Playoff calculator

johnnyfever · Dec 14, 2017

http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

Notable good news:

---Nfl pickwatch has us at a 67% chance to win vs rams, but not all the votes are in.
---seahawks at a -2 vegas odds, which is less than the usual -3 on for homefield, but still we are the pick.
---Playing with this calculator, we will still have at least a slim chance as long as we beat dallas and the cards, but will
Need some other teams to lose, and not necessarily the ones you would think. Looks like some weird tiebreakers for
other teams come in to play.

Bad news:
---We didn't look good last week. Poor playcalling and strategy, poor execution. Need a better showing.
---Might be out wagner. This would be huge against the rams run game. Could be the decider.
---This game will be close and might come down to a field goal. Or a missed one if you catch my drift.

So....while this is a "must win", it isn't truly that. While no where near probable we make the playoffs if we drop this game, it is still possible. Let's keep our fingers crossed Wags is healthy enough to be Wags.

If we do make the playoffs I don't see us going the distance due to injury and stubborness to stick with a short pass/misdirection strategy, but maybe the coaches will have a change of heart.

Erebus · Dec 14, 2017

I know it's not going to happen, but playing around with the Playoff Machine, I found its still possible to get the #1 seed. It would take a lot of help from some unlikely teams.

Bigpumpkin · Dec 14, 2017

Erebus":1mpj470o said:
I know it's not going to happen, but playing around with the Playoff Machine, I found its still possible to get the #1 seed. It would take a lot of help from some unlikely teams.

Based on your logic....what's it going to take the Cleveland Browns to be #1? :sarcasm_on:

RolandDeschain · Dec 14, 2017

Erebus":1h94puer said:
I know it's not going to happen, but playing around with the Playoff Machine, I found its still possible to get the #1 seed. It would take a lot of help from some unlikely teams.

LOL. *Opens up playoff machine and checks the "every other NFC team falls off a cliff and dies on impact" button.*

Hey, we CAN get the #1 seed, still! :lol:

Scorpion05 · Dec 15, 2017

Okay, I just major mind %$#* myself. A number 2 seed is still possible, but also a MAJORRR stretch

This whole thing actually just scared me rather than encourage me. It will be hard to sweep the Rams. If we lose to either the Rams or Dallas, we could find ourselves kicked out by either Dallas or Green Bay. That would suck

What I am generally getting from this is we win out we're great no matter what. We will definitely host an NFC South team, either the Saints, Falcons, or Panthers.

If we drop one of our last three...We need all of these teams to lose 1 of their last 3 to keep the 6th seed:

1) Dallas
2) Green Bay
3) Detroit

Unless I'm forgetting one, these are our main threats. We need to REALLLYYY root against these teams winning. It would screw us. If they win out and we drop one, they take the 6th seed

To sneak in period, we need one of these teams to lose 2 of their last 3 to be guaranteed to get it

1) Falcons
2) Panthers

Very nerve racking overall. It's entirely possible for either the Falcons or Panthers to drop 2, but I don't want us to be in that position. We MUST win on Sunday

Erebus · Dec 15, 2017

RolandDeschain":3dhfp9mn said:
Erebus":3dhfp9mn said:

I know it's not going to happen, but playing around with the Playoff Machine, I found its still possible to get the #1 seed. It would take a lot of help from some unlikely teams.

Click to expand...

LOL. *Opens up playoff machine and checks the "every other NFC team falls off a cliff and dies on impact" button.*

Hey, we CAN get the #1 seed, still! :lol:

Here's what needs to happen, and why it's such a long shot:

We obviously need to win out. I'm very pessimistic about this happening.

The Eagles need to lose out. They already have 11 wins, but we would hold the head-to-head tie breaker. Even without Carson Wentz, I don't see this happening. They get an easy win this week against the Giants. Then they host the Raiders for another probable win, but with the potential for a loss. They finish off against the Cowboys with Ezekiel Elliott. The Cowboys could probably win that one. However, if they are the only thing keeping us from the #1 seed, that's okay because we could beat them in the playoffs without Wentz.

It would be best if the Vikings lose out, but not strictly necessary. If they are to win only one game, it needs to be against the Bengals. Otherwise they'd have a better conference record than us, thus giving them the tie breaker. They play the Bengals at home, at Packers, and at home against the Bears. The Bengals are unlikely to win, but this game doesn't actually matter. They really need to lose their remaining NFC games. With Aaron Rodgers back, the Packers have a pretty good shot to beat them. Unless the Vikings suffer some serious injuries between now and week 17, the Bears probably have no shot, which means we have no shot at the number one seed.

The Saints need to lose one more game. They host the Jets (win), at Falcons (possible loss), and at Bucs (probable win, but possible loss). The Falcons game is their best chance to lose.

The Panthers need to lose one more game. It doesn't matter which one. They are all NFC games. They play the Packers this week with Aaron Rodgers, at home against the Bucs, then at the Falcons. I like their chances of losing one of those.

Erebus · Dec 15, 2017

Scorpion05":31w7alt0 said:
We MUST win on Sunday

Yes, it's pretty much a playoff game.

original poster · Dec 15, 2017

Great insight, thanks.

I played around a lot with the ESPN playoff machine last week but haven't found the time this week.

Sunday's game is the teams best hope to carry on their run, they will be well aware of this.

Uncle Si · Dec 15, 2017

Every time i go through this I don't see how 10-6 gets the team into the playoffs.

It looks like they need to win out.

Scorpion05 · Dec 15, 2017

Erebus":3opugghk said:
RolandDeschain":3opugghk said:

Erebus":3opugghk said:

I know it's not going to happen, but playing around with the Playoff Machine, I found its still possible to get the #1 seed. It would take a lot of help from some unlikely teams.

Click to expand...

LOL. *Opens up playoff machine and checks the "every other NFC team falls off a cliff and dies on impact" button.*

Hey, we CAN get the #1 seed, still! :lol:

Click to expand...

Here's what needs to happen, and why it's such a long shot:

We obviously need to win out. I'm very pessimistic about this happening.

The Eagles need to lose out. They already have 11 wins, but we would hold the head-to-head tie breaker. Even without Carson Wentz, I don't see this happening. They get an easy win this week against the Giants. Then they host the Raiders for another probable win, but with the potential for a loss. They finish off against the Cowboys with Ezekiel Elliott. The Cowboys could probably win that one. However, if they are the only thing keeping us from the #1 seed, that's okay because we could beat them in the playoffs without Wentz.

It would be best if the Vikings lose out, but not strictly necessary. If they are to win only one game, it needs to be against the Bengals. Otherwise they'd have a better conference record than us, thus giving them the tie breaker. They play the Bengals at home, at Packers, and at home against the Bears. The Bengals are unlikely to win, but this game doesn't actually matter. They really need to lose their remaining NFC games. With Aaron Rodgers back, the Packers have a pretty good shot to beat them. Unless the Vikings suffer some serious injuries between now and week 17, the Bears probably have no shot, which means we have no shot at the number one seed.

The Saints need to lose one more game. They host the Jets (win), at Falcons (possible loss), and at Bucs (probable win, but possible loss). The Falcons game is their best chance to lose.

The Panthers need to lose one more game. It doesn't matter which one. They are all NFC games. They play the Packers this week with Aaron Rodgers, at home against the Bucs, then at the Falcons. I like their chances of losing one of those.

Hoping for the number 1 or 2 seed is pointless to me. I simply want to get in the playoffs. We’ve been solid on the road

If you’re skeptical of us winning our last 3, then there’s no way you can want the Eagles or Vikings to lose any games. The last thing I want is an Aaron Rodgers team running the table and knocking us off because we’d also be 10-6. Can’t happen. Same with Cowboys, or Detroit. They are the only threats to knock us out IF we go 2-1. The Falcons are also tricky

iigakusei · Dec 15, 2017

Uncle Si":318iamjj said:
Every time i go through this I don't see how 10-6 gets the team into the playoffs.

It looks like they need to win out.

We beat the Rams and we both lose the following week. I actually think that is what will happen and we both finish 10-6. It really seems like division or bust though. Don’t see us getting a wild card spot.

SoulfishHawk · Dec 15, 2017

Tenn. just doesn't seem to have what it takes to beat the Rams next week, but you never know.

T-Hawk · Dec 15, 2017

^
It's a 10 am game for the Rams, and they'll be coming off what will hopefully be a very physical and wearing game against us. I agree with you that I don't think the Titans will win it, but there's chance.

johnnyfever · Dec 15, 2017

Uncle Si":hfxu58kl said:
Every time i go through this I don't see how 10-6 gets the team into the playoffs.

It looks like they need to win out.

When I was doing it, it was a weird combination if we lose to the Rams. Green Bay beating lions or something like that put us in 6 seed.

johnnyfever · Dec 15, 2017

johnnyfever":3q91wm2u said:
Uncle Si":3q91wm2u said:

Every time i go through this I don't see how 10-6 gets the team into the playoffs.

It looks like they need to win out.

Click to expand...

When I was doing it, it was a weird combination if we lose to the Rams. Green Bay beating lions or something like that put us in 6 seed.

Plus a couple other unlikely game results.

adeltaY · Dec 15, 2017

The Lions and Packers play each other, so one of them is out based on the results of that game (probably the Lions). If they tied, that would be better for us I think as it would cap their ceilings at 9-6-1, but that's unlikely. Man, if the Raiders could just beat the Cowboys on SNF.... that would be fantastic. Do you guys think the Nick Foles Eagles can beat the Cowboys with Zeke in Philly? I think the have a great shot to do it.

Atlanta is a real problem. Thing is, if the Hawks win and the Falcons win this week, the Rams drop out of the playoffs! If the Falcons can win this week, but lose the last two, that puts either NO or CAR (likely NO) as the division winner and another in the WC spot with the Falcons on the outside. Combine that with a Panthers win over GB, a GB win over Detroit, and an Eagles win over Dallas, and the Hawks get the WC at 10-6, but they'd HAVE to beat the Cowboys.

Playoff calculator

johnnyfever

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Erebus

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Bigpumpkin

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Erebus

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original poster

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