Seattle's strength of victory scenario to win the division

With the last two wins by the Cardinals, their odds of winning the division increased to virtually 100%. Congrats Cards fans, your team almost certainly has the division locked up with the win last night. But just for fun, here is a breakdown of what needs to happen for Seattle to be division champs in 2015:

Seattle MUST win out. Arizona MUST lose out. A tie by either team clinches the division for AZ. This would put both teams at 11-5.

If this happens, here is how the division tiebreakers would apply:


Head-to-head: Tied 1-1.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division. Tied 4-2.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games. Tied. 9-3.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference. Tied 8-4.
Strength of victory. Arizona currently leading SoV tiebreaker by 3 wins (see below).
Strength of schedule. Seattle wins SoS tiebreaker (thanks to Carolina having a monster year).

So how does strength of victory shake out? Well, assuming that Seattle wins out and Arizona loses out, then most of the teams Seattle will have beaten are teams AZ beat too, with the exception of four teams:

AZ has victories over Cincy (10-2) and New Orleans (4-8).
Seattle has victories over Pittsburgh (7-5) and Dallas (4-8).

This puts Seahawks fans in the ironic position of rooting for the Steelers and Cowboys.

The good news here is that New Orleans has one of the worst defenses in NFL history and their remaining schedule is against some teams playing better football late in the season (other than Atlanta). The other good news is that Pittsburgh is one of the hottest teams in the NFL and has a decent shot to finish 11-5.

The bad news is that Cincy is 10-2 and will probably finish 12-4 at worst as they have games against Baltimore and @SF left on the schedule. Add SF to the ironic list of teams to root for. And the worst news is that Dallas needs to win games, and Dallas is really terrible. Dallas will only be favored to win in one of their final four games.

However, if Seattle gains 3 games in the strength of victory area over the next 4 weeks, then it would make SoV a tie and move the division tiebreaker to SoS, which Seattle will win.

It's a real long shot though, even if AZ loses out and Seattle wins out I'd still guess that AZ has a 80-90% chance to win the division based on SoV. I could see Seattle picking up 1 win in SoV, but 3 is going to be hard. Remaining games for each SoV team:

Cincy: Steelers, @49ers, @Broncos, Ravens
New Orleans: @Tampa, Detroit, Jacksonville, @Atlanta
Pittsburgh: @Cincy, Broncos, @Baltimore, @Cleveland
Dallas: @GB, Jets, @Buffalo, Washington

Thanks for the analysis, Kip. Yeah, kind of a remote possibility. I've kind of resigned myself to being a WC this year. It would be nice to be the next WC to win a Superb Owl, though.

Good breakdown. Last nights game all but clinched the division for the Cardinals, but with the Vikings loss, at least we can move into the number 5 seed this week, and having not been mathematically eliminated from the division, along with the wildcard, gives our guys something to fight for. Should be a good run, but it's realistically looking like no home games in the playoffs this year.

I almost look forward to this challenge. The 3 times we've been to the Superbowl, the HFA in the playoffs has been credited with helping the team tremendously. If they can win it all on the road, it will go to show that the players are a pretty talented bunch and can earn it without the HFA.

Either way, it's going to be a fun ride.

Hasselbeck":3132p0lv said:

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Well played. :laugh:

We'll beat Arizona when it counts in the playoffs.

Im kind of over needing to win the NFC West. Cardinals are a great team but they are either one of luckiest teams in the NFL and/or especially after watching the only games Ive seen them play fully, Sea, Cincy, and 49ers that the NFL is kind of pushing them along much like they did with the Colts the last 3 years... Calling ticky tack penalaties on the opponents but allowing them to get away with the same or worst.

Seahawks play 3 of the last 5 on the road with this back to back 10 am trips. The good thing about NFL scheduling the last few years (in retrospect) is that they do those back to back (some times 3 in a row) road games that more or less helps them prepare them for the Play-Off mindset. I feel like theyll keep thier Championship edge on the road, kind of like the hunters mentality rather than being the hunted. The Underdog.

If teams feel like they have an advantage at home, behind thier crowd, and feel more comfortable... Its only going to be more demoralizing when this team punches those opponents in the face.

Sans officiating I like the Seahawks chances in the Play-Offs, whether on the road or at home. Wilson and most of these Seahawks have played what 8 post-seasons games the last 3 years and two SBs, going 6-2, they know whats at stake more than any team out there than perhaps the Packers.

kidhawk":qdkktq45 said:

Good breakdown. Last nights game all but clinched the division for the Cardinals, but with the Vikings loss, at least we can move into the number 5 seed this week, and having not been mathematically eliminated from the division, along with the wildcard, gives our guys something to fight for. Should be a good run, but it's realistically looking like no home games in the playoffs this year.

I almost look forward to this challenge. The 3 times we've been to the Superbowl, the HFA in the playoffs has been credited with helping the team tremendously. If they can win it all on the road, it will go to show that the players are a pretty talented bunch and can earn it without the HFA.

Either way, it's going to be a fun ride.

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For the media, the narrative would still be something like "subpar Seahawks could only manage 5th seed but somehow pull massive amounts of luck out of their butts in the playoffs".

Bitter":333qqtd5 said:

kidhawk":333qqtd5 said:

Good breakdown. Last nights game all but clinched the division for the Cardinals, but with the Vikings loss, at least we can move into the number 5 seed this week, and having not been mathematically eliminated from the division, along with the wildcard, gives our guys something to fight for. Should be a good run, but it's realistically looking like no home games in the playoffs this year.

I almost look forward to this challenge. The 3 times we've been to the Superbowl, the HFA in the playoffs has been credited with helping the team tremendously. If they can win it all on the road, it will go to show that the players are a pretty talented bunch and can earn it without the HFA.

Either way, it's going to be a fun ride.

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For the media, the narrative would still be something like "subpar Seahawks could only manage 5th seed but somehow pull massive amounts of luck out of their butts in the playoffs".

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I highly highly doubt this. There is no media hate towards us at all. In fact, a lot still picking us for SB and many saying were the most dangerous team going into the playoffs regardless of seed.

This isnt 2010. You can drop this angle.

I'd really like to see a division title or a wild card spot come down to a coin flip, but it's like the 12th tiebreaker after all of the statistical crap.

253hawk":actrgx1a said:

I'd really like to see a division title or a wild card spot come down to a coin flip, but it's like the 12th tiebreaker after all of the statistical crap.

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If this was to ever occur (I think the statistical anomaly after point distribution has to put it at like .00001% of happening), the losing team would be uproarious that their season was decided by a coin.

Its hard enough watching draft picks get coin flipped.

Summarized:

Thanks Kearly. Honestly I already have been focusing on the other matchups that would prevent us from being the #5 seed for the playoffs. But fun to dream!

Cartire":2ywkf95d said:

If this was to ever occur (I think the statistical anomaly after point distribution has to put it at like .00001% of happening), the losing team would be uproarious that their season was decided by a coin.

Its hard enough watching draft picks get coin flipped.

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It's hilarious that it's even in the books. Even rock-paper-scissors would be more fair.

Largent80":3lr8gz70 said:

We'll beat Arizona when it counts in the playoffs.

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I like your optimism.

*chuckle*

AZ_fan":2xdkgo8d said:

Largent80":2xdkgo8d said:

We'll beat Arizona when it counts in the playoffs.

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I like your optimism.

*chuckle*

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Given what we saw yesterday vs the same team we blew out four days earlier (and the declining Arizona DVOA) we have good reason to be optimistic.

just go to the playoff machine guys....
http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

AZ_fan":1lqxheno said:

Largent80":1lqxheno said:

We'll beat Arizona when it counts in the playoffs.

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I like your optimism.

*chuckle*

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I seriously doubt the hawks will get as jobbed by the refs when we meet Arizona in the playoffs as they did last meeting. I almost never complain about officiating outside of my four walls, because i respect the difficulty of the position. But that game was painfully pathetic to watch unfold with the meticulous eyes on our guys and blindfolds on yours.

Barring that crew, I'm really optimistic about the rematch.

Polaris":38eo0t7o said:

AZ_fan":38eo0t7o said:

Largent80":38eo0t7o said:

We'll beat Arizona when it counts in the playoffs.

Click to expand...

I like your optimism.

*chuckle*

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Given what we saw yesterday vs the same team we blew out four days earlier (and the declining Arizona DVOA) we have good reason to be optimistic.

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Apples and oranges... I'll take an ugly win over a pretty loss on TNF any day.

It wasn't that long ago all we heard was complaints from Seattle fans regarding the issues with their team... right around the time of that ugly 13-12 win over Dallas and their 4th string quality QB.

Then comes a loss in Seattle to AZ... and then after wins over SF, Pittsburgh, and Minnesota now the turnaround is complete and the Seahawks are back.

I'm sure we'll here more of it in the coming weeks given the upcoming games against the Ravens, Browns, and Rams which should put Seattle at 10-5.

Sorry, I'm not buying it. I just don't see anything special... a quality road win over an average Minnesota team... a shootout win at home over Pittsburgh... and losses to every other quality team on the schedule.

If Seattle had HFA I'd most definitely be worried... but given the fact that it's going to take 3 road wins (we don't need to talk about the .00005% chance Seattle still has of winning the division because we all know that isn't happening and we also don't need to talk about how their is going to be some miracle SEA/GB NFCCG 5th/6th seed battle at CLink) I will say I'm not worried in the slightest but I do really like reading all the optimism here.

... and yeah, if Seattle somehow wins 3 on the road to become the first NFC team to reach 3 straight SB's as well as the first team ever to reach the SB after starting 2-4 I will most definitely be here to say I was wrong and eat my crow.

That being said, I look forward to the playoffs.

Optimus25":3j94kuth said:

AZ_fan":3j94kuth said:

Largent80":3j94kuth said:

We'll beat Arizona when it counts in the playoffs.

Click to expand...

I like your optimism.

*chuckle*

Click to expand...

I seriously doubt the hawks will get as jobbed by the refs when we meet Arizona in the playoffs as they did last meeting. I almost never complain about officiating outside of my four walls, because i respect the difficulty of the position. But that game was painfully pathetic to watch unfold with the meticulous eyes on our guys and blindfolds on yours.

Barring that crew, I'm really optimistic about the rematch.

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The officiating across the league has been garbage since week 1.

That being said, I'd expect no less than a great game.

You guys have every reason to be optimistic but I think it's a bit premature to think teams like Carolina and AZ are shaking in their boots about the prospects of having to host a playoff game vs the Seahawks.

They say to be the best you have to beat the best... and the challenge is most welcomed.