kidhawk wrote: manders2600 wrote:
kidhawk wrote:YPC isn't as good a stat to go by as one would think. Justin Forsett consistently had a high YPC average, but couldn't keep it up when given the majority of carries in any game. The fact of the matter is that teams are stacking against the run and Lynch is still averaging near nearly four and a half yards per carry. He's (I believe) the league leader in yards after contact...THIS is a real stat to consider, because where a RB is first hit will vary, but how he runs after that is where the ability lies
Unfortunately, it also speaks to the strength of the offensive line, and can be detrimental to a RBs long-term health.
Ideally, you don't want any RB to get most of their yards after contact AND have 300+ carries on the season (Lynch has 147 so far, or 21 per game, putting him on pace for 336 carries).
The Forsett point is a solid one, although this would seem to be negated by only looking at RBs with 50+ carries so far. I suppose you could further whittle it down by looking at only RBs who have 75+ or 100+.
I don't think 300+ carries is a huge number for a RB. 400+ Is, but if a RB runs the ball 20 times per game, that's 320 carries over the course of a season.
Also, you can't always blame a RB getting hit sooner on the offensive line. When a defense puts 8 men in the box, it's rare for them not to put a hit on the rB within the first yard or 2. Lynch is that special type of back who can still churn out those runs and make them 4+ yards. This is the skill you want in a RB. RB's aren't meant to last 10 years. They take lots of hits and they get that one really fat contract and then they start to decline by the end of it. We have Lynch in his prime and I have no problem with using him to carry a load.
What we need to do, is get the short - intermediate passing game going, so those linebackers and safeties don't cheat up to stop the run. This will give Lynch the chance to get some momentum going before that first contact, and when that happens, watch out
Well, only 3 players have had more than 350 carries in the last 5 seasons (2007-2011): Adrian Peterson and Michael Turner in 2008, and Chris Johnson in 2009. No one has had 400 carries in those seasons.
Last year, Lynch had 285 carries on the season, giving him the 4th most carries that year.
Good running teams routinely face 8 men in the box, and Seattle is certainly one of them. However, given the 4.4 ypc for Lynch (and for Turbin) and the fact that Lynch has the highest yards-after-contact of RBs, it seems that he is being contacted sooner rather than later. Whether this is a factor of poor line play, poor blocking by FBs and TEs, or the lack of a passing game is more difficult to say (probably a combination of the three).
This is not taking anything away from Lynch, who is amazing, but rather the long-term efficacy of Seattle's approach to him.
My point being that Seattle cannot continue to have a single RB with the 2nd highest number of carries while running the 18th most offensive plays, and getting the most yards-after-contact, with any level of sustainability. In essense, Lynch needs other players on Seattle's offense to step up, because at the moment, he IS Seattle's offense, and is being subjected to greater risk of injury.