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 Post subject: San fran opens as 7 point favs
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 3:20 pm 
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Oct. 18 Seattle
5:25 p.m. at San Francisco
Favorite SFO SFO SFO
Point spread -7 -7 -7
Total 37½o/u 38o/u 37½o/u
Total money line -110 -110 -110

http://www.vegas.com/gaming/


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Last edited by blue 22 on Mon Oct 15, 2012 3:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: San fran open as 7 point favs
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 3:21 pm 
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wow, that seems really really high

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 Post subject: Re: San fran open as 7 point favs
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 3:22 pm 
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That's just silly right there.

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 Post subject: Re: San fran open as 7 point favs
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 3:22 pm 
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Thats what i was thinking... might be a good one to bet huh?


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 Post subject: Re: San fran open as 7 point favs
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 3:22 pm 
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I'm leaning towards the Niners straight up this week, but 7 points? I think that's a bit much. We just don't lose by that much. We are built for close games. Win or lose, most of our games will be within one score. Take the Hawks and the points

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 Post subject: Re: San fran open as 7 point favs
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 3:28 pm 
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blue 22 wrote:
Thats what i was thinking... might be a good one to bet huh?


Just after I made my previous post, they were talking to Clayton on KIRO and they asked him who he thought would win and he was quick to pick the Niners. By the end of the conversation they mentioned that Vegas had the Niners at 7-1/2 and he said he'd take the Seahawks with the points. I don't think Clayton is a bettors guru, but since it happened just when this thread got kickin' I thought it was worth noting

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 Post subject: Re: San fran opens as 7 point favs
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 3:29 pm 
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Perfect. Keep us as the underdogs.

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 Post subject: Re: San fran open as 7 point favs
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 3:30 pm 
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kidhawk wrote:
blue 22 wrote:
Thats what i was thinking... might be a good one to bet huh?


Just after I made my previous post, they were talking to Clayton on KIRO and they asked him who he thought would win and he was quick to pick the Niners. By the end of the conversation they mentioned that Vegas had the Niners at 7-1/2 and he said he'd take the Seahawks with the points. I don't think Clayton is a bettors guru, but since it happened just when this thread got kickin' I thought it was worth noting


As much as I love Clayton, he needs to stick to reporting and not analyzing. For whatever reason, ESPN has pushed him over into that realm more and more, and he continues to stick his foot in his mouth.

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 Post subject: Re: San fran opens as 7 point favs
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 3:31 pm 
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7 seems pretty steep to me. Bet it comes down a bunch by thursday.

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 Post subject: Re: San fran opens as 7 point favs
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 3:33 pm 
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It was seven and a half before I posted it and it just went down to seven... the masses must be listening to professor clayton


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 Post subject: Re: San fran opens as 7 point favs
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 3:37 pm 
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If I were in Vegas I'd be placing my wager this week. We have a legitimate shot of winning it straight up, but with our defense we will be keeping games VERY close all year long

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 Post subject: Re: San fran opens as 7 point favs
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 3:37 pm 
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I love being underdogs :)

We were underdogs in the:

Patriots game
Cowboys game
Panthers game
Packers game

Favored in:

Cards game
Rams game?

Record as underdog- 4-0

Record when favored- 0-2

I see a trend......


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 Post subject: Re: San fran opens as 7 point favs
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 3:44 pm 
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I think that's a very good number. First, there are many more Niner fans than Hawk fans, that along with SF's closer proximity to Vegas influences the line maker. They know more money is likely to come in on the Niners and need to find balance so both teams take the exact (if possible) amount of action.

You have to think homefield in this league is worth no less than 4 pts (I'd give the Clink closer to 6). So basically, the book is only suggesting SF is a FG better than us and that is hard to argue.

A savvy bettor might buy that 7 up to 7.5 and bet the Hawks. If a Niner bettor, I'd buy it down to 6.5. I'm not that savvy and I believe we will win this outright, so I'd jettison the points and place my money on the moneyline. Unsure what it's paying but if the spread is 7...the odds on the moneyline must be attractive.


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 Post subject: Re: San fran opens as 7 point favs
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 3:54 pm 
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i thought someone stated 8.5 ? on sunday right before the games started.


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 Post subject: Re: San fran opens as 7 point favs
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 3:56 pm 
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Ya I believe vegas gives 3.5 automatically for home field advantage so to say the niners are 3.5 favorites isn't that egregious.


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 Post subject: Re: San fran opens as 7 point favs
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 4:04 pm 
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Not the biggest insult out there- but it's not personal with Vegas - it's about where the money goes.

The 49ers take a lot more bets in Vegas than Seattle does. Therefore, the number has to be set where Vegas feels they can get a fairly equal number of bettors on either side - that way they take "the vig" no matter who wins. If you could earn 5% on your money every week, you'd do it to. Just good economics.

As a handicapper, peering into these numbers, I'd say "don't bet on this game" because the emotions are too high. The Seahawks have shown a propensity of turning the ball over on the road, and also the 49ers have shown they can sting us with special teams plays. This blows up the number and makes it almost better to bet with the 49ers due to recent history. However, Seattle has been stingy with D, solid on ST and been in position to win all 6 games in the 4th quarter this year - which says take the 7.

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 Post subject: Re: San fran opens as 7 point favs
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 4:13 pm 
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I agree with the emotional impact on this game (as mentioned above). It's a smart bettor that stays away from these 'only game of the day' games. A generous portion of our society is none to bright and will always bet on a game just because they can see the action unfold on TV.

There was a time I made a lot of money betting on (or against) teams like Brown, Colgate and Yale. Pressed to get their lines out, the books don't spend much time with games like these and that's where the lines are weak and can be exploited. Don't bet (serious money) on a game because it's your team or because it's on TV. Just don't.


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 Post subject: Re: San fran opens as 7 point favs
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 4:27 pm 
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It's a pretty fair line. HFA is worth 3 points in the betting market. Being a home team on a Thursday night game is probably worth a couple more points. This line looks like the 49ers would be favored by about 2-3 against the Hawks on a neutral field, which seems fair at this point. If this was a Sunday game, it wouldn't be a 7 point line.

nsport wrote:
The 49ers take a lot more bets in Vegas than Seattle does. Therefore, the number has to be set where Vegas feels they can get a fairly equal number of bettors on either side - that way they take "the vig" no matter who wins. If you could earn 5% on your money every week, you'd do it to. Just good economics.

This is wrong. If you could earn 0 half of the weeks, and 20% on your money the other half of the weeks, that is better economics than earning 5% every week. Also, a fairly equal number of betters doesn't mean a fairly equal amount of money being wagered on each side. A hundred $10 bets on one side have the same impact as one $1000 bet on the other side. Sportsbooks can never assume that they will get an even amount of money on both sides of a given event. Say the MGM or whatever casino actually gets a near even amount of money on both sides throughout the week. Then Floyd Mayweather comes in 30 minutes before kickoff and places a $500,000 bet on one side. Now what? The key to sportsbooks making money consistently is setting accurate lines, which they do. If the lines aren't accurate, the sharp bettors will exploit them and win in the long run.


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 Post subject: Re: San fran opens as 7 point favs
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 4:31 pm 
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we have won every game we were expected to lose and loss the 2 we were expected to win so this is fine with me


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 Post subject: Re: San fran opens as 7 point favs
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 4:56 pm 
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jewhawk wrote:
It's a pretty fair line. HFA is worth 3 points in the betting market. Being a home team on a Thursday night game is probably worth a couple more points. This line looks like the 49ers would be favored by about 2-3 against the Hawks on a neutral field, which seems fair at this point. If this was a Sunday game, it wouldn't be a 7 point line.

nsport wrote:
The 49ers take a lot more bets in Vegas than Seattle does. Therefore, the number has to be set where Vegas feels they can get a fairly equal number of bettors on either side - that way they take "the vig" no matter who wins. If you could earn 5% on your money every week, you'd do it to. Just good economics.

This is wrong. If you could earn 0 half of the weeks, and 20% on your money the other half of the weeks, that is better economics than earning 5% every week. Also, a fairly equal number of betters doesn't mean a fairly equal amount of money being wagered on each side. A hundred $10 bets on one side have the same impact as one $1000 bet on the other side. Sportsbooks can never assume that they will get an even amount of money on both sides of a given event. Say the MGM or whatever casino actually gets a near even amount of money on both sides throughout the week. Then Floyd Mayweather comes in 30 minutes before kickoff and places a $500,000 bet on one side. Now what? The key to sportsbooks making money consistently is setting accurate lines, which they do. If the lines aren't accurate, the sharp bettors will exploit them and win in the long run.



The books look to balance the action as close as possible. This is why the fluctuations in lines. I've watched lines open at 7 and fall to 3 by game time because of late money coming in. This is where it gets really spooky for Vegas. People that bet taking the 7 turn around and give the 3 hoping to catch the middle. Good times.


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 Post subject: Re: San fran opens as 7 point favs
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 4:59 pm 
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Hey we're coming off a great win but let's not kid ourselves, SF is a pretty good team. It is going to be a tall order to beat them let alone keep within a TD. They are pissed as hell getting embarrassed on national TV by the Gnats. Chances are Harbaugh isn't going to let that happen 2 weeks in a row.

Don't get me wrong, I think we have a decent chance of pulling out a victory but I wouldn't be terribly surprised if we got blown out too coming off a huge emotional win over the Pats.


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 Post subject: Re: San fran opens as 7 point favs
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 5:01 pm 
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I'm certainly no gambling expert or anything but I would assume that the home team has a greater advantage on a Thursday game then they would on a Sunday game. Just the short week, lack of preparation, one extra day of not having to travel, and all that stuff.

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 Post subject: Re: San fran opens as 7 point favs
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 5:04 pm 
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jewhawk wrote:
It's a pretty fair line. HFA is worth 3 points in the betting market. Being a home team on a Thursday night game is probably worth a couple more points. This line looks like the 49ers would be favored by about 2-3 against the Hawks on a neutral field, which seems fair at this point. If this was a Sunday game, it wouldn't be a 7 point line.

nsport wrote:
The 49ers take a lot more bets in Vegas than Seattle does. Therefore, the number has to be set where Vegas feels they can get a fairly equal number of bettors on either side - that way they take "the vig" no matter who wins. If you could earn 5% on your money every week, you'd do it to. Just good economics.

This is wrong. If you could earn 0 half of the weeks, and 20% on your money the other half of the weeks, that is better economics than earning 5% every week. Also, a fairly equal number of betters doesn't mean a fairly equal amount of money being wagered on each side. A hundred $10 bets on one side have the same impact as one $1000 bet on the other side. Sportsbooks can never assume that they will get an even amount of money on both sides of a given event. Say the MGM or whatever casino actually gets a near even amount of money on both sides throughout the week. Then Floyd Mayweather comes in 30 minutes before kickoff and places a $500,000 bet on one side. Now what? The key to sportsbooks making money consistently is setting accurate lines, which they do. If the lines aren't accurate, the sharp bettors will exploit them and win in the long run.


Maybe I'm misunderstanding your position, but I was simplifying the concept for the crowds who don't know that much about it. The game is inflated due to three factors: First, the 49ers have owned the Seahawks. 2nd, it's one game on one night and they will take more money than usual on this game than they would if it was lumped in with 14 other games on Sunday. And 3rd, they have really good analysis of betting and actual sports trending that gets them really close to the actual result. The casual fan will bet with their heart, the exploitation you talk about happens ALL THE TIME. You see those numbers move at the last minute most frequently in horses and boxing, but it happens in football, too. Trust me - those guys are taking millions and guaranteeing themselves cash on every transaction. They could give a rats ass if you make $200 - what they want is the extra $20 when someone loses $200. It all evens out - and they make money big time.

And yes, I'm right about the 5%. If they take $110/100 on each side, they take $220. One guy loses his bet and gives up $110. The other guy wins his bet and is returned $210. That's $10 net profit for the casino. 5% of take. I'm talking about the house's take. And yes, they move the lines depending on how many people bet on a particular game - this is done over the course of the season. There are games they win big time, and those they lose big time, but it all evens out. They never lose, man.

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 Post subject: Re: San fran opens as 7 point favs
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 5:11 pm 
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Yea - what I'm saying is the line is not personal... but I can see how a team or fan could take it personal due to the fact that there is no confidence in bettors that we could win our game. My gut says take the 7 and make some dough!

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 Post subject: Re: San fran opens as 7 point favs
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 5:21 pm 
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Whatever happens I'd take the under on this one.

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 Post subject: Re: San fran opens as 7 point favs
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 5:46 pm 
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XxxZagnutxxX wrote:
Whatever happens I'd take the under on this one.



They've got that bugger set very tight. 37 is a relatively low O/U and while both Ds are fantastic, both offenses should be clicking at this point in the season. It was apparent PC is putting more trust in our Rook and allowing him to throw down field. That could score more pts for us...or against us. The under may be the way to go, but SF can score. Their lacklustre offensive display yesterday was anticipated and explainable. It's a phenomenom (sp?) that happens only a few times a year, league-wide.

I won't go into all the reasons why (here) but there were several key indicators that predicted they would fall to the NYG (or any other team they might have played yesterday) at least vs the spread. I have sworn off betting after it became more lifestyle than fun, but I am kicking myself in the a$$ for not getting some of that very easy money won betting against the 9ers yersterday.

I will end this by saying that is not going to happen with the 9ers again anytime soon. We will have to have our A+ game to beat their B+ game on their turf this Thursday. Since my last post, I've (just for fun) crunched a few pertinent numbers and I am less confident now than I was prior to doing the numbers. It's going to be a tough one but great teams find ways to win such games. Thursday will help us learn whether we are great...or just very good. GO HAWKS!


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 Post subject: Re: San fran opens as 7 point favs
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 6:09 pm 
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nsport wrote:
And yes, I'm right about the 5%. If they take $110/100 on each side, they take $220. One guy loses his bet and gives up $110. The other guy wins his bet and is returned $210. That's $10 net profit for the casino. 5% of take. I'm talking about the house's take.

You misunderstood my point. I know what the vig is. My point is they're taking 5% on every bet regardless of how many bets are made on either side. You seem to understand this is the case when you said, two sentences later:
nsport wrote:
There are games they win big time, and those they lose big time, but it all evens out. They never lose, man.

Which of course is true. So naturally, it doesn't matter if they get even money on both sides or if they lose money on one game because the books will win over the course of the season. What matters is consistently setting accurate lines over the course of the season to minimize the ability of the sharps to exploit the lines.

nsport wrote:
And yes, they move the lines depending on how many people bet on a particular game - this is done over the course of the season.

No, it doesn't matter how many people bet on a particular game. What matters is the amount of money being wagered. We opened as 5 point underdogs to New England last week and it moved to 3.5 by game day. You think there were more people betting on the Seahawks than the Patriots? There weren't. But for every casual bettor putting his $20 on the Patriots, there were sharps putting significantly more on the Hawks at +5. The public doesn't move the betting lines; the sharps do. Even if it's true, as you said, that “the 49ers take a lot more bets in Vegas than Seattle,” that has no relevance to the betting line.


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 Post subject: Re: San fran opens as 7 point favs
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 6:30 pm 
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jewhawk wrote:
No, it doesn't matter how many people bet on a particular game. What matters is the amount of money being wagered. We opened as 5 point underdogs to New England last week and it moved to 3.5 by game day. You think there were more people betting on the Seahawks than the Patriots? There weren't. But for every casual bettor putting his $20 on the Patriots, there were sharps putting significantly more on the Hawks at +5. The public doesn't move the betting lines; the sharps do. Even if it's true, as you said, that “the 49ers take a lot more bets in Vegas than Seattle,” that has no relevance to the betting line.


Don't be a Richard Cranium. You know just what I mean - not sure why you're twisting my words... Let me be as explicit as possible, so we can put this boring thread to bed:

Fact (I think we agree on): Money moves the lines.
Fact: "Sharp" money is the same as "amateur" money
Speculation: SF has more bettors interested in betting for the 49ers than the Seahawks - if they didn't, the line would be 3 or 3.5 - maybe an extra 1 or 2 points in their favor due to their recent dominance of us.
Fact: Whether that translates into more money bet on either team given the opening spread will determine which way the line moves.
Fact: You're technically correct based on my word choice that it's not the number of bets, it's the total wagered. But no need to be snarky. Sheesh - you act like your team just lost to the sissy Patriots.

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 Post subject: Re: San fran opens as 7 point favs
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 6:58 pm 
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nsport wrote:
Speculation: SF has more bettors interested in betting for the 49ers than the Seahawks - if they didn't, the line would be 3 or 3.5 - maybe an extra 1 or 2 points in their favor due to their recent dominance of us.

This has nothing to do with the betting line. If this were the case, the league's more popular teams would historically perform worse against the spread than less popular teams. But every team approaches .500 against the spread historically.

nsport wrote:
Fact: "Sharp" money is the same as "amateur" money

Online sportsbooks profile their bettors and weigh bets from known sharps heavier when considering line movements. Also, sharps generally bet much larger sums than amateurs.


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 Post subject: Re: San fran opens as 7 point favs
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 7:37 pm 
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I've never heard the word "sharps" used in the context you are using it. Do you mean to say whales? Or are you referring to "smart money" bettors. Don't pay too much attention to that term. It's a term usually bestowed upon late bettors. That don't necessarily make them smart...just late.

As both myself and nsport continue to tell you, all Vegas wants to do is balance their books. Period. I don't want to beat this to death or desire to be all knowing, but gambling is a serious matter and this thread is about that. We need to present only facts or end the discussion.

Knowing a little about gambling is like knowing a little about flying airplanes. In fact, here's some great, free advice; if you can't fly an airplane...don't gamble.


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 Post subject: Re: San fran opens as 7 point favs
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 7:57 pm 
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jewhawk wrote:
nsport wrote:
Speculation: SF has more bettors interested in betting for the 49ers than the Seahawks - if they didn't, the line would be 3 or 3.5 - maybe an extra 1 or 2 points in their favor due to their recent dominance of us.

This has nothing to do with the betting line. If this were the case, the league's more popular teams would historically perform worse against the spread than less popular teams. But every team approaches .500 against the spread historically.

nsport wrote:
Fact: "Sharp" money is the same as "amateur" money

Online sportsbooks profile their bettors and weigh bets from known sharps heavier when considering line movements. Also, sharps generally bet much larger sums than amateurs.


It's a lot out of hand... how pray tell do you open the line then?

It's sooooo simple. I'm surprised it's lost on you. You make some valid points about the line moving and the fact that the ATS stat gravitates toward 50%. Yea! It does! Because they are fantastic at statistical analysis and opening their eyes, just like bettors and just like "sharps". You are totally delusional if you think you are right. It's a word game with you and that's it. Do you not believe me?? Go to Atlantic City and bet on the Arizona Cardinals, then go to Vegas. They will be DIFFERENT lines as you roll through the different betting regions. Your "sharps" I have seen 100 times drive like a bat out of hell to chase down a 2 or 3 point difference in a game at the casino down the road - and I've seen it make guy's years getting that extra point or two. The reason that line moved is because somebody got tipped off or a bunch of Seahawks fans were staying in that hotel, or a big whale showed up who loves the Niners. Who cares!? There's money to be made for smart bettors - but the books don't care either way. It's statistically in their favor. Period.

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 Post subject: Re: San fran opens as 7 point favs
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 8:08 pm 
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blue 22 wrote:
Oct. 18 Seattle
5:25 p.m. at San Francisco
Favorite SFO SFO SFO
Point spread -7 -7 -7
Total 37½o/u 38o/u 37½o/u
Total money line -110 -110 -110

http://www.vegas.com/gaming/


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I think it's right. Might come down to 6 or 5 by gametime. Niners are pissed and the Seahawks may be emotionally soft from the Pats win. Plus its a road game

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 Post subject: Re: San fran opens as 7 point favs
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 8:18 pm 
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HawkWow wrote:
I've never heard the word "sharps" used in the context you are using it. Do you mean to say whales? Or are you referring to "smart money" bettors. Don't pay too much attention to that term. It's a term usually bestowed upon late bettors. That don't necessarily make them smart...just late.

“Sharps” = smart money bettors. It has nothing to do with late bettors, and I have no idea where you got that impression.

HawkWow wrote:
As both myself and nsport continue to tell you, all Vegas wants to do is balance their books. Period. I don't want to beat this to death or desire to be all knowing, but gambling is a serious matter and this thread is about that. We need to present only facts or end the discussion.

You're missing the point that the books can't completely balance the action on both sides. If a couple rich guys come in and bet a few million on one side, then unless it's a super high profile event like the Super Bowl, the book will take a loss on that game if the rich guys' side wins. It's unavoidable, but it doesn't matter because those types of bets even out in the long run. They don't have to (and can't) make a profit on every single line offered.

The key to sportsbooks making a profit in the long run is setting accurate lines that the sharps can't exploit. If the lines are not exploitable, then in the long run the sportsbooks will win at the rate of the vig.

HawkWow wrote:
Knowing a little about gambling is like knowing a little about flying airplanes. In fact, here's some great, free advice; if you can't fly an airplane...don't gamble.

You probably shouldn't take this insulting tone in a thread about gambling when you don't even know the definition of a simple word like “sharps.” Especially when you are wrong.


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 Post subject: Re: San fran opens as 7 point favs
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 8:33 pm 
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nsport wrote:
It's a lot out of hand... how pray tell do you open the line then?

I have no idea what you're asking. Is the question how the sportsbooks determine the opening lines? If so, they have handicappers who analyze databases full of historical stats, trends, and information on every player and every team. There is a lot more information going into handicapping than a few people making predictions.

nsport wrote:
It's sooooo simple. I'm surprised it's lost on you. You make some valid points about the line moving and the fact that the ATS stat gravitates toward 50%. Yea! It does! Because they are fantastic at statistical analysis and opening their eyes, just like bettors and just like "sharps". You are totally delusional if you think you are right. It's a word game with you and that's it.

I can't tell how much of this is sarcasm. Are you disagreeing that every team gravitates toward 50% ATS?

nsport wrote:
Go to Atlantic City and bet on the Arizona Cardinals, then go to Vegas. They will be DIFFERENT lines as you roll through the different betting regions. Your "sharps" I have seen 100 times drive like a bat out of hell to chase down a 2 or 3 point difference in a game at the casino down the road

This is flat out wrong. The only way you're ever getting a 2-3 point difference on a game in two different casinos is if it's something like -3 (-125) at one casino and -5 (+130) at another, and there isn't much difference between those odds. You're never, ever, ever going to find a 2-3 point difference on the standard -110 line at two different casinos on the same NFL game.


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 Post subject: Re: San fran opens as 7 point favs
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 8:57 pm 
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jewhawk wrote:
nsport wrote:
It's a lot out of hand... how pray tell do you open the line then?

I have no idea what you're asking. Is the question how the sportsbooks determine the opening lines? If so, they have handicappers who analyze databases full of historical stats, trends, and information on every player and every team. There is a lot more information going into handicapping than a few people making predictions.

nsport wrote:
It's sooooo simple. I'm surprised it's lost on you. You make some valid points about the line moving and the fact that the ATS stat gravitates toward 50%. Yea! It does! Because they are fantastic at statistical analysis and opening their eyes, just like bettors and just like "sharps". You are totally delusional if you think you are right. It's a word game with you and that's it.

I can't tell how much of this is sarcasm. Are you disagreeing that every team gravitates toward 50% ATS?

nsport wrote:
Go to Atlantic City and bet on the Arizona Cardinals, then go to Vegas. They will be DIFFERENT lines as you roll through the different betting regions. Your "sharps" I have seen 100 times drive like a bat out of hell to chase down a 2 or 3 point difference in a game at the casino down the road

This is flat out wrong. The only way you're ever getting a 2-3 point difference on a game in two different casinos is if it's something like -3 (-125) at one casino and -5 (+130) at another, and there isn't much difference between those odds. You're never, ever, ever going to find a 2-3 point difference on the standard -110 line at two different casinos on the same NFL game.


Well, it's laughable at this point. Now you are arguing with two people. So funny, dude. Seriously - you're bent and misleading people big time and apparently not reading posts. I can summarize ONE MORE TIME - then I'm done. As a matter of fact, maybe a mod can lock this post when I'm done.

1: Lines are set based on a NUMBER of factors - some you are correct on some of them. I won't argue all of your points as flat wrong, even though you seem certain we are all wrong. Some I can just round the point for you as a benefit - these factors include recent history between teams, injuries, home/away, time of day, type of field, etc. - They even add the rumor mill and and eyeball test. The stat gurus consider dozens of aspects before they release a line - including how much they think the betting public favors a team. All of these things and more determine the opening lines.
2: Lines move based upon the dollar amount bet in that current house. This goes for online wagering as well. Don't be foolish or naive. This is how it has always been.
3: Informed bettors know where the best line values are. Yes, I have seen with my own eyes, people racing out of Caesars and bolting down to MGM to get a couple points. It happens! The same is true of books - if they are flooded with everyone moving one way on a game - that specific book will move their line to entice bettors the other way. And yes, you are correct that sometimes they change -110 to another less favorable number. The bettor assist himself by buying points as well.
4: I will even add that some houses might even move a line a 1/2 point or a point to entice bettors to their house! You bet! It's called marketing!

So again - Jewhawk - don't be naive or press your point any further. This is how it is... If you must know I used to run a service and I've seen it all.

To further illustrate my point, I think there is still a tool for sale somewhere where somebody had some software that tracked all the lines for all the sports and taught you how to play reversed lines globally in online sports books so you would win based on the lay number and the different spreads - like one team favored in a book, and another book had it the other way. Well if you lay enough money, you basically take home the vig and/or double-up your bets. Dude - I totally know what I'm talking about... time to put down the keyboard. :)

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 Post subject: Re: San fran opens as 7 point favs
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 8:59 pm 
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Guess whose putting money up on this game.
this guy!!!!

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 Post subject: Re: San fran opens as 7 point favs
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 9:06 pm 
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I'm putting $1 billion of Paul Allen's money on the Seahawks at (+7) .... pssht it's a no brainer, are you kidding me Vegas?

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 Post subject: Re: San fran opens as 7 point favs
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 9:23 pm 
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am i wierd for reading this whole thread even though i understood about 10% of it...?


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 Post subject: Re: San fran opens as 7 point favs
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 9:26 pm 
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AnchoviesofTerror wrote:
am i wierd for reading this whole thread even though i understood about 10% of it...?


Post of the day. Thank you kind sir for the levity.

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 Post subject: Re: San fran opens as 7 point favs
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 9:32 pm 
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Nsport- I'll ask again because you still haven't answered: do you agree with my statement that every team approaches 50% ATS historically? If so, then how is that the case if popular teams like the 49ers have more people wanting to bet on them than less popular teams like the Seahawks? Wouldn't you expect the more popular teams to get less favorable lines because people would bet on them anyway, and the result would be the more popular teams performing worse ATS? That isn't the case, though, because the lines are very accurate and not influenced by things like “The 49ers take a lot more bets in Vegas than the Seahawks.”

nsport wrote:
1: Lines are set based on a NUMBER of factors - some you are correct on some of them. I won't argue all of your points as flat wrong, even though you seem certain we are all wrong. Some I can just round the point for you as a benefit - these factors include recent history between teams, injuries, home/away, time of day, type of field, etc. - They even add the rumor mill and and eyeball test. The stat gurus consider dozens of aspects before they release a line - including how much they think the betting public favors a team. All of these things and more determine the opening lines.

This is correct, and I never said otherwise.

nsport wrote:
2: Lines move based upon the dollar amount bet in that current house. This goes for online wagering as well. Don't be foolish or naive. This is how it has always been.
3: Informed bettors know where the best line values are. Yes, I have seen with my own eyes, people racing out of Caesars and bolting down to MGM to get a couple points. It happens! The same is true of books - if they are flooded with everyone moving one way on a game - that specific book will move their line to entice bettors the other way. And yes, you are correct that sometimes they change -110 to another less favorable number. The bettor assist himself by buying points as well.

This is where you are wrong. If Floyd Mayweather bets $1 million on the 49ers at Caesar's, and Charles Barkley bets $1 million on the Seahawks at MGM, it's not going to result in Caesar's moving the line to 7.5 and MGM moving it to 6.5. The lines are roughly the same at every casino.

The point you're missing is that sportsbooks can't just move the line and get equal action. For example, say -7 is a fair line for this game. Then say a group of extremely rich Seahawks fans go to Vegas tomorrow and collectively bet several million dollars on the Seahawks at the MGM. If they move the line a couple points to entice more 49ers bets to even out the money, the sharps would pound the line at 49ers -5. Then the casino would be stuck in an awful spot where if the 49ers won by 5-7 points, the casino would take a huge loss. Instead, the casino would leave the line at 7 and only take a loss if the Seahawks cover, but making a big profit if the 49ers cover. It wouldn't hurt the casino to take that loss, however, because if the lines are accurate, those situations will even out over the long run.


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 Post subject: Re: San fran opens as 7 point favs
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 9:44 pm 
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Argh! I was going to bed... now I can't go because this is killing me slowly.

For your first point and second point it's simple market economics. They all gravitate towards the ATS number because when you bet or analyze with bias eventually both sides get a fair shake over time. If you do this for 10 weeks, you'll see that certain teams will cover 8 of 10. But if you do it for 10 seasons, it's going to be near 50%. The demographics of people betting their money on games comes with supply and demand. This all plays out in a macrocosm way, but you are inferring it is a microcosm. I am inferring that there are direct market influences that affect the spread. As a matter of fact, a fighter did exactly what you said and bet on himself at Bodog. I don't know exactly what it did to the traditional books, but I guarantee you it affected Bodog's line. How could it not!!? The book would have never taken the bet otherwise - I would bet (no pun intended) that they actually benefited from it due to the market condition of "look how famous we are, come bet at Bodog" factor - which probably ALSO moved the lines slightly. You forget also that the fat bettors that are indeed out there are not the "sharps" you refer to, but are whales that are about as stupid as the average bettor. Don't forget the seedy underworld of real-time information that also moves lines. Don't be naive man. This is the real world. The sharps are in the minority. The rest of the public says "oh wow, look the line moved a point, I'm going to chase it" - I've seen that so many times my head spins. This whole notion of sharps is plain stupid. Professional bettors scour a board of 250 games every weekend to find 4 or 5 good ones. The only reason this game is relevant is it is competing with Thursday/Friday NCAAF so more money will statistically be bet on this game since it's on prime time network and the only NFL game. Yes... that's a market influence that will affect the betting public. Believe me - this is MACROCOSM of MARKET ECONOMICS and STATISTICS. That's it buddy. That's it.

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 Post subject: Re: San fran opens as 7 point favs
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 10:32 pm 
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nsport wrote:
For your first point and second point it's simple market economics. They all gravitate towards the ATS number because when you bet or analyze with bias eventually both sides get a fair shake over time. If you do this for 10 weeks, you'll see that certain teams will cover 8 of 10. But if you do it for 10 seasons, it's going to be near 50%. The demographics of people betting their money on games comes with supply and demand.

What kind of bias do you think exists in the betting market that would result in more 49ers bettors than Seahawks bettors. Maybe I misunderstood you, but your earlier posts in this thread led me to believe that you thought the line was inflated because the 49ers are a more popular team and have a larger fanbase than the Seahawks, meaning more people wanting to bet on the 49ers. That isn't a bias that would get a fair shake over time. Teams like the 49ers, Cowboys, Packers, etc. have always been more popular than teams like the Seahawks, Jaguars, Rams, etc. But all of those teams approach 50% ATS historically. If you mean the bias is because the 49ers have been a better team recently and because of that more people would bet them ATS, that isn't the case either. If it were, people would generally want to bet on the favorites so you would expect spreads to be inflated, and thus the favorites would cover less than the underdogs. But that isn't the case either, as favorites and underdogs both cover 50% of the time historically.

nsport wrote:
As a matter of fact, a fighter did exactly what you said and bet on himself at Bodog. I don't know exactly what it did to the traditional books, but I guarantee you it affected Bodog's line. How could it not!!? The book would have never taken the bet otherwise - I would bet (no pun intended) that they actually benefited from it due to the market condition of "look how famous we are, come bet at Bodog" factor - which probably ALSO moved the lines slightly.

I don't see how that has anything to do with anything I've said in this thread, but I'd be interested to read about it. Do you have a link to the story about that happening (or at least the fighter's name so I can try to google it myself)? I'm not questioning you; I'm just genuinely interested in why a fighter would be allowed by his sport's regulating body to bet on his own match.


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 Post subject: Re: San fran opens as 7 point favs
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 16, 2012 4:07 am 
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Here's a couple points of reference - I understand this is a bit weak; a little like Wikipedia - but there's not too many news releases on point spread moves - this is regarded as "ordinary information" in the business: http://www.docsports.com/line/moves.html
College Football: http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-foo ... las-vegas/ - College is much more notorious for big line moves.

One of your "Big points" is the idea that Vegas won't take a chance and put themselves in a position to lose twice by the lines chasers. They do it ALL THE TIME. It's not as frequent in the NFL; mainly because (in my opinion) the NFL can be counted on to be more statistically relevant. But I used to make money finding the errors that Vegas made in those statistics or factors I saw that they didn't.

As for the fighter that bet on himself - I can't find the link... I thought it was Bodog or Bovada and he bet on himself and tattooed the offshore casino on his body somewhere and bragged about it... Here was a guy who did; you might be able to find the associated line move somewhere - but I won't take the time to do it: http://www.proboxing-fans.com/fighter-p ... d-hopkins/

In any case, you need to understand that this or any other than any external factor can move a line. A little or a lot. Whether it's wise guys, weather, whales, or just the public perception. The line CAN move to where Vegas can lose both sides - but you absolutely have to remember that if there were only 10 bettors and the line moved enough to attract 5 more bettors to the other side - at the end of the day (statistically speaking) - the numbers balance out. That's why they have to move the lines.

To your other point - in CFB or even NFL - betting with bias simply means that people choose who they bet on for various reasons. Lots of reasons exist, popularity is just one of them. If the 49ers are 5-0 ATS their last 5 - then guess what? I think it's a pretty good trend that I'm going to take the 49ers on the next game. If they are 9-1 there last 10 night games ATS and 15-0 against rookie QB's ATS - HELL YES - I'm taking the 49ers. But that's just a small amount of data in the grand scheme of things. Over the next 10 years, all of these numbers will even out. That's the difference between micro and macro. That's why the sports bet exists.

One of my favorite sites to find little statistical loopholes and trends is here: http://sportsdirect.usatoday.com/odds/u ... /odds.aspx - USA Today has put this stuff out for over a decade. It shows those micro trends that sometimes help something jump off the board and smack you in the face. I have been on that page 100's of times and caught something only to see the line reflect it on game day. Danny Sheridan's lines are equally helpful in finding these little gems. Look at this one: http://stats.denverpost.com/odds/nfl.aspx - full line moves in the NFL of over 1 point. I don't get what you are saying, honestly. This is COMMON KNOWLEDGE and I feel like you are just trying to say, "hey look, I just out maneuvered the .NET Sports Handicapper" - "Look how smart I am" - that's not what's happening here. You are taking weird angles and twisting them. What I am explaining is very common knowledge.

Again, it is VERY SIMPLE....

The books set the lines where they think the money will be bet fairly evenly. Every week they get close on a lot of games statistically, but often they get it wrong - even when statistics tell you otherwise. One of those stats is popularity. That is why I think the 49ers got a little bump in point spread. If this game is played on Sunday, the line is closer to the 3.5 it should be. Over time, if you played that game 100 consecutive times with 100 different opening lines, I'd be willing to stake my reputation on the fact that you would be 100% right about one thing - everything would gravitate towards 50%. But... we are playing on ONE game on Thursday - which is why there is a weighted preference for the 49ers. They set the line there so you can have that little battle in your head of "jeez, should I bet Seattle because the line is so much in their favor?" - that's the conversation they WANT you to have. Your "sharps" probably are betting Seattle. The whales are probably betting SF. The general public has trended toward betting Seattle based on the fact the line has moved down... And, according to the Denver Post and USA Today, it's done that by a full two points.

You gotta understand - if it's 10 bettors, you'd see this happen in much wider fluctuation - there's not 10 bettors, there are millions of them. Even a 1/2 point is a huge deal to some people. You can see on Denver Post and USA today that the line actually opened much higher - and now you can see it level out at -7. It's going to move again by Thursday night. There are so many people betting on this game and statistically they know what they are doing and how to get people to do what they want. Are there extreme cases where in CFB Florida State has a multiple point advantage if you have them at MGM vs. Hilton? YES!!!! It happens ALL THE TIME. EVERY WEEK. Are there games that the line moves and it lands right in the middle? YES... EVERY WEEK. But that really doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things because it's MACRO to the casinos. For all the bettors, it's microcosms...

** Edited and Added **
One other point regarding point spreads... you can see the microcosm aspect in play if you go to a sports book in NYC, Miami, or Dallas - when you get a line from a bookie in those areas, they get way too many people betting on the home teams. They have to pump their lines up to balance it out. When *clears throat* "a guy I knew in college" used to bet through the greek system's bookies, Washington was in the national championship hunt every year. They were the best team in the Pac-10. You book through them and Washington was a solid 10-14 points different from the betting line published in the newspaper. I remember seeing one week Washington vs. OSU, and the papers had Washington as 15 point favorites or something. This bookie had it at Washington -28. It's because he was getting killed and Washington was probably going to win by 35. If I recall that year, the Huskies pretty much covered every game - but that's not really the point now is it? The same thing happens in the SEC, ACC, BIG 10, WAC, etc. every single week. Add the NFL to that list...

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 Post subject: Re: San fran opens as 7 point favs
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 16, 2012 8:13 am 
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nsport wrote:
One other point regarding point spreads... you can see the microcosm aspect in play if you go to a sports book in NYC, Miami, or Dallas - when you get a line from a bookie in those areas, they get way too many people betting on the home teams. They have to pump their lines up to balance it out. When *clears throat* "a guy I knew in college" used to bet through the greek system's bookies, Washington was in the national championship hunt every year. They were the best team in the Pac-10. You book through them and Washington was a solid 10-14 points different from the betting line published in the newspaper. I remember seeing one week Washington vs. OSU, and the papers had Washington as 15 point favorites or something. This bookie had it at Washington -28. It's because he was getting killed and Washington was probably going to win by 35. If I recall that year, the Huskies pretty much covered every game - but that's not really the point now is it? The same thing happens in the SEC, ACC, BIG 10, WAC, etc. every single week. Add the NFL to that list...

There aren't any legal sportsbooks in New York, Florida, or Texas. You're describing what might happen with small underground bookies running their books through a local clientele. I don't know anything about these kinds of books, and you might be completely right about them, but that doesn't have any relevance in a discussion about legitimate Vegas books and their lines.

nsport wrote:
In any case, you need to understand that this or any other than any external factor can move a line. A little or a lot. Whether it's wise guys, weather, whales, or just the public perception. The line CAN move to where Vegas can lose both sides - but you absolutely have to remember that if there were only 10 bettors and the line moved enough to attract 5 more bettors to the other side - at the end of the day (statistically speaking) - the numbers balance out. That's why they have to move the lines.

No, if there are a few large wagers on one side at the original line, moving the line a couple points to attract more money to the other side does not balance the numbers out. It puts the books at the risk of getting middled – in other words, the potential of a result where bettors on both sides win and the books lose big. If a sportsbook takes 10 bets on the 49ers at -7, responds by moving the line to -5, then takes 5 bets on the Seahawks at +5, the book will lose huge if the 49ers win by 5-7 points. It doesn't guarantee a profit for the book short-term or long-term.

Here is a good article on line movement. It's the sharp bettors that are moving lines. You're right that books will inevitably get middled sometimes, but they are not moving lines based only on the amount wagered on each side at that book.


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 Post subject: Re: San fran opens as 7 point favs
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 16, 2012 8:42 am 
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AAAh nothing better than gamblers arguing about, well gambling, might as well be religion in that everybody’s right as long as they believe….enough.

The only thing I know for sure is the odds are never in your favor when you walk into a casino, if they ever were the MGM would be a KFC :P

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 Post subject: Re: San fran opens as 7 point favs
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 16, 2012 8:53 am 
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FidelisHawk wrote:
AAAh nothing better than gamblers arguing about, well gambling, might as well be religion in that everybody’s right as long as they believe….enough.

The only thing I know for sure is the odds are never in your favor when you walk into a casino, if they ever were the MGM would be a KFC :P


HA! my dad always you use to say.... son! "the casino always wins, DONT GAMBLE!" lol


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 Post subject: Re: San fran opens as 7 point favs
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 16, 2012 9:17 am 
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-7.5 may seem a bit high, but be forewarned that if you take the Seahawks on the road, or bet against them at home, you're going against The System.


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 Post subject: Re: San fran opens as 7 point favs
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 16, 2012 9:34 am 
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AnchoviesofTerror wrote:
am i wierd for reading this whole thread even though i understood about 10% of it...?


LOL ^ this... I love this thread. I kinda want to be a professional gambler when I grow up now. :327321_Spy_23.22:

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 Post subject: Re: San fran opens as 7 point favs
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 16, 2012 9:58 am 
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I am so floored at the naivety of Mr Jewhawk. Your article says precisely what I'm saying but you refuse to support it. I swear I'm talking to the lookalike Jim Harbaugh from the other thread.

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 Post subject: Re: San fran opens as 7 point favs
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 16, 2012 10:07 am 
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chawx wrote:
AnchoviesofTerror wrote:
am i wierd for reading this whole thread even though i understood about 10% of it...?


LOL ^ this... I love this thread. I kinda want to be a professional gambler when I grow up now. :327321_Spy_23.22:


And by the way I now officially hate this thread. I have no idea what this fool is doing. By that I think more me than Jewhawk at this point. This whole thing is ridiculous. Secret to baiting me into an argument is to belittle very minor phraseology and regurgitate just what I said and ignore the pertinent parts. Totally under my skin - qualifies for the shack now since I literally want to use foul language and club baby seals.

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