Scottemojo wrote:I like Wilson. And I think that chart is interesting, and useless. I think results based analysis usually is, and both sides of this debate have been too guilty of it.
The point of the chart or this thread isn't to say, "See, look! Russell Wilson is good! And will have an amazing career!" No, the point is to show just what exactly are realisitic expectations of a rookie qb starting from day one.
If somebody shows you statistics that show Wilson to be on par with multiple successful high draft picks, and you still don't want Wilson starting, you're basically saying "I don't want a rookie starting even had we drafted one in the 1st round." Which is a perfectly reasonable argument to make. But it needs to be separated from all of the "he's only a 3rd round pick/he's too short/he'll never get any better" nonsense that fills the debate. I got zero problems with someone categorically not believing in baptism by fire. I myself disagree strong, and feel the proof is in the pudding with how the league has been run recently. But it's an acceptable stance.
What this chart does, IMO, is shines a light on the level of expecation and nitpicking that some of the less than fans of Wilson have brought to analyzing his play. They want to be hyper-critical of his every flaw and hold him to a standard that many current pro bowlers wouldn't pass, critiquing 2 or 3 "bad throws" after mostly solid games. And then want to act as if it's some sort of sign that the guy has no future.
If he's playing like this and has no future, I don't know what the same people could say about guys like Ryan, Flacco, Stafford, or Manning. Oh no, I do. They'd say they had plenty of room to grow. And it would be all because they were told so by high draft position and draft experts.
Russell Wilson, and the polarizing debate he brings with him, is a fascinating case study of fan expectations/opinions/idealogy and the impact perceived draft status/expert opinions/"conventional wisdom" play with shaping many's opinions and what they see.
I'll say it again. If Wilson was drafted #8 overall, and 6'4", his current level of play would be held up against rookie performances like the ones on this chart with pride and optimism that he will only get better. But no, he's a 3rd round pick, and sub-6 ft. So he's guilty until proven innocent. And in some people's eyes, has to play perfectly to do so.