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Summer talk : 2018 offense' potential and issues

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  • Somehow our poor offense may have to find a way to carry our defense which suffered more lost of stars than offense. I felt like if we could score an additional 3 points per game, we could achieve that goal.

    http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/total

    Let's start with 2017:
    #15 in yds/game: 330.4 (so insulting that we were behind the 9ers - 349.3 #12)
    #14 in passing yds/game: 228.6 (again humbled by 9ers - 245.3 #9)
    #23 in rushing yds/game: 101.8 ( humbled pies galore 9ers - 104, #21)
    #11 in points/game: 22.9 (eat your hearts out 9ers, 20.7 #20)

    I am hoping that we could be top 10 in the league, that would mean:
    #12 in yds/game ~~~ 349.3 9ers or we need to gain an additional 18.9 yards per game.
    #10 in passing ~~~ 239.4 Rams or we need to gain an additional 10.8 yards per game.
    #16/17 in rushing ~~~ 109.9 Packers were #17 at 107.8, Bears #16 at 111.8, or we need an additional 10 yards per game.
    #8 in points/game ~~~ 25.4 Steelers or we need to score an additional 2.5 points per game.

    Potentials:
    Two stars: Wilson and Baldwin.
    A potential game changer: Penny
    A great change of pace back: Prosise
    OL: 2 pro bowlers, 1 all-rookie, a RG ranked #17 in run blocking.
    All in all, we have 4 pro bowlers starting on our offense, that is 4 out of 11 folks. I believe that's more than the Rams.

    Worries:
    Shotty didn't really have an inspirational resume.
    How much can Solari do to improve our OL with 4 returning starters?
    RT Ifedi has been our problem child, can he improve? If not, is Fant ready?
    All rookie or not, Pocic was statistically our worst lineman, can he improve enough to be average?
    Can Lockett pick up where Richardson left off? I think he could, remember Richardson was a Lockett replacement when Lockett suffered his injury?
    Who will be our tall receiver/TE? Unthinkable, but Darboh, Marshall and McEvoy may be key to our scoring.
    How much gas does SeaBass still have in his tank? We haven't seen him so far, back still hurt???
    Can we gain an additional 10 yards in rushing per game???? By RBs, not Wilson leading our rushing yardage.

    Can we score an additional 2.5 points per game

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  • toffee wrote:Somehow our poor offense may have to find a way to carry our defense which suffered more lost of stars than offense. I felt like if we could score an additional 3 points per game, we could achieve that goal.

    http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/total

    Let's start with 2017:
    #15 in yds/game: 330.4 (so insulting that we were behind the 9ers - 349.3 #12)
    #14 in passing yds/game: 228.6 (again humbled by 9ers - 245.3 #9)
    #23 in rushing yds/game: 101.8 ( humbled pies galore 9ers - 104, #21)
    #11 in points/game: 22.9 (eat your hearts out 9ers, 20.7 #20)

    I am hoping that we could be top 10 in the league, that would mean:
    #12 in yds/game ~~~ 349.3 9ers or we need to gain an additional 18.9 yards per game.
    #10 in passing ~~~ 239.4 Rams or we need to gain an additional 10.8 yards per game.
    #16/17 in rushing ~~~ 109.9 Packers were #17 at 107.8, Bears #16 at 111.8, or we need an additional 10 yards per game.
    #8 in points/game ~~~ 25.4 Steelers or we need to score an additional 2.5 points per game.

    Potentials:
    Two stars: Wilson and Baldwin.
    A potential game changer: Penny
    A great change of pace back: Prosise
    OL: 2 pro bowlers, 1 all-rookie, a RG ranked #17 in run blocking.
    All in all, we have 4 pro bowlers starting on our offense, that is 4 out of 11 folks. I believe that's more than the Rams.

    Worries:
    Shotty didn't really have an inspirational resume.
    How much can Solari do to improve our OL with 4 returning starters?
    RT Ifedi has been our problem child, can he improve? If not, is Fant ready?
    All rookie or not, Pocic was statistically our worst lineman, can he improve enough to be average?
    Can Lockett pick up where Richardson left off? I think he could, remember Richardson was a Lockett replacement when Lockett suffered his injury?
    Who will be our tall receiver/TE? Unthinkable, but Darboh, Marshall and McEvoy may be key to our scoring.
    How much gas does SeaBass still have in his tank? We haven't seen him so far, back still hurt???
    Can we gain an additional 10 yards in rushing per game???? By RBs, not Wilson leading our rushing yardage.

    Can we score an additional 2.5 points per game


    It all comes down to 2 things

    Oline
    play call/design

    If we cant get some run game not named Wilson and protect Wilson nothing will happen
    If we try a run at all cost or an offense not suited for who we have we are in trouble.

    We will see, it is very possible we can do it, ie 2nd half 2015, it just depends
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  • This is my biggest concern, can the offense be successful running the ball again in order to keep a rebuilding defense off the field as much as possible.

    With Solari, Penny and Russell I do think it's possible, which would keep us in games and hopefully in the playoff hunt.

    If not? Then I'm scared as hell that this is a really bad team..................cause this defense as it stands is going to struggle, especially at the D-line level, and won't be able to win games like they used to while the offense figures it out.
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  • Statistically, it’s all down to if we could rush an extra 10 yards per game and score 2.5 more points.

    I am very optimistic about the above. We sure have better RBs and a new RG that has been a run block specialists. If that’s not enough, the OL and RB WILL get help from TE (so f u Jimmy Graham).

    Focusing on ‘17 vs ‘18:

    OL is more matured, unless Pocic and Ifedi regress , and they shall get blocking help from our new TE (f u again Jimmy Graham) Brown didn’t have an off-season and camp last season, he spent this off season with our youngsters under Solaris. I am sticking my neck out to announce that our OL will be way way this year.

    Our RBs are better in ‘18! Remember this time last year we were focusing on Laci’s diet? Penny/Carson/Prosise way better than Lace/Rawls/Carson.

    Our WR may not suffer at all, Baldwin is still Baldwin, a healthy Lockett was as good if not better than Richardson IMHO. We did lost a tall receiver in Graham, but Jimmy only switched it on when he can add TD to his stat line. He wasn’t good when TD wasn’t in the picture.

    If Marshall or one of our young tall WRs can have a good years. This offense can dominate and bail out our rebuilding defense. You hear it here first.


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  • Good thread, toffee! Just gonna add some drive stats for 2017

    Yards/Drive: 27.36 (22nd)
    Points/Drive: 1.76 (20th)
    Plays/Drive: 5.48 (28th)
    ToP/Drive: 2:30 (29th)
    3 and outs/Drive: 0.294 (29th)

    Drive Success Rate: 0.667 (20th)
    Offensive DVOA: 14th

    This goes along with what many have been saying about the offense not staying on the field long enough. Ball controlling, we were not in 2017. I glanced at the 2015 stats and we were top 5 in every single one of those stats (except 3 and outs/drive, which I added later - we were 6th). We don't need to be that good, but some major improvement to fringe top 8-12 would be incredible helpful.
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  • adeltaY wrote:Good thread, toffee! Just gonna add some drive stats for 2017

    Yards/Drive: 27.36 (22nd)
    Points/Drive: 1.76 (20th)
    Plays/Drive: 5.48 (28th)
    ToP/Drive: 2:30 (29th)
    3 and outs/Drive: 0.294 (29th)

    Drive Success Rate: 0.667 (20th)
    Offensive DVOA: 14th

    This goes along with what many have been saying about the offense not staying on the field long enough. Ball controlling, we were not in 2017. I glanced at the 2015 stats and we were top 5 in every single one of those stats (except 3 and outs/drive, which I added later - we were 6th). We don't need to be that good, but some major improvement to fringe top 8-12 would be incredible helpful.


    With all those problems, we were #11 in scoring! That told me something about our potential. You should call me a homer, but I am not the only one.


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  • adeltaY wrote:Good thread, toffee! Just gonna add some drive stats for 2017

    Yards/Drive: 27.36 (22nd)
    Points/Drive: 1.76 (20th)
    Plays/Drive: 5.48 (28th)
    ToP/Drive: 2:30 (29th)
    3 and outs/Drive: 0.294 (29th)

    Drive Success Rate: 0.667 (20th)
    Offensive DVOA: 14th

    This goes along with what many have been saying about the offense not staying on the field long enough. Ball controlling, we were not in 2017. I glanced at the 2015 stats and we were top 5 in every single one of those stats (except 3 and outs/drive, which I added later - we were 6th). We don't need to be that good, but some major improvement to fringe top 8-12 would be incredible helpful.



    Good stuff, you know what would be really interesting to know, is how many drives stalled or were put in tough positions due to penalties. I am betting a lot. I am also betting Ifedi was the main culprit
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  • Yeah that's a really good point. I think there was a FG article midway through last season that found a huge percentage of our drives that sustained a penalty went nowhere. Leading the league in penalties was such a killer, if we even make to to 20th we will see a huge improvement.
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  • Beren wrote:https://mobile.twitter.com/SeahawksMachine/status/1020322858545893377

    Is this true?


    Could be, but he also had the number one rushing attack with Sanchez at qb, meaning the other teams knew they were going to run it. So, why don't we wait to see how this roster is going to shape out, and how he is going to use this personnel before we go jumping off the ledge. Every coordinator will have tells, do you think this defense has fooled anybody over the years? No, team's know exactly what they are going to do. I know it is more nuanced than that, but it is just one factor in many. These numbers guys think that their metric is the only one that matters, and they are never wrong cause, "look, the numbers match up." We don't even know how much of this offense will be of Schotty's design. Right now, he says around thirty percent is all. They are keeping the bulk of the offense intact. And if Schotty does end up designing the bulk of this offense, is it just going to be his recycled offenses of old? Or do you think potentially he could design a new offense around this unique set of players? People adapt, right past "wrongs." Too early to tell anything. If people want to give themselves ulcers over this, be my guest. I for one am excited.
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  • I'd that's true, I'm not sure how you can rationalise it as good. Why would you put more pressure on your players to execute at a high level every play instead of using misdirection to give them a schematic advantage. We don't exactly have Dallas' OL where they can just line up and beat you with the same set of plays all game. Same thing with the 2013 D - they were just better than everyone else. We have neither top tier offensive nor defensive players.

    Keep in mind those Jets teams where they ran for a ton of yards had elite defenses. Like #1 in the league in points allowed good. Run heavy teams typically need that level of D to be contenders.
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  • My thoughts:

    Schotty was an underwhelming hire. He is no boy wonder, think McVay; or offense genius, think Walsh.

    As far as predictability, think 3rd and long, it becomes predictable under that situation and it happens few times a game. In such predictable situations, a good team say still convert over 40% of those plays. Just because defense predict run or pass; it doesn’t mean they knew how you will run or pass. Ie the they knew you are coming but still couldn’t stop ya.

    I would bet that most OC with long history in NFL became somewhat predictable. When it comes predicting run or pass, This article said Schotty would be 70% predictable, I bet the most “unpredictable” OCs are still 60% predictable. Hey flipping a coin gives ya 50%.


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  • When they had Lynch, the plan was always to run the ball down their throats, even though they knew he was coming, then throw in the read option plays, screen passes and miss-direction plays and the defenses may not have the advantage that many are saying. If they are sure it's going to be a pure running play, that knowledge is a two edged sword, yes, they might catch the RB, but they could also overrun the play or be completely fooled by the read option type plays to their teams detriment.

    I'm not saying that our new RB, Rashaad Penny is a Lynch clone, right now, however it should be noted that he ran against a lot of stacked boxes at SDSU last year in a running offense with a poor QB & mostly Freshman OL. The other teams knew he was coming and couldn't stop him. It is my dearest hope that he can convert his acumen to the NFL game.

    I think the preseason games will go a long way in showing that they indeed will have a much improved running game as well as a vastly improved special teams unit & return game. Lull other teams to sleep with a consistent running game and then wham, quick strike TD from RW's arm, I'll take that along with an improved field position and improved time of possession game. One bold prediction: Penny will EXCEL in the return game this season as well as becoming the starter at the RB position (with strong relief from Carson.) PC/JS structured their draft around improving the running game and IMO, they did that really well and the Seahawks will surprise a lot of folks who are currently dogging them.
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  • adeltaY wrote:I'd that's true, I'm not sure how you can rationalise it as good. Why would you put more pressure on your players to execute at a high level every play instead of using misdirection to give them a schematic advantage. We don't exactly have Dallas' OL where they can just line up and beat you with the same set of plays all game. Same thing with the 2013 D - they were just better than everyone else. We have neither top tier offensive nor defensive players.

    Keep in mind those Jets teams where they ran for a ton of yards had elite defenses. Like #1 in the league in points allowed good. Run heavy teams typically need that level of D to be contenders.



    Post after post your saying our defense is a problem, our Coach is a defensive coach that built the LOB.

    DE We have three former number 1 picks that we rehabbed or brought in with Dion Jordan,Marcus Smith II, Barkevious Mingo and actually looked good in small amounts of play last year and or looks to be a good fit for how we use them in our system and are ready for the show again, we have Branden Jackson who also flashed, then brought in two rookies in Jacob Martin, Rasheem Green to push , That does not even include Frank Clark, add Griff 2.0 as a situational in the dirt guy and we have a lot of DE possibilities.

    DT we have Jones, Reed, Jefferson and I hope he is back healthy as well as two guys from Minny in Shamar Stephen, Tom Johnson who are proven players in a good defense, Poona Ford and Eddy Wilson are pushing these guys or there if we have a fall out for any reason, Ford looks to have potential, now if McDowell could shit or get off the pot we would have a pretty good over all group there also.



    CB, lets start with the givens, Griff 1.0 and Maxwell and Coleman are all guys that started last year in RC, LC, and Slot,
    we did ok with them so everything is up from that point, we have depth in the wings trying to take away at least one spot in Maxwells position I think if I am a coach and challange Coleman.


    Let talk Vets brought in and I mean seasoned Vets, Dontae Johnson, Neiko Thorpe, these guys are here just in case, Thorpe also is great on special teams but may price himself out. Then we have guys the Coaches have in the wings or had on the PS or IR that they hope would step up that they really like, Akeem King, DeAndre Elliott, Mike Tyson, that leaves our Safety to CB conversion project Tre Flowers.

    Again the pantry is not bare, just different and we have guys that have played before and know the speed of the game.


    Safety is the last spot everyone is worried about, Earl I still think may be moved, he however is participating in off season drills as we have seen in photos regardless of the tweets, but just in case we have McDougald that could step in if needed and not lose a lot, we also have Alex Carter who has played, he would also be a player that is more familiar with CB but with how we play the secondary could be a guy that could play Center Filed for us, they liked him enough to sign him off back after getting claimed by the Bears and we will see, Tedric Thompson is our red shirt guy that this is a prove it year for him, Flowers is also a Safety that if they have to could move there, then we have if Earl leaves a shuffle going on, at worst Mc Dougald slides in and we back fill the SS position, but were set there also.


    We at SS knowing Kam is done have Mc Dougald, Maurice Alexander a previous starter that may be more soutied to our scheme then what the Rams were trying to do with him, and again our Red Shirt carry over who needs to show he has stepped up in Delano Hill.

    LB is pretty set and I think is fine with Wright, Wagner, Mingo and or Griff 2.0 and or Smith, Alexander and then a bunch of Rookies and or guys working on breaking out, Austin Calitro, Joshua Perry, Warren Long, Emmanuel Beal,
    Jake Pugh.

    Just becasue we don't know their names or seen them on ESPN does not mean we don't have things working on defense, many Coaches want to take a 1968 Caddy and try to make them Rally Cars, Pete tends to say if they are a Caddy they can play DT and Leo, I will grab the 1968 Camaro and let that player run a Rally course.


    Pete plays guys where their strengths are showcased and their weaknesses are covered as much as possible and adjusts for that. I think our defense will be fine, we have pieces in place just not evidence yet of how they will all work together.


    So getting back to the offense, a great defense is great when they can play down hill and dictate what they will allow a offense to do, when your defense is fresh you can do that, when your playing with a lead you can do that.


    If Solari and Schotty can run and score early our defense will not be tired, they with a league can set up and take chances and go after balls for turnovers more without the worry of one score possibly being the entire game.


    The big thing I think will be telling is if Marshall is able to start, big target, big play guy that will give us the ability to keep a defense honest and open up every thing else, with Baldwin and Marshall if healthy a defense can't cheat up, throw in Lockett or Brown or Moore in fact as a speed threat deep and the whole field is spread. Dissly, Vannett and Dickson, Swoopes or who ever is the third guy could really benefit as well with the seam and late release in the flat.


    These are all things that Bevell hestatated to use and do for some reason, that doesn't even bring up RB screens and late dumps in a flat clearing pattern or naked screens after the area is cleared.


    Again our biggest issue is how fast we can make our O line average and functional for the run to keep a defense from just pinning thier ears back and getting after Wilson. Give us 1 to 2 seconds of reaction time where the defense has to look, read, and react our offense will be tons better.
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  • chris98251 wrote:Post after post your saying our defense is a problem, our Coach is a defensive coach that built the LOB.


    I knew you all call toffee a homer, but I knew I ain't the only one.

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  • I'm sorry but the talent level is not in the same stratosphere as the 2013 D. Appreciate the effort you made in your post, but the DL is paper thin, the CBs are decent, S is a question mark, and LB is top tier. We competed for SBs with a legitimately legendary defense. I have full faith in PC to build another top 10 defense and maybe top 5 the next season. Recreating a historic defense? Not so much.

    Do you really see any youngster for whom you are genuinely as excited as you were for young Kam, Earl, and Sherm? I like Frank a lot and actually Coleman as well. I don't see any other all pro potential guys besides guys we know are that good like Earl, Bobby, and KJ. When Sherm took the field in 2011 I'm pretty sure all our fans knew he was a beast in the making. I'm hoping someone pops off this year but I don't see it YET
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  • adeltaY wrote:I'm sorry but the talent level is not in the same stratosphere as the 2013 D. Appreciate the effort you made in your post, but the DL is paper thin, the CBs are decent, S is a question mark, and LB is top tier. We competed for SBs with a legitimately legendary defense. I have full faith in PC to build another top 10 defense and maybe top 5 the next season. Recreating a historic defense? Not so much.

    Do you really see any youngster for whom you are genuinely as excited as you were for young Kam, Earl, and Sherm? I like Frank a lot and actually Coleman as well. I don't see any other all pro potential guys besides guys we know are that good like Earl, Bobby, and KJ. When Sherm took the field in 2011 I'm pretty sure all our fans knew he was a beast in the making. I'm hoping someone pops off this year but I don't see it YET

    Be honest was anyone here excited to get a converted WR as a backup cornerback in the 5th round? Because I didn't know who the hell Sherman was, and I really don't think the rest of us did, either. Kam Chancellor was some guy we took instead of that blow-hard from USC we were supposed to take, and that's about all I knew of him. Earl Thomas came with a pedigree, but then he was a first-round pick.

    Realistically, a top-10 defense should do it for us, provided the offense improves on last season, and we have every reason to believe it will.

    I know we're worried about the line, but Bennett was a cast-off nobody and Avril was 2nd-tier at best when we got them. By using people where they are strong, Carroll has a tendency to get more out of players. It's a synergy thing where the whole is more than the sum of its parts, which in turn makes the parts look better.
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  • adeltaY wrote:I'm sorry but the talent level is not in the same stratosphere as the 2013 D. Appreciate the effort you made in your post, but the DL is paper thin, the CBs are decent, S is a question mark, and LB is top tier. We competed for SBs with a legitimately legendary defense. I have full faith in PC to build another top 10 defense and maybe top 5 the next season. Recreating a historic defense? Not so much.

    Do you really see any youngster for whom you are genuinely as excited as you were for young Kam, Earl, and Sherm? I like Frank a lot and actually Coleman as well. I don't see any other all pro potential guys besides guys we know are that good like Earl, Bobby, and KJ. When Sherm took the field in 2011 I'm pretty sure all our fans knew he was a beast in the making. I'm hoping someone pops off this year but I don't see it YET


    Nobody knew who Sherm and Kam were. Kam was just known as a hitter that was deemed slow and to aggressive and had issues in pass protection, Sherm was a conversion project.


    In fact Wags was considered too light to be a MLB as well and just a speed guy, they had him figured as a OLB.


    Then you have Browner a wash out in the NFL who played in the CFL and could not cover deep and didn't have elite speed.



    Thats the initial take on the LOB and our defense, lest we forget the experts also had us cutting Red Bryant as a bust, then Pete moved him to Leo.

    Of don't forget Chris Clemons, a who the hell is that pick up from the Eagles as we got rid of Jackson and Tapp.


    That was our initial incarnation of the derfense by the experts and what many of us had to go off of till we seen it assembled where Pete used thier strenghs to make them a once in a generation defense.


    I listed the above as components of a defense that we have that others have discounted, I think again we have assembled a cast of characters that are going to be put in a position to succeed and accentuate what they do best.
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  • I agree, Kiwi, that Richard Sherman coming out of the draft wasn't on most peoples' radar. I'm talking about the end of the 2011 season when he started playing - he was a little rough around the edges, but you saw flashes of greatness and he lived up to that with a fantastic 2012 season. Kam was coming on strong around then as well and had been starting all year and we definitely saw flashes from him - the hit where he annihilated Hardesty stands out to me.

    I don't buy the belief that Avril and Bennett were nobodies from a talent perspective. I get why you think that - they were bargain signings, but I think that's because of the DE market at the time and smart GMing from JS. They had both proven themselves to at least be capable starters. Avril had 11 sacks in 2011 and 9.5 in 2012 before coming over here. I've heard the argument that Avril's production was seen as only due to Suh... if that's the case which Bucs edge rusher has had 11+ sacks from playing with McCoy (closest was one Michael Bennett with 9 in 2012)? Which Rams edge rusher has benefited that much from Donald (Closest was Quinn in 2014 with 10.5)? Michael Johnson and Carlos Dunlap broke 11 sacks once each playing with Geno Atkins. It's not like there's a bunch of guys putting up 8-12+ sacks every year just because they play with a stud DT. Cameron Wake has put up great stats with Suh... and just as great stats before he came to Miami.

    What I'm saying is that the DL in 2013 was so good we didn't even use Mike B and Cliff - who were proven, reliable starters for their prior teams - as starters on our own team. Going into 2018, our only proven pass rusher is Frank Clark, a guy who many on this board don't even want to re-sign before he hits free agency (i think we should, btw, he's really good and should only get better). Our other guys are projects or unknowns and I have NOTHING against that! I hope they turn out to be studs, obviously; however, when it comes to objective evaluation of the team, it isn't right to assume those guys are going to pan out because most like them in the league do not.

    I believe we will do fine run-stuffing DT-wise because Carroll has consistently shown he can make do with that position. He has not, however, shown the ability to generate a good interior pass rush since 2014. In fact, since 2013, we haven't really had that stifling pass rush and it's really fallen off over the years, even when we had healthy Cliff and Mike B. Why would our current roster be even as good as, say, the 2016 pass rush? It could be, but it's unlikely.
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