2019 Compensatory Draft Picks Update (5/8/2018)

KitsapGuy · May 8, 2018

[tweet]https://twitter.com/nickkorte/status/993948363824361472[/tweet]

Seattle: Some regular comp pick seekers, like Green Bay and Denver, simply didn’t lose enough valuable CFAs to make it worth it to go after comp picks this year. But I’m having a hard time understanding how the Seahawks approached free agency this year. As I anticipated, the Seahawks lost high valued CFAs in Jimmy Graham, Sheldon Richardson, and Paul Richardson–all currently valued as 4th rounders. But Seattle instead signed 7 CFAs of their own, taking them way out of contention to earn any of those 4th rounders. Of those seven, they could cut four of them (Dontae Johnson, DJ Fluker, Tom Johnson, and Shamar Stephen) with little consequence, as all have guarantees at or below $1 million. But that’s not the case for the other three (Ed Dickson, Barkevious Mingo, and Jaron Brown). This year, it seems clear that John Schneider is taking an educated gamble that the CFAs he signed will be worth more than the 4th round comp picks he could have otherwise received via the Seahawks’ usual modus operandi in free agency.

jammerhawk · May 8, 2018

Reality was JS was too thin on signed players left on the roster going into FA and with no 2nd or 3rd round picks and no 6th going into the FA period he needed to sign the UFAs to make up for that. It appears his 1yr. contract signing binge proved to be a mistake, as was the trade for Richardson.

AgentDib · May 8, 2018

I was expecting us to try to keep those comp picks too. The takeaway here for me is that Pete is trying to win this year and the 2019 draft was a much lower priority. The UFAs we signed should be key contributors to 2018.

Jville · May 8, 2018

This is an unusual year. They are coming off a year that experienced a cluster of disappointments in multiple areas of the team. They don't have the luxury of shaping the roster with future compensatory picks in mind. This year's effort in talent acquisition necessitates a major reset.

chris98251 · May 8, 2018

Comp picks are nice but a bigger gamble then proven free agents with tape in the NFL.

original poster · May 8, 2018

I thought all along that Seattle would prioritise talent over comp picks, not surprised in the least.

mikeak · May 9, 2018

jammerhawk":2rt9vvo3 said:
. It appears his 1yr. contract signing binge proved to be a mistake, as was the trade for Richardson.

IMHO this NAILS it

I didn’t like all the one year signings last year but was told not to worry about it (by other)

I have come to realize that what probably happened is that we went all in last year KNOWING that 2018 would be the year we paid the price.

Now if you say I can win it all in 2017 and if I do things will figure itself out and if I have a bad year the only price to pay is 2018 may suck then JS strategy kind of makes sense.

We traded away 2018 picks, we borrowed from the 2018 cap and we signed a bunch of expensive one year deals putting us in a bad cap situation for 2018.

So what do we do - we get rid of players that may be ok in 2018 BUT kind of to old in 2019. Why - because 2018 is the year that was determined up front that it would be the sacrifice year

I think we have a decent team but what I really believe is that it is the foundation for the next run. We can hopefully fight for a wildcard spot and in 2019 we come in with all our draft pick and a good cap situation.

Going for a few comp picks would have meant not being competitive in 2018 and that far we were not willing to fall

jmahon316 · May 9, 2018

mikeak":20ev0r7x said:
jammerhawk":20ev0r7x said:

. It appears his 1yr. contract signing binge proved to be a mistake, as was the trade for Richardson.

Click to expand...

IMHO this NAILS it

I didn’t like all the one year signings last year but was told not to worry about it (by other)

I have come to realize that what probably happened is that we went all in last year KNOWING that 2018 would be the year we paid the price.

Now if you say I can win it all in 2017 and if I do things will figure itself out and if I have a bad year the only price to pay is 2018 may suck then JS strategy kind of makes sense.

We traded away 2018 picks, we borrowed from the 2018 cap and we signed a bunch of expensive one year deals putting us in a bad cap situation for 2018.

So what do we do - we get rid of players that may be ok in 2018 BUT kind of to old in 2019. Why - because 2018 is the year that was determined up front that it would be the sacrifice year

I think we have a decent team but what I really believe is that it is the foundation for the next run. We can hopefully fight for a wildcard spot and in 2019 we come in with all our draft pick and a good cap situation.

Going for a few comp picks would have meant not being competitive in 2018 and that far we were not willing to fall

If I'm not mistaken, we won't have a 2nd round pick next year via Duane Brown.

original poster · May 9, 2018

^Correct.

endzorn · May 9, 2018

One thing to remember is that we haven’t been excluded from the comp picks yet. The vets we signed have to be on the roster for 10 weeks (according to John Clayton), which means there is a chance Seattle will cut some of the vets and recoup a pick or two. If I had to guess I’d say it’s unlikely that CB Johnson, DT Stephen, DT Johnson, OG Fluker, SS Alexander and WR Brown all make the roster. I’m not sure how many we’d have to cut to even get one of the picks, but it’s something to consider.

Atradees · May 9, 2018

Ed Dickson and Jaron Brown will be upgrading the run game and can be YAC fighters. Right away. We needed that.

Hawkfish · May 9, 2018

endzorn":1mdloj1o said:
One thing to remember is that we haven’t been excluded from the comp picks yet. The vets we signed have to be on the roster for 10 weeks (according to John Clayton), which means there is a chance Seattle will cut some of the vets and recoup a pick or two. If I had to guess I’d say it’s unlikely that CB Johnson, DT Stephen, DT Johnson, OG Fluker, SS Alexander and WR Brown all make the roster. I’m not sure how many we’d have to cut to even get one of the picks, but it’s something to consider.

In short, if this season gets away from us (already out of playoff contention by week 9), we will see a lot of cuts to recoup a comp pick or two, correct?

endzorn · May 9, 2018

Hawkfish":3dawo339 said:
endzorn":3dawo339 said:

One thing to remember is that we haven’t been excluded from the comp picks yet. The vets we signed have to be on the roster for 10 weeks (according to John Clayton), which means there is a chance Seattle will cut some of the vets and recoup a pick or two. If I had to guess I’d say it’s unlikely that CB Johnson, DT Stephen, DT Johnson, OG Fluker, SS Alexander and WR Brown all make the roster. I’m not sure how many we’d have to cut to even get one of the picks, but it’s something to consider.

Click to expand...

In short, if this season gets away from us (already out of playoff contention by week 9), we will see a lot of cuts to recoup a comp pick or two, correct?

I might be completely wrong, but I think the veteran signings are to make sure all bases are covered in case the draft doesn’t fall as they expect. After the draft they can evaluate depth and if a rookie is playing even close to what the veteran free agents are then Seattle can release the vet and possibly recoup a pick or two. If Poona Ford looks like a decent backup option for Reed then Stephen might have to kick rocks. If Seattle likes Hill as the backup strong safety then Alexander will be gone. Battles at backup spots are likely where we’d see veteran cuts.

I hope this rookie class balls out and Schneider can cut a few of these rentals.

hawknation2018 · May 9, 2018

I'm glad we are not chasing comp picks this year. Cheap, experienced vets are worth as much -- or more -- than low 4th rounders. The success rate is likely higher for guys with a little more track record.

MontanaHawk05 · May 9, 2018

I'm really just not that broken up over comp picks. Kris Durham and EJ Wilson were chosen right where Seattle would normally get those picks. They're not guaranteed starters.

massari · May 9, 2018

Kinda surprising they'd add all those role players in a "retool" season to sacrifice three 4th round comp picks, especially now that they can be traded.

purpleneer · May 9, 2018

mikeak":37ydyqtz said:
jammerhawk":37ydyqtz said:

. It appears his 1yr. contract signing binge proved to be a mistake, as was the trade for Richardson.

Click to expand...

IMHO this NAILS it

I didn’t like all the one year signings last year but was told not to worry about it (by other)

I have come to realize that what probably happened is that we went all in last year KNOWING that 2018 would be the year we paid the price.

Now if you say I can win it all in 2017 and if I do things will figure itself out and if I have a bad year the only price to pay is 2018 may suck then JS strategy kind of makes sense.

We traded away 2018 picks, we borrowed from the 2018 cap and we signed a bunch of expensive one year deals putting us in a bad cap situation for 2018.

So what do we do - we get rid of players that may be ok in 2018 BUT kind of to old in 2019. Why - because 2018 is the year that was determined up front that it would be the sacrifice year

I think we have a decent team but what I really believe is that it is the foundation for the next run. We can hopefully fight for a wildcard spot and in 2019 we come in with all our draft pick and a good cap situation.

Going for a few comp picks would have meant not being competitive in 2018 and that far we were not willing to fall

I like most of these thoughts. I will say though, that none of the one-year deals of last year was a problem because it was a one-year deal; they were problems because of who they were.
And considering 2018 as a sacrifice year would be a reason against some of the signings they made. It would make 2018 roster holes not worth going beyond non-counting FAs, keeping guys already around, and rookies.
The players signed were signed to contribute. Getting rid of Cable, swapping Graham/Willson for real TEs, and improving the RB room are going to go much farther and quicker than people think.

A-Dog · May 9, 2018

I'm guessing Pete & John thought they'd lose more qualified UFAs which would have allowed them to recoup at least one or two of those 4th round picks. Apparently nobody wants our trash (Joekel, Lacy, etc.). I guess there's still time for them to sign on somewhere? Combined with cutting a bunch of the UFAs we signed maybe we could still get one.

purpleneer · May 10, 2018

A-Dog":tcezcj6r said:
I'm guessing Pete & John thought they'd lose more qualified UFAs which would have allowed them to recoup at least one or two of those 4th round picks. Apparently nobody wants our trash (Joekel, Lacy, etc.). I guess there's still time for them to sign on somewhere? Combined with cutting a bunch of the UFAs we signed maybe we could still get one.

I don't see it. They signed enough to indicate they were never expecting to get any and it's not like it's surprising other teams didn't want Lacy and Joeckel. It's also too late to add anyone to the formula.

mikeak · May 10, 2018

purpleneer":1x7dql5k said:
mikeak":1x7dql5k said:

jammerhawk":1x7dql5k said:

. It appears his 1yr. contract signing binge proved to be a mistake, as was the trade for Richardson.

Click to expand...

IMHO this NAILS it

I didn’t like all the one year signings last year but was told not to worry about it (by other)

I have come to realize that what probably happened is that we went all in last year KNOWING that 2018 would be the year we paid the price.

Now if you say I can win it all in 2017 and if I do things will figure itself out and if I have a bad year the only price to pay is 2018 may suck then JS strategy kind of makes sense.

We traded away 2018 picks, we borrowed from the 2018 cap and we signed a bunch of expensive one year deals putting us in a bad cap situation for 2018.

So what do we do - we get rid of players that may be ok in 2018 BUT kind of to old in 2019. Why - because 2018 is the year that was determined up front that it would be the sacrifice year

I think we have a decent team but what I really believe is that it is the foundation for the next run. We can hopefully fight for a wildcard spot and in 2019 we come in with all our draft pick and a good cap situation.

Going for a few comp picks would have meant not being competitive in 2018 and that far we were not willing to fall

Click to expand...

I like most of these thoughts. I will say though, that none of the one-year deals of last year was a problem because it was a one-year deal; they were problems because of who they were.
And considering 2018 as a sacrifice year would be a reason against some of the signings they made. It would make 2018 roster holes not worth going beyond non-counting FAs, keeping guys already around, and rookies.
The players signed were signed to contribute. Getting rid of Cable, swapping Graham/Willson for real TEs, and improving the RB room are going to go much farther and quicker than people think.

The one difference this year is that the three top guys all signed for 2 years or more. The one year guy are cheap "fillers" that may pan out. Not the $8 million 1 year deal that accomplishes two negatives - 1 instability on your roster for what should be a key guy / position and two really hits your cap in that year. All these 1 year deals are negligible in amounts and the ones for more money has more years to spread it out and you have to think they believe they are part of the future. But even looking at Dickson the largest contract it is "only" $3.6 million guaranteed at signing of which $1.7 million hits the cap if cut after this year

• OLB Barkevious Mingo. Two years, $6.8 million
• TE Ed Dickson. Three years, max value $14 million likely $10.7million contract,)
• WR Jaron Brown. 2 years, $5.5million

S Maurice Alexander. 1 year - $880k
• OL D.J. Fluker. 1 year $1.5million
• DT Tom Johnson. 1 year $2.1 million
• DT Shamar Stephen. 1 year $2.1 million
• CB Dontae Johnson. 1 year $1.3 million

2019 Compensatory Draft Picks Update (5/8/2018)

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