SEA's look at Shiancoe and my continuing receiver worries

MontanaHawk05

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I don't care what DVOA says - the 49ers have the best defense in the league. The Bears are not in the same class. San Francisco is younger, faster, more versatile, harder-hitting, and not merely relying on ballhawk DB's to disguise decline up front. They've got a legit set of linebackers like any 3-4 defense does, a crazy good secondary and all kinds of pass-rushing weapons. S Dashon Goldson and LB Navarro Bowman have shaken off their youth and become stars and possibly Pro Bowlers. The 49ers are a much better matchup against the run and against our zone-read than anyone else in the league.

This, not Chicago, will be the toughest defensive test for Seattle. Okay, second toughest defensive test - the toughest was IN San Francisco, where we scored six points AFTER Russell Wilson had emerged from his early-season larval stage and started to figure things out. We've been fine since, but we haven't played a team like the 49ers since either.

Think back to that game - the most notorious case of drops by Seattle this season, and a conspicuously isolated case at that. I made a connection today when I read how punishing SF's back seven plays against opposing receivers. I realized that I'd seen the same case of pervasive dropsies in another team this year - the Cowboys in Week 2, facing Seattle. That game was where we truly established our "wear them down" identity on D, imposing our physicality on them with big hits until Jason Witten developed "short arms" and started uncharacteristically dropping everything. Their loss of execution on offense was a big reason for our blowout.

In San Francisco, it was our turn. Wilson generally looked fine, but several of our targets dropped crucial passes that were perfectly thrown, including the normally sure-handed Tate. It left most of us pandering for improvement at WR and TE. The clamor quieted down as we started winning after that, but IMO we have yet to face another defense of that caliber, at home or away. And today I started wondering just how much of that isolated week of dropsies was down to the physicality of the 49ers defense.

Let's cast a brutally honest look at our receiving corps: one thing they're not, is physical. At wide receiver, we have Sidney Rice, Golden Tate, and Doug Baldwin. All three have developed chemistry and grown into their roles on this offense. Yet we're also aware, in the back of our minds, that we're one injury away from relying on Jermaine Kearse as our #3, and Rice or Baldwin aren't known for their durability. Tate won't be winding his way through the 49ers on screens like he did Carolina, Minnesota, or Chicago. The 49ers tackle people. At tight end, we have the Carlson-esque Miller and the opportunistic Anthony McCoy earning their paycheck blocking for Lynch and Wilson, but neither has a particularly blustering reputation, and McCoy has been known to drop things. (So has Baldwin, this year.)

When the season opened, I felt that our receiving situation was a house of cards waiting to betray our developing QB. Believe it or not, I still feel that way somewhat. Not so much, but somewhat. Lynch, Wilson, Rice, Lynch, and Wilson have covered up a lot of this, and to be sure, that's not a gimmick. Our offense will always look like that.

But the 49ers are a tough, physical defense, built much like ours. Patrick Willis is the star of that defense for a very good reason - he's one of the few linebackers in this league both big AND fast enough to stand up against those freak receiving tight ends. He's our version of Kam Chancellor, except he's not a DB and frees our secondary up to handle an offense's other weapons. Against running backs and underneath routes, you have the hard-hitting Navarro Bowman, who's enjoying a fine season. Greg Cosell was talking today about how those are the two key matchups you have to overcome when you play the 49ers, and they're doozies. And they play MAN coverage in the nickel, a lot. With a safety like Goldson back there getting in WR's faces, this will be a challenge of a physical nature for our receivers.

I look at our roster and I honestly don't see a receiver built to stand up to the kind of physical punishment that, say, Brandon Browner and Richard Sherman would deal out. SF can match the intensity of those two. They don't give up a lot of big plays (33 pass plays of 20+ yards, tied with Seattle for 4th in the league), and Seattle relies on explosive plays in their offensive formula. SF tackles and they limit YAC. They are well-built to bring our offense back down to earth, if anyone is going to. Tate continues to put up his requisite sit-up-and-yell-wow-did-that-just-happen big play per game, but he's not big and he's not fast. Rice is a borderline #1 receiver, but ehhhh, he's Rice, and his absence would hurt everyone else. Our tight ends are unremarkable, though they get the job done at crucial moments.

Then we get the news that Seattle worked out Visanthe Shiancoe today, "just in case they needed a TE", according to the report. I find this interesting, since Miller and McCoy are both healthy, Miller is finally accruing touchdowns, McCoy just had himself a 100-yard game, nobody except me has doubted them for weeks, and #3 TE, despite being occupied by the disappointing Evan Moore, is usually not a glaring need. I'm not sure who would accuse Seattle of being in need of a tight end right at this moment, at least not on the surface. Not unless there were issues being masked.

A stab-in-the-dark hunch: Carroll knows his passing game is about to visit the most physical and best-matched defense they'll face this season, and he too has misgivings. We need more targets capable of running routes, getting open, competing for catches in traffic, and enabling more plays in the playbook (the read-option is great, but the route trees still look pretty limited). Shiancoe was on an injured reserve list as recently as September and has been on the decline for a while, and he's not the biggest (6'4"). But in his heyday was a good choice against a sturdy defense. New England releasing him wasn't a surprise once they finally got Gronk and Hernia-ndez back on the field at the same time. I doubt he'll experience any kind of career revival in Seattle, but Pete glancing Shiancoe's way might hint at what he thinks of our receiver situation going into Sunday's game against the 49ers.

Just a thought. Flame away.
 
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MontanaHawk05

MontanaHawk05

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hawks4thewin":2htjscty said:
I will take deon butler to stretch the 49ers defense for 100 please.

Yeah, there's another hint, although he was mostly a replacement for Braylon Edwards. But one of the reasons Butler was cut was because he's just too small to beat press coverage. That won't favor him against SF.
 

Atradees

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Our receivers catch everything near them and get yards after contact. What more could you ask? Tate and Rice can even throw touchdowns.
 

FlyingGreg

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Butler has never blossomed into the "stretch a defense" kind of WR, despite his speed. And Montana hit on why -- he's too small.

He is a good moving the chains guy, but that's about all. And I doubt he has much chemistry with Wilson.
 

King Dog

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Our WR's go up against our DB's every day in practice. They should feel right at home going up against the 49ers secondary.
 

Seahawk Sailor

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I think you're spot on, Montana. This game scares me the most out of any this season. The Bears in Chicago didn't worry me as much, and in fact I was one of few saying we could well lose at Miami and then win in Chicago before either of those games, the exact opposite of what most thought, but exactly the way it turned out.

San Francisco wants badly to come up into our house and take the season from us. They want it as badly as we wanted to take one from them there, except that they would be getting the season sweep. They will be very tough. True, we're a much better offensive team now than the first time we played them, but they've gotten better over the season too. And we don't have a lot of tape on Kaepernick, which worries me a bit.

It's a game we could well win, but I ain't penciling it in just yet. Consider me optimistically concerned.
 

seahawks08

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I think the key will be QB's. CP was rattle in St Louis with a great defense, so I am guessing he can make mistakes and Seahawks hopefully capitalize. The snap fumbles in NE could easily have turned out as possession losing scenarios. So I think Seahawks will prevail and also play with a lot to prove. Come Sunday night, we will know I guess. Winning momentum helps and playing in Clink should only make it better.
 

mikeak

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We DOMINATED the first half the first time we played 49ers. The issue in the second half was more conservative playcalling and not getting off the field.

If the players don't drop it like its hot then we win. Kap at qb for 49ers will lead tomorrow possessions in second half.

Win / Loose this is a great game to get us in the right playoff mindset. We loose this we crush Rams and keep rolling. We win this we will rattle 49ers and go confident going forward
 

Blitzhawk

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What scares me most is Kaep at QB for them. Alex Smith is a good game manager that is good at keeping them in a close grind it out running game but if they get behind he is not capable of playing catch up. Kaep has so much more ceiling w/ his mobility and strong arm as well as at least the same amount of football intelligence as Smith. Kaep may make the rookie mistakes or have a few more gamble type turnovers but I feel he more than makes up for that w/ what he brings w/ his legs and arm. I really hated it when smith got hurt and was really sad to see I was right.

So, while I feel we are a completely different team offensively this time around and vastly improved, I think they are as well. Will be interesting to see where each team stands. I hope to see us hammer them but I feel it is going to be one brutal brawl all the way thru.
 

PlinytheCenter

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We are not going to loose this game dammit. But hey, we could loose you never know. Still, it would be awful to loose this game because we could loose momentum. I don't want to loose our last two games; we might loose out on the playoffs and go out loosers for the year. Loosing sucks.
 

kearly

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I guess the New England WRs forgot to be intimidated while their offense scored 4 TDs over something like a 12 minute period on Sunday. 8) I don't personally buy into the "hearing footsteps" theory. The Cardinals and Bears both have very good pass defenses and hard hitters, and Seattle did not have drop problems in those games. I think it's more likely that it was just a coincidence, and if I blamed it on anything, I'd blame it on a Thursday night road game, of which the road teams have played poorly in all season.

I think Shiancoe isn't much of a mystery worth delving into for conspiracy theories. Evan Moore has been a bit of a disaster. It's natural that Seattle would entertain an upgrade to the roster.

And FWIW, I do not think the 49ers have THE best defense in the NFL. The stats show a very close race between several good defenses. I think they, and Seattle, have the two most talented defenses, but in terms of 2012 performance, I don't think they are the best. Seattle could have blown them out in the first meeting if not for some very poorly timed penalties and drops. And if New England had scored just two more points, Seattle would currently have the #1 scoring defense. They are currently just one point back. Meaning that if they win this next game, they will be the #1 scoring defense (barring defensive/ST scores). Assuming it isn't 55-65 or something like that.

I trust DVOA's rankings. The Bears defense has taken a hit lately, but for a while they were having a historically good year. We were very fortunate to get the Bears in December. Ironically enough.

I do think Seattle should grab a WR in this draft, maybe two. It's a nice WR class that's deep at the top. I like our starting trio, but two thirds of it has an injury history, and our backup WR group has suddenly become quite depleted.
 

themunn

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Patrick Willis is 185cm 240lbs
Bobby Wagner is 183cm 241lbs


as for physical receivers, ask Sean Lee if he thinks our receivers pack a wallop
 

hawksfansinceday1

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PlinytheCenter":1x8wj0a0 said:
We are not going to loose this game dammit. But hey, we could loose you never know. Still, it would be awful to loose this game because we could loose momentum. I don't want to loose our last two games; we might loose out on the playoffs and go out loosers for the year. Loosing sucks.
Playin' it fast and loose there aren't you? ;)
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Oh, and Montana you touched very briefly on something that's been a sore spot for me all year, Doug Baldwin. Dude has not made the tough catches this season. Yes, I know he's not been 100%, but there have been quite a few occasions where he's stretched out for a catch and had it go off his fingertips. Were they tough catches? Absolutely, but they were also catches that get the Hawks a first down or a TD and could've made a huge difference in a game and in the case of the Miami game, maybe winning the division since a win there means the Hawks are playing for first place this week. I said it on the Draft forum and I'll say it here, this team needs a true possesion receiver that is nearly always open that Russ can go to when other, downfield options are not open. He scrambles more than he should and a guy like that would be the safety valve that would keep him from having to scramble so much. You talked about TE and maybe that's the answer. All I know is I want to see a guy that is nearly always open and makes most of the tough catches on this team next year.
 

hawker84

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our recievers have taken a beating this year... have we forgotten the hit's rice has taken, in chicago for instance, and golden tate looks like a whirley bird rag doll on most of his acrobatic td catches... they're tougher than you think.. and good.. not to mention baldwin getting his grill dented... we'll be fine...
 
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MontanaHawk05

MontanaHawk05

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kearly":2qr1ahfo said:
I guess the New England WRs forgot to be intimidated while their offense scored 4 TDs over something like a 12 minute period on Sunday. 8)

They were dropping passes all over the place.
 

seedhawk

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MontanaHawk05":iry12tqy said:
kearly":iry12tqy said:
I guess the New England WRs forgot to be intimidated while their offense scored 4 TDs over something like a 12 minute period on Sunday. 8)

They were dropping passes all over the place.

They caught enough of them to tie the game however.
 

drdiags

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Speaking about TEs, I wonder if Evan Moore is on the way out? Or one of the DBs?

Curtis Crabtree ‏@Curtis_Crabtree
The #Seahawks are expected to elevate TE Sean McGrath from the p-squad to 53-man roster today per his agent. No word on corresponding moves.
 
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