Gonna be that hater and splash some statistical cold water on things. :lol:
(1) Turnover differential, as much or more than any stat in the NFL, ends up regressing toward the mean over time. What this means is that on average the teams with the best and worst turnover differentials each year end up at around 0 (the mean for a differential) the following year. For small sample sizes like a quarter of a season we'd expect a similar regression to the mean.
(2) Likewise, statistically red zone offense just ends up being a fairly noisy (due to small sample size) alternative measurement of overall offensive ability -- over time red zone offense regresses to the per-team mean of overall offensive performance. What this means is that team with great offensive performance outside the 20s and bad offensive performance in the red zone doesn't really have anything to worry about -- it's just a small sample size and over time they're red zone performance will normalize. The same is true with a bad offense with great red zone performance -- their red zone performance will decrease over time because the offense isn't good.
As for #2 I'm NOT saying the Seahawks have a "good" or a "bad" offense this year (we don't have enough games to know that yet AT ALL), but fans shouldn't pin their hopes on turnover differential or red zone performance, as these are both NOTORIOUSLY unstable statistics over time.
:2thumbs:
