NFC Playoff Scenarios [Week 15]

Polaris

Active member
Joined
Oct 8, 2013
Messages
2,206
Reaction score
0
Hello Everyone,

Nothing says it's the holidays quite like seeing the Minnesota Vikings being trod into the turf of Century Link Field by a relentless swarm of radioactive army ants. At least that's how it seemed to me before garbage time. In other news, we have the new playoff scenarios for week 15 and thinks are looking very well indeed. As always I will discuss the NFC scenarios here and discuss the corresponding AFC scenarios in a companion article in the NFL general forums under AFC Playoff Scenarios [Week 15]. As before, I will use the following symbols:
*--Home Field Advantage
z--First Round Bye
y--Division Winner
x--Playoff Spot
(e)--Eliminated
As before I will sometimes follow such a symbol with a number to reflect a specific seed if applicable. With all that said, let's dig in.

NFC East
The Cowboys after their win in week 14 and the Redskins loss look to be firmly in control of this division and are on the verge of clinching it. The Redskins lacking a competent quarterback look to be rapidly fading and the Eagles face a challenging closing schedule that probably will keep them out of the playoffs. The NY Giants are playing their best football of the year right now, but too little and far too late.

Name Record Conf. Div. Last Three
Cowboys 8-5 7-3 4-1 @Indy, Tampa, @NY Giants
Eagles 6-7 4-6 3-2 @LA Rams, Houston, @Washington
Washington 6-7 6-5 2-3 @Jacksonville, @Tenn, Eagles
NY Giants 5-8 4-7 1-4 Tenn, @Indy, Cowboys

Clinching Scenarios: The Cowboys are on the verge of clinching the NFC East. The Cowboys will with a WIN *OR* a Philly + Washington Loss. Why? Dallas holds the tiebreaker both against Philadelphia (head to head) AND Washington (Division) no matter what. A ninth win by Dallas puts them out of reach then of both the Eagles and Washington. Likewise an extra loss by Philadelphia and Washington puts them too far back.

Elimination Scenarios: The NY Giants are already eliminated from the NFC East title because of division record vis a vis the Cowboys. The Eagles are eliminated from the NFC East title with a loss or Cowboy win. The same goes for Washington (see above). The NY Giants are eliminated from the playoffs with a LOSS and a Vikings win because the Giants would have nine losses and thus at most 7 wins and the Vikings would have 7.5 as the lowest playoff team thanks to their tie (remember ties count as half a win). The same logic applies to any nine loss team in week 15.

NFC South
As expected New Orleans as clinched this division and likely is well on her way to a first round bye at the very least. Contrary to expectations earlier this season, however, it's looking more and more likely that New Orleans will be the only team that makes the playoffs from the NFC South.

Name Record Conf. Div. Last Three
Saints-y 11-2 8-2 3-1 @Carolina, Pittsburgh, Carolina
Carolina 6-7 4-5 1-2 New Orleans, Atlanta, @New Orleans
Tampa 5-8 4-6 2-3 @Baltimore, @Dallas, Atlanta
Atlanta 4-9 4-5 2-2 Arizona, @Carolina, @Tampa

Clinching Scenario: The Saints can clinch a first round bye with a win AND a Chicago loss. There are no other clinching scenarios in the NFC South.

Elimination Scenarios: Atlanta is eliminated with either a loss OR a Vikings win (see NY Giants). Tampa Bay is eliminated with a loss AND a Vikings win (see NY Giants). Carolina can't quite be eliminated from the playoffs but can be eliminated from the #5 seed with a Seattle win or a loss.

NFC North
With the Vikings loss on Monday Night Football, it looks like the Chicago Bears pretty much have wrapped up this division and can clinch it this week. Nice to know that the Bears were rooting for Seattle almost as much as we were :) Detroit and the once mighty Packers are facing imminent elimination. The Vikings hold the inside track to hold the final wildcard spot, but only just (by literally half a game thanks to an early season tie).

Name Record Conf. Div. Last Three
Chicago 9-4 7-2 3-1 Green Bay, @San Francisco, @Minnesota
Minnesota 6-6-1 5-4-1 2-1-1 Miami, @Detroit, Chicago
Green Bay 5-7-1 3-6-1 1-2-1 @Chicago, @NY Jets, Detroit
Detroit 5-8 3-7 1-3 @Buffalo, Minnesota, @Green Bay

Clinching Scenario: Chicago will clinch the NFC North with a WIN *OR* a Vikings loss or tie.

Elimination Scenarios: Green Bay and Detroit are already eliminated from the NFC North. Minnesota is eliminated from the NFC North with a loss or a Chicago win (see above). Detroit is eliminated from the playoffs with a loss AND a Vikings win. Green Bay is also eliminated from the playoffs with a loss AND a Vikings win. The same applies to Green Bay because they lose out to the Vikings head to head.

NFC West
The LA Rams have dominated the NFC West this year but seem to be stumbling a bit down the stretch (to be fair the New Orleans Saints seem to have the same issue). Nevertheless they are on the verge of clinching a first round bye and fighting the Saints for home field. Seattle is on the verge of clinching at least a wildcard spot and has the strong inside shot for the #5 seed with real separation both in record and tiebreaks with other would be playoff teams. Both Arizona and San Francisco are reduced to spoiler roles while playing for 2019.

Name Record Conf. Div. Last Three
LA Rams-y 11-2 7-2 4-0 Philadelphia, @Arizona, San Francisco
Seattle 8-5 7-3 2-2 @San Francisco, Kansas City, Arizona
Arizona (e) 3-10 3-6 2-2 @Atlanta, LA Rams, @Seattle
Niners (e) 3-10 1-8 0-4 Seattle, Chicago, @LA Rams

Clinching Scenarios: The LA Rams can clinch a first round bye with a win AND a Chicago loss. Seattle can clinch a playoff spot with the following: Correction: On further review, Seattle's tiebreaks are even better than I thought. Here are the modified scenarios for Seattle.

Seattle can clinch the #5 seed with:

A Seattle win AND Vikings Loss. That is because we beat Carolina and Philadelphia and Washington play each other. That leaves at worst three teams tied at 9-7 (Seattle, Eagles/Washington, Carolina). Seattle wins the first potential three way tiebreak giving Seattle the guaranteed #5 seed.

Seattle can clinch a playoff spot period with:

1) A Seattle win.

2) Three of the following four teams lose: Washington, Eagles, Carolina, Vikings, or Packers (or tie in case of Packers) Again, because of Seattle's superior tiebreaks, this would eliminate those that could beat Seattle in overall record.

There may be others but these are the ones I have found.

The upshot is that if Seattle wins next week, a playoff spot is almost assured no matter what (mathematically the worst possible seed is #7 in such a case), and even as things stand Seattle's position is very good. Correction: If Seattle wins, she's in.

Who to root for?

1. Per usual, always, always, always root for Seattle. This is even more important in week 15 because it's very easy to clinch at least a playoff spot starting this week if we keep winning.

2. As much as it cuts against the grain, we want to root for the LA Rams this week because this will give the Eagles a loss, and that not only helps Seattle's playoff picture but also makes it more likely we face the Cowboys.

3. We probably should root for Jacksonville to give Washington another loss and thus remove them from the competition as well.

4. We also probably want to root for Miami since that will give the Vikings a loss.

5. Just to be safe, we probably want to root for the Saints to give the Panthers yet another loss.

*whew* I hope this is useful to everyone.
 

Ad Hawk

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 6, 2011
Messages
3,185
Reaction score
403
The logic and multiple scenarios you display for us is undeniable.

Thanks again, Polaris.
 
OP
OP
P

Polaris

Active member
Joined
Oct 8, 2013
Messages
2,206
Reaction score
0
KitsapGuy":x32yfzol said:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/gbellseattle/status/1072378726816628741[/tweet]

Absolutely correct. Even with just one win, Seattle can clinch a playoff spot with two weeks to go (which is almost unheard of for a team not in contention for the division). One more (10) makes it mathematically impossible not to get the five seed.
 
Top