 2010 6:29 pm


  • sc85sis wrote:These are all averages, not totals.

    Russell Averages (full season):

    16 pass completions
    25 pass attempts
    62.4% completion rate
    193 yards
    7.86 per pass
    1.5 passing TDs
    0.64 interceptions
    1.9 sacks
    11.5 sack yards
    96.6 rating
    5.6 rush attempts
    29 rush yards
    5.23 yards average
    0 rush TDs
    0.36 fumbles
    0.2 lost fumbles


    Russell Averages (last 5 games):

    15 pass completions
    24 pass attempts
    63.6% completion rate
    212 yards
    9.28 per pass
    1.6 passing TDs
    0.2 interceptions
    2.2 sacks
    0 sack yards
    110.8 rating
    6.6 rush attempts
    49 rush yards
    6.92 yards average
    1 rush TDs
    0.4 fumbles
    0.2 lost fumbles

    Kaep Averages (5 games started):

    17 pass completions
    26 pass attempts
    66.7% completion rate
    217 yards
    8.58 per pass
    1.4 passing TDs
    0.4 interceptions
    1.8 sacks
    11.2 sack yards
    103.1 rating
    6.4 rush attempts
    40 rush yards
    5.82 yards average
    0 rush TDs
    2 fumbles
    0.3 lost fumbles



    aw nevermind
    GO HAWKS!!!
    User avatar
    Twisted
    NET Veteran
     
    Posts: 1554
    Joined: Sun Oct 31, 2010 6:29 pm


  • RolandDeschain wrote:
    manders2600 wrote:It's still a bit misleading, as Kaepernick was used for wildcat/option plays earlier in the season. So, you can look at the NYG game, and say "Wow, Kaepernick was sacked twice", but the reality is that he was only called in for a couple of running plays that weren't successful.

    If he had 2 sacks on 2 plays and wasn't the only QB on the field, I'd be willing to discount them. Despite what Disp thinks about me, I'm being reasonable about it. Call sack average on the year a wash, then. We'll focus on the fumbles, which are more important, anyways.


    And, in that case, whether you look at season totals or just the first five starts of each QB, Kaepernick has fumbled more per game (but lost fewer of those fumbles) and Wilson throws more picks.

    Now, the sample size on this is incredibly small, so I'm not really sure you can tell anything definitively, but Wilson turns the ball over (fumbles lost and picks thrown) more than Kaepernick.
    manders2600
    NET Rookie
     
    Posts: 203
    Joined: Thu Oct 27, 2011 12:50 pm


  • Scottemojo wrote:Niner fans have a distinct handicap in using numbers to say whether Kaepernick is better than Wilson; all the numbers say that Alex Smith should be the starter in San Fran.


    Uh...no they don't.

    Kaeps average yard per COMPLETION is FAR, FAR higher than Alex and his overall numbers are comparable...which is really saying something considering Kaep has only started 5 games. Alex has also NEVER thrown 4 TDs in a game. Thier rushing statistics aren't even close.
    Marvin49
    NET Veteran
     
    Posts: 2878
    Joined: Tue Dec 18, 2012 1:34 pm


  • RolandDeschain wrote:If he had 2 sacks on 2 plays and wasn't the only QB on the field, I'd be willing to discount them. Despite what Disp thinks about me, I'm being reasonable about it. Call sack average on the year a wash, then. We'll focus on the fumbles, which are more important, anyways.


    I agree about the fumbles; they're a problem that needs to be fixed, and Wilson definitely fumbles less. Kaepernick is doing what every single QB in history, including Wilson does in their first few games, and that's either fumbling or throwing picks. You're straight up bending statistics to fit your agenda and being dishonest about it though. My point from the beginning is they're both great qb's with bright futures, and Wilson is not on a whole different tier that Kaepernick might never get to like you've been saying.
    User avatar
    Disp
    NET Rookie
     
    Posts: 171
    Joined: Fri Jan 27, 2012 5:43 pm


  • OK...I think we're getting everything twisted here about what should "count" and what should not.

    To me, it's only fair to count starts. Kaep was primarily in a run package for most of the season so it wasn't a conventional offense. There were even times that both Smith and Kaep were on the field. There were times he was sacked that were simply trick plays that didn't work and he had to eat the ball.

    He came in and played for the very first time on a real non-mop-up situation in the first Rams game. He did tho come into that game having not prepped as the starter and the team was already 10 points behind halfway through the second quarter.

    Given all that, I think it's only really fair to look at Kaeps last 5 games. All starts. We can debate all day which 5 of Wilsons starts to compare to so that's why I used both his first 5 and last 5 in my initial comparison. I think that's fair.

    As far as the sacks and INT numbers go, Kaep does take some sacks, but he actually has excaped quite a few...sacks that Alex could not escape. One of the reasons tho that he does take some sacks is that he is looking to hit the home run on every play. He takes ALOT more deep drops than Alex did and counts on his protection to hold up...and it doesn't always do so. As far as the fumbles, He has only fumbled in the last 5 games ONCE as a result of getting hit. One was the horrible pitch play that never should have been called and the rest are fumbled snaps. He needs to clean that up, no question, but that is a result of never taking a snap from center in 4 years of college football and a cold, wet ball in Foxborough. He will improve.

    COmparing Wilsons first 5 games to his last 5 show HUGE improvement. He looks like he is on his way to being a very good QB. I simply don't understand why SOME of you don't see that Kaep will imrove as well.
    Marvin49
    NET Veteran
     
    Posts: 2878
    Joined: Tue Dec 18, 2012 1:34 pm


  • Disp wrote:
    RolandDeschain wrote:If he had 2 sacks on 2 plays and wasn't the only QB on the field, I'd be willing to discount them. Despite what Disp thinks about me, I'm being reasonable about it. Call sack average on the year a wash, then. We'll focus on the fumbles, which are more important, anyways.


    I agree about the fumbles; they're a problem that needs to be fixed, and Wilson definitely fumbles less. Kaepernick is doing what every single QB in history, including Wilson does in their first few games, and that's either fumbling or throwing picks. You're straight up bending statistics to fit your agenda and being dishonest about it though. My point from the beginning is they're both great qb's with bright futures, and Wilson is not on a whole different tier that Kaepernick might never get to like you've been saying.


    Couldn't have said it better. Its like they think Wilson is Montana and Kaep is just a fad. Another poster talkes about Wilsons intangibles (which I agree he has) as if Kaep has none. The dude doesn't get nervous. Ever. He destroyed the mighty Chicago Bear D in his first career start. He played very well in his very first road game in the freakin Superdome. He went to Foxborough and calmly threw 4 TDs in December where no visiting team had won since 2002 and where no QB not named Brady or Manning has ever thrown 4 TDs.

    He has a QB rating over 100 through his first 5 starts.

    Its like people on here give it up for his physical talents and assume he doesn't have the rest. The kid scored in the high 30 on the Wonderlick. He is a model citizen. He is deeply religious (and I am not, but I respect his beliefs). People rip him for his Tats (nobody I have seen on this board), but they are all verses from the bible. The guy works his a$$ off non-stop. He went to college at 175 lbs and is now pushing 235 lbs. After practice, he straps weights to his chest and back and does windsprints. He 's incredibly respectful of the game and other players and just tries to soak up everything he can.

    I read one national writer call him Cam Newton without the attitude.

    I'm not saying all this because I expect everyone to become Kaepernick fans or because I expect you to think he's the second coming. I say it because your assumptions are way off-base (and I know it ain't all of you).

    For years, the NFC West has been ridiculed as the NFC Least. That ain't the deal anymore. Sam Bradford is now probably the 3rde best QB in the division....and it ain't close. (We as a division) for the most part completely obliterated the AFC East including going 3-1 vs the Pats.

    Our 2 teams in particular are in for some titanic struggles in the future (starting Sunday Night) and I think some of you need to realize that the 49ers achilles heal (QB) isn't a weakness anymore.

    Russell Wilson is having one hell of a rookie year. There is no question, but ya'll need to start realizing that he ain't the only young QB who is making a huge statement in the division.
    Marvin49
    NET Veteran
     
    Posts: 2878
    Joined: Tue Dec 18, 2012 1:34 pm


  • I think both QBs look good and both fan bases are extremely happy with the guy they have.
    User avatar
    hedgehawk
    NET Veteran
     
    Posts: 577
    Joined: Mon Mar 05, 2007 1:37 pm


  • hedgehawk wrote:I think both QBs look good and both fan bases are extremely happy with the guy they have.


    Thats totally fair. :D
    Marvin49
    NET Veteran
     
    Posts: 2878
    Joined: Tue Dec 18, 2012 1:34 pm


  • This threads shark was jumped pages ago
    Image
    User avatar
    Largent80
    NET Ring Of Honor
     
    Posts: 22624
    Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 12:38 pm
    Location: NFL WORLD CHAMPIONS 2013-2014


  • Do 49er fans realize they aren't being forced to post here?

    edit: couldn't have picked a better 6000th post :D
    Image
    User avatar
    AbsolutNET
    * NET X's & O's Guru *
     
    Posts: 8692
    Joined: Fri Feb 23, 2007 11:24 am
    Location: PNW


  • AbsolutNET wrote:Do 49er fans realize they aren't being forced to post here?

    edit: couldn't have picked a better 6000th post :D


    Of Course!!

    The OP asked for 49ers fans, so I obliged.
    Marvin49
    NET Veteran
     
    Posts: 2878
    Joined: Tue Dec 18, 2012 1:34 pm


  • Let's see...I'd take Wilson because of his leadership ability, work ethic, poise under pressure, intelligence and decision making skills. I'll leave all the stats and numbers to the rest of you. What I've seen from RW, his ability to forget a bad play and progress from one game to the next is unbelievable. It seems like when PC has him focus on one part of his game, it is fixed within a game or two (not bailing out so much, throwing in the pocket, read-option). I see him as the type of player where you can throw anything at him and he'll adapt, respond, and challenge himself to rise above it.

    I'm pretty sure you guys (Niners fans) are perfectly happy with Kap, as you should be. He's a damn good QB and like RW, he's going to continue to get better. But I'm happy with RW and wouldn't change it for ANYTHING.

    and one more thing...I don't understand why anybody would want to go to a rival's forum and argue about your respective QB's. That's like trying to discuss politics or religion to me. That ish is just going to go in circles.
    User avatar
    -The Glove-
    NET Veteran
     
    Posts: 6952
    Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2011 12:12 am


  • Dangit it's impossible to separate out homerism from these posts.
    User avatar
    hawksfan515
    NET Veteran
     
    Posts: 5215
    Joined: Fri Dec 10, 2010 6:52 pm
    Location: Battle Ground, Washington


  • AbsolutNET wrote:Do 49er fans realize they aren't being forced to post here?

    edit: couldn't have picked a better 6000th post :D


    I think most of the 49ers fans' posting would've been avoided if you guys would copy/paste stats instead of copy/paste and adding 2. A little bit of honesty goes a long way :).
    Last edited by Disp on Wed Dec 19, 2012 3:46 pm, edited 2 times in total.
    User avatar
    Disp
    NET Rookie
     
    Posts: 171
    Joined: Fri Jan 27, 2012 5:43 pm


  • I say this as someone who liked both QBs coming out of college.

    Wilson's feel for the game is miles ahead of Kaepernick's. He progresses through reads with more frequency and without any discomfort. Kaepernick is pretty much a pure 1 read QB- he has shown the ability to switch reads on deep throws- when he has all day to throw it. Wilson runs a much more sophisticated offense than Kaepernick does and has a larger number of long drives (at least based on my viewing sample- I've seen three of Kaepernick's games now as a 49er). Wilson is also a more clutch QB in the end of games.

    I think the big strength for Kaepernick is that he is a great athlete (though Wilson ran a better forty) with a great arm (Wilson's arm is also very good, but Kaepernick probably has one of the strongest arms in the NFL). He's a very nice fit for Harbaugh's system.

    Remember that Harbaugh and Carroll are extremely similar coaches with extremely similar philosophies and the GM that built most of the 49ers current team had connections to Ron Wolf and Ted Thompson, just like Seattle's GM John Schneider does. According to an inside source we have, we heard that Kaepernick was higher on Seattle's board in 2011 than Andy Dalton, Cam Newton, Jake Locker, and Christian Ponder. So this isn't about ripping Kaepernick. My heart sank when I saw the 49ers move up and nab him.

    That said, statistics only tell you part of the story. In terms of results, the two are very close, but in terms of process, Wilson is way ahead. Kaepernick is still improving and I made the Josh Freeman comparison for a reason, because when Freeman has his act together he's a scary QB. Kaepernick isn't erratic like Freeman is, although I do think he needs to continue his growth or NFL defenses will expose him next season. He's a night and day performer when under pressure / not under pressure. Give him fits and he'll make mistakes- and that's not something you can say about Wilson. If anything he almost gets better when protection breaks down.
    User avatar
    kearly
    * Mr Random Thought *
     
    Posts: 10656
    Joined: Tue Mar 06, 2007 1:44 am


  • -The Glove- wrote:Let's see...I'd take Wilson because of his leadership ability, work ethic, poise under pressure, intelligence and decision making skills. I'll leave all the stats and numbers to the rest of you. What I've seen from RW, his ability to forget a bad play and progress from one game to the next is unbelievable. It seems like when PC has him focus on one part of his game, it is fixed within a game or two (not bailing out so much, throwing in the pocket, read-option). I see him as the type of player where you can throw anything at him and he'll adapt, respond, and challenge himself to rise above it.

    I'm pretty sure you guys (Niners fans) are perfectly happy with Kap, as you should be. He's a damn good QB and like RW, he's going to continue to get better. But I'm happy with RW and wouldn't change it for ANYTHING.

    and one more thing...I don't understand why anybody would want to go to a rival's forum and argue about your respective QB's. That's like trying to discuss politics or religion to me. That ish is just going to go in circles.


    Its kinda funny....almost that entire first paragraph...I could use that to explain why I like Kaep...just Put Kaeps name in there and us JH instead of PC.

    I respect that opinion tho.

    As for why I would argue it...well, the question was asked and the OP asked for input. I have no hope of convicing anyone here that Kaep is better....my only jpe is provide perspective.

    That, and I'm really bored at work. LOL! :D
    Marvin49
    NET Veteran
     
    Posts: 2878
    Joined: Tue Dec 18, 2012 1:34 pm


  • Kearly shutdown this thread with a shotgun. Nice work, broseph.
    Image
    "VICTORYYYYYYY!" -Johnny Drama
    User avatar
    RolandDeschain
    *NET FCC Liaison*
     
    Posts: 24766
    Joined: Fri May 01, 2009 8:39 am
    Location: Kirkland, WA


  • kearly wrote:I say this as someone who liked both QBs coming out of college.

    Wilson's feel for the game is miles ahead of Kaepernick's. He progresses through reads with more frequency and without any discomfort. Kaepernick is pretty much a pure 1 read QB- he has shown the ability to switch reads on deep throws- when he has all day to throw it. Wilson runs a much more sophisticated offense than Kaepernick does and has a larger number of long drives (at least based on my viewing sample- I've seen three of Kaepernick's games now as a 49er). Wilson is also a more clutch QB in the end of games.

    I think the big strength for Kaepernick is that he is a great athlete (though Wilson ran a better forty) with a great arm (Wilson's arm is also very good, but Kaepernick probably has one of the strongest arms in the NFL). He's a very nice fit for Harbaugh's system.

    Remember that Harbaugh and Carroll are extremely similar coaches with extremely similar philosophies and the GM that built most of the 49ers current team had connections to Ron Wolf and Ted Thompson, just like Seattle's GM John Schneider does. According to an inside source we have, we heard that Kaepernick was higher on Seattle's board in 2011 than Andy Dalton, Cam Newton, Jake Locker, and Christian Ponder. So this isn't about ripping Kaepernick. My heart sank when I saw the 49ers move up and nab him.

    That said, statistics only tell you part of the story. In terms of results, the two are very close, but in terms of process, Wilson is way ahead. Kaepernick is still improving and I made the Josh Freeman comparison for a reason, because when Freeman has his act together he's a scary QB. Kaepernick isn't erratic like Freeman is, although I do think he needs to continue his growth or NFL defenses will expose him next season. He's a night and day performer when under pressure / not under pressure. Give him fits and he'll make mistakes- and that's not something you can say about Wilson. If anything he almost gets better when protection breaks down.


    OK...gonna have to stop you there right at your first comment. Kaepernick WAS a 1 read QB. He is NOT that any longer. In his first game as a starter vs Chicago, he hit Crabtree for a TD as his THIRD option on the play. Against the Pats the long TD to Walker was ALSO his THIRD option. He is moving through his progressions very quickly and that is one of the reasons 49er fans are so excited. The National perspective seems to think this is all about his legs. Its not. Thats just a bonus. The reason Kaep is playing so will is what he's doing between his ears and his accuracy on the deep ball. Don't dismiss him as a 1 read QB...you will be missing the boat.
    Marvin49
    NET Veteran
     
    Posts: 2878
    Joined: Tue Dec 18, 2012 1:34 pm


  • RolandDeschain wrote:Kearly shutdown this thread with a shotgun. Nice work, broseph.


    Uh...he might have if he weren't WAY, WAY offbase with his very first comment.
    Marvin49
    NET Veteran
     
    Posts: 2878
    Joined: Tue Dec 18, 2012 1:34 pm


  • How about somebody finds us the numbers on how many completed passes have gone to 2nd/3rd/4th reads over the past 5 games for both of them, and how many seconds they took after the snap? (Within the pocket only.) That'd be the real telling set of stats in regards to this.
    Image
    "VICTORYYYYYYY!" -Johnny Drama
    User avatar
    RolandDeschain
    *NET FCC Liaison*
     
    Posts: 24766
    Joined: Fri May 01, 2009 8:39 am
    Location: Kirkland, WA


  • How about we all just admit that no one is here to have their mind's changed, and will vote for the QB of their team no matter what?
    Image
    User avatar
    AbsolutNET
    * NET X's & O's Guru *
     
    Posts: 8692
    Joined: Fri Feb 23, 2007 11:24 am
    Location: PNW


  • AbsolutNET wrote:How about we all just admit that no one is here to have their mind's changed, and will vote for the QB of their team no matter what?


    That's way too obvious. Besides, the OP is a closet 49ers fan that loves Kaepernick. :D
    Image
    "VICTORYYYYYYY!" -Johnny Drama
    User avatar
    RolandDeschain
    *NET FCC Liaison*
     
    Posts: 24766
    Joined: Fri May 01, 2009 8:39 am
    Location: Kirkland, WA


  • AbsolutNET wrote:How about we all just admit that no one is here to have their mind's changed, and will vote for the QB of their team no matter what?


    How about no. killjoy.
    "Pete Carroll brings in great elves...and they make the best presents."
    User avatar
    SacHawk2.0
    .NOT a Moderator
     
    Posts: 9901
    Joined: Thu Apr 30, 2009 4:51 pm
    Location: With a white girl


  • AbsolutNET wrote:How about we all just admit that no one is here to have their mind's changed, and will vote for the QB of their team no matter what?


    LOL....probably true.....

    :D
    Marvin49
    NET Veteran
     
    Posts: 2878
    Joined: Tue Dec 18, 2012 1:34 pm


  • RolandDeschain wrote:How about somebody finds us the numbers on how many completed passes have gone to 2nd/3rd/4th reads over the past 5 games for both of them, and how many seconds they took after the snap? (Within the pocket only.) That'd be the real telling set of stats in regards to this.


    If that's available, I'd love to see it. No idea where we'd even find it tho.

    To be honest tho, not sure it would really even tell us anything. If the #1 option is open, there is no need to move on to the second option. All those stats might tell you is that 1 QB is better and moving through progressions OR it could tell you that the QBs #1 option doesn't get open that much.
    Marvin49
    NET Veteran
     
    Posts: 2878
    Joined: Tue Dec 18, 2012 1:34 pm


  • I meant to include 1st in that list, Marvin. However, if one QB averages moving to his 3rd read say, 0.7 seconds faster than the other over the course of 5 games...That does tell something, in my opinion. I'm guessing that stat is available somewhere for a fee for signing up for stats, but I don't exactly feel like paying money to 5 different sites just to see if they have it, lol.
    Image
    "VICTORYYYYYYY!" -Johnny Drama
    User avatar
    RolandDeschain
    *NET FCC Liaison*
     
    Posts: 24766
    Joined: Fri May 01, 2009 8:39 am
    Location: Kirkland, WA


  • RolandDeschain wrote:I meant to include 1st in that list, Marvin. However, if one QB averages moving to his 3rd read say, 0.7 seconds faster than the other over the course of 5 games...That does tell something, in my opinion. I'm guessing that stat is available somewhere for a fee for signing up for stats, but I don't exactly feel like paying money to 5 different sites just to see if they have it, lol.


    LOL...me either.

    That still wouldn't tell you everything.

    If the first read is a slant 50% of the time with one guy and it's a deep comeback for another...it would obviously take longer for the guy to move off his first read.

    I do get your point tho. :D I don't particularly want to pay for it either.
    Marvin49
    NET Veteran
     
    Posts: 2878
    Joined: Tue Dec 18, 2012 1:34 pm


  • Nothing tells you everything, "everything" is a money-crapping unicorn when it comes to stats. The best you can hope to do is get most of the way there, which Football Outsiders does brilliantly.
    Image
    "VICTORYYYYYYY!" -Johnny Drama
    User avatar
    RolandDeschain
    *NET FCC Liaison*
     
    Posts: 24766
    Joined: Fri May 01, 2009 8:39 am
    Location: Kirkland, WA


  • RolandDeschain wrote:Nothing tells you everything, "everything" is a money-crapping unicorn when it comes to stats. The best you can hope to do is get most of the way there, which Football Outsiders does brilliantly.


    LOL. Nice visual.
    Marvin49
    NET Veteran
     
    Posts: 2878
    Joined: Tue Dec 18, 2012 1:34 pm


  • Marvin49 wrote:
    Scottemojo wrote:Niner fans have a distinct handicap in using numbers to say whether Kaepernick is better than Wilson; all the numbers say that Alex Smith should be the starter in San Fran.


    Uh...no they don't.

    Kaeps average yard per COMPLETION is FAR, FAR higher than Alex and his overall numbers are comparable...which is really saying something considering Kaep has only started 5 games. Alex has also NEVER thrown 4 TDs in a game. Thier rushing statistics aren't even close.

    Bullshit. Alex has a higher completion percentage, a higher rating, a higher percentage of his passes are for touchdowns, and the one stat you quote, YPA, Alex trails him by .4, 8.4 to 8. anything over 8 is very good.

    Oh, and with a lot more attempts, Alex has 4 fumbles, Kaep has 9. Like it or not, his greenness is going to show.

    Is Kaep the future of the Niners? Hell yes. Is jumping to him as the starter this late in the year going to bite Harbie in the ass? I'm counting on it.
    SEAHAWKS.NET. We All We Got, We All We Need
    User avatar
    Scottemojo
    *Scott of Smacksville*
    *Scott of Smacksville*
     
    Posts: 10766
    Joined: Thu Apr 30, 2009 9:14 am


  • Try READING.

    I said yards per COMPLETION. I even capitalized it for you. I also mentioned the rushing numbers which aren't even close. Looks at Michael Crabtrees numbers before and after the switch...in particular the last 3 games.

    Yards per ATTEMPT is higher for Smith because of his passes are usually much shorter and complete....so it raises his yards per attempt.

    Kaeps comp % is LOWER because he throws far more passes down the field than Smith does. He is also FAR, FAR more accurate on those throws.

    Most of Kaeps fumbles are a result of bad QB/Center exchanges and the bad weather in Foxborough.

    As for installing him this late, you are missing the point. When the Niners got crushed by the Giants, I think Harbaugh realized they were going to get no further THIS year than last with Alex at QB. I like Alex. I really do. I hope he stays on as the backup (tho highly, highly unlikely), but he has never been a dynamic passer who could make things happen in or out of the pocket. The Niners needed more oput of that position to win it all.

    Him getting hurt gave harbaugh the excuse he needed to insert his guy. These last games of the season have been the perfect crucible for Kaep to get trial by fire for the playoffs.

    First start against Chicago in primetime. Going to NO, one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL. Going to NE in December, the hardest place to win in the NFL (nobody had done it since 2002). Now going to Seattle. If Kaep passes this last regular season test, he's been tried by fire and fairly well yhardened going into the playoffs. What exactly would he see in january that he hadn't seen already?

    Thats what this move is about.

    Finally, don't presume to break down Alex Smiths stats and assume you know anything about him when talking to a niner fan. We've been breaking down his stats for 6 or 7 years. We know them backwards and forwards and can tell you anything you could ever want to know about them. Trust me on this....Kaep is far better than Alex...and that's coming from a guy who has febneded him Alex since the day he was drafted.
    Marvin49
    NET Veteran
     
    Posts: 2878
    Joined: Tue Dec 18, 2012 1:34 pm


  • Marvin49 wrote:
    RolandDeschain wrote:Kearly shutdown this thread with a shotgun. Nice work, broseph.


    Uh...he might have if he weren't WAY, WAY offbase with his very first comment.


    woah there. Kearly is one of the smartest guys on this whole board, (along with Scottemojo, who you are arguing with). He is one of the few on here who actually breaks down tape. You might want to take some notes while watching some all-22 on Kaep if you are gonna successfully cross swords with him.

    And BTW, you want to see a QB go through his reads extremely fast? Wilson is a natural at this, even in his very first start against the Cardinals, where he was insanely green as compared to now.

    (Highlight starts at 1:10)

    You'll see him pumpfake first to the receiver on the right, not open so he goes to his 2nd read. His 2nd read is his receiver running an out, hoping Sidney would draw both defenders coverage. He wouldn't make it, so he goes to his 3rd read. He pumpfakes to Rice once, and then lets it loose a little high so it doesn't get tipped by the defender in front of him, TD hawks.

    And also, you might notice a lot of his TD passes are on 3rd and goal. He is very clutch, massive improvement from T-jack, even though that guy was a warrior, he is no Russell Wilson.
    User avatar
    hawksfan515
    NET Veteran
     
    Posts: 5215
    Joined: Fri Dec 10, 2010 6:52 pm
    Location: Battle Ground, Washington


  • I was shocked to see Wilson winning this poll, 10-1. Shocked (I jest).
    I'm elated with Wilson's play thus far and can only think of a few QBs I'd trade for. Kaep is not (currently) on the list. But I am seeing a lot of upside in Kaep. That has me bothered in big fashion.

    I am surrounded by Niner fans here and the one argument I had this past off-season, as to why I felt we were about to take over the division for the forseeable future, is the fact we addressed the QB issue (with Flynn, actually) while SF did not. Despite Smiths good year last year, I didn't feel he'd get the Niners over the hump. Then, we got Wilson, but Smith continued to play well.

    FF to now, and while we, IMO, are still better at the position, I fear that the promise Kaep (and Smith) has shown keeps the Niners from having to draft a QB. Obviously I was hopeful Smith would revert and the Niners would waste pick after pick trying to find a QB. All said, I no longer believe the Niners are on the verge of ruin. Instead, like us, they likely have 2 QBs they can count on. It will make for a great rivalry but we will be needing our A game everytime we face them. I hate the 49ers, I really do.
    User avatar
    HawkWow
    NET Veteran
     
    Posts: 5066
    Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 6:20 pm
    Location: The 5-0


  • Marvin49 wrote:Try READING.

    I said yards per COMPLETION. I even capitalized it for you. I also mentioned the rushing numbers which aren't even close. Looks at Michael Crabtrees numbers before and after the switch...in particular the last 3 games.Gotcha.

    Yards per ATTEMPT is higher for Smith because of his passes are usually much shorter and complete....so it raises his yards per attempt.

    Kaeps comp % is LOWER because he throws far more passes down the field than Smith does. He is also FAR, FAR more accurate on those throws.

    Most of Kaeps fumbles are a result of bad QB/Center exchanges and the bad weather in Foxborough.

    As for installing him this late, you are missing the point. When the Niners got crushed by the Giants, I think Harbaugh realized they were going to get no further THIS year than last with Alex at QB. I like Alex. I really do. I hope he stays on as the backup (tho highly, highly unlikely), but he has never been a dynamic passer who could make things happen in or out of the pocket. The Niners needed more oput of that position to win it all.Didn't they get within a Kyle Smith fumble of the SB last year? harbaugh is a good coach, but he didn't predict the future.

    Him getting hurt gave harbaugh the excuse he needed to insert his guy. These last games of the season have been the perfect crucible for Kaep to get trial by fire for the playoffs. Bullshit. Alex got hurt while on a pretty good tear, and Harbie knows it was his cahnce to install his playmaker. And kaep is a playmaking gambler so far. Don't take offense, he is you future.

    First start against Chicago in primetime. Going to NO, one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL.Dead last D in the NFL, right? Going to NE in December, the hardest place to win in the NFL (nobody had done it since 2002)Still not a great pass D, and I notice you left out his road trip to St Louis, where a highly ranked pass D kicked his ass. Now going to Seattle. If Kaep passes this last regular season test, he's been tried by fire and fairly well yhardened going into the playoffs. What exactly would he see in january that he hadn't seen already? A playoff loss. That Smith would have probably won.

    Thats what this move is about.

    Finally, don't presume to break down Alex Smiths stats and assume you know anything about him when talking to a niner fan. We've been breaking down his stats for 6 or 7 years. We know them backwards and forwards and can tell you anything you could ever want to know about them. Trust me on this....Kaep is far better than Alex...and that's coming from a guy who has febneded him Alex since the day he was drafted.
    SEAHAWKS.NET. We All We Got, We All We Need
    User avatar
    Scottemojo
    *Scott of Smacksville*
    *Scott of Smacksville*
     
    Posts: 10766
    Joined: Thu Apr 30, 2009 9:14 am


  • I don't think you can compare the 2 at this point like this anyway. Kaepernick is 3 games in and he's not faced the same quality of defenses Wilson has. NE is a powerhouse offense, but their D leaves something to be desired.
    Image

    “There’s no reason, with Mr. Allen and the fan base here and the stadium, that this can’t be a stable, long-term winning organization.” - John Schneider
    User avatar
    Bakergirl
    NET Veteran
     
    Posts: 3302
    Joined: Fri Oct 14, 2011 7:13 pm
    Location: Seattle


PreviousNext


It is currently Wed Aug 27, 2014 7:24 am

Please REGISTER to become a member

Return to [ THE OFFICIAL NET NATION FAN FORUM ]




Information