LoneHawkFan wrote:Once all of our units are performing optimally, consistently, and complimenting each other...all working parallel...we will be there.
I disagree with this. Anything can happen in the NFL. Look at the Giants last year. They won the Super Bowl despite having one of the worst defenses in the league and the worst rushing attack. Clearly not all of their units were performing optimally or consistently. They just got hot at the right time.
I think its rare to see a team performing optimally in all phases of the game. Super Bowl winners get hot at the right time, and are typically great at one thing and simply good at a couple others. Are we great at one thing? Not consistently great, but we have the talent in the secondary to be great at the right time.
For the record, I expect us to be in the playoff hunt all year. I don't honestly expect a Super Bowl appearance this year, but I can still hope for one knowing that anything can happen in the playoffs (see 2010 game vs Saints). I admit it would take a lot of luck...but luck happens. Four of the last seven Super Bowl winners were either wild cards or had 9 wins.
Next year I do feel like we should be Super Bowl contenders, and here are five reasons why:
- In this four year plan, the Seahawks have seen drastic improvement each year. It didn't reflect in the standings last year, partly because they overachieved in 2010, but last year's team was far superior to 2010's team. And this year's team is much better than last year's. I expect that trend to continue. Here are our DVOA ratings the last three years.
2012 - 21.7%, 8th in the league (subject to drop once they adjust for this week)
2011 - -1.5%, 19th
2010 - -22.9%, 30th (and we won a playoff game! Proof that anything can happen.)http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff2012http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff2011http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff2010
If the same amount of improvement happens next year, that makes us Super Bowl contenders.
- Russell Wilson is making such rapid progress in his development, that I think by next year he will be capable of leading this team to a Super Bowl without all the luck it would take this year.
- Football Outsiders had an article a few years ago about 3rd down conversions. I don't have a link, because its an old article, but it basically said that teams that are really good on 1st and 2nd down and then struggle on 3rd down usually revert to the mean the next year on their conversions, while staying good on 1st and 2nd down (on both sides of the ball). So next year our defense should be even better, especially at getting off the field on 3rd down.
- When PC and JS identify a weakness, they make it an offseason priority to fix it. I expect next year we'll have some better WRs. Probably a 1st round pick, and possibly a free agent addition. With how well PC/JS drafts, I expect that 1st round WR to be an immediate contributor.
- Look at how much improvement our o-line is making as this year progresses. With another year of continuity, they could be a very good unit.
Obviously I'm being very optimistic, but I really don't see any of this as unrealistic.