Random Thoughts™ on the Bills game

kearly

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Well, this is going to be awkward. Like most people, I had assumed that the Patriots would easily beat the 49ers tonight. And they probably would have, if they hadn't played what was likely the worst 2.5 quarters of football in the Brady era to open the game. The epic comeback stalled when the Patriots special teams blew it late and the defense instantly remembered how to forget to tackle.

The 49ers now only need to beat the lowly Cardinals, at home, to secure the division. That "delay of game" tie against the Rams will likely bite us in the ass after all. This has been such an emotional season. I've never seen one like it.

I guess if there is some solace in tonight's result, it's that New England is now in a tough spot for getting a bye, which increases the chance they could fail to reach the Superbowl. We don't want to face New England in the big game. Entering today they were #1 in the NFL in DVOA, the only team ahead of Seattle (that might change tomorrow). It's not much of a consolation prize, but if Seattle can learn to win playoff games on the road, we could ironically be thankful for this result a month from now. I badly want the Seahawks to win a championship, and those odds are a lot better if the AFC rep is a team like the Texans, Ravens, or Colts (lol).

The Seahawks are evolving. Early in the season they started 4-4 and won mostly ugly, close games and lost only ugly, close games. They were basically playing Arizona Cardinal football, a good defense with a frustrating offense and a QB that was erratic at times. In the last few weeks, they've begun to look a bit like the New England Patriots, winning with a highly potent offense and an overly bendy defense. Seattle just became the first NFL team to score 50+ in back to back games during the Superbowl era. Even Tom Brady has never done that (although he came just 1 point away from doing it earlier this year). Who would have guessed that before the season?

A few random thoughts on the game itself:

-The scary thing about this game was that it could have easily been 59-17. Calling Irvin down on his fumble recovery seemed like a blown call to me, and it resulted in 3 points instead of 7. Leon Washington had long TD brought back by a legit though chippy hold. Seattle would later score 3 on that ensuing drive. Seattle also had an extra point blocked. A few weeks ago, these kinds of things were the difference between whether or not the Seahawks won or lost the game. Now these kinds of things are the difference between whether or not the Seahawks set an NFL record for beating a team's ass too hard.

-Pete Carroll scrambled to tell reporters after the game that his fake punt while nursing a 30 point lead was a case of forgetting to change a predetermined play. I trust Pete, but this strikes me as a little hard to believe. I played the game at two levels and I never really bought into the sportsmanship thing. These are grown, tough men. It's not something worth being offended by. That said, this was clearly poor sportsmanship if done intentionally. And I think I'd rather believe that Pete is a poor sport than a guy who doesn't even know what play his team is running. Either way, it's nothing worth caring about, although it will probably effect his image in the national media.

-Seattle's defense mostly sucked today. CJ Spiller torched us, which was predictable given his excellence this season and Seattle's long established struggles against fast RBs. More concerning was how easily Fitzpatrick found WIDE OPEN targets in little time. Maxwell and Lane played about as expected- they flashed at times but were both liabilities on the whole. Even Richard Sherman had a bit of a down game. The pass rush was non-existent in the first half, when Carroll once again was stubborn about not blitzing. The Seahawks were more creative in the second half, utilizing confusing looks and stunts to finally generate pressure. Honestly, Seattle just needs to forget about the base pass rush, at least until adding more pass rush help. If Pete is waiting until the 2nd half to get creative so that the opponent can't make adjustments at halftime, that's one thing. But if he really thinks this defense can work with a vanilla pass rush, he needs to wake up. Before the playoffs.

-I thought Fitzpatrick played pretty well today. I feel he could have threatened 300 yards if not more had his WRs not dropped so many catchable passes. Funny enough, he has an uncanny resemblance to a bearded Matt Flynn, and his profile as a QB is fairly similar as well.

-Seattle's offense is beginning to look almost unstoppable. Seattle's offense was already very good when it relied on Wilson as a passer, but the dual threat of Lynch-Wilson on read option just isn't fair to defenses. Wilson did not run much read option in college but like everything else he's picked it up quickly and his ability to execute a play has always been one of his biggest strengths. Seattle did not punt until there was a minute remaining before halftime, and by then Seattle had already amassed well over 300 yards of offense and 31 points. If there is any hope for the Seahawks winning the Superbowl as wildcard road warriors, it rests in the offense's hands. I'm starting to think our offense can win a game anywhere against any team if it can keep playing like it has the last two weeks.

-Chris Clemons had 2.5 of Seattle's 3 sacks, which is deceptive because today's pass rush (which really didn't show up until the 2nd half) was much more of a team effort I thought. Clemons now has 11.5 sacks on the season, a new career best. With two games to go. Upon semi-close inspection, Clemons seemed to be subtly declining this year at creating pressure, but I'll take production however I can get it. Maybe he'll actually go to the pro-bowl this time around.

-"Let's go Blue Jays" was a chant heard in the stadium near the end of the game. And not that I didn't expect this given the Seahawks' dominance, but the Seahawks contingent came across louder on TV than the Bills contingent did. It felt like a majority of the fans were neutral. The environment was a lot like a college bowl game. It was pretty close to being a true neutral field.

-Seattle debuted the Wolf Greys today. I kind of feel the opposite about the Wolf Greys than our home jerseys. Up close, they look far better, but at a distance they seem overly monochromatic and don't improve under the lights like the blue jerseys do.

-Seattle has 554 net yards rushing over the last two games.

-It seemed like the refs let both teams play today. I saw both teams get away with some easy calls. It seems like Seattle usually wins when that happens.

-After having mostly quiet seasons, KJ Wright had a huge game today, and ET got himself a pick six.

-I hate to bring this up, because I don't want to rehash the woulda-shoulda's, but can you imagine this current team with homefield advantage throughout the playoffs? They'd be pretty close to unstoppable.

-Unfortunately, the 49ers dropped a turd in the punchbowl tonight and the Packers defused our bye week dreams as well. Honestly if I could push a button to redo this weekend I probably would- we needed the 49ers to lose that game and the Packers just won arguably their most losable remaining game as well. This really sucks because it takes the epic feel out of next week's showdown in Seattle. Obviously, it's still an important game with serious playoff implications, but it's not really about the division anymore, not unless you think the Cardinals can play spoiler in San Francisco. And that's a bummer. It's also a bummer that Colin Kaepernick is growing up before our eyes and could make the NFC West extremely challenging for a decade to come. I never thought I'd say that a weekend with a 50-17 win would be a tough weekend, but yeah, it kind of was.

-Granted, Seattle can still earn a bye. But right now I'd put those odds around 5%. Earlier today I would have said 25%.

-On the bright side, you have to love where this Seahawks team is headed right now, and if they can figure out a way to play better defense on the road this offseason, it might not even matter how good SF is. I have faith in this front office. They have fixed everything they've touched, often with shockingly little resources required. As exciting as this team is right now, I have no reason to doubt their future is even brighter.
 

falcongoggles

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Thank you sir. Reading material on the train to Rome for the embassy. These are the best after a win...(soaking it in)
 

JSeahawks

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I didnt really like our defensive strategy today. I thought we tried to get too cute. Sherman was shadowing Johnson all over the field today and I thought it took away some of his effectiveness. I cant recall the Seahawks ever doing that before as its usually Sherm on one side of the field and Browner on the other side.

In my opinion we should have just trusted Lane and Maxwell to get the job done and kept Sherman over on his usual left side where he is dominant. He looked completely lost a few times getting beat pretty badly while over on the right side of the field.

Oh, and Kaepernick doesnt scare me. He could have very easily had 7 turnovers by himself. Lets hope its pouring down rain next week because they fumbled 4 snaps today. He'll also throw a couple bonehead interceptions mixed in with some of the amazing plays he makes.

The 49ers offense (and whole team) is very good though, i'm not trying to take anything away from them. And I really like their offensive coordinator. But i'd trust Wilson more then kaepernick, and its not even close.
 

AROS

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kearly":3q05opm5 said:
...The pass rush was non-existent in the first half, when Carroll once again was stubborn about not blitzing. The Seahawks were more creative in the second half, utilizing confusing looks and stunts to finally generate pressure. Honestly, Seattle just needs to forget about the base pass rush, at least until adding more pass rush help. If Pete is waiting until the 2nd half to get creative so that the opponent can't make adjustments at halftime, that's one thing. But if he really thinks this defense can work with a vanilla pass rush, he needs to wake up. Before the playoffs.

You intimate that Carroll is the one controling the defensive calls. I thought Gus was? I just want to know where to focus my venom when we are playing soft zone crap or not blitzing when we should.

Good stuff as always kearly.
 

shiva1008

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Fake punt while up 30... Pete Carroll is trying to out-Belicheck Belicheck :)
 

SharkHawk

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I thought the defense played pretty well. Zero points allowed in the second half. Gailey is a good game planner, he just doesn't have the talent to stick with anybody in the second half. He can call a nice gameplan and I assume he does the Holmgren "script the first several series" thing and it worked quite well.

The Hawks adjusted both their offensive and defensive efforts for the second half (going more into the standard 2 back set and running a "normal" offense) and switching things up on D to create more pressure. Both worked beautifully. So the first half D wasn't that great, but that's why it's a 2 half game.
 

Hawken-Dazs

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hawksfan515":3pqfz8tq said:
1st!

I got like a streak of being 1st on your random thoughts Kearly. Sweet.

EDIT: dangit...... :(

How old are you?
 

usChawks

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If Pete is waiting until the 2nd half to get creative so that the opponent can't make adjustments at halftime, that's one thing. But if he really thinks this defense can work with a vanilla pass rush, he needs to wake up. Before the playoffs.

I actually thought about this while watching the game today. I think Pete is too intelligent of a football guy not to see the positive results of bringing pressure. I think it's because he believes it's important to 'set the tone' for the second half of the game, so he just lets it ride out for the first two quarters without much blitzing. For instance, look what happened when we brought pressure during the 1st half against the Packers and had 8 sacks. They adjusted and kind of negated the pressure during the 2nd half.

Might be a stretch though, idk. Just my 2 cents.
 

HawkHack

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Our zone read options is killer right now. RW is so good at selling the thing he doesn't do. If you watch his college tape, you see the same thing.

I hope it will last a few more games. One of the criticisms of a "fast" D is typically that they overpursue, and the Hawks have been guilty of that. Can we get SF's "fast" D to overpursue on the zone reads?

I hope we keep Clemons. He's the most disruptive part of our D line.

Finally, I love when the refs let teams play. The game is just so much better. Thanks, guys. No, seriously.
 

bellingerga

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hawksfan515":t628s8h6 said:
1st!

I got like a streak of being 1st on your random thoughts Kearly. Sweet.

EDIT: dangit...... :(

The "1st!!!" posts on forums..... biggest facepalm moments ever. seriously. I have nothing nice to say so I'll refrain from elaborating further....


On to the OP. Good piece Kearly. Another great/entertaining read. Between the epic community here, and write-ups from dudes like you, Aros, and Hawkscanner this place is easily the best sports forum on the web PERIOD (I know..... CAPTAIN OBVIOUS)
 

AROS

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HawkHack":sypq4c05 said:
Our zone read options is killer right now.

So much so that I literally am fooled like EVERY TIME! Just when I think RW keeps it, Lynch is off and running with the ball. Just when I think Lynch is off and running with the ball, RW is gaining a first down or a touchdown. If my head is spinning this much watching on TV, I'm sure the defense isn't enjoying their experience either.

I've been a diehard since 1976. I've seen some great moments, players and games and a crap load of bad moments, players and games.

Never in my life did I think I would live to see someone as amazing as Russell Wilson on the Seattle Seahawks.

These are amazing times. Enjoy and savor every moment.
 

AROS

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RolandDeschain":2mtcwov1 said:
hawksfan515":2mtcwov1 said:

Isn't this against forum rules?

Not sure about being against the rules but it is mildy annoying. Although, I'm sure the kid means well.
 

BAllenHawk

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bellingerga":lu5j265u said:
hawksfan515":lu5j265u said:
1st!

I got like a streak of being 1st on your random thoughts Kearly. Sweet.

EDIT: dangit...... :(

The "1st!!!" posts on forums..... biggest facepalm moments ever. seriously. I have nothing nice to say so I'll refrain from elaborating further....


On to the OP. Good piece Kearly. Another great/entertaining read. Between the epic community here, and write-ups from dudes like you, Aros, and Hawkscanner this place is easily the best sports forum on the web PERIOD (I know..... CAPTAIN OBVIOUS)
Really... is it that big of an issue?
 

BAllenHawk

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But the second part of his post I agree, Kearly some seriously good stuff. I do have to disagree somewhat though. I don't think the D was as bad as some think. There is some frustrating moments no doubt, but to say a team that is only giving up 15.5 points/game and only gave up 17 today didn't suck. I don't know if its remembering what they did wrong more than they did right, or their dominance earlier in the season, but they're playing well with room to grow IMHO
 

hgwellz12

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Aros":36y8k048 said:
RolandDeschain":36y8k048 said:
hawksfan515":36y8k048 said:

Isn't this against forum rules?

Not sure about being against the rules but it is mildy annoying. Although, I'm sure the kid means well.


Yeah after today's game I kinda felt like a teenage girl too so I understand how he feels lol.

Anyhow, awesome read.!
 

Scottemojo

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The fake punt was stupid for a different reason; it was a damn good play that should be saved for a more critical time.

I feel bad for Seattle fans who lost out on attending a home game in the playoffs, but going on the road and winning could be critical to building the mettle of this team. The failure to bring that mettle in two road games this year, Detroit and Miami, is precisely why we are in this predicament. I don't see this squad as a Super Bowl team quite yet, schematically we still have a hole or two, and are a bit mercurial on road effort, so a harder path through the post season might be a good way to build that attitude.

This game was almost over before it began. Buffalo had good effort, but looked to be coached up by idiots. How they were that unprepared for the read option is beyond me, their defensive ends were biting down on Marshawn like they had never seen that play before.

And Kip, i wonder if you share a thought with me on this: I never expected the surgical feel of the offense in the last two games. I think we have had a glimpse of the future here in the last two weeks. There is going to come a time when Wilson has full control of the offense, the kind of control Brady has, and Seattle will have a top 5 offense. We aren't there yet, right now we are gutting bad teams, but I can see it now.
 

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