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 Post subject: Re: One year away from what?
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 29, 2012 3:38 pm 
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Scottemojo wrote:
bestfightstory wrote:
Scottemojo wrote:
I just don't see it. We are a 3 plays from being a one or two loss team, so why think about next year right now? .



I agree with your overall observation but the converse is also true. We are EASILY 3 plays away from being 1-7....


You ain't lying. I still point at last year's Giants as a good reason not to view this as an expendable season. Finish strong, see what happens in the tournament.



I NEVER view ANY game NOR season as expendable. To a fault. So, in that regard, we agree.

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 Post subject: Re: One year away from what?
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 29, 2012 4:48 pm 
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LoneHawkFan wrote:
Once all of our units are performing optimally, consistently, and complimenting each other...all working parallel...we will be there.


I disagree with this. Anything can happen in the NFL. Look at the Giants last year. They won the Super Bowl despite having one of the worst defenses in the league and the worst rushing attack. Clearly not all of their units were performing optimally or consistently. They just got hot at the right time.

I think its rare to see a team performing optimally in all phases of the game. Super Bowl winners get hot at the right time, and are typically great at one thing and simply good at a couple others. Are we great at one thing? Not consistently great, but we have the talent in the secondary to be great at the right time.

For the record, I expect us to be in the playoff hunt all year. I don't honestly expect a Super Bowl appearance this year, but I can still hope for one knowing that anything can happen in the playoffs (see 2010 game vs Saints). I admit it would take a lot of luck...but luck happens. Four of the last seven Super Bowl winners were either wild cards or had 9 wins.

Next year I do feel like we should be Super Bowl contenders, and here are five reasons why:

- In this four year plan, the Seahawks have seen drastic improvement each year. It didn't reflect in the standings last year, partly because they overachieved in 2010, but last year's team was far superior to 2010's team. And this year's team is much better than last year's. I expect that trend to continue. Here are our DVOA ratings the last three years.
2012 - 21.7%, 8th in the league (subject to drop once they adjust for this week)
2011 - -1.5%, 19th
2010 - -22.9%, 30th (and we won a playoff game! Proof that anything can happen.)

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff2012
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff2011
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff2010

If the same amount of improvement happens next year, that makes us Super Bowl contenders.

- Russell Wilson is making such rapid progress in his development, that I think by next year he will be capable of leading this team to a Super Bowl without all the luck it would take this year.

- Football Outsiders had an article a few years ago about 3rd down conversions. I don't have a link, because its an old article, but it basically said that teams that are really good on 1st and 2nd down and then struggle on 3rd down usually revert to the mean the next year on their conversions, while staying good on 1st and 2nd down (on both sides of the ball). So next year our defense should be even better, especially at getting off the field on 3rd down.

- When PC and JS identify a weakness, they make it an offseason priority to fix it. I expect next year we'll have some better WRs. Probably a 1st round pick, and possibly a free agent addition. With how well PC/JS drafts, I expect that 1st round WR to be an immediate contributor.

- Look at how much improvement our o-line is making as this year progresses. With another year of continuity, they could be a very good unit.

Obviously I'm being very optimistic, but I really don't see any of this as unrealistic.


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 Post subject: Re: One year away from what?
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 29, 2012 5:42 pm 
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Erebus wrote:
LoneHawkFan wrote:
Once all of our units are performing optimally, consistently, and complimenting each other...all working parallel...we will be there.


I disagree with this. Anything can happen in the NFL. Look at the Giants last year. They won the Super Bowl despite having one of the worst defenses in the league and the worst rushing attack. Clearly not all of their units were performing optimally or consistently. They just got hot at the right time.

I think its rare to see a team performing optimally in all phases of the game. Super Bowl winners get hot at the right time, and are typically great at one thing and simply good at a couple others. Are we great at one thing? Not consistently great, but we have the talent in the secondary to be great at the right time.

For the record, I expect us to be in the playoff hunt all year. I don't honestly expect a Super Bowl appearance this year, but I can still hope for one knowing that anything can happen in the playoffs (see 2010 game vs Saints). I admit it would take a lot of luck...but luck happens. Four of the last seven Super Bowl winners were either wild cards or had 9 wins.

Next year I do feel like we should be Super Bowl contenders, and here are five reasons why:

- In this four year plan, the Seahawks have seen drastic improvement each year. It didn't reflect in the standings last year, partly because they overachieved in 2010, but last year's team was far superior to 2010's team. And this year's team is much better than last year's. I expect that trend to continue. Here are our DVOA ratings the last three years.
2012 - 21.7%, 8th in the league (subject to drop once they adjust for this week)
2011 - -1.5%, 19th
2010 - -22.9%, 30th (and we won a playoff game! Proof that anything can happen.)

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff2012
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff2011
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff2010

If the same amount of improvement happens next year, that makes us Super Bowl contenders.

- Russell Wilson is making such rapid progress in his development, that I think by next year he will be capable of leading this team to a Super Bowl without all the luck it would take this year.

- Football Outsiders had an article a few years ago about 3rd down conversions. I don't have a link, because its an old article, but it basically said that teams that are really good on 1st and 2nd down and then struggle on 3rd down usually revert to the mean the next year on their conversions, while staying good on 1st and 2nd down (on both sides of the ball). So next year our defense should be even better, especially at getting off the field on 3rd down.

- When PC and JS identify a weakness, they make it an offseason priority to fix it. I expect next year we'll have some better WRs. Probably a 1st round pick, and possibly a free agent addition. With how well PC/JS drafts, I expect that 1st round WR to be an immediate contributor.

- Look at how much improvement our o-line is making as this year progresses. With another year of continuity, they could be a very good unit.

Obviously I'm being very optimistic, but I really don't see any of this as unrealistic.


Every team that plays in and wins the Super Bowl has at least an offense and defense hitting on all cylinders...at least come playoff time...OR they have one or the other that is all world and makes up for the deficiencies on the other side of the ball. To say the giants had one of th worst defenses in football last year is true...they did during the regular season...but then exploded towards the end of the season when they needed to.

I was referring specifically to our situation, anyway. And I'm not saying we can't reach that level next season...what I'm saying is that I don't expect a team this young to reach that level of okay consistently for a couple of more years. We will continue to improve over the rest of this year and next, and I expect- at least at this time- that we should be in our prime starting in the '14 season.

I hope we contend next year, damn that would be fantastic, but that would set a precedent as one of the youngest teams ever to do so...which is precisely why I don't expect it to happen.


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 Post subject: Re: One year away from what?
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 29, 2012 8:55 pm 
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How long did it take San Franscisco to build their current team. And if you think it started when Harbaugh joined the club, you're out of your mind. This SF team has taken 6 years to get to this point!

Wishing and hoping for immediate success is a foolish way to approach building your organization. There are many more top organizations in this league that were built over time than spung up out of nowhere. Everyone is always pointing to the surprise turn around teams that pop up every season. But how many of those teams go on to continue that success for multiple seasons?

Fans simply don't pay close enough attention to just how other teams around the league are built. Why? Because they only take notice of other teams when that team makes the leap to being good. They don't pay attention to their previous 6-10, 7-9, or 8-8 seasons that led up to making the leap, and surprising the rest of the league that just assumed they'd continue to be what they were the years prior.

I'm sorry. I know the league is a "win now!" sort of deal. And that it's not baseball where a rebuild or turn around takes forever. But it's not as easy as a lot of shortsighted, knee jerk fans think it is.


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 Post subject: Re: One year away from what?
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 30, 2012 1:27 am 
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I don't like the whole "next year we will be there!" mentality.

I understand that this team is young and growing and we will add more pieces in the off-season but we will also lose some pieces eventually as well. At this point in time, I'm a little worried how we will catch San Fran any time soon. They are better than us at every position expect RB, S, and CB. And even those three are extremely close and you could argue they are better there too. SF and STL will also be adding to their teams this off-season as well and will also benefit from more time together as a team.

I've basically come to accept that the only way we take control of this division for years to come is if Wilson becomes the best QB in the division. It's a lot to put on one player but he basically controls whether or not we will be winning this division for years to come or if we will be clawing for a wild card each year.


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 Post subject: Re: One year away from what?
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 30, 2012 2:26 am 
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amill87 wrote:
I don't like the whole "next year we will be there!" mentality.

I understand that this team is young and growing and we will add more pieces in the off-season but we will also lose some pieces eventually as well. At this point in time, I'm a little worried how we will catch San Fran any time soon. They are better than us at every position expect RB, S, and CB. And even those three are extremely close and you could argue they are better there too. SF and STL will also be adding to their teams this off-season as well and will also benefit from more time together as a team.

I've basically come to accept that the only way we take control of this division for years to come is if Wilson becomes the best QB in the division. It's a lot to put on one player but he basically controls whether or not we will be winning this division for years to come or if we will be clawing for a wild card each year.

I agree, but I also happen to think Wilson will become the best QB in this division. Of course that depends on what AZ does to address QB in the offseason.

Of course, we could see SF self-destruct if the drafting doesn't go well and/or Harbaugh and Baalke end up not seeing eye to eye as they try to replenish talent as it ages/moves on in FA. SF is just too good, has had too many good picks, etc., and we're going to have to beat them at their biggest weakness, QB, to secure dominance. I think we can be neck and neck with them year in and year out regardless, but to become the perennial kings of the NFC West, we have to secure a big advantage at QB.

I do think SF's 2012 draft displayed a level of ineptitude that is not a problem at all with Pete and John that could end up being a big difference maker.


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 Post subject: Re: One year away from what?
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 30, 2012 6:59 am 
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Yeah when I look at our team, I really like what I see...the stats indicate that we are gradually getting better as an overall team- offense and defense- during the PC/ JS years. What I'm struggling with is the fact that we have Green Bay, San Fransisco, Atlanta, Detroit, NYG...all NFC teams that are already at the level we are or above it...and most don't seem to be going away anytime really soon. We also have StL, AZ, CHI, MINN, WASH...all trying to do the exact same thing we are doing and are around our same level of growth. It's going to be extremely hard to get over the top in the NFC. There is no room for error, no room for major injury, no room for bad coaching, no room for poor player development, no room for mismanagement.

Which is why I originally posted this thread. In order to be the best, we have to beat the best- consistently and when it counts. SF is there, ATL is there, Green Bay and NYG are there...we have to overcome four stud teams. I can see NYG dropping some soon unless they replenish their defense a bit here and there. Green Bay looks beatable at times...

I love this team, I love what Pete and John have done, and I think that if we can get our offense rolling to the tune of 23-26 ppg, we can be that team. We have the personnel less a few guys at certain spots and I think we have the coach. We have the leadership for sure...we need some growth, some maturity, some experience, some development. I think in the 2-5 year window, we are a top-3 or 4 NFC team...that's what I am expecting and patiently waiting for.


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