JerHawk81 wrote:SEA wins out - 50%
SF loses @NE - 40%
CHI loses @MIN 60%
NYG loses @ATL or @BAL- 70%
GB loses @CHI 50%
Chances: 4% (using rough math).
We're in great shape to make the playoffs. But the chances of getting to the #2 spot look slim.
Correct, but the numbers are kind of off. The chances of Seattle going 4-0 are way lower than 50%. It's more like 20%.
SF does not HAVE to lose to NE, they could lose to AZ or MIA too, really it's a question of SF winning out their non-Seahawks games, which includes @NE. I'd give them maybe a 70% chance of losing one of those 3 games (a guess).
Chicago, NY, and GB do not need to lose to anyone specific, they just need to lose once in four games to anybody, and the Packers/Bears each play each other so it makes one of those losses automatic. Odds of all three losing at least one of the next four? Probably about 50% (a guess).
This is guesswork (ask Agentdib for an uberleet statistical breakdown), but based on those numbers the odds would look like this:
.2 x .7 x .50 = .07 = 7% chance of happening.
Of course, those odds increase dramatically with every loss that helps us. It's just really low odds right now since so many teams are involved. If Seattle wins out, their odds would jump to 35%.