One year away from what?

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One year away from what?
Mon Oct 29, 2012 10:42 am
  • Repeatedly...all over this board...we are "a year away" from something. From What? A Superbowl? HA!

    I have a feeling people here believe we are (or at least should be) reliving 2003 this season- the season that Hass ended with a pick-6 at Green Bay. I wish we were indeed that good. That was Hass's 3rd season as a starter and Shaun was starting to run rampant in the league...it was TWO MORE years before we even won a playoff game and were competing for championships.

    When all of our recent draft picks are in their primes, we will compete at the highest level. That's a couple of years away...and with the way that we find talent in the draft- we should be able to stay competitive at that point in time.

    It is extremely hard to be patient with this team, because it seems like we are really close. But we have to be patient. I don't enjoy wallowing in mediocrity any more than the next guy...but we are getting better...and the path is not a straight one. Once all of our units are performing optimally, consistently, and complimenting each other...all working parallel...we will be there. Hard to do with such a young group. We'll be there soon.

    It was Holmgren's 5th year when we lost in 2003. In Pete's 5th year, we'll be there ready to win at that level.

    I say two years before we are serious contenders. And we should be there to stay for a while when we get there.
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Re: One year away from what?
Mon Oct 29, 2012 10:49 am
  • That's fine for us as fans, and may be reality. I really hope the players aren't thinking anything like that though.

    Every single one of them better be thinking nothing but win now.
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Re: One year away from what?
Mon Oct 29, 2012 10:53 am
  • Anyone who says we're a <insert year> away from anything doesn't understand the NFL. This isn't college where you control your roster for multiple years in a row because there's no free agency or salary cap.

    This is the NFL, too many variables to plan for future years as if it's a competitive fact. Coaches that do this are usually looking for a job after 3-4 years of saying "we're building for the future." The future is now in the NFL, you win or you get fired.
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Re: One year away from what?
Mon Oct 29, 2012 10:55 am
  • With a better GM and a coaching change, I think 2004 could have been a Superbowl year. Hell, I think 2003, 2004, and 2005 could have been. Holmgren got the team playing at a high level, but i think other coaches could have coaxed even more out of those teams. Our defensive coordinator sucked at that point. Marshall had a good season in 2005, but Holmgren was pretty conservative at all times, and I think he had built a really good team and Ruskell did a nice job filling in with Tatupu, Hill, Dyson, Joe J. and a couple of other nice moves that pushed us over the top. But I don't think coaching was necessarily our strong suit. Holmgren was a good coach, but was on the downside and things just continued to get progressively worse. Talent was what got that team so far. I think with a young coach (look at what Harbaugh has done in SF) that the team would have had a longer run of more success... and I'm a Mike Holmgren fan. A big fan. I just don't think he was in his prime at that point. I think somebody like Gruden could have gotten at least one superbowl victory out of that squad the way it was constructed.
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Re: One year away from what?
Mon Oct 29, 2012 10:55 am
  • as much as it bums me out, i'd have to agree...too young , too inexperienced at this point... need time to learn how to execute week in and week out.. need team leaders to develope and take charge, need time for the coaching staff to 1. get the right personnel in there, or 2. figure out what the hell it is they want/need to do to be successful... like i said in an earlier post, i will continue to cheer them on till i'm blue in the face, good with the bad.. realistically i just want to see improvement week in and week out.
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Re: One year away from what?
Mon Oct 29, 2012 10:58 am
  • Imagine the 05 offense versus this year D, that would be a great matchup but 05 could dink and dunk us. I bet SA would be scared of this Defense though.
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Re: One year away from what?
Mon Oct 29, 2012 11:19 am
  • Shaun would gash this year's defense, just like Frank Gore did last week. He'd probably put up 200 yards if it were 2005 Shaun with 2005 line, and I'm not trying to be an exaggerator. That line would have opened up the same lines that Iupati and Staley were. Shaun was far superior at running through those lanes than Gore is in my view. If he had those holes he would have broken at least 2 long TD's that Gore didn't because he isn't as fast as Shaun was.
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Re: One year away from what?
Mon Oct 29, 2012 12:59 pm
  • SharkHawk wrote:Shaun would gash this year's defense, just like Frank Gore did last week. He'd probably put up 200 yards if it were 2005 Shaun with 2005 line, and I'm not trying to be an exaggerator. That line would have opened up the same lines that Iupati and Staley were. Shaun was far superior at running through those lanes than Gore is in my view. If he had those holes he would have broken at least 2 long TD's that Gore didn't because he isn't as fast as Shaun was.

    Agree, and Shaun 's speed was just above average for an NFL RB. He had GREAT vision. Imagine him with excellent to great speed.
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Re: One year away from what?
Mon Oct 29, 2012 2:15 pm
  • Coincidently, I watched Gore lie down a few times last week as well. So his comparison to SA holds water. On one particular play, after a long run, Gore folded like a QB. Lynch likely would have scored on the play. Now, I know it's not PC to knock this teams all time RB, but put Lynch behind Walt and Hutch and see how many yeards he'd get.

    Hutch and Walt might gash this line, SA would have just ran thru that truck sized hole, like Gore ran thru his. Back to the topic: I for the life of me cannot understand how anyone can be upset with the progress we've made this year. Of course there's going to be a "next year" vibe to it all. Those that have issues with this, and somehow seem to think it translates to soft fans, I ask WTH did you expect from a rookie QB with a patchwork line and WRs that few others in the league would have on their roster? How many of tofday's team would carry Obo and Edwards? Tate has been less than stellar, IMO, Baldwin hurt and Rice isn't exactly known for 16 games seasons...yet he is basically our lone bright spot. Miller has been a lineman and McCoy can barely be trusted.

    The above doesn't add up to contender, but some of us believe we are a year, maybe two, from that designation. Bitch all you want...but you'll be back next year along with the rest of us. Expect good things.
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Re: One year away from what?
Mon Oct 29, 2012 2:37 pm
  • CaptainSkybeard wrote:That's fine for us as fans, and may be reality. I really hope the players aren't thinking anything like that though.

    Every single one of them better be thinking nothing but win now.


    I don't agree. I've neve had a coach tell me that's what I need to be thinking. I hope beyond hope that these guys are thinking more along the lines of "keep working hard, learn from your mistakes, continue to improve, do my job better than my opponent, etc..." concentrating on getting better and execution will provide results- always does. You can't win if you're just focused on winning.

    As a result, I think they all understand that this is a marathon, not a sprint. They can't reach the big goal until they conquer the smaller ones along the way.
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Re: One year away from what?
Mon Oct 29, 2012 2:48 pm
  • You can't win a Super Bowl in week #8.
    ...and no, I'm not expecting a Super Bowl this year.

    Look at the Giants of last year. They got hot with their pass rush late in the season and rode the wave to the title.
    Everything is a work in progress until playoffs begin. Then, It's a week to week match up game.

    A time consuming run and throw it deep offense will always have a shot with a good defense.
    This team is built to create close games no matter where they're played.
    We all see the writing on the wall.
    Games will to go to the last second all season long.
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Re: One year away from what?
Mon Oct 29, 2012 2:49 pm
  • Until we are out of the playoffs for this year, posts like this are needless handwringing.
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Re: One year away from what?
Mon Oct 29, 2012 2:57 pm
  • Sgt. Largent wrote:Anyone who says we're a <insert year> away from anything doesn't understand the NFL. This isn't college where you control your roster for multiple years in a row because there's no free agency or salary cap.

    This is the NFL, too many variables to plan for future years as if it's a competitive fact. Coaches that do this are usually looking for a job after 3-4 years of saying "we're building for the future." The future is now in the NFL, you win or you get fired.


    So, if I understand this correctly, college teams have more control of their roster than pro teams? I was under the assumption that it was constantly turning over due to, you know, graduation. Teams are never the same from year to year in college.

    Of course teams build for the future. They have to; if you don't believe teams build and look forward to te future, man I'm just not sure what to say about that. Teams don't build for the future? Really? You really believe that teams that build for the future fail? Of course some do...just as many that build for now (see Philly?). It seems that teams that build for now either overpay and lose or they overpay and win for a very short period of time. Teams built for the long haul are deeply invested in organic growth of young kids, draft picks, and use free agency sparingly (see Pittsburgh, NYG, Baltimore, New England). These teams BUILD to the point that all they need in the offseason is to reload a bit and continue to inject young blood...of course, the success then is dependent on the coaching staff's ability to identify talent and develop players.
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Re: One year away from what?
Mon Oct 29, 2012 3:09 pm
  • Didn't PC and JS mention the "4-Year Plan"?

    So according to their "plan", we are now 3 years into it. So simply going off of their plan, next year should be spectacular, no?

    Am I missing something?
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Re: One year away from what?
Mon Oct 29, 2012 3:09 pm
  • Scottemojo wrote:Until we are out of the playoffs for this year, posts like this are needless handwringing.


    Whether we go to the playoffs or not doesn't matter to me. What matters to me is that we have a group of young skilled football players who I am terribly excited about- but that are also still a bit green. If these guys are good enough for the playoffs this year, AWESOME, and if that's the case then we can be extremely excited for the yrs to come. My point was simply that our really great years are still out quite a bit ahead of us and that we should feel fine about anything this season playoffs or not. I don't think we should be expecting playoffs, but not surprised if we make it either.
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Re: One year away from what?
Mon Oct 29, 2012 3:20 pm
  • I never had any realistic expectations of the playoffs this year. Maybe I should have, but I personally felt, and still feel, that we are too young, still developing to expect playoffs. You add a rookie QB (as fantastic as I think he will be for us, and in many respects already is) and a WR group that frankly puts the fear of God into absolutely nobody, a talented, hard-hitting but bend and apparently break defense...This team is at least a legitimate year away from putting it all together and seeing where it takes us.

    Some have said it and I agree...This season feels like an extended preseason to me. Not really sure why, it just does. The losing still stings just as much as usual, but the overall feel is a practice year.

    Certainly, this team IS capable of making the playoffs this year and maybe even doing some damage. I just think there's enough inconsistency and SOS-centric road woes that keeps me from feeling anything other than 8-8, 9-7 right now.

    As long as we are better than 7-9 this year I will consider it an improvement. But next year? Yeah, I expect to be Division Champions. Anything less and Carroll should get cozy on the hot seat.
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Re: One year away from what?
Mon Oct 29, 2012 3:26 pm
  • Next year we will come up with a newly recycled excuse. Injuries, perhaps. Or 'chemistry' between Wilson and his new receivers. Or 'sophomore slump'. Whatever it takes!
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Re: One year away from what?
Mon Oct 29, 2012 3:29 pm
  • I just don't see it. We are a 3 plays from being a one or two loss team, so why think about next year right now? It feels like some of you are steeling yourselves for a disappointing second half of the year, not getting excited for some great playoff run football.
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Re: One year away from what?
Mon Oct 29, 2012 3:31 pm
  • Scottemojo wrote:I just don't see it. We are a 3 plays from being a one or two loss team, so why think about next year right now? .



    I agree with your overall observation but the converse is also true. We are EASILY 3 plays away from being 1-7....
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Re: One year away from what?
Mon Oct 29, 2012 3:36 pm
  • bestfightstory wrote:
    Scottemojo wrote:I just don't see it. We are a 3 plays from being a one or two loss team, so why think about next year right now? .



    I agree with your overall observation but the converse is also true. We are EASILY 3 plays away from being 1-7....


    You ain't lying. I still point at last year's Giants as a good reason not to view this as an expendable season. Finish strong, see what happens in the tournament.
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Re: One year away from what?
Mon Oct 29, 2012 3:38 pm
  • Scottemojo wrote:
    bestfightstory wrote:
    Scottemojo wrote:I just don't see it. We are a 3 plays from being a one or two loss team, so why think about next year right now? .



    I agree with your overall observation but the converse is also true. We are EASILY 3 plays away from being 1-7....


    You ain't lying. I still point at last year's Giants as a good reason not to view this as an expendable season. Finish strong, see what happens in the tournament.



    I NEVER view ANY game NOR season as expendable. To a fault. So, in that regard, we agree.
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Re: One year away from what?
Mon Oct 29, 2012 4:48 pm
  • LoneHawkFan wrote:Once all of our units are performing optimally, consistently, and complimenting each other...all working parallel...we will be there.


    I disagree with this. Anything can happen in the NFL. Look at the Giants last year. They won the Super Bowl despite having one of the worst defenses in the league and the worst rushing attack. Clearly not all of their units were performing optimally or consistently. They just got hot at the right time.

    I think its rare to see a team performing optimally in all phases of the game. Super Bowl winners get hot at the right time, and are typically great at one thing and simply good at a couple others. Are we great at one thing? Not consistently great, but we have the talent in the secondary to be great at the right time.

    For the record, I expect us to be in the playoff hunt all year. I don't honestly expect a Super Bowl appearance this year, but I can still hope for one knowing that anything can happen in the playoffs (see 2010 game vs Saints). I admit it would take a lot of luck...but luck happens. Four of the last seven Super Bowl winners were either wild cards or had 9 wins.

    Next year I do feel like we should be Super Bowl contenders, and here are five reasons why:

    - In this four year plan, the Seahawks have seen drastic improvement each year. It didn't reflect in the standings last year, partly because they overachieved in 2010, but last year's team was far superior to 2010's team. And this year's team is much better than last year's. I expect that trend to continue. Here are our DVOA ratings the last three years.
    2012 - 21.7%, 8th in the league (subject to drop once they adjust for this week)
    2011 - -1.5%, 19th
    2010 - -22.9%, 30th (and we won a playoff game! Proof that anything can happen.)

    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff2012
    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff2011
    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff2010

    If the same amount of improvement happens next year, that makes us Super Bowl contenders.

    - Russell Wilson is making such rapid progress in his development, that I think by next year he will be capable of leading this team to a Super Bowl without all the luck it would take this year.

    - Football Outsiders had an article a few years ago about 3rd down conversions. I don't have a link, because its an old article, but it basically said that teams that are really good on 1st and 2nd down and then struggle on 3rd down usually revert to the mean the next year on their conversions, while staying good on 1st and 2nd down (on both sides of the ball). So next year our defense should be even better, especially at getting off the field on 3rd down.

    - When PC and JS identify a weakness, they make it an offseason priority to fix it. I expect next year we'll have some better WRs. Probably a 1st round pick, and possibly a free agent addition. With how well PC/JS drafts, I expect that 1st round WR to be an immediate contributor.

    - Look at how much improvement our o-line is making as this year progresses. With another year of continuity, they could be a very good unit.

    Obviously I'm being very optimistic, but I really don't see any of this as unrealistic.
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Re: One year away from what?
Mon Oct 29, 2012 5:42 pm
  • Erebus wrote:
    LoneHawkFan wrote:Once all of our units are performing optimally, consistently, and complimenting each other...all working parallel...we will be there.


    I disagree with this. Anything can happen in the NFL. Look at the Giants last year. They won the Super Bowl despite having one of the worst defenses in the league and the worst rushing attack. Clearly not all of their units were performing optimally or consistently. They just got hot at the right time.

    I think its rare to see a team performing optimally in all phases of the game. Super Bowl winners get hot at the right time, and are typically great at one thing and simply good at a couple others. Are we great at one thing? Not consistently great, but we have the talent in the secondary to be great at the right time.

    For the record, I expect us to be in the playoff hunt all year. I don't honestly expect a Super Bowl appearance this year, but I can still hope for one knowing that anything can happen in the playoffs (see 2010 game vs Saints). I admit it would take a lot of luck...but luck happens. Four of the last seven Super Bowl winners were either wild cards or had 9 wins.

    Next year I do feel like we should be Super Bowl contenders, and here are five reasons why:

    - In this four year plan, the Seahawks have seen drastic improvement each year. It didn't reflect in the standings last year, partly because they overachieved in 2010, but last year's team was far superior to 2010's team. And this year's team is much better than last year's. I expect that trend to continue. Here are our DVOA ratings the last three years.
    2012 - 21.7%, 8th in the league (subject to drop once they adjust for this week)
    2011 - -1.5%, 19th
    2010 - -22.9%, 30th (and we won a playoff game! Proof that anything can happen.)

    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff2012
    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff2011
    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff2010

    If the same amount of improvement happens next year, that makes us Super Bowl contenders.

    - Russell Wilson is making such rapid progress in his development, that I think by next year he will be capable of leading this team to a Super Bowl without all the luck it would take this year.

    - Football Outsiders had an article a few years ago about 3rd down conversions. I don't have a link, because its an old article, but it basically said that teams that are really good on 1st and 2nd down and then struggle on 3rd down usually revert to the mean the next year on their conversions, while staying good on 1st and 2nd down (on both sides of the ball). So next year our defense should be even better, especially at getting off the field on 3rd down.

    - When PC and JS identify a weakness, they make it an offseason priority to fix it. I expect next year we'll have some better WRs. Probably a 1st round pick, and possibly a free agent addition. With how well PC/JS drafts, I expect that 1st round WR to be an immediate contributor.

    - Look at how much improvement our o-line is making as this year progresses. With another year of continuity, they could be a very good unit.

    Obviously I'm being very optimistic, but I really don't see any of this as unrealistic.


    Every team that plays in and wins the Super Bowl has at least an offense and defense hitting on all cylinders...at least come playoff time...OR they have one or the other that is all world and makes up for the deficiencies on the other side of the ball. To say the giants had one of th worst defenses in football last year is true...they did during the regular season...but then exploded towards the end of the season when they needed to.

    I was referring specifically to our situation, anyway. And I'm not saying we can't reach that level next season...what I'm saying is that I don't expect a team this young to reach that level of okay consistently for a couple of more years. We will continue to improve over the rest of this year and next, and I expect- at least at this time- that we should be in our prime starting in the '14 season.

    I hope we contend next year, damn that would be fantastic, but that would set a precedent as one of the youngest teams ever to do so...which is precisely why I don't expect it to happen.
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Re: One year away from what?
Mon Oct 29, 2012 8:55 pm
  • How long did it take San Franscisco to build their current team. And if you think it started when Harbaugh joined the club, you're out of your mind. This SF team has taken 6 years to get to this point!

    Wishing and hoping for immediate success is a foolish way to approach building your organization. There are many more top organizations in this league that were built over time than spung up out of nowhere. Everyone is always pointing to the surprise turn around teams that pop up every season. But how many of those teams go on to continue that success for multiple seasons?

    Fans simply don't pay close enough attention to just how other teams around the league are built. Why? Because they only take notice of other teams when that team makes the leap to being good. They don't pay attention to their previous 6-10, 7-9, or 8-8 seasons that led up to making the leap, and surprising the rest of the league that just assumed they'd continue to be what they were the years prior.

    I'm sorry. I know the league is a "win now!" sort of deal. And that it's not baseball where a rebuild or turn around takes forever. But it's not as easy as a lot of shortsighted, knee jerk fans think it is.
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Re: One year away from what?
Tue Oct 30, 2012 1:27 am
  • I don't like the whole "next year we will be there!" mentality.

    I understand that this team is young and growing and we will add more pieces in the off-season but we will also lose some pieces eventually as well. At this point in time, I'm a little worried how we will catch San Fran any time soon. They are better than us at every position expect RB, S, and CB. And even those three are extremely close and you could argue they are better there too. SF and STL will also be adding to their teams this off-season as well and will also benefit from more time together as a team.

    I've basically come to accept that the only way we take control of this division for years to come is if Wilson becomes the best QB in the division. It's a lot to put on one player but he basically controls whether or not we will be winning this division for years to come or if we will be clawing for a wild card each year.
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Re: One year away from what?
Tue Oct 30, 2012 2:26 am
  • amill87 wrote:I don't like the whole "next year we will be there!" mentality.

    I understand that this team is young and growing and we will add more pieces in the off-season but we will also lose some pieces eventually as well. At this point in time, I'm a little worried how we will catch San Fran any time soon. They are better than us at every position expect RB, S, and CB. And even those three are extremely close and you could argue they are better there too. SF and STL will also be adding to their teams this off-season as well and will also benefit from more time together as a team.

    I've basically come to accept that the only way we take control of this division for years to come is if Wilson becomes the best QB in the division. It's a lot to put on one player but he basically controls whether or not we will be winning this division for years to come or if we will be clawing for a wild card each year.

    I agree, but I also happen to think Wilson will become the best QB in this division. Of course that depends on what AZ does to address QB in the offseason.

    Of course, we could see SF self-destruct if the drafting doesn't go well and/or Harbaugh and Baalke end up not seeing eye to eye as they try to replenish talent as it ages/moves on in FA. SF is just too good, has had too many good picks, etc., and we're going to have to beat them at their biggest weakness, QB, to secure dominance. I think we can be neck and neck with them year in and year out regardless, but to become the perennial kings of the NFC West, we have to secure a big advantage at QB.

    I do think SF's 2012 draft displayed a level of ineptitude that is not a problem at all with Pete and John that could end up being a big difference maker.
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    pinksheets
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Re: One year away from what?
Tue Oct 30, 2012 6:59 am
  • Yeah when I look at our team, I really like what I see...the stats indicate that we are gradually getting better as an overall team- offense and defense- during the PC/ JS years. What I'm struggling with is the fact that we have Green Bay, San Fransisco, Atlanta, Detroit, NYG...all NFC teams that are already at the level we are or above it...and most don't seem to be going away anytime really soon. We also have StL, AZ, CHI, MINN, WASH...all trying to do the exact same thing we are doing and are around our same level of growth. It's going to be extremely hard to get over the top in the NFC. There is no room for error, no room for major injury, no room for bad coaching, no room for poor player development, no room for mismanagement.

    Which is why I originally posted this thread. In order to be the best, we have to beat the best- consistently and when it counts. SF is there, ATL is there, Green Bay and NYG are there...we have to overcome four stud teams. I can see NYG dropping some soon unless they replenish their defense a bit here and there. Green Bay looks beatable at times...

    I love this team, I love what Pete and John have done, and I think that if we can get our offense rolling to the tune of 23-26 ppg, we can be that team. We have the personnel less a few guys at certain spots and I think we have the coach. We have the leadership for sure...we need some growth, some maturity, some experience, some development. I think in the 2-5 year window, we are a top-3 or 4 NFC team...that's what I am expecting and patiently waiting for.
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