Formula for Seattle reaching #2 playoff seed

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  • The Cowboys and the Skins are both at 6-6. Their Post Season might well depend on that last game. The Boys might well step up and bite them!
    Bigpumpkin
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  • A bye week counts towards the suspension right? One less game without the corners.

    Sounds good to me!

    So say we snag #2 pretty easy.
    -Chicago is not so awesome and has 3 out of 4 on the road.
    -The Giants play Saints, @Falcons, @Ravens, Eagles. They should drop one considering how inconsistent they are
    -The Packers play Lions, @Bears, Titans, @Vikings. They are the ones we have to worry about I think, though they are pretty inconsistent.
    -Pats beat SF.

    Atlanta might lose week 1 since they are kinda overrated in my opinion. Home-field throughout with a bye week?

    See ya in New Orleans!

    Oh wait we have to win out too? Well let's just do that too. Queue loss to AZ Sunday now that we are all excited.
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    JKent82
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  • JerHawk81 wrote:SEA wins out - 50%
    SF loses @NE - 40%
    CHI loses @MIN 60%
    NYG loses @ATL or @BAL- 70%
    GB loses @CHI 50%

    Chances: 4% (using rough math).

    We're in great shape to make the playoffs. But the chances of getting to the #2 spot look slim.


    Correct, but the numbers are kind of off. The chances of Seattle going 4-0 are way lower than 50%. It's more like 20%.

    SF does not HAVE to lose to NE, they could lose to AZ or MIA too, really it's a question of SF winning out their non-Seahawks games, which includes @NE. I'd give them maybe a 70% chance of losing one of those 3 games (a guess).

    Chicago, NY, and GB do not need to lose to anyone specific, they just need to lose once in four games to anybody, and the Packers/Bears each play each other so it makes one of those losses automatic. Odds of all three losing at least one of the next four? Probably about 50% (a guess).

    This is guesswork (ask Agentdib for an uberleet statistical breakdown), but based on those numbers the odds would look like this:

    .2 x .7 x .50 = .07 = 7% chance of happening.

    Of course, those odds increase dramatically with every loss that helps us. It's just really low odds right now since so many teams are involved. If Seattle wins out, their odds would jump to 35%.
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    kearly
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  • The hardest part of the equation is us winning out. With 3 home games, it seems doable. But it's still no small task.

    Accomplish that though, and the rest isn't far fetched at all. All you're asking is that none of SF, GB, NYG, or CHI win out. One of those teams could win out. But it's not ridiculous to think they each will lose at least 1 out of their final 4 games.

    This is both an entirely silly conversation to be having (when we're fighting for playoffs, period), as well as an entirely realistic one. Fun stuff.
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    SeaTown81
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  • It's a hell of a lot better conversation to be having than the ones last week where the two topics of conversation were "Exactly how bad DOES our defense suck" and "7-9 or 8-8, which is more likely?"
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  • Bigpumpkin wrote:The Cowboys and the Skins are both at 6-6. Their Post Season might well depend on that last game. The Boys might well step up and bite them!


    Come on Pumpkin ... after what we've seen from this Cowboys team this year you'd seriously pick them over the Redskins in that game? That game is going to be at the Redskins home stadium and from what I've seen from RGIII this year -- I'm not picking against him. Romo has always choked in big game situations (Seahawk fans of all people should know that). No, with the schedule they've got the rest of the way, I see 10-6 as very attainable for the Redskins. They've been my dark horse for a few weeks now ... and I definitely see them as a team that could make a late charge down the stretch.
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  • volsunghawk wrote:It's a hell of a lot better conversation to be having than the ones last week where the two topics of conversation were "Exactly how bad DOES our defense suck" and "7-9 or 8-8, which is more likely?"


    My thoughts exactly. My how things have changed in one short week. Can't say I didn't call it either.
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  • This is nice to dream about but it's extremely unlikely all of this will fall into place. I think it's more likely GB runs the table than Sea goes 4-0. With our corners facing suspension, I think it's more likely we go 3-1 and get a wildcard at 10-6.
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  • How sick would it be if Green Bay had to come back to Seattle for a playoff game? That would be epic!
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  • Well the Rams seem to have both ours, and SF's number so far anyway. I hope we handle both of those teams.
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  • Seattle has been invincible at home against far tougher teams than ARI and STL. Our offense is getting hot right now. Buffalo is a terrible team, far less talent than either Miami or Carolina. On paper (YES, DOM, I KNOW), those are three winnable games should the Seahawks play disciplined to even a modest degree.

    So while Any Given Sunday and the Road Monkey are still to be reckoned with (they seem to be tougher opponents than any one team this year), Seattle's odds of winning out are not unreasonable, nor is the idea of all those other three teams each losing one more given their schedule. The only real obstacle to the #2 seed is the 49ers.

    I'm actually feeling pretty good about those remote chances.
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  • This is a great thing, and it really throws into light how important the Rams/Arizona game were (in my opinion. Losing to the Lions still put us at 3-1 against the NFC North against 0-3 in our own division.) If we had won one of those games, we'd only have to win out to take the #2 seed right now.
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  • Bigpumpkin wrote:The Cowboys and the Skins are both at 6-6. Their Post Season might well depend on that last game. The Boys might well step up and bite them!


    That is very possible, but honestly, I don't see the Redskins beating the Ravens this weekend. Baltimore is going to be coming in on a mission after losing to The Batch led Steelers last week.


    For whomever said they don't like byes, don't forget, we play a lot of our games after byes on the road. I think THIS is a much bigger contributing factor than the bye itself. I'll take the risk of the bye week to get the advantage of home field. Home field at CLINK is EPIC
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  • Just have to root for the Hawks to win out. Everything else is out of the Hawks' control. If they win out and get to 11-5, they'll be in a good spot.
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  • SalishHawkFan wrote:If the Giants lose to the Ravens - entirely possible in Baltimore - it's possible the Skins win the division and the Giants aren't even in the playoffs.


    True but Dallas is also in play for the division and considering that Dallas and Washington play to end the season it could be for the division title.

    Basically Washinton has to play Baltimore this week. If they lose that game their wildcard chances become very bleak. 1 washington loss would almost spell the end for them. Unless the G-men totally collapse-- they are 1-3 in the 3rd quarter so I suppose it's possible.
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  • Largent80 wrote:Well the Rams seem to have both ours, and SF's number so far anyway. I hope we handle both of those teams.


    Fake FG TD, FGs from 58 and 60 yards. Zuerlein is good, but our D is much much better at home, of the 4 remaining games, that is the one I'm MOST confident of winning
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  • Reaneypark wrote:How sick would it be if Green Bay had to come back to Seattle for a playoff game? That would be epic!


    Don't count on getting ANY calls.
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  • BlueTalon wrote:In the NFL forum, I was actively hoping for a Redskins win, for exactly this reason.


    I was too except for the fact that I had to prepare myself for the RGIII BJ fest that would follow from the media.
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  • JonRud wrote:This is nice to dream about but it's extremely unlikely all of this will fall into place. I think it's more likely GB runs the table than Sea goes 4-0. With our corners facing suspension, I think it's more likely we go 3-1 and get a wildcard at 10-6.


    While it's nice to dream about a 11-5 Season, I have to agree with JonRud completely. After listening to David Vobora's interview on 710 ESPN, I'm fairly convinced that the NFL the appeals process is basically impossible ... so let me just say it now -- Sherman will be gone for 4 games, so will miss both the 49ers game, the Rams game, and 2 games after that.

    Without Sherman, I believe it far less likely that the Hawks will win the 49ers game, so we'll probably get to 10-6. Now, that may not be a very good scenario at all especially if things play out in the NFC East as I think they could (with both the Giants and Redskins getting to 10-6). Kidhawk is probably right that the Redskins lose this weekend ... but remember, RGIII will be playing this one before his home crowd. Don't discount the possibility he could have another monster game. More than likely though, I see the Hawks getting the Wildcard at 10-6 with a loss against the Niners. As of now, that's how I see the pieces all shaking out.
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  • Without the suspensions, I like our chances to go 11-5. With them, I see 9-7 and a 6th seed, possibly.
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  • Add into all of this...what if Atlanta craps the bed and loses out... I played that scenario and that gives Seattle the #1 Seed.
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