Seahawks' Odds of making the playoffs- FO

Most sites including makeplayoffs.com, playoffstatus.com, playoffrace.com have the Seahawks between 30%-40% chance of earning a spot. However, FootballOutsiders have a much more optimistic projection of 63.3%.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

Why the huge discrepancy? Well..they use something called DVOA to determine their odds. So what is DVOA?

THE SHORT VERSION:
DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: Five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five yards on third-and-12. Red zone plays are worth more than other plays. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent. DVOA is a percentage, so a team with a DVOA of 10.0% is 10 percent better than the average team, and a quarterback with a DVOA of -20.0% is 20 percent worse than the average quarterback. Because DVOA measures scoring, defenses are better when they are negative. For more detail, read below.

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It's pretty comprehensive, but if you care to read the full version- here it is: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#DVOA

Here's where it gets good. We all knew we had a brutal schedule for the first 8 games, but here are our remaining opponents according to their DVOA: DET 15, MIN 11, NYJ 17, MIA 10, CHI 4, ARZ 21, BUF 26, SFO 1, STL 14 (SEA is 8).


If you were to take this a set further, I would say that it would be reasonable to deduct 5 points for away games and add 5 for home games. Of course this method is HIGHLY subjective. However, if that were the case, here would be our future record:

@DET -5= 13 vs 15 WIN (CLOSE GAME)
vMIN +5= 3 vs 11 WIN
vNYJ +5= 3 vs 17 WIN
@Mia -5= 13 vs 10 Loss (close game)
@Chi -5= 13 vs 4 Loss
vAz +5= 3 vs 21 Win
@Buff+5= 13 vs 26 Win
vSF +5= 3 vs 1 Loss (Close game)
v STL +5= 3 vs 14 Win

This would put us at 10-6, and most likely in the play-offs but i would say that any game within 10 points of one another would mean a lock which would mean our Lock wins would be vs NYJ, AZ, Buff, STL which I would tend to agree with.

6 Teams make the playoffs and I would venture to say that the following teams are locks to make it barring a major injury:
NYG
CHI
GB
ATL
SF

Of this group, I am least confident in Chicago making the playoffs but they most likely will. In my opinion that leaves about 6 teams vying for that last spot: Minnesota, Arizona, Seattle and (WSH,DAL,PHI). While STL and DET may have a shot they would have to play incredible football down the stretch against incredibly difficult schedules- I think they're both out.

Let's look at Arizona's schedule: vs SF, @GB, @ATL...wow that's almost surely 4-6 and then you add away games at SF and Seattle. THat's already 8 losses. OUT.

Minnesota's schedule includes GB twice, CHI twice, @Seattle , @Houston, @STL. I'm guessing 4 for sure losses, 2 against GB, @Chi, @Houston- then they would only need to lose one other game to have 7 losses. Obviously the importance of this game cannot be understated.

NFC East- Due to the parity in that division, and the fact that each teams knows each other so well. It's very difficult to win 10 games...Especially if the NYG win 10 or 11.

In summary, I think we're in a great spot to make the playoffs provided that we continue to progress rather than digress.

Bigpumpkin":1ght5rp1 said:

It's now looking like the Niners are going to win our Division which means that we would have our first Playoff game on the Road......and you know our chances there. For us to even have a chance at a Division title we would have to win the rest of our games at home.

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But we got a defense now. I think that changes it a little.

"So you are saying we gotta chance............"

Thanks for the post, good stuff.. just gotta go out and make plays on both sides of the ball... we're a good team, time to start gelling and playing like one.

Great post. Just goes to show, although we have an easier schedule, there are a lot of very pivotal games in regards to our playoff hopes.

@ Chicago is probably a loss. We aren't going to be able to pass against that defense. Their WRs and scheme seems to do well against us when we don't get pressure on the QB.

Miami is going to be another tough game, tougher than we would've thought at the beginning of the year. Most of us had a "W" penciled in there already, now I'm not so sure.

We need to win 2 road games to ensure that we can make the playoffs if we don't win out at home. That's going to be Buffalo, and Miami, or.....Detroit.

Suddenly, the Detroit game has major playoff implications for us. We can knock off a potential Wildcard competitor, and improve our record, both of which we need.

I expect Jay Cutler to be in complete breakdown mode by the time we play Chicago.

cliff notes?

My guess is they think the Hawks are playoff bound.

If we win all our home games we will finish with 9 wins. If we can get one more road win that makes 10.

Most of the time 10 gets you in. I like our chances if we can continue to win at home.

I look at the rest of SF's games, and I see between 2 and 4 losses left.

I think they finish 11-5. Thats going to be tough to beat, and if we also finish 11-5 a whole lot of things have to line up for us to have a tie breaker.

Everyone in division needs to go 3-3 in division for starters (unless its like SEA 3-3 SF 3-3 and STL/ARI 4-2/2-4).

It is starting to look like if we want the division we are going to have to beat the bears at their place AND make sure we don't lose any games we "should" win. A tall order.

My prediction:

If Seattle can finish at least 2nd in the division with an 9-7 record I think they stand a good chance. East teams all are pretty bad with exception of Giants. South will be won by Atlanta but NO will be lucky to finish 8-8, North will be won by the Bears with Minnesota and GB making the cut.

Dont sell yourselfs short two losses were pittiful for San Fran. thats why its called any given sunday.



Go Niners

Here's my playoff scenario

#1 ATL 13-3
#2 SF 12-4
#3 CHI 11-5
#4 NYG 10-6
#5 SEA 10-6
#6 GB 10-6

Wildcard
#5 SEA @ #4 NYG
#6 GB @ #3 CHI

Divisonal
#5 SEA @ #2 SF
#6 GB @ #1 ATL

NFC Championship
#6 GB @ #5 SEA

Superbowl
SEA VS DEN

DAL, PHILLY, MIN, and NO all finish 9-7 or 8-8

lol at pete carroll reunion bowl

I dont see any reason the Seahawks cant win all of their home games. I also dont see why they cant win two of their remaining four road games. At Detroit is winnable, at Miami is tough but winnable, at Chicago is tough and I dont expect a win, and at Toronto (BUF) is winnable. If we win just two of those (probably DET and BUF), that puts us at 11 wins (assuming we win all our home games).

But of course something bad always happens, so lets assume they either lose a home game or only win one more game on the road. Thats 10 wins, and that should get us in to the playoffs. Our biggest competition for the last wild card spot will be Minnesota, and we should beat them at home and hold a tie breaker over them.

If we really do only win one more game on the road, we arent going anywhere as the sixth seed with all our playoff games on the road.

Teams that are 4-3 do have a 48% chance to get into the playoffs , compared to a 15% chance for 3-4 teams.

Heard that stat somewhere this week, it maybe incorrect .

Why do we think SF will win 12 games? They don't exactly have an easy schedule remaining:

They've got to visit us, Arizona (lost there last year), the suddenly-rejuvenated Saints, a 10am game in St Louis ()on a shortened week) and a primetime game at the Pats, whilst hosting the equally incredibly-good-defensively Bears, and hosting the never-quite-know-how-they'll play Dolphins (with an absurdly good rush defense, and have either lead or been tied at the end of the 60 minutes in their last 5 games) in addition to hosting Arizona and St Louis again.

There's not a single easy game there

It's interesting looking at all of the various ratings that Football Outsiders has for us when it comes to team efficiency, offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, etc.

By any measure, it seems that we've played one of the toughest schedules in the league thus far, and will finish with one of the toughest schedules. Our offense has faced the 5th toughest slate of defenses to date, and our defense has faced the 2nd toughest slate of offenses.

Kinda makes you feel even better about a 4-3 start.

I think we are helped a lot by how difficult many of the remaining schedules are.

We are also helped somewhat by how much the various NFC teams still have to play each other.

We are also helped by having wins over DAL and GB (for tiebreakers).

I think winning the division is difficult, not impossible, but definitely unlikely, as the 49ers would have to melt down somewhat and we'd have to catch fire (winning all three home NFCW games would help obviously).

Conversely, I think getting a wild card berth is definitely possible. It strikes me as unlikely that the NFC South will send a representative. It also strikes me as unlikely that the NFC East will send a representative. We're probably going up against the NFC North for wild card spots, specifically with GB, CHI and MIN, as those are all good teams with good records. It is SUPER helpful that we get to play them head to head, and that they have to play the 49ers and Cardinals...

I don't really give us much of a chance if we win the wildcard spot and have to play all the playoff games on the road,...the NY Giants as a road team we are not ,...