Interesting Wilson/Sanchez comparison

The biggest question about LCF continues to be the importance of games started. This is still the most important variable in the equation. As I explained in last year's article, any quarterback projection system based on past performance is going to highly value collegiate games started. From 1990 to 2005, it was far and away the most important variable in determining the success of highly-drafted quarterbacks.

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The Asterisk

Russell Wilson, Wisconsin: 2,650 DYAR

Important stats: 48 games started, 60.7% completion rate, senior passer rating rose 64.1 points.

I would be remiss if I didn't at least mention the ridiculous projection that the Lewin Career Forecast spits out for Russell Wilson. Yes, that projection is even higher than the one for Robert Griffin. No, it doesn't particularly mean that Wilson is a sleeper prospect. There are a few things going on here that the LCF is just not designed to account for.
First and foremost, the change in Wilson's passer rating between his junior and senior years is insane. Remember that earlier I noted that Griffin had a larger senior year passer rating increase than any quarterback in our data set? Well, Wilson's senior year passer rating increase is 40 percent larger than Griffin's. But does it matter when the quarterback is playing in a completely different offense for a completely different school in his last year of college eligibility? At Wisconsin, Wilson got to pick apart defenses that were concentrating on stopping Montee Ball. At North Carolina State, I doubt opponents were quaking in their boots at the thought of Mustafa Greene and Dean Haynes. It goes without saying that there isn't another quarterback in the LCF data set who transferred between his junior and senior years.

There's also the issue of height, another data point where there's nobody in our data set that can be compared to Wilson. At first, it seems strange that LCF doesn't include a variable to discount short quarterbacks, but when you look at the data set that went into creating LCF the reasons are pretty clear. There's no penalty for being 5-foot-11, like Wilson is, because there are no quarterbacks in the data set who are shorter than 6-foot-0. There's no penalty for being only 6-foot-0 because the two quarterbacks who are 6-foot-0 are Drew Brees and Michael Vick.
Quarterbacks who are Wilson's height simply don't get drafted in the first three rounds of the draft, period. The FO master database only includes three quarterbacks who are below six feet tall: Seneca Wallace, Joe Hamilton, and Flutie. That's a fourth-round pick, a seventh-round pick, and an 11th round pick from 25 years ago. Even if we go all the way back to 1991, the only quarterbacks taken in the first six rounds at 6-foot-0 or shorter were Vick, Brees, Wallace, Joe Germaine (fourth round, 1999), and Troy Smith (fifth round, 2007).
Wilson too will probably be drafted on the third day of the draft, round four or later, which would render his absurdly high LCF moot.

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peachesenregalia":3i3mq9sb said:

sc85sis":3i3mq9sb said:

Wilson was a four-year starter in college. Sanchez started 16 games. I also think Wilson has an even temperament whereas Mark can be too emotional at times, and that has hurt him.

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Sanchez could and should have stayed in College to gain more experience. In his arrogance, he thought he was ready and he very clearly wasn't.

Wilson definitely has a better temperament, the guy seems completely unflappable. You simply can't coach that kind of thing. What an amazing 3rd round find Wilson truly was!

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peachesenregalia":3sq1w9m6 said:

sc85sis":3sq1w9m6 said:

Wilson was a four-year starter in college. Sanchez started 16 games. I also think Wilson has an even temperament whereas Mark can be too emotional at times, and that has hurt him.

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Sanchez could and should have stayed in College to gain more experience. In his arrogance, he thought he was ready and he very clearly wasn't.

Wilson definitely has a better temperament, the guy seems completely unflappable. You simply can't coach that kind of thing. What an amazing 3rd round find Wilson truly was!

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peachesenregalia":2byygb87 said:

Hasselbeck":2byygb87 said:

I really think the Jets ruined any chance Mark Sanchez had at being a good QB. Pete was right, he should have stayed another year.. but whats done is done.

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Look dude, we get it, you hate Russell Wilson.....sheesh....

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EastCoastHawksFan":318teiwg said:

I was very happy with the Curry pick ( still am , especially bc it meant no Sanchez) Then when the Jets traded up and got sanchez i couldnt stop laughing. its been an ongoing joke ever since.

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peachesenregalia":2b4qmt44 said:

Ummmm.... the Curry pick didn't set us back nearly as bad as the Jets taking Sanchez that high.

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peachesenregalia":1pvii98g said:

Sgt. Largent":1pvii98g said:

EastCoastHawksFan":1pvii98g said:

I was very happy with the Curry pick ( still am , especially bc it meant no Sanchez) Then when the Jets traded up and got sanchez i couldnt stop laughing. its been an ongoing joke ever since.

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I hope you're being somewhat facetious, cause the Curry pick is right up there with McGwire and Mirer for worst picks of all time.

Sanchez is a serviceable QB, and it's not all his fault. He has horrible skill players around him, and has to answer 200 Tebow questions a week.

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Ummmm.... the Curry pick didn't set us back nearly as bad as the Jets taking Sanchez that high. Curry wasn't a bad pick based on all of the available data at the time. He was considered by just about everyone to be the surest pick in that draft. Sometimes things just don't work out.

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gargantual":txpjhelu said:

I wonder what sort of things were being said pre-draft about McGwire and Mirer. Was it similar to how highly-touted Curry was, or were there some red flags that weren't noticed or ignored?

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peachesenregalia":2eu0hprd said:

didn't Mirer win OROY his first year? Am I imagining that?

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Sgt. Largent":3ckw1j8p said:

gargantual":3ckw1j8p said:

I wonder what sort of things were being said pre-draft about McGwire and Mirer. Was it similar to how highly-touted Curry was, or were there some red flags that weren't noticed or ignored?

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Mirer was highly touted behind Bledsoe in the 1993 draft, so hard to criticize that pick. But McGwire? From what I remember, pretty much the only person who wanted him was Behring.

.........and yeah Curry was considered the "safest" pick of that draft.

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Wilson's third-down passer rating over the past five games has been 103.4, which ranks fifth in the NFL over that span. That is up from 45.4 over his first four games

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sadhappy":2heluxi3 said:

The football outsiders dudes have a formula they've been playing with for a few years that tries to forecast the career success of college quarterbacks coming into the NFL. One of the major factors in the equation is number of games started at the college level. Guys who don't start a lot of games and end up starting in the NFL have a very poor track record apparently.

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gargantual":1nvdvuuz said:

And we all know Behring's motives now in retrospect (ie tanking the team to pave the way for moving to LA), so not bad judgement on his part but intentional perhaps? (I don't know a whole lot about that era).

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