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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Bears game
 Post Posted: Sun Dec 02, 2012 6:04 pm 
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HawkAroundTheClock wrote:
kearly wrote:
So yeah, this game was very emotional. It was probably the most emotional game I've experienced in the regular season since the Giants game in 2005. What a great win.


Totally agree. The funny thing is, I was all centered and serene just before kickoff. I was convinced I would handle this game calmly. Then the Lynch fumble on the 1st drive... and all calmness was out the window.


And then Wilson catches it.

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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Bears game
 Post Posted: Sun Dec 02, 2012 6:29 pm 
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Great post kearly, as per usual. ;-)


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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Bears game
 Post Posted: Sun Dec 02, 2012 6:35 pm 
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Your usual great post we all wait for. I agree I think RW is a saviour for us, I have said so in a back handed post, but god I love that he puts this team on his sholders and carry's us.

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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Bears game
 Post Posted: Sun Dec 02, 2012 6:43 pm 
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You forgot to mention on the terrible officiating, the refs premature whistle on the Bears punt returners fumble where Seattle recovered the football. Such bull****.


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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Bears game
 Post Posted: Sun Dec 02, 2012 6:53 pm 
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therealjohncarlson wrote:
There was a front angle view that pretty clearly showed the front nose of the ball on the ground between his hands.


I know the view and what they were saying but I just wasn't seeing it. I wasn't trying to be biased either, just as a football fan I did not see anything but a catch.

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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Bears game
 Post Posted: Sun Dec 02, 2012 6:54 pm 
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I hope you don't mind me tacking on a random thought here Kearly, but to me... when Lovie went for it on 4th down on what would have been an easy FG and make it a two score game I said out loud, "THIS TEAM HAS NO RESPECT FOR YOU HAWKS!". I hope like heck that Pete was yelling at the guys at halftime that the Bears didn't respect them enough to kick a field goal, and the Hawks had the pride, fortitude, strength to stop that drive and win the ball on downs. To me that was a massive turning point because I think the Hawks felt disrespected, disgusted, etc. but also proud that they knocked Bush right back down on his butt and said "Hell no!". It was a really big blunder by Lovie no matter how much Tim Ryan liked the call. You take the points, and you absolutely do NOT give a team "in game bulletin board material" like that. I loved the response and could see when the offense came back out that they were pissed seeing that Chicago disrespected them so badly that they thought nothing of leaving points on the field and giving the ball up. That will fire you up. I saw it in Golden, RW, Sid, Marshawn, M-Rob, the whole line, Zach (who was busting his butt to get open), and of course Baldwin who outleaped everybody for a spectacular catch. It was sweet to see the team just get fed up and not take that crap lightly, because to me, that was a horsecrap call that really did show no respect, and I believe they paid for it, because the game completely turned on that one play.

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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Bears game
 Post Posted: Sun Dec 02, 2012 7:00 pm 
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SharkHawk wrote:
I hope you don't mind me tacking on a random thought here Kearly, but to me... when Lovie went for it on 4th down on what would have been an easy FG and make it a two score game I said out loud, "THIS TEAM HAS NO RESPECT FOR YOU HAWKS!". I hope like heck that Pete was yelling at the guys at halftime that the Bears didn't respect them enough to kick a field goal, and the Hawks had the pride, fortitude, strength to stop that drive and win the ball on downs. To me that was a massive turning point because I think the Hawks felt disrespected, disgusted, etc. but also proud that they knocked Bush right back down on his butt and said "Hell no!". It was a really big blunder by Lovie no matter how much Tim Ryan liked the call. You take the points, and you absolutely do NOT give a team "in game bulletin board material" like that. I loved the response and could see when the offense came back out that they were pissed seeing that Chicago disrespected them so badly that they thought nothing of leaving points on the field and giving the ball up. That will fire you up. I saw it in Golden, RW, Sid, Marshawn, M-Rob, the whole line, Zach (who was busting his butt to get open), and of course Baldwin who outleaped everybody for a spectacular catch. It was sweet to see the team just get fed up and not take that crap lightly, because to me, that was a horsecrap call that really did show no respect, and I believe they paid for it, because the game completely turned on that one play.

Great post Shark. Guessing Kearly ain't gonna mind one bit.

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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Bears game
 Post Posted: Sun Dec 02, 2012 7:01 pm 
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Another great post Kip

I still feel our tight ends need to be involved more. This game was no exception, although there was a HUGE conversion on the last drive caught by a TE IIRC.


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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Bears game
 Post Posted: Sun Dec 02, 2012 7:06 pm 
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SharkHawk wrote:
I hope you don't mind me tacking on a random thought here Kearly, but to me... when Lovie went for it on 4th down on what would have been an easy FG and make it a two score game I said out loud, "THIS TEAM HAS NO RESPECT FOR YOU HAWKS!". I hope like heck that Pete was yelling at the guys at halftime that the Bears didn't respect them enough to kick a field goal, and the Hawks had the pride, fortitude, strength to stop that drive and win the ball on downs. To me that was a massive turning point because I think the Hawks felt disrespected, disgusted, etc. but also proud that they knocked Bush right back down on his butt and said "Hell no!". It was a really big blunder by Lovie no matter how much Tim Ryan liked the call. You take the points, and you absolutely do NOT give a team "in game bulletin board material" like that. I loved the response and could see when the offense came back out that they were pissed seeing that Chicago disrespected them so badly that they thought nothing of leaving points on the field and giving the ball up. That will fire you up. I saw it in Golden, RW, Sid, Marshawn, M-Rob, the whole line, Zach (who was busting his butt to get open), and of course Baldwin who outleaped everybody for a spectacular catch. It was sweet to see the team just get fed up and not take that crap lightly, because to me, that was a horsecrap call that really did show no respect, and I believe they paid for it, because the game completely turned on that one play.



Bonehead call by Lovie, I agree. They have a beat up O-Line with a banged up RB and a great defense. Take the points. However, there are some teams (like SF) where I think you have to go for it purely based on the size and athleticism of their O-Line.


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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Bears game
 Post Posted: Sun Dec 02, 2012 7:20 pm 
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Great write up.One thing I disagree with is the Oline.In my opinion they just maybe the week link of the team.Wilson and Lynch have masked the problems we have had for most of the season.
Wilson is too valuable to us to have him scrambling so much.His health is definitly worth investing more picks in this Oline


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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Bears game
 Post Posted: Sun Dec 02, 2012 9:13 pm 
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I lost faith in NBA officiating when Phoenix beat the Sonics in the 7th game of the Western Conference Finals so that Charles Barkley could play Jordan. The Suns went to the line four times as often as Seattle. A referee from that game is now in Federal prison.

When I see officiating in a game like this, I just have to wonder.


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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Bears game
 Post Posted: Sun Dec 02, 2012 9:18 pm 
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Loved the read option. Told my buddy they could run that all day and it would work, and it did for 70+ yards! Wish they would have done more of that last week when Miami was keying in on Lynch for limited gains. Certainly does add that extra dimension


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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Bears game
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 1:02 am 
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On the broadcast I loved how Ryan did not notice Red Bryant was starting and called him out until I believe the 3rd possesion.The starting LB core-A rookie and 2 second year guys.I noticed Malcom Smith all night.Thought he was very good,I also like him as a blitzer.WT3 I noticed a few times but not really in a bad way.He seemed OK.I would go with him over Tru next week even if Tru is healthy.


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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Bears game
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 1:40 am 
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Holy wall of text batman! :shock: Excellent post, but I think it may be in competition for the longest you've done yet. :mrgreen:

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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Bears game
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 2:04 am 
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SharkHawk wrote:
I hope you don't mind me tacking on a random thought here Kearly, but to me... when Lovie went for it on 4th down on what would have been an easy FG and make it a two score game I said out loud, "THIS TEAM HAS NO RESPECT FOR YOU HAWKS!". I hope like heck that Pete was yelling at the guys at halftime that the Bears didn't respect them enough to kick a field goal, and the Hawks had the pride, fortitude, strength to stop that drive and win the ball on downs. To me that was a massive turning point because I think the Hawks felt disrespected, disgusted, etc. but also proud that they knocked Bush right back down on his butt and said "Hell no!". It was a really big blunder by Lovie no matter how much Tim Ryan liked the call. You take the points, and you absolutely do NOT give a team "in game bulletin board material" like that. I loved the response and could see when the offense came back out that they were pissed seeing that Chicago disrespected them so badly that they thought nothing of leaving points on the field and giving the ball up. That will fire you up. I saw it in Golden, RW, Sid, Marshawn, M-Rob, the whole line, Zach (who was busting his butt to get open), and of course Baldwin who outleaped everybody for a spectacular catch. It was sweet to see the team just get fed up and not take that crap lightly, because to me, that was a horsecrap call that really did show no respect, and I believe they paid for it, because the game completely turned on that one play.

It doesn't have anything to do with disrespect. Going for it on 4th-and-1 in the opponents' territory is almost always the correct call. Here is a great article on Chip Kelly and aggressive playcalling. It was a great call by Lovie even though it didn't work. The momentum shift theory doesn't hold here either considering the Seahawks didn't even reach midfield on the ensuing possession.


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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Bears game
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 3:06 am 
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jewhawk wrote:
It doesn't have anything to do with disrespect. Going for it on 4th-and-1 in the opponents' territory is almost always the correct call. Here is a great article on Chip Kelly and aggressive playcalling. It was a great call by Lovie even though it didn't work. The momentum shift theory doesn't hold here either considering the Seahawks didn't even reach midfield on the ensuing possession.


Don't misunderstand me, I agree with you in spirit- I think teams are generally too conservative and should go for 4th down more often in certain situations.

That said, Chicago on the season is around 40% on 4th down tries. They had not been running the ball well at that point in the game either and Seattle's run defense is very good. If we accept the 40% number as meaningful, then that means they were risking 3 points for a 40% chance to *maybe* get 7. Except that the odds are actually lower than even that- because even after they convert they'd still need to finish the drive and score. Maybe they have a turnover or maybe they end up kicking a fieldgoal later in the drive and the risk was for naught.

The further you are from the end zone, the harder it is to justify going for it (unless you are in a 4 down game situation, obviously). That's because the further you are from the endzone, the lower your odds are that you'll actually get that TD. So going for it on 4th and 1 at the 5 yard line is a lot better than going for 4th and 1 at the 25 yard line. The exception to that is if a field goal is not realistic, so going for it at the 40 could be a smart move as a punt doesn't get you much and the reward of a first down easily outweighs the reward of a 20-39 yard punt.

The 4th down play in question was at the Seattle 15. That's iffy if you ask me. If they do convert, Chicago's red zone TD rate is 51% for the season. For simplicity lets assume that if Chicago makes the 1st but doesn't score a TD that they get the FG attempt. A 40% of conversion x a 51% chance of finishing the deal is just 20%. So there is a 20% chance the gamble pays off, a roughly 20% chance of breaking even (they convert but kick the FG anyway), and a 60% chance of the gamble backfiring.

I do think that the gamble is worth it in certain situations. If it's 4th and goal at the 1 yard line then the risk is worth it because you're basically talking a 40% chance of a TD in that situation and even if you lose, the Seahawks will likely 3 and out at their own one and give you good field position back. I think it's also worth it at the 35-40 range because FGs that long are about about as unlikely as a 4th down conversion would be. And if it's just outside FG range it's definitely worth it unless you have an amazing special teams group that can reliably pin punts inside the 10.

But at the 15 yard line, I think the 60% chance of not getting the 10 point lead outweighs the 20% chance of getting a 14 point lead.


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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Bears game
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 3:36 am 
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kearly wrote:
If we accept the 40% number as meaningful,

This is where I disagree with your analysis. If the Bears true conversion rate on 4th and 1 is 40%, you're right that kicking would have been right, but their being 40% (4 of 10) on 4th downs this year potentially includes situations like 4th and 10 late in games they were trailing or other situations where conversions would be more difficult than 4th and 1. ANS wrote a detailed 4-part article a few years ago studying 4th down decisions. On part 3 of that article, there is a graph with league-wide 4th down conversion percentage based on distance to go and field position. Between the 10 and 20, the conversion percentage on 4th and 1 is approximately 75%. Maybe you can adjust that down a bit in this situation because of Seattle's strong defense, but it is still much closer to 75% than 40%.


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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Bears game
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 4:03 am 
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Awesome post and observations, as usual!

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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Bears game
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 6:12 am 
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He's back! I LOVE your writeups kearly, but the last few or maybe two, have been kinda short, dissapointing like the games you are writing about. This one was great tho, best Kearly write up of the best Hawks game so far this year!
Much respect.


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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Bears game
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 7:47 am 
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That was an awesome game. Its possible to represent the 12th at home? I was yellin and aw...

Officiating was bad but I also believe the Bears have some real play makers.

For us to be better I think we need upgrades on the offensive and defensive lines; also Tight Ends. Nothing wrong with some free agent additions.

Playmaking can be contagious. McCoy threw himself in a Tatesc kind of way. It has taken some time to establish a routine with Tate and Rice.

Maybe next year camp will emphasize more the routine and less recycled players.

Good show.

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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Bears game
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 8:11 am 
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[quote="kearly"
-Something about getting screwed by the refs makes you want to win a game even more, and even before then this was like a playoff game for Seattle. So yeah, this game was very emotional. It was probably the most emotional game I've experienced in the regular season since the Giants game in 2005. What a great win.[/quote]


Yea, I almost forgot who we were playing, the Bears or the Refs, almost like a Superbowl repeat I watched some time ago. :sarcasm_off:

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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Bears game
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 8:16 am 
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therealjohncarlson wrote:

I know the view and what they were saying but I just wasn't seeing it. I wasn't trying to be biased either, just as a football fan I did not see anything but a catch.


As long as the receiver has possession of the ball, it can touch the ground. The receiver can't use the ground to 'make the catch', though.

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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Bears game
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 8:27 am 
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Great write up as always. I believe the rule to be that a 15 yard penalty only overrides a 5 yard penalty. It offsets a 10 yard penalty. They call it the 5/15 rule.


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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Bears game
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 9:13 am 
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therealjohncarlson wrote:
Aros wrote:
Good stuff per usual kearly. I politely disagree with you about the Edwards TD overturn call. I watched that play from every angle they gave us and I simply could not see any evidence to overturn the call. His hands were under the ball when it arrived and had control the whole time. If the ball moved around a bit, it's moot as his hands were still between the ball and the grass. However, regardless, I agree they did not have enough clear evidence to overturn the call yet they did any way. The officiating today hasn't been this blatantly one-sided since SBXL*.

How fun is it going to be to get to root on Russell Wilson for the next several years? Holy cow I'm positively glowing.


There was a front angle view that pretty clearly showed the front nose of the ball on the ground between his hands.


The ball CAN touch the ground as long as he maintains possession. It's the Burt Emmauel rule that came from the Tampa Bay losing the the Rams in the NFC championship game in 1999. He had his hands under the ball.

Frankly I agree that it probably should have been an incomplete. However, the initial call was TD and I don't think was indisputable evidence that he didn't maintain possession of the ball. From everything I saw he had his hands under it the entire time and controled dispite the nose touching the ground.


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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Bears game
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 9:16 am 
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Kearly, Chicago's 40% on 4th downs is misleading because surely all of their 4th down attempts haven't been 4th and inches. Their odds of making it on that play had to be a decent bit better than 40%.


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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Bears game
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 1:23 pm 
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kearly wrote:
Just after Brandon Marshall somehow hauled in that unbelievable 56 yard completion near the end of regulation, my dad turned to me and said "well, if Seattle misses the playoffs, this is the play we'll look back on." Of course, Seattle could look back at a lot of plays this season (I'll spare you the recap) and wonder. He was right though. As tough as the Stafford comeback was, as tough as the endings in Arizona and Miami were, what Chicago did in the final 20 seconds of regulation was essentially unprecedented. The NFL was stunned when Atlanta pulled a similar play to beat Carolina, but that drive began with 45 seconds on the clock. Chicago had just 20.


If I'm dissecting the game film and looking for concerns, Brandon Marshall's production yesterday would be right near the top of my list. Do you realize that Chicago's receiving corps as a whole had 17 catches ... and Marshall had 10 of those. Essentially, he WAS Chicago's passing offense (exactly as I had said in the Preview thread). To me, that is highly concerning and Jerry Brewer was right on the money to throw out the whole PED question today. I figured with Trufant's absence it would be addition by subtraction -- but that wasn't the case. Trufant according to Stats Inc had a burn rate of 72.4% -- the 2nd Worst starting 3rd CB in all the league. To me, I'm starting to think long and hard about the need to draft another nickel CB (especially given the impending suspensions).

kearly wrote:
And if Seattle had lost in overtime, that's all we'd be talking about. It was the perfect exclamation point on a growing theme in recent weeks: that Seattle's defense is more of a cause for concern than the offense is. Jay Cutler is one of the most sacked QBs in the NFL. He was not sacked today and was barely touched. The secondary again played too much zone defense and allowed Brandon Marshall to embarrass them on numerous occasions.


How the heck Cutler's jersey remained clean is absolutely beyond me. That was a very patchwork offensive line that came in to yesterday's contest having given up 35 Sacks (3rd Worst in the NFL) ... and 67 hits on the QB (5th worst). YET, Seattle's defense couldn't touch him for the most part. With Red Bryant's plantar fasciitis and the D Line's performance yesterday, I'm thinking Defensive Line is increasingly becoming a top priority moving in to this year's NFL Draft.

kearly wrote:
But even saying that, if Seattle had lost- I would have pulled the "officiating sucked" card. Some people wouldn't want to hear it- after all Seattle's defense did almost everything they could to lose this game. I don't like blaming the officials, in fact I go out of my way to point them out when they have a solid outing. But today was just awful. Not just awful, but one sided, with all the terrible calls going against Seattle and often at critical times.


Hard to disagree with any of the bad calls that you mentioned. They were unbelievably bad IMO. I know refs are supposed to be neutral, but most of those really smacked of homer calls to me.

kearly wrote:
Today Seattle faced a great defense with a good QB and a great WR. They faced a team with an 8-3 record that is in contention for a bye. This game was on the road at 10am. And during this game the defense played poorly and the NFL went to WWE referees. Yet despite all those things, Seattle still somehow won the game, for one reason and one reason only.

Russell Wilson.


I've made no bones about it -- he willed them to a victory yesterday. It's like he was saying, "We are NOT going down today!" And he took responsibility to win that game completely on his shoulders. He has come of age. If I could pick Colbert's Alpha Dog of the Week, it would be Wilson -- 2 game winning games against what was arguably the NFL's best defense IN CHICAGO -- are you kidding me?!? Future Super Bowl winning QB -- absolutely I got that feeling -- felt like I was watching a future HOF'er.

kearly wrote:
Doug Baldwin had a nice game. I sure hope he's okay.


Doug Baldwin (to me) was one of the unsung heroes of the game. He was absolutely CLUTCH yesterday and a HUGE reason that the Seahawks won yesterday. People are going to focus on Rice and Tate -- and rightfully so. But, this team doesn't win without:

A key 3rd Down catch for 20 yards right before Halftime (lead to a FG)
2 clutch 3rd Down catches on that 4th Quarter drive that lead to Tate's TD.
Another clutch 3rd down catch in OT on 3rd down and 10. His catch came right before Rice's game winner ... but it doesn't happen without Baldwin's catch.

That was the Doug Baldwin we saw all last year ... and it was very good to have that Baldwin back yesterday.


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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Bears game
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 1:31 pm 
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Hawkscanner wrote:
Doug Baldwin (to me) was one of the unsung heroes of the game. He was absolutely CLUTCH yesterday and a HUGE reason that the Seahawks won yesterday. People are going to focus on Rice and Tate -- and rightfully so. But, this team doesn't win without:

A key 3rd Down catch for 20 yards right before Halftime (lead to a FG)
2 clutch 3rd Down catches on that 4th Quarter drive that lead to Tate's TD.
Another clutch 3rd down catch in OT on 3rd down and 10. His catch came right before Rice's game winner ... but it doesn't happen without Baldwin's catch.

That was the Doug Baldwin we saw all last year ... and it was very good to have that Baldwin back yesterday.

Good post scanner. We've all been waiting for the DB of last year to show up and he did yesterday.

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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Bears game
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 1:46 pm 
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Great post Kearly. The facemask call on Irvin was a bad call. The Chicago Olineman had his had on Irvin's facemask. I thought that's what they were going to call. It seemed like SBXL all over again with the amount of lobsided calls. it seemed like the Seahawks couldn't get any break. The cool thing is that the Hawks found a way to overcome that. In the past, they would have succumbed to this but they kept at it and found a way to win. Nice to see.


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 Post subject: Re: Random Thoughts™ on the Bears game
 Post Posted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 3:11 am 
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MidwestHawker wrote:
Kearly, Chicago's 40% on 4th downs is misleading because surely all of their 4th down attempts haven't been 4th and inches. Their odds of making it on that play had to be a decent bit better than 40%.


Well, teams usually aren't going for it on 4th and 10. Most 4th down tries are short (or desperate). Granted, the real number is probably neither 40% nor 75%, since neither number accounts for Seattle's 4th down defense (which is pretty good) or their excellent run defense in short yardage situations. At best we are left with guesses and approximations.

Hawkscanner wrote:
If I could pick Colbert's Alpha Dog of the Week, it would be Wilson


Hah! Nice reference. That gets a tip of the hat.


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