Russell Wilson VS Every Single Rookie Starter of Past 20 Yrs

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  • Ugh. Anguish, hurry up and fix this thing. Being constantly logged off while on mobile site in particular it seems, is maddening.

    I've more to say to hawkadaus, but will wait to get on laptop. In the meantime, the silly white knight shtick is, well, silly.
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    MysterMatt
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  • Having to deal with my moms death this week I'm a bit late to this party, but wanted to say to the OP great post! :th2thumbs: Don't let the critics get you down keep it up.
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    Bakergirl
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  • @ the OP. I don't need to measure his stats against anything to know what I see. To me, being clutch in the 4th quarter, even after 3 shitty quarters, is where greatness is measured. I'm not ripping your efforts, it was a decent post. It just does not tell me anything I didn't already know.

    Stats are mostly useless. If they really meant something, Flynn would have won the job based on a single game from last year. Results based analysis is nearly useless, our staff knows that, and Wilson, who won the job both off the field and on, is proving that true.

    For example, some are looking at how many yards we gave up last week, and thinking this D might be over rated. Nearly 500 yards of offense for the Pats? But those who actually know a little are saying different. Stats don't tell the real story.
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    Scottemojo
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  • Hawkadeus, great posts. I suppose if must have been Tech Worlds you were referring to about constantly criticizing Wilson in the days before the Pats win. I did notice his negative attitude towards Wilson and the whole too-short rookie thing. It's just seemed way out of proportion to the actual data on Wilson's play. It's a fair point you make, if someone's down on Wilson relentlessly, right before the Patriots performance, why don't they come back and tell us how they're still right, Wilson sucks, and his play against the Pats was a fluke? Or maybe it's time for Wilson haters to eat a little crow? The know-it-all Wilson doubters are looking ignorant and prejudiced right now. Hell, I'm ignorant and prejudiced all over the place, and I'm OK with that. Big deal. I was ignorant enough to make the call that the Hawks would draft Wilson in the 3rd round, several days before the draft. I knew Wilson was something truly special, height-be-damned, and I was certain that CarrolL coveted Wilson and the whole Tannehill talk from PC was a smokescreen. But what I was sure I "knew" about Wilson could have just as easily been proven wrong at the NFL level. It hasn't--on this one.

    I'm with you that the whole thing with trying to pull some sort of "rank" by MysterMatt was just *WEIRD*, that you don't know who-knows-who here. It's great that buddies stick up for each other, but that was just a little over-sensitive or something. Your response comparing it to turf-warring cheerleaders was a hoot! I'm sure Tech Worlds can stand up for himself just fine and then some. Maybe he needed some time to reflect on Wilson's performance and see if he's still so sure it's the wrong direction. Whatever passionate Hawk fans from .NET I have the privilege to meet in person, I'm definitely going to buy them a round, whether they attack my posts or "this" them.

    I do wish you'd stop trying to confuse us with data and facts and logic, though, like you did in your posts reminding us to have realistic expectations for a rookie QB. Right now, Wilson looks like a Steve Young in the making, with a little bit of Warren Moon thrown in for good measure, just so we can relate to an actual past Seahawks QB. NOT Seneca Wallace, like some feared. NOT Rick Mirer. Not even Drew Brees. Steve Young, with a little Warren Moon and Fran Tarkenton for good measure. That's what I see when I see Wilson's play and how he prepares and how he leads. So now let's have all the Wilson doubters tell us why he still sucks and is too short, too panicked in the pocket (as if there's been one), etc. and PC is an idiot.
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    olyfan63
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  • Hawkadeus wrote:
    Scottemojo wrote:I like Wilson. And I think that chart is interesting, and useless. I think results based analysis usually is, and both sides of this debate have been too guilty of it.


    The point of the chart or this thread isn't to say, "See, look! Russell Wilson is good! And will have an amazing career!" No, the point is to show just what exactly are realisitic expectations of a rookie qb starting from day one.

    If somebody shows you statistics that show Wilson to be on par with multiple successful high draft picks, and you still don't want Wilson starting, you're basically saying "I don't want a rookie starting even had we drafted one in the 1st round." Which is a perfectly reasonable argument to make. But it needs to be separated from all of the "he's only a 3rd round pick/he's too short/he'll never get any better" nonsense that fills the debate. I got zero problems with someone categorically not believing in baptism by fire. I myself disagree strong, and feel the proof is in the pudding with how the league has been run recently. But it's an acceptable stance.

    What this chart does, IMO, is shines a light on the level of expecation and nitpicking that some of the less than fans of Wilson have brought to analyzing his play. They want to be hyper-critical of his every flaw and hold him to a standard that many current pro bowlers wouldn't pass, critiquing 2 or 3 "bad throws" after mostly solid games. And then want to act as if it's some sort of sign that the guy has no future.

    If he's playing like this and has no future, I don't know what the same people could say about guys like Ryan, Flacco, Stafford, or Manning. Oh no, I do. They'd say they had plenty of room to grow. And it would be all because they were told so by high draft position and draft experts.

    Russell Wilson, and the polarizing debate he brings with him, is a fascinating case study of fan expectations/opinions/idealogy and the impact perceived draft status/expert opinions/"conventional wisdom" play with shaping many's opinions and what they see.

    I'll say it again. If Wilson was drafted #8 overall, and 6'4", his current level of play would be held up against rookie performances like the ones on this chart with pride and optimism that he will only get better. But no, he's a 3rd round pick, and sub-6 ft. So he's guilty until proven innocent. And in some people's eyes, has to play perfectly to do so.

    See to me, what I highlighted is the point. The only ones making the nonsense arguments that I've seen are the Wilson supporters when the defend Wilson. they CLAIM that's what the people who'd rather see Flynn are saying. No matter how many times I've tried to explain, in great detail, that it matters not one whit how Wilson is doing compared to other rookies, what matters is that he IS a rookie, the defenders refuse to understand the point. It's not that they can't, it seems like they simply REFUSE to.

    And in order to KEEP refusing to accept this point, they fall back on "Well, we don't know what we have in Flynn." Despite the overwhelming evidence that Flynn has had more time to develop and has shown success, knows defenses better, etc. and so we have a pretty good indication that Flynn will not suffer from the rookie learning curve that Wilson will.

    That rookie learning curve COULD HAVE cost us a playoff spot. I am getting the feeling that with a 4-2 record and being past the toughest part of the schedule, this team can survive letting Wilson progress. Though honestly I know the Wilson supporters don't want to hear this, but tough titty, it is still quite possible taht once he's on the road, or facing a really tough defense, that all this "progress" will evaporate and he'll have a bad game again.

    And when his supporters cry "of course he had a bad game, he's a ROOKIE!" they will be in denial that THAT was the Flynn supporters point all along.

    But he's earned his right to take it as far as he can and he's got the talent. We all love the guy. He's got the intangibles too. But he didn't have to start this year. He wasn't as ready as Flynn. Now all that matters is that he continue to improve. He's shown he's a winner. That the team is behind him. That he can make big plays. The traiing wheels might be coming off. We'll all see.
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