Expectations & Perspective (long one-enter at your own risk)

FlyingGreg

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Now that the dust has settled from the Lions game and emotions have cooled...I got to thinking. Should we really be upset with a 4-4 record at this point? As many have pointed out in here, a lot of us looked at the first half schedule and "hoped" we could get out of it at .500.

We've played a very tough schedule - not just the opponents but the circumstance (like having to play the 49ers on the road on a Thursday Night, teams having extra time to prepare for us because of scheduling, etc.), 5 of the first 8 on the road including only one in the last month. The Cardinals are now arriving in the hard part of their schedule and look what is happening -- four straight losses with road games looming in Green Bay and Atlanta. We've faced a particularly offensive heavy opponent slate so far (Dallas, Green Bay, New England and Detroit were all considered very good to elite offenses and you have to account for any Cam Newton offense).

We have started two rookie QBs -- Russell Wilson, obviously, but also Bobby Wagner at the "Mike" - the 'QB of the defense'. There are growing pains with rookies.

We labored under the three-headed QB circus well into camp which had an impact on the cohesion of the offense. We also have missed an extremely vital piece of our offensive identity, Doug Baldwin, for most of the reps since camp started and into the season.

10 QBs passed for 4000 yards in 2011...and we've already played 5 of them (Brady, Stafford, Rodgers, Romo, Newton). The fact that our defense still ranks high in both yards and points allowed speaks volumes, although obviously we have seen them struggle a bit the last few weeks.

We rolled the dice on the WR position, even looking at guys like T.O. and Antonio Bryant, and hoped we would have enough to make a difference. That's open to interpretation so far (and you all know how I feel about the position outside of Rice and Baldwin). I hold Pete and John accountable for this - not saying there were obvious moves we could have made especially in the draft, but at some point they need to permanently fix the position. I suspect Year 4 of the plan is where they are going to take care of it.

I think the early back-to-back wins over Dallas and Green Bay may have created a false sense of the true status of the franchise, especially after the "miracle" way we won the Packers game that might have created the illusion of "this is a special season". I'm not saying it's NOT a special season, I just wonder if we got suckered into the hype a little.

I won't argue with those that are frustrated with the WAY we have lost close games. I share your frustrations, because a few plays here and there and we might be 6-2 or even 7-1 right now. There are glaring things we need to fix - 3rd down defense and creating more turnovers primarily, IMO. Watching Detroit burn the last 5 mins of the clock and march 80 yards to win in the last :20 of that game was a kick in the junk - but I really hope it gets the attention of Pete, Gus Bradley and the defense and it's something we look back on as a learning point and not a trend setter.

But we are also seeing Wilson getting better and better, and while he may never be a top-5 QB in the league he fixes his mistakes and shows improvement and the offense is showing tantalizing signs of its potential with a few tweaks here and there. Look at it this way -- remember all the threads in the first few weeks about Wilson being indecisive, not staying in the pocket and missing open receivers? You don't see those now, and for a good reason.

Of our four losses, only one really makes me shake my head after further inspection - St. Louis. But even then, we were playing on a short week coming off a very emotional and controversial win over Green Bay, and there's no doubt the Rams are much more competitive. The first loss against Arizona? Week 1...on the road...a rookie QB's first start -- all bets were off, and yet we had a chance to win it. There's certainly no shame in losing in San Francisco on a very short week, against a 49ers team coming off an embarassing home loss to the G Men. There is also no shame in losing to a cornered/desperate Detroit team that came out trying to salvage their season, in their house.

Losses suck - but they are not the Jim Mora Jr. era losses where we were losing by 15-20 points. We've been in EVERY game. It doesn't help the blood pressure and in some ways it seems tougher to lose the close ones, when we can see the "W" in the grasp. But at the very least, we have the team we have longed for -- tough and combative and not a finesse team that nobody was afraid of.

But here we are...looking at 10-6/11-5 if some things go REALLY well but certainly 9-7 at the least, I would suspect. Considering all of the above factors, is that a travesty? A lot of people want to contrast us with the 49ers, but we are not on the same point of the rebuild arc as San Francisco is. The 49ers are loaded with upper-level talent because they were bad for a long time and collected a lot of top draft picks that enabled them to draft the cornerstones of their team. The Seahawks, however, are usually in that middle-of-the-road status and have not had the same ability to ascend as quickly (IMO). This by know means is meant to take a shot at the 49ers - I give them credit for building that team, but let's be fair - they have had a LOT of ammunition to do it. The decade of poor performance before Harbaugh arrived was fertile ground for them to acquire the likes of Alex Smith, Frank Gore, Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, Patrick Willis and Aldon Smith.

Just wondering aloud, boys and girls...fire away.
 

drdiags

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Great post and I have nothing to add at the moment but will try adding something of value as it develops. These guys just need to not kick the home-cooking and see if they can do something with the last 3 road games.

8 games went quickly yet took forever.
 

EastCoastHawksFan

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Im very happy with this team. We have a chance every single week no matter who we play.

what else could we ask for?
 

jlwaters1

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Great post. I agree. It is really frustrating losing, especially when the cornerstone of your team folds like a tent. I think the offenses production in 2 of the last 3 weeks has been very encouraging and I would hope to see a very good game against the Vikings. they are ripe for the taking, yet they are very good. If we can get to the bye week with a 6-4 record-- Jet's is also very winnable I think we'll be very happy with where we are.

The encouraging part is our 3 road games are very winable. I hope we can kick the road bug and win 2 of those 3.

10 wins this year, regardless if we make the playoffs will be a success IMO. 9 wins is what I expect, anything below that I'll be extremely dissapointed. I too beleive they will restock our WR/TE through the draft or by other means.
 

AROS

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Good stuff Greg...I agree with your points. I do think that the Packers/Cowboys wins set us up for perhaps unrealistic expectations on how "special" this season could be. What a spectacular finish to the franchise it could be, what, with the Mayans coming back to blow us all to Hell.

;)

From a blood pressure perspective, I HATE these close games that come down to the final second. Yuck. It may be good entertainment for some, but for me it's a one-way ticket to Palpitation City. If we are going to win, let it be decisive so I can sit back and enjoy the game without the aortic flippy flops (that's the medical term I'm sure). Or if we are going to lose, don't keep my hopes up through much of the game only to crush my hopes and dreams with a gloriously disgusting display of soft zone garbage.

4-4 is a microcosm of our history, no? Sure we've lost more than 8 games, and won more, but I bet if you go back and look at our complete history, it would probably balance out to around 8-8. So at 4-4, history seems to suggest that we are most likely looking at an 8-8 season when all is said and done. That's making the mostly large assumption that we will win most of the rest of our home games, and lose most if not the rest of our away games. Sure we could easily go 9-7 and with some luck 10-6 even. As we know, the games are almost always decided by one play or one series in a game.

I think I am disappointed most in the defense. We all had them pegged and primed to be Top 5, and while certainly they could still end up Top 5, I've just seen some real disturbing trends the past few weeks that elite defenses don't seem to go through in the course of a dominating season. We're young, yes. But please, for the love of Brian Blades, PLEASE Mr. Bradley, call the right schemes and play MAN COVERAGE on 3rd and longs!!
 

sutz

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You might add that Detroit has been like San Fran, too. They've been drafting high for forever and have a few top talent guys on their roster, too.
 

MontanaHawk05

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Pete and John want to build this team like San Francisco, Atlanta, and and Houston. You'll notice it took a while for them to climb to the top of the pile, but now that they have, they're going to be around for a while.
 

Spleenhawk2.0

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Aros":4dr6bilk said:
4-4 is a microcosm of our history, no? Sure we've lost more than 8 games, and won more, but I bet if you go back and look at our complete history, it would probably balance out to around 8-8. So at 4-4, history seems to suggest that we are most likely looking at an 8-8 season when all is said and done. That's making the mostly large assumption that we will win most of the rest of our home games, and lose most if not the rest of our away games. Sure we could easily go 9-7 and with some luck 10-6 even. As we know, the games are almost always decided by one play or one series in a game.

I was thinking the same thing. I did a quick calculation, and you are basically right on. Making a few adjustments for the strike shortened seasons, and the two seasons the Seahawks existed prior to the 16 game schedule (only 14 games their first two years), the Seahawks have averaged 7.62 victories per season.
 

redeye81

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Great post.. I do disagree about Wilson. I think he will be top 5.. i have no proof just a gut feeling.. Great post thou..
 

dbsn2420

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I'm content at the moment with 4-4, frustrated with the losses because they were all winable games, optimistic though because all 4 losses were so close. I think the next 2 games will be crucial in setting up an end of season run.
 

Jazzhawk

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Thanks Greg.... like many, I think I got my expectations too high when we were at 4-2 and had beaten some pretty good teams. That being said, I think I was most disappointed that the defense seems to have regressed the last two games. I would still have preferred a winning record at this point, and will be bitterly disappointed if we don't finish at 9-7 or better... I'm not unhappy, per se, with 4-4. But we can still be better, and that is where I expect this team to go in the second half of the season, especially with 5 home games out of the 8 remaining.

Anyway, good, level-headed post.
 

seahawks08

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In comparison with 49ers, I agree, losing for so long they were able to draft early, but just to look from another point of view, how is GB doing so well, Denver, New England all of these teams that never fell below to draft early. I think our draft picks before Pete and John needs to be a factor, as we see draft picks early may not always mean you get top talent.
 

49fansince70

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I think we can all agree that the 49ers offense is at best mediocre, the core of the team is the defense. The players on defense were obtained as follows:

SS Donte Whitner: FA
FS Dashon Goldson: 4th round 2007
CB Carlos Rogers: FA
CB Tarrell Brown: 5th round 2007
ILB Patrick Willis 1st round 2007
ILB NaVorro Bowman: 3rd round 2010
OLB Ahmad Brooks: FA
OLB Aldon Smith 1st round 2011
DT Ray McDonald: 3rd round 2007
DT Sopoaga: 4th round 2004
DT Justin Smith: FA

Noteworthy subs:
CB Chris Culliver: 3rd round 2011
OLB Larry Grant: 7'th round 2008
DT Rickey Jean Francoi 7'th round 2009 (backup DT/DE)

So it's mostly 3'rd and 4'th rounders, Free Agents, and two rather exceptional 1st round picks. Most of the 1st round picks were used on offense, which really hasn't worked out. So I'm not sure I'm buying into this whole 'decade of suckage resulted in top-5 team' thing (technically, it's more like 6 years of suckage, as far as players on the current roster). And from the Seahawks point of view, I can't condone using past success as a reason for current failure. Lots of teams, like the Pats, Steelers, NYG seem to keep it going year after year.
 

Hawkadeus

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Why do we have so many 49ers fans posting on here in the middle of the night, feeling the need to respond to every mention of their team? Really weird how close so many of them pay attention to this site.
 

49fansince70

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Hawkadeus":3os63qdj said:
Why do we have so many 49ers fans posting on here in the middle of the night, feeling the need to respond to every mention of their team? Really weird how close so many of them pay attention to this site.

Interesting approach. Don't attack the argument, which is clearly irrefutable, attack the poster with hyperbole. Well played, Sir, well played!
 
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