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How many SB wins in 10 years w/ top 5 talent every year

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How many Super Bowl wins in 10 years if you start with a top 5 roster talent wise?

more than 5 SB wins
0
No votes
5
1
2%
4
2
3%
3
13
22%
2
26
44%
Less than 2
17
29%
 
Total votes : 59

  • I think this poll will be a good way to understand why us fans are how we are in regards to doom n gloom vs optimists. It might also reveal other things I imagine. How many SB should you end up with realistically in a 10 year span? You have to take into account that good and bad luck happens throughout each year and from year to year with respect to in game injuries, funny bounces, refs one way or the other, etc....
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    OrangeGravy
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  • Responded to this in the other thread for the most talented team, and for that I said 1.5.

    For the top 5 talented teams anything more than 1 is crazy.

    In a decade there are ten Super Bowls to be won, so to reach 2 as your answer you have to predict that each of the top five teams will win two Super Bowls in ten years.

    Three teams each winning two Super Bowls in a 10 year period has only happened twice since the creation of the Super Bowl.
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  • I cannot answer this poll without knowing the coaching staff that is involved. That makes a very big difference.
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  • 2 SB appearances and 1 win sounds about right. Mathematically you should win twice, but that imo doesn't take into consideration how the postseason works. The top 5 is an average which means the team plays sometimes better and sometimes worse. If you are in the playoffs and lose just one time to an inferior team you are out, and it doesn't matter whether you were the #1 team or #6 team on average.
    Playoff appearances might be a better way to look at this.
    It also depends on how strong your division and conference is. If you are the 10th best team in the NFL, but the second best team in your conference it is way easier to make it to the SB.
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  • 2.

    I'm not even trippin off Super Bowls though.
    I just want to see some basic demonstration of minimal improvement based on lessons learned from watching blatant mistakes being made over & over & over because of outdated schemes and stubborn 'philosophies'. The trophies will fall in where they fall.
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  • Seahawks should have had 2, and I think that's a pretty fair expectation.
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  • The problem with using Super Bowl appearances as a validation of top 5 talent, is that there are several other teams with top-5 talent every year and the playoff rules don't allow ties. Only one team can win. Multiple teams with good coaching and immense talent go home disappointed every year. It's just the way of things.

    You make the playoffs and from there it's a new season. That's the most intellectually defensible yardstick there is.
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  • Well dynasties are rare. Teams spend 4-5 years building so that MAYBE they'll make a deep post season run and win that championship. We were once one of those franchises that never won a Super Bowl. Now, we expect it

    I think our perennial playoff success is something to be proud of. And I think in between that you're gonna see bone headed mistakes. The Patriots for all their greatness in a weak division and conference, had a 10 year stretch with no Super Bowl wins. Belicheck made his fair share of mistakes coaching or otherwise in between that time
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  • This thread is such a thinly veiled way of whining and complaining. I love it!

    Couple of questions, what does "top 5" talent mean? OF course your talking about Seattle, does the fact that they "had" such an above the mean defensive backfield cover up for the fact that they had an equally below the mean offensive line?

    Also top 5 talent means theres literally 5 teams with that..... only 1 can actually win the SB each year...

    Also as has been said, the one and done nature of the nfl playoffs added to the it's only a successful season if you win the superbowl doesnt' really mix.

    The NFL unlike that broken MLB model has a hard salary cap making "dynasties" basically impossible, Also don't forget had we given Lynch the ball and won that super bowl, how many years would it have been between Patrios super bowl wins??????
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  • I wonder if the mood arounfd here would be any different if the team had not blown that play in XLIX?

    Ans: for me 2.

    However the poll question as posed requires a lot of assumptions before answering. It's hard to get to the SB unless you are the Patriots where you play in a division that ensures you will win every season b/c the other 3 teams are perennially weak.

    Is the team underperforming? Perhaps, depending upon your view. being an anual playoff participant though is a measure of a good team and the Hawks have done a good job in that regard since Pn'J have been in charge.
    Until we develop a pass rush that will cause opposing teams to be forced to scheme to defend it we will never be able to consistently take the final step. The interior rush needs improvement. The OLine clearly still needs work.

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  • gowazzu02 wrote:The NFL unlike that broken MLB model has a hard salary cap making "dynasties" basically impossible, Also don't forget had we given Lynch the ball and won that super bowl, how many years would it have been between Patrios super bowl wins??????


    If what's his face caught that onside kick, the Seahawks would have not played in that Super Bowl.

    Part 1:

    A 97% chance of losing the NFCC with several minutes remaining..... that DB fumbled after his INT (?), blown Packers defense, miraculous 2 point conversion, Lynch's suddenly unstoppable, onside kick, get the ball first with momentum.

    Part 2:

    Wilson drives 90 yards for TD with a minute left to go in half after failing to get a completion in the first quarter and generally not doing a whole lot. He makes a handful of rainbow throws to a no name WR, then gets an Antonio Freeman 2.0 catch from Kearse to put the Seahawks in play for that finish.

    That's a helluva lot of things to go right in order for Bevell to screw it all up at the end. Mind you that about 15-20 NFL QBs would have taken the fall for that throw, not their coordinator....

    Nobody ever wants to talk about it, because the Patriots are the most hated team in the NFL I guess.

    But Seahawks were really lucky to even play in that game let alone be able to have a shot at winning it prior to that drive.
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  • I thought about it for a bit and had another thought. Let's assume you are making it to the playoffs every year as a top 5 team (which would be true most of the time). Now let's say you have a 50% chance to win a playoff game (I think that's a good average) since there usually are no easy opponents. If we as a top 5 team would get a first-round bye on 50% of the cases (no clue what a mathematically reasonable percentage would be, but that should suffice).
    Your chance to win the SB without a first-round bye would be 6.25% with one 12.5%, 5x0.0625+5x0.125 = 0.9375%

    Unless my calculations are really off, and please correct me if they are, you would win 1 SB in 10 years. Of course, I did not take the home-field advantage into account and those numbers are far from perfect, but they should give one a good idea of what to expect in my opinion.
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  • Seymour wrote:I cannot answer this poll without knowing the coaching staff that is involved. That makes a very big difference.


    Exactly this. The difference for our team and our Achilles is coaching. Bill Belichick would have already put 3-4 Lombardi's in the case at Vmac.
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  • NINEster wrote:
    gowazzu02 wrote:The NFL unlike that broken MLB model has a hard salary cap making "dynasties" basically impossible, Also don't forget had we given Lynch the ball and won that super bowl, how many years would it have been between Patrios super bowl wins??????


    If what's his face caught that onside kick, the Seahawks would have not played in that Super Bowl.

    Part 1:

    A 97% chance of losing the NFCC with several minutes remaining..... that DB fumbled after his INT (?), blown Packers defense, miraculous 2 point conversion, Lynch's suddenly unstoppable, onside kick, get the ball first with momentum.

    Part 2:

    Wilson drives 90 yards for TD with a minute left to go in half after failing to get a completion in the first quarter and generally not doing a whole lot. He makes a handful of rainbow throws to a no name WR, then gets an Antonio Freeman 2.0 catch from Kearse to put the Seahawks in play for that finish.

    That's a helluva lot of things to go right in order for Bevell to screw it all up at the end. Mind you that about 15-20 NFL QBs would have taken the fall for that throw, not their coordinator....

    Nobody ever wants to talk about it, because the Patriots are the most hated team in the NFL I guess.

    But Seahawks were really lucky to even play in that game let alone be able to have a shot at winning it prior to that drive.


    Ninester, don’t come in here with these common sense posts, don’t you know it’s always Bevell or Pete’s fault, and has nothing todo with players on the field and the luck teams get from the football gods.
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  • Top 5 talent with a competent coaching staff. 3 or more.
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  • 0-1.

    It's so hard - injuries, bounces, luck all goes into it, did you end up with a favorable regular season schedule etc etc

    Look at Manning's Colts or Brady's Pats and that gap between Super Bowl 3 & 4. Those Brady/Moss/Welker Pats where some of the most impressive squads ever - zero rings.

    To steer it towards the Hawks, I'm absolutely satisfied if Pete's run ends with 1 SB win and one SB loss. There's been some damn strong programs competing in the NFC during this run - Harbaugh's 49ers, Packers with Aaron, Panthers and Falcons have consistently been tough for the Hawks.

    I'd say that the Packers, more than anyone, should feel a little underwhelmed by the past 10 years. Though fans should never take a consistent winner and competitive football for granted.
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  • NINEster wrote:
    gowazzu02 wrote:The NFL unlike that broken MLB model has a hard salary cap making "dynasties" basically impossible, Also don't forget had we given Lynch the ball and won that super bowl, how many years would it have been between Patrios super bowl wins??????


    If what's his face caught that onside kick, the Seahawks would have not played in that Super Bowl.

    Part 1:

    A 97% chance of losing the NFCC with several minutes remaining..... that DB fumbled after his INT (?), blown Packers defense, miraculous 2 point conversion, Lynch's suddenly unstoppable, onside kick, get the ball first with momentum.

    Part 2:

    Wilson drives 90 yards for TD with a minute left to go in half after failing to get a completion in the first quarter and generally not doing a whole lot. He makes a handful of rainbow throws to a no name WR, then gets an Antonio Freeman 2.0 catch from Kearse to put the Seahawks in play for that finish.

    That's a helluva lot of things to go right in order for Bevell to screw it all up at the end. Mind you that about 15-20 NFL QBs would have taken the fall for that throw, not their coordinator....

    Nobody ever wants to talk about it, because the Patriots are the most hated team in the NFL I guess.

    But Seahawks were really lucky to even play in that game let alone be able to have a shot at winning it prior to that drive.


    Every team has lucky plays that take them to the SB or win it for them. If James Harrison rushes the passer instead of dropping back, maybe the Steelers don't have six. If Edelman doesn't grab a ball that could easily have been picked off the ground, the Falcons have their first championship. If Kevin Dyson made it that extra yard, the Titans get theirs. If Kyle Williams doesn't keep putting the ball on the ground or Kaep completes either fade to Crabtree.... you get the point.

    We were lucky, but we were also very unlucky in that SB run. Not going to apologize or feel bad for it. You can pick apart the lucky plays that went for us and ignore the injuries that we sustained through that SB. Highlight the big play Kearse made and fail to mentioned the crucial drop he committed that would likely have sealed the game.
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  • Even the #1 talented team could not win a SB in 10 years. There's no true thermometer for this. The problem lies in a 1 and done tournament. There isn't an odds equalizer like in other sports to allow talent to truly shine through. Best of 3 would change everything.
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  • kobebryant wrote:0-1.

    It's so hard - injuries, bounces, luck all goes into it, did you end up with a favorable regular season schedule etc etc

    Look at Manning's Colts or Brady's Pats and that gap between Super Bowl 3 & 4. Those Brady/Moss/Welker Pats where some of the most impressive squads ever - zero rings.

    To steer it towards the Hawks, I'm absolutely satisfied if Pete's run ends with 1 SB win and one SB loss. There's been some damn strong programs competing in the NFC during this run - Harbaugh's 49ers, Packers with Aaron, Panthers and Falcons have consistently been tough for the Hawks.

    I'd say that the Packers, more than anyone, should feel a little underwhelmed by the past 10 years. Though fans should never take a consistent winner and competitive football for granted.


    Packers are the most underachiveving team in the entire NFL the last 25ish years

    I mean CMON

    You have Favre and Rodgers back to back with barely any other QB play inbetween that and you can only win 2 superbowls in that time..that is a collosal failure, im sorry.

    Quite possible having the 2nd best QB ever to play in Rodgers and then easily top 10 QB in nfl history with Favre. 2 HOF Qbs

    In that same time period the Seahawks have been to the same ammount of superbowls but went 1-2 instead of 2-1. I know in the NFC side Packers, Giants and Seahawks are the ONLY teams that have been there 3 times since Favre became a Packer so as far as the NFC goes the Seahawks have been one of the best teams in it
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  • The very upper limit is 2 and requires assuming that only the top 5 teams can win the Super Bowl (1/5 * 10 years = 2 wins).

    Of course the Super Bowl winner is often not one of the preseason top 5 teams, so the real answer is significantly less than 2.

    BigMeach wrote:Even the #1 talented team could not win a SB in 10 years. There's no true thermometer for this. The problem lies in a 1 and done tournament. There isn't an odds equalizer like in other sports to allow talent to truly shine through. Best of 3 would change everything.

    You're right but I don't think it's a problem. It keeps the dream alive for the 31 other teams that are not the best and the NFL playoffs are super exciting. It might feel bad when you're at the very top, but in the long run it's a great way of handling things. I love the idea that every game matters a huge amount and single plays here and there determine the entire season.
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  • Seahawks should have been a dynasty. They got 1 ring but they are the biggest underachievers in recent years.
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  • In the current free agent system, only one the Patriots were able to win more than 2 in one decade and they won 3 out of 4 and missed the playoffs in the one year they did not win the Superbowl after that they did not win another one for 11 years. The other team that was loaded with talent and only won one time was the Manning Colts. The one thing both of these teams have in common was the ability to win 12 games every season and be the 1 or 2 seed in the conference. As much as I wanted the Seahawks to be on the Colts/Patriots level it looks like they are more like the Ravens. They won one Superbowl and hovered around 10-11 wins for a decade would win one playoff game about every year then won a second Superbowl as a last gasp for one of the founding members of the 2000 team 12 years later. I can see that happen with an Old man Sherman/Thomas safety combo and Bobby Wagner gutting another Superbowl out in the late 2020's
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  • adeltaY wrote:Every team has lucky plays that take them to the SB or win it for them. If James Harrison rushes the passer instead of dropping back, maybe the Steelers don't have six. If Edelman doesn't grab a ball that could easily have been picked off the ground, the Falcons have their first championship. If Kevin Dyson made it that extra yard, the Titans get theirs. If Kyle Williams doesn't keep putting the ball on the ground or Kaep completes either fade to Crabtree.... you get the point.


    My guess is Ninestar would 100% agree with you on all of this.

    I *think* his point is that we as fans always talk about insanely bad luck when we get really close, but all the times of insanely good luck that got us really close or got us wins go right down the memory hole.

    For the Hawks, for every 100 times a Hawks fan talks about that goal line interception in the SB, how many times does a Hawks fan talk about the totally insane luck that even allowed the Hawks to make it out of Green Bay? Once? Less than that?

    For every 100 time a 9ers fan talk about Kyle Williams costing them a SB appearance, how many times do they talk about the insanely good luck of the 9ers getting away with highway robbery on a horribly blown call earlier in that game that even allowed Kyle Williams to screw it up to begin with? Once? Less than that?

    I think as fans, when our teams benefit from ridiculously good luck we either forget about it or explain it away as our team being awesome, whereas when our team has bad luck we obsess over it and think it's totally unfair and sad (mostly because we've already explained everything it took to get into that situation to begin with).

    For me, as a 9ers fan, I come across this a lot with other 9ers fans and that last pass in the Super Bowl. 9ers fans obsess over how we were a few inches away from winning a Super Bowl, how if Harbaugh hadn't called a timeout a half second before the snap before that the 9ers had a scoring play and would have won. My take is that yeah, those thing are true, but it totally overlooks that the 9ers were down 28-6 in the 3rd quarter. That they even got close at all is INSANE. 9ers fans don't want to talk about that though.
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  • Popeyejones wrote:
    adeltaY wrote:Every team has lucky plays that take them to the SB or win it for them. If James Harrison rushes the passer instead of dropping back, maybe the Steelers don't have six. If Edelman doesn't grab a ball that could easily have been picked off the ground, the Falcons have their first championship. If Kevin Dyson made it that extra yard, the Titans get theirs. If Kyle Williams doesn't keep putting the ball on the ground or Kaep completes either fade to Crabtree.... you get the point.


    My guess is Ninestar would 100% agree with you on all of this.

    I *think* his point is that we as fans always talk about insanely bad luck when we get really close, but all the times of insanely good luck that got us really close or got us wins go right down the memory hole.

    For the Hawks, for every 100 times a Hawks fan talks about that goal line interception in the SB, how many times does a Hawks fan talk about the totally insane luck that even allowed the Hawks to make it out of Green Bay? Once? Less than that?

    For every 100 time a 9ers fan talk about Kyle Williams costing them a SB appearance, how many times do they talk about the insanely good luck of the 9ers getting away with highway robbery on a horribly blown call earlier in that game that even allowed Kyle Williams to screw it up to begin with? Once? Less than that?

    I think as fans, when our teams benefit from ridiculously good luck we either forget about it or explain it away as our team being awesome, whereas when our team has bad luck we obsess over it and think it's totally unfair and sad (mostly because we've already explained everything it took to get into that situation to begin with).

    For me, as a 9ers fan, I come across this a lot with other 9ers fans and that last pass in the Super Bowl. 9ers fans obsess over how we were a few inches away from winning a Super Bowl, how if Harbaugh hadn't called a timeout a half second before the snap before that the 9ers had a scoring play and would have won. My take is that yeah, those thing are true, but it totally overlooks that the 9ers were down 28-6 in the 3rd quarter. That they even got close at all is INSANE. 9ers fans don't want to talk about that though.


    Very valid points, thanks.

    Certainly food for thought.
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  • gowazzu02 wrote:This thread is such a thinly veiled way of whining and complaining. I love it!

    Couple of questions, what does "top 5" talent mean? OF course your talking about Seattle, does the fact that they "had" such an above the mean defensive backfield cover up for the fact that they had an equally below the mean offensive line?

    Also top 5 talent means theres literally 5 teams with that..... only 1 can actually win the SB each year...

    Also as has been said, the one and done nature of the nfl playoffs added to the it's only a successful season if you win the superbowl doesnt' really mix.

    The NFL unlike that broken MLB model has a hard salary cap making "dynasties" basically impossible, Also don't forget had we given Lynch the ball and won that super bowl, how many years would it have been between Patrios super bowl wins??????


    Not whining at all. I wanted to see if looking at things from this angle changed anyone's outlook whether they were optimists or doomers. I thought if would be an interesting exercise. Of course you have to make a lot of assumptions to come up with an answer so it's not meant to be perfect. Just something to see where people's expectations might start from. I don't complain about any of this stuff. I'm ok with being in the playoff picture every year. I certainly get frustrated during games, but I can't control any of so it ends once the game is over. I also understand that much of how a season unfolds for any team is even out of their control.


    My answer of 2 is highly hopeful. I was thinking of making the answers more like 0-2/2-4/4-6 or something like that would have been better.
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  • jammerhawk wrote:I wonder if the mood arounfd here would be any different if the team had not blown that play in XLIX?

    Ans: for me 2.

    However the poll question as posed requires a lot of assumptions before answering. It's hard to get to the SB unless you are the Patriots where you play in a division that ensures you will win every season b/c the other 3 teams are perennially weak.

    Is the team underperforming? Perhaps, depending upon your view. being an anual playoff participant though is a measure of a good team and the Hawks have done a good job in that regard since Pn'J have been in charge.


    This is why I hate the Patriots more than anything. Yes they've been great for a long time, but they are in the playoffs before camp even starts. It rarely gets mentioned it seems and I do think it's a huge advantage that gets downplayed or mostly ignored. Drives me nuts
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  • There is a weird conflation here.

    I don't think the Seahawks have squandered talent because they aren't going to SBs anymore.

    Instead because they are not even competitive in the playoffs after the wildcard game.

    This team has the talent or resources to be a team that should be putting together great division or conference championship games, even when they lose.

    Instead, they get boatraced in games after the wildcard. They are never even competitive since the SB loss.

    I suspect the discontent is more about that failure.

    SBs are hard to reach. We aren't the Patriots. But we are now barely a wildcard team for 3 years running.

    There were certainly squandered opportunities that were less hindsight and more reasonable fixes that should have been made.
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  • They made the Super Bowl 3 times in 10 seasons, and are going to the playoffs with regularity. One play from back to back titles. They've won the NFC West 3 of the last 4 years. They've won at least 1 Playoff game in their LAST 9 playoff appearances (between 2005 and 2016 they only missed the playoffs 3 times) That's pretty damn impressive. I'm sure plenty of fan bases would LOVE to have the problems the Hawks have.
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  • I think you're fortunate to win just one. Football is a game of inches and lucky bounces.
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  • SmokinHawk wrote:I think you're fortunate to win just one. Football is a game of inches and lucky bounces.


    Yep.

    That 2013 Seahawks team was as excellent and as deep as a team can get in this era of football. Even then, they were potentially a better decision or throw by Kaepernick, an Aldon Smith offsides, or Navarro Bowman injury away from not winning a Super Bowl at all. Not to say that they were undeserving, just that the margin is so razor thin. If you take that 2013 49ers team and put them in 2017 they're steamrolling their way to a Super Bowl.

    in 2014 the Hawks are a Lee Evans drop away from seeing the Ravens instead of Brady in the Super Bowl.

    So much goes into it - luck with injuries and bounces, refs, schedule, quality of the rest of the league that year etc
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  • RCATES wrote:
    Seymour wrote:I cannot answer this poll without knowing the coaching staff that is involved. That makes a very big difference.


    Exactly this. The difference for our team and our Achilles is coaching. Bill Belichick would have already put 3-4 Lombardi's in the case at Vmac.


    And what is your reasoning behind that? Because he's done it with a GOAT QB, so he should be able to do it with Wilson and our band of miscreants.

    Looking at Belichek's coaching style, it's quite likely he would have dumped half our "top 5" talent in favor of less athletic but smarter players. His schemes change from week to week so he needs fairly bright players to learn and execute them.
    Pete keeps things simple and allows athleticism and competitiveness to carry the day. It's a markedly different style that works with our guys. Not sure our guys fit a Belichek team.

    I think your can't separate talent from coaching as easily as you are doing. Are our players talented because of their skills alone or are they talented because they've been coached up and fit a particular system? Until they go somewhere else and succeed, there is no clear answer to that conundrum.

    So your assertion that our Achilles heel is coaching is flawed based on assumption that have no clear provable answer. For all we know, coaching is what is keeping us competitive each year. People tend to assume that all bad outcomes are coaching mistakes. Sometimes they are and sometimes they are players mistakes or opponents good play.

    There are lots of reasons why we are not going to the SB this year. Key injuries to star players. an early incompetent OL. A failure of certain players to develop further. Draft failures. Coaching decisions. Bad kicking.
    You can't point to one area, coaching, and ignore everything else.

    We won a SB because we were healthy, deep and athletic. That is hard to sustain every year and few teams do it.
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  • This should have been one of the great sports dynasties.

    One and done instead
    irfuben32
    NET Practice Squad
     
    Posts: 93
    Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2013 9:07 am


  • This should have been one of the great sports dynasties.

    One and done instead

    Without a doubt. Pete maximized his potential 3 years ago, since he has been below average as a talent evaluator and coach. I found it ironic that as the Packers tried to get by for years with a subpar O line through choices made and Seattle has done the same. People will disagree, but the Hawks should have went one more year paying RW as low as possible, kept Golden Tate and the O line together and they would have won maybe two more Super Bowls in this run. The ideal is to dump players who are proven and aging for draft choices. Kam, and Bennett should have been let go in 2014, and deal with the holes left with solid role players that have hungry hearts. The real problem with the Seahawks lies in the fact that they are satisfied financially, and believe they are great, when they are just great players who together are disfunctional.
    jeremiah
    NET Practice Squad
     
    Posts: 88
    Joined: Sun Nov 03, 2013 6:10 pm




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