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 Post subject: Schedule: the rest of the way
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2012 12:29 pm 
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Date_________Opponent____________prediction_________Chance of victory
Sun., Oct. 14 vs. New England _______L _____________40%
Thurs., Oct. 18 at San Francisco _______L______________35%
Sun., Oct. 28 at Detroit______________W _____________ 55%
Sun., Nov. 4 vs. Minnesota___________W _____________60%
Sun., Nov. 11 vs. New York Jets________W______________85%
Sun., Nov. 25 at Miami _______________W _____________60%
Sun., Dec. 2 at Chicago______________L ______________40%
Sun., Dec. 9 vs. Arizona _____________W______________65%
Sun., Dec. 16 at Buffalo (in Toronto) ____W______________60%
Sun., Dec. 23 vs. San Francisco________W______________55%
Sun., Dec. 30 vs. St. Louis____________W______________70%

11-5

What are your predictions and chance of victory opinions?

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Last edited by lukerguy on Mon Oct 08, 2012 12:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Schedule: the rest of the way
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2012 12:32 pm 
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I hate to ask, but are these percents randomly pulled out of the air?

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 Post subject: Re: Schedule: the rest of the way
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2012 12:34 pm 
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Looks good but I think we drop one, possibly to Minnesota or Miami and I think we beat NE this Sunday. So 11-5,10-6


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 Post subject: Re: Schedule: the rest of the way
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2012 12:35 pm 
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Seems a bit arbitrary.

I think we'll win 10 games, +/- 1 game.

Not sure who we'll beat or lose to to get there.

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 Post subject: Re: Schedule: the rest of the way
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2012 12:35 pm 
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I've thought 4-4 at the halfway point would be good from the beginning. I think we'll be there, but realistically it would be hard to go 8-0 or 7-1 the 2nd half. I think we end up 10-6, but thanks to earlier selective losses we NEED to win the remaining 4 division games, if not all remaining NFC opponent games to end up in the playoffs IMO. NFC is strong this year.

10-6


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 Post subject: Re: Schedule: the rest of the way
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2012 12:36 pm 
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Pretty good predictions. I would have to agree that 10-6 or 11-5 are the most likely outcomes. We really need to get to 11 wins to ensure we make it in the playoffs....

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 Post subject: Re: Schedule: the rest of the way
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2012 12:40 pm 
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Sarlacc83 wrote:
I hate to ask, but are these percents randomly pulled out of the air?


Are you asking if I'm a Psychic? No, I am not a Psychic.

This is just my analysis of our team, vs. how the remaining teams on our schedule have played. I could see us beating a team like NE at home, and then losing to Det. on the road..However, I think the chance of prediction is a nice addition. Most of them are between 40-65%, so I would say we're in for a bunch of tight game.

I wouldn't have thought this at the beginning of the year, but I definitely think that our easiest game on the schedule remaining is against the Jets.

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 Post subject: Re: Schedule: the rest of the way
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2012 1:19 pm 
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Sarlacc83 wrote:
I hate to ask, but are these percents randomly pulled out of the air?


No, he called Ms. Chloe from her jail cell and she gave him all the predictions.

And you accused me of worthless posts in the past?!?


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 Post subject: Re: Schedule: the rest of the way
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2012 1:24 pm 
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falcongoggles wrote:
Sarlacc83 wrote:
I hate to ask, but are these percents randomly pulled out of the air?


No, he called Ms. Chloe from her jail cell and she gave him all the predictions.

And you accused me of worthless posts in the past?!?


No, you asked why people in the PWR forum thought you were a troll. I enlightened you. I thought that was obvious. Appears not.

Also, I enjoy when people randomly create statistics and then frame in a context which could be taken as meaningful fact. (As in, the percents are why I think the Seahawks will win/lose.) And yes I read the opinions section at the bottom.

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 Post subject: Re: Schedule: the rest of the way
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2012 1:29 pm 
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Sarlacc83 wrote:
falcongoggles wrote:
Sarlacc83 wrote:
I hate to ask, but are these percents randomly pulled out of the air?


No, he called Ms. Chloe from her jail cell and she gave him all the predictions.

And you accused me of worthless posts in the past?!?


No, you asked why people in the PWR forum thought you were a troll. I enlightened you. I thought that was obvious. Appears not.

Also, I enjoy when people randomly create statistics and then frame in a context which could be taken as meaningful fact. (As in, the percents are why I think the Seahawks will win/lose.) And yes I read the opinions section at the bottom.


Was that the tingle I felt in my sack, you enlightening me? If so, I thank you then sir.


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 Post subject: Re: Schedule: the rest of the way
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2012 1:30 pm 
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falcongoggles wrote:
Sarlacc83 wrote:
falcongoggles wrote:
No, he called Ms. Chloe from her jail cell and she gave him all the predictions.

And you accused me of worthless posts in the past?!?


No, you asked why people in the PWR forum thought you were a troll. I enlightened you. I thought that was obvious. Appears not.

Also, I enjoy when people randomly create statistics and then frame in a context which could be taken as meaningful fact. (As in, the percents are why I think the Seahawks will win/lose.) And yes I read the opinions section at the bottom.


Was that the tingle I felt in my sack, you enlightening me? If so, I thank you then sir.


You really should just agree with me here.

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 Post subject: Re: Schedule: the rest of the way
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2012 1:32 pm 
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Sarlacc83 wrote:

You really should just agree with me here.


I agree, you win. :0190l: :thirishdrinkers:


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 Post subject: Re: Schedule: the rest of the way
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2012 2:04 pm 
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Well I congratulate you on your optimism


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 Post subject: Re: Schedule: the rest of the way
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2012 2:13 pm 
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Fun thread (and overall) I like both your picks and percentages. So much can happen between 'now and then' but IF we split with SF, I will be more than surprized. Harbaugh has really brought confidence to the team, Smith in particular. SF fans are livin' the best of both worlds now. Singletary implemented a culture of discipline and hard nosed football and Harbaugh has the luxury of playing good cop with Mike's team. They're gonna' be tough to beat and (unfortunately) likely to represent the NFC in the SB. There is always the possibility that they may be so *far out in front that they rest some key players against our tenacious D.

* I do realise the entirety of our division is neck and neck at this time, but I think that will change as the season progresses. IE: How long will Kolb be this version of Kolb? Will Fitzgerald (ever) drop a pass? How long before Bradford and/or Jackson gets hurt? How many games will Okung play and will we eventually start scoring offensive TDs?

Anyway, thanks for creating this thread and I think 10 wins is a realistic goal for this (young) 2012 team.


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 Post subject: Re: Schedule: the rest of the way
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2012 2:17 pm 
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Here's my predictions.

NEW ENGLAND - LOSS - The Patriots offense is on fire. They have no deep threat but are incredible with the underneath passes which is our weakest pass defense. Unless our LB core has an incredible game we won't be able to score enough points. 17-28

@SAN FRANCISCO - WIN - The 49ers will come into this game after beating NYG on the road and play it soft. Our run defense will stop the run forcing Alex Smith to throw. Although I see two Vernon Davis TDs and a few Akers FGs, I think the Hawks pull this one out. 24-20

@DETROIT - WIN - Detroit has a terrible defense and a lame rushing attack. We shut down Megatron and win this one easily. 31-10

MINNESOTA - LOSS - This to me is a toss up and I don't want to predict a loss on the road. I think both teams simply pound it out and it comes down to a last second field goal. 9-10.

NY JETS - WIN - Jets are awful. We rebound at home. 21-9

@MIAMI - WIN - Miami looks ok, but I think we matchup incredibly with them. This game looks like the Carolina game except I expect our defense to score more than our offense. 24-17

@CHICAGO - LOSS - A few ST scores and the blowout is on early. Two road games and a serious defense. We'll look to refocus after this game. 19-34

ARIZONA - WIN - Pay back. 31-6

@BUFFALO (TORONTO) - WIN - Fitzpatrick looks good in the first half but both sides of the ball show up in the second half for the Hawks and rally to win 21-14

SAN FRANCISCO - WIN - SF is mad and this is probably the best game of the year. Unlikely shootout. 28-27

ST LOUIS - WIN - Let's get ready for the playoffs and try to win the division (we don't). Great year, let's go to the WC round! 21-3

Final 11-5.

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 Post subject: Re: Schedule: the rest of the way
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2012 2:25 pm 
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If we play the way we just did, I think that's a pretty realistic prediction. How I see it:

Should beat: DET, MIN (home), NYJ, MIA, ARI (home), BUF, STL (home). The ones I marked home would be "could win" if they were on the road, but at the Clink we should be the better team.

Great chance if we play mistake free ball: NE, CHI, SF (home). We've played CHI enough over the past five years that we should know how to gameplan for them, and I think we match up well. I really don't believe they're the better team, but playing on the road makes this tough.

Constant hand wringing: SF (away). Our toughest challenge of the season, IMO. We can't beat them playing the way we have so far. But remove the penalties, and if our offense executes the way it did against Carolina we've got a solid shot. We will absolutely need those chunk plays to count in this game, though.

Edit: The real thing I wanted to say is that, just looking at the "should win" games, that puts us at 10 wins. That would make us strong playoff contenders. In fact, given the apparent equality of the NFCE and NFCN, 10 wins should make us playoff favorites because those guys might very well struggle for 9 wins.


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 Post subject: Re: Schedule: the rest of the way
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2012 2:41 pm 
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I am 80% certain the Hawks will win 100% of the remaining 68% of their games. Take that to the bank.


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 Post subject: Re: Schedule: the rest of the way
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2012 2:43 pm 
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I think we have a way better chance of beating NE at home than SF on the road.

I believe in the power of the CLink.

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 Post subject: Re: Schedule: the rest of the way
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2012 3:51 pm 
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SonicHawk wrote:

@SAN FRANCISCO - WIN - The 49ers will come into this game after beating NYG on the road and play it soft. Our run defense will stop the run forcing Alex Smith to throw. Although I see two Vernon Davis TDs and a few Akers FGs, I think the Hawks pull this one out. 24-20



.



The Niners have the Giants at home, FYI.

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 Post subject: Re: Schedule: the rest of the way
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2012 3:54 pm 
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9-7 is most realistic, 10-6 is not unlikely and 11-5 if everything falls into place the rest of the way.

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 Post subject: Re: Schedule: the rest of the way
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2012 3:59 pm 
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Looking back to last year and the first 5 this year, this team is in every game. I do believe this year's team is good enough to contend with every team on our schedule - the way the ball bounces could cause a little variance but at the end of the day there will be a lot of losses in this list if the consistency and clarity of play does not improve. No more stupid penalties and finishing plays and games on offense/defense has to be the theme as they trudge through. Realistically I think we have a real shot at 12 wins or even more - but this is the NFL. The better we get, the harder our opponents will play. The question is how many wins does it take to make the post season - usually 10 is a good goal - which means can we get to 11? It's going to take some luck but I'm pretty sure they can do it.

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 Post subject: Re: Schedule: the rest of the way
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2012 4:01 pm 
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vs New England - Loss
at San Francisco - Loss
at Detroit - Win
vs Minnesota - Loss
vs New York Jets - Win
at Miami - Win
at Chicago - Loss
vs Arizona - Win
at Buffalo - Win
vs San Francisco - Loss
St. Louis - Win

For a final record of 9-7.


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 Post subject: Re: Schedule: the rest of the way
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2012 4:50 pm 
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i say we will be lucky to get to 10-6 with the way this offense is playing.
that st louis loss hurts

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 Post subject: Re: Schedule: the rest of the way
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2012 5:55 pm 
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vs New England - Win
at San Francisco - Loss
at Detroit - Win
vs Minnesota - Win
vs New York Jets - Win
at Miami - Win
at Chicago - Win
vs Arizona - Win
at Buffalo - Win
vs San Francisco - Win
St. Louis - Win

You can call me optimistic!

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 Post subject: Re: Schedule: the rest of the way
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2012 9:39 pm 
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I think you are too optimistic on the Jets and Rams home games. Also, the percentages you have listed do not really add up to 11-5.

Here is what your percentages look like in a simple simulation with no mutations.

Image

Your mean is clearly on the edge between 9-7 and 10-6. Of course, in reality the distribution is quite a bit flatter than this due to the possibility of events occurring that change all of your future projections (key injuries as a downside, stellar play as an upside).

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 Post subject: Re: Schedule: the rest of the way
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2012 11:30 pm 
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AgentDib wrote:
I think you are too optimistic on the Jets and Rams home games. Also, the percentages you have listed do not really add up to 11-5.

Here is what your percentages look like in a simple simulation with no mutations.

Image

Your mean is clearly on the edge between 9-7 and 10-6. Of course, in reality the distribution is quite a bit flatter than this due to the possibility of events occurring that change all of your future projections (key injuries as a downside, stellar play as an upside).


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