The word "mediocre" has certainly had it's turn quite a bit the last 24 hours. I guess because Seattle is 6-5. I think that's quite silly, personally. Granted, Seattle's remaining season is in jeopardy thanks to the DB suspensions we're facing, but let's look back at the first 11 games.

Some people say we are mediocre. This assertion is based on the team's record and it's home/road split. It is most certainly not based on talent or on statistics. Seattle was #4 in DVOA before the Miami game, they were #2 in defense DVOA, and they are widely regarded as one of the most talented young teams in the NFL. Even after this loss- a loss I'd put squarely on the defense- Seattle will still likely have a top 5 defense for the season through 11 games. No, this argument is not based on those aspects. It's based on a 6-5 record. "You are what your record says you are."

I get that. I also think that saying is a load of crap. Ask stat guru Bill James what he'd think of a 16 game sample and he'd probably tell you that the W-L outcomes would be next to meaningless for determining how good a team actually is. The sample size needs to be much, much larger to avoid statistical noise.

But my feelings aside, here we are at 6-5. That's not great. Let's assume for a moment that your record really does say what you are. Let's also forget that Seattle's first 8 games were very tough, and that we've played one more road game than home game at this point, or that in August we'd be happy with 6-5 given the difficulty of the 1st half of this season. And let's also forget that Seattle is just one of three NFL teams (Patriots, Falcons, Seahawks) not to suffer any multiscore losses all season. Even the Packers, Texans, and 49ers have been blown out at times this year. That said, even just focusing on the 6-5 aspect, I'm not really seeing a compelling case that this team is mediocre.

Why? Because last year's Superbowl champion finished the regular season with the basically the same winning percentage that the Seahawks currently have, and they were nowhere near as well rounded as this Seahawks team or as good statistically. As much as it sucks losing on the road, nearly all west coast teams throughout NFL history have struggled on the road. Compare that to the champion Giants, who struggled AT HOME. At least the Seahawks have an excuse.

Further, Seattle has led in every road game. And they led in the 4th quarter in 3 of their 5 losses. To go 1-5 on the road in those circumstances is extremely unusual, it is definitely not normal and not sustainable. This is exactly why sample sizes matter. Everyone knows that anything can happen in one game, but it's almost just as true that anything can happen in only a few games too. Like Arizona starting 4-0 or Philly starting 3-0. Outcomes should be treated with suspicion when used for analysis, even more so when in small samples.

I think what we are seeing this season is a young team that is still playing young. The penalties and the key mistakes to barely lose games are evidence of that. I also think that this team, while very good, has room for improvement. The upgrade potential over Trufant and Hill is considerably large, especially if we got a pro-bowl talent at either of those spots. The upgrade potential at Jeron Johnson's 3rd safety spot is significant. There is room for improvement in the pass rush, even though it's one of the NFL's better pass rushes this season. To a lesser degree, there is room for improvement at WR, TE, and OL on offense. And what does this FO do other than constantly making its roster better?

I seem to remember a lot of brutally close losses during the Holmgren years too, especially on the road. Right now, this team is basically as good as any team Holmgren ever fielded save his 2005 team, and by seasons end it would not surprise me if the 2012 team was better statistically. And those Seahawks teams played a joke of a schedule.

If nothing else, we are a contending team in a very good NFC. Sometimes teams "underachieve" and win fewer games than their level of play deserved. Last year's team had 8.2 "estimated wins" per FO but only won 7 games. They also underachieved. That said, the 2010, 2009, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004, and 2003 Seahawks seasons were all overachieving years who's win totals exceeded their estimated wins, meaning that Seattle won more games than their statistics indicated. So in a way, it could be argued that the law of averages demands we have a couple seasons where the team suffers more than it's share of tough, close losses. This just ended up being one of those years.

Hopefully this team can get luckier or improve to the point where luck doesn't factor quite as often. I'm starting to think that Seattle is beginning to push the boundaries of how unclutch a team can be on the road. I mean, Wilson has a passer rating around 110 in his last two road games combined and is 0-2. At some point, Seattle is going to start winning those road games. It's hard to play that well at QB and still lose the game, especially with the supporting cast the Seahawks boast.

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"I believe there’s merit to the idea that once something in life becomes conventional, it’s no longer the safest path to success." -Matt Waldman
"If everyone's thinking alike, no one's thinking." -Bill Walsh

A pretty good post kearly, but you're preaching to the choir. It's going to fall on deaf ears for people locked in the constant state of Eeyore.

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My single greatest contribution to the board: "42-13" (formerly 24-14)

A lot of the frustration is from the fact that we are "this" close to winning these games on the road and yet can't pull them out. I honestly believe if we were getting blown out I think you would see less angst around here. The only thing I will say is our pass rush seems to dissapear on the road when it is most needed...not sure if it is scheme, tiredness, or what.

Overall though - I do believe we have the talent to beat anybody in the NFL on a consistent basis (and we have already proved it this year). That alone is an exciting feeling.

Good thoughts there. Cheers me up a bit. I felt like this prior to this week, but it was just so darn painful to see the D fail again.

One thing I do like is that our biggest issue on defense can be solved by upgrading spots that are up-gradable. We have one year contract guys in Hill and Trufant. Curious to see how Kam continues to play. He needs to step in coverage as well. The running defense game is a different animal, I'm not totally sure the problem. I feel like over aggressiveness plays a role, but we are set up pretty well to defend the run, scheme-wise. Perhaps an inexperienced Wagner in the middle or Red being less effective with his foot problem, or just general fatigue as the season goes.

I didn't like getting beat by the run and having our running game get shut down. That's like our bread and butter on both sides of the ball. It just felt a little different I guess.

"At some point, Seattle is going to start winning those road games". Devil's Advocate -- says who? There's no evidence to support that. It's amazing we found a way to lose the last two road games when our rookie QB has been so damn good. Why all of a sudden is that going to change? If anything, I'd say that the pattern of finding a way to lose in the end supports the opposite.

Also, I respect your homework and statistical analysis - but the whole DVOA is ... well, I'm not a fan. ONLY WINS AND LOSSES MATTER WHEN IT COMES TO MAKING THE PLAYOFFS. I could care less what our DVOA is if we end up 8-8. It's not going to make me feel better. There's something to be said for stepping away from the stat machine and just watching the reality. FACT: We don't force turnovers or get sacks on the road, and our defense is showing a nasty habit of getting gashed in the run. We are also vanilla on offense, and never have an answer for the Titus Young and Chris Clay's of the world -- even when everyone knows teams are not going to attack Browner or Sherman. Teams are taking advantage of our interior run defense, our poor LB coverage and are lack of consistent pass rush. That's a lot to fix all of a sudden to change these road losses.

Overall, I'm personally optimistic about the team. But let's not shy away from what ultimately matters - the Wins. All the other stats get tucked away in the record book. Wins is the gateway to the playoffs. I think, once again, a lot of people got sucked into the possibility that we are "there" after our big early season wins. I don't think we are quite yet. We still have a shot to make the playoffs, but if we do - it's going to be a road game.

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@SeahawkGreg

YEAH, WE HAVE A DUDE NAMED CHRISTINE...DEAL WITH IT!

Wins and losses are what matter. But wins and losses aren't the best predictor of the future.

That makes sense right?

They are. More losses will at some point get a coach fired.

I don't think Paul Allen hired Pete Carroll because he liked his DVOA.

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Yes, I agree. But that supports my point ... if the angle is "should we be optimistic FOR THE FUTURE"?, then the answer is most definitely yes. Russell Wilson alone gives me a lot of optimism.

Where I breakaway is "should we be optimistic FOR THIS SEASON"? And for me, the answer is no. We just can't seem to solve the vexing road issue, for now.

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@SeahawkGreg

YEAH, WE HAVE A DUDE NAMED CHRISTINE...DEAL WITH IT!

I could happily accept a struggling offense, even a craptasticly boring one. It is the defense I wanted to be our strong suit. Relatives from Buffalo and Chicago both comment on how aggressive and physical our defense was. They loved the big corners. But the weaknesses exposed in our defense has not been fixed, so while seeing growth in the offense a new leak has sprung.

I wouldn't say mediocre but rather uninspired efforts from the defense has cost the team in its efforts to rise above the mediocre zone. Season is running out but it has been entertaining. Heartbreaking but entertaining. Still a chance, so will wait until the end of the season to put it all into perspective.

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"Pray to the LORD now...Seattle are a bunch of heathen atheist Canadians."
NFL GM: "How do you stop a Seahawk? Take away his doctor's prescription pad."”

Well said.

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@SeahawkGreg

YEAH, WE HAVE A DUDE NAMED CHRISTINE...DEAL WITH IT!

I think poeple just want to moan and gripe. yes, I was ticked off that once againt he defense choked. YOu could argue 3 of 5 losses are on the defense- AZ (letting Kolb march it down the field to the go ahead TD is on the defense- despite the final drive), DET, MIA. In all cases our team didn't response well in the clutch moments.

It's inconceivable to me that the defense allowed Tannehill and Co to drive from their own 6 to our 30 yard line with relative ease. Tru was getting gashed and needs to be replaced. The pass rush looked to be a beat away from sacks and he'd throw it for a big gain.

We are an exceptional team at home, and only an average team on the road. I say average because all of the losses have been within 1 score. Below Average to me would mean getting demolished on the road, which hasn't happened. We've just has some bad luck closing out games on the road.

Kearly, let us know when stats get you in the playoffs. You have produced a very elaborate example of rationalizing losing. Stats can tell you why a team loses or wins but stats are not infallible. Penalties and turnovers are stat killers.

Those who are comfortable with being average and not making the playoffs love stats. To them it's all to end all. But that is not reality. Getting to the Super Bowl is purely wins and loses nothing more.

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...the cockpit is quiet, the stars are bright, it kinda feels like church in here tonight....

Why does it have to be about rationalizing losing? There are a ton of people on here who are demanding that PC be on the hot seat and who want to see his coordinators fired. In such instances, producing facts such as the one kearly presents, are important evaluation tools for the future of the franchise. It's the short-sighted "Use your eyes" concept which is the more deadly of the two to a football team.

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My single greatest contribution to the board: "42-13" (formerly 24-14)

Based on one win out of 6 attempts we are far below average. Stats and good intentions won't change that record. Coaches are fired and playoffs missed by the wins and loses not stats.

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...the cockpit is quiet, the stars are bright, it kinda feels like church in here tonight....

I don't think the team itself is mediocre, I'm just worried that the head coach is. Despite all the stats, we're still looking at finishing around .500, right around where all of Carroll's teams have finished.

Change the record already.

6-5. Read this, and the other competing teams schedule: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap100000 ... -wild-card

Sorry for disagreeing with the Think Tank.

No i wont change the record. I have said that I do not want Pete fired so dont act like I am asking for his head.

Next year? Yes I will be if we are not to where I think we will be. And trust me, I fully understand that means starting over, which is something I do not want to go thru yet again. But I will not be happy with 500 seasons into perpituity.

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You might as well be calling for his head. Every post you've made since Miami has speculated over pending doom. Apart from being thoroughly depressing to read over and over again, it's unnecessary. We're 6-5 and leading the race for the post season among the wild card teams. New Orleans go to Atlanta on Sunday. Tampa Bay to Denver. Minnesota plays Green Bay. Even if we're 6-6 this time next week, chances are we'll STILL be the #6 seed.

And this 'think tank' stuff is really daft. I speak for myself, nobody else. It's the opposite of calling someone a hater, but equally 'high school'.

Dude. You should know by now that I am simply not going to change my tune because you or someone else is depressed by it. Take my unnecessary posts, file them in the garbage where you and many others feel they belong and move on.

Dont put me on ignore though because I kinda have always liked you.



(the think tank thing is out of repect)

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I still say that these statements make it sound like we're losing by 20 points every road game. The reality is that that this team has played well enough to be literally one play away from a win in every single road game, and frustratingly enough, we just haven't been able to come up with that one play.

That distinction doesn't change our record, and it doesn't improve our chances of making the playoffs, no. I grant that.

But it DOES carry huge implications for predicting the rest of the regular season, for our chances in the playoffs should we make it, for our draft needs this season (Trufant's replacement is already on the roster, folks), and especially for the prospects of Pete Carroll and his coordinators.

If you want to talk about our playoff chances, then our record is all that matters. If you want to make sweeping judgments on the abstract quality of this team, its chances in 2013, and the future of its coaches, you'd better be ready to bring more than two numbers into the discussion.

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