Wilson's height and passing over the (short) middle

2015:


2012 - 2014:


2010 - 2011:


I'm not explaining it.

This is proof that were not losing because he needs to get laid. God is pissed that Ciara's not gettin' any. "I create this beauty and you turn up your nose?" Come on Russ, take one for the team!

Meh. I think it has more to do with vision.

He only pulls the trigger on receivers that are wide open, so the high completion % and low int % can be explained.

I'm more worried with the guys he's NOT seeing, and the passes he's not throwing.

Hawks46":3fmf47uz said:

Meh. I think it has more to do with vision.

He only pulls the trigger on receivers that are wide open, so the high completion % and low int % can be explained.

I'm more worried with the guys he's NOT seeing, and the passes he's not throwing.

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Which is a great 'problem' in the NFL. If only there was some sort of coaching or coordinating that could help Wilson do better. Guess there isn't though, he just needs to find it within himself to be better and will himself to success like any great QB does. :stirthepot:

The fact that he's still breathing, while playing behind that line is a miracle.

I saw him miss a few receivers deep, when the guy woulda been in the end zone if Wilson had led him downfield away from the defensive back. I was wondering about his accuracy. He can obviously through a deep bomb. There coulda been another defensive player not in the picture, but it looked like the rec was over the top of the defense and Wilson couldn't get it to him in the right spot.

Hawks46":1h26h569 said:

Meh. I think it has more to do with vision.

He only pulls the trigger on receivers that are wide open, so the high completion % and low int % can be explained.

I'm more worried with the guys he's NOT seeing, and the passes he's not throwing.

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Well, you're welcome to show examples. Until I see it, I'll go with the guy who's been better at it than the guys we had at the position before him.

2001-2015:


Hasselbedck:
131 games
2.47 attempts per game

Wilson:
54 games
3.53 attempts per game

I take it there were a bunch of threads about how a 6'4'' Hasselbeck couldn't see over the line and wasn't pulling the trigger on open guys because he was too short.

Here's the thing. I'm not saying Russ sees all of the open receivers. I'm just saying it's ridiculous that people think it's a big enough problem that he isn't playing like a real quarterback should.

His production through less than half as many games is nearly the same (14 TDs in 54 games vs 18 in 131 games), his accuracy is better, his Y/A is better, he throws to the middle more often and he has a much higher TD%). Sounds like a really good thing to be upset about.

I guess what I would want to know before making conclusions based on this data is what the actual plays look like and how many times he maybe could have thrown but didn't. The efficiency won't go down by not throwing it. So, in a sense, his efficiency in the area improves because he only throws to very visible players in the area.

Regardless of whether or not the numbers bear out there being a true limitation, it is something that credible people have spotted too.

Jayson Jenks, Seattle Times:

Wilson, listed at 5 feet 11, struggles with anticipation from inside the pocket in part because there are targets he simply can’t see. He rarely attempts to throw short or intermediate passes over the middle. Most of his throws go outside in the flat or down the sideline.

“Even when guys are open over the middle of the field, and I’ve seen guys a lot of times open over the middle, a lot of times he just doesn’t have the vision to see those guys,” Warren Moon said. “That’s always going to be a detriment to him. If there’s a criticism of Russell’s game, that would be the criticism.”

...

“When he’s late on his timing or he misses his receiver, you can see that a lineman was right in his path,” former NFL quarterback Hugh Millen said. “You can see that he momentarily freezes, and he can’t see. It’s very obvious. I don’t draw it as a problem anymore; it just is what it is.”

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DavidSeven":1ririoxe said:

I guess what I would want to know before making conclusions based on this data is what the actual plays look like and how many times he maybe could have thrown but didn't.

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[/quote]

Exactly. A lot of Seattle's passing plays end up in the rushing column.

DavidSeven":qhd64zza said:

I guess what I would want to know before making conclusions based on this data is what the actual plays look like and how many times he maybe could have thrown but didn't. The efficiency won't go down by not throwing it. So, in a sense, his efficiency in the area improves because he only throws to very visible players in the area.

Regardless of whether or not the numbers bear out there being a true limitation, it is something that credible people have spotted too.

Jayson Jenks, Seattle Times:

Wilson, listed at 5 feet 11, struggles with anticipation from inside the pocket in part because there are targets he simply can’t see. He rarely attempts to throw short or intermediate passes over the middle. Most of his throws go outside in the flat or down the sideline.

“Even when guys are open over the middle of the field, and I’ve seen guys a lot of times open over the middle, a lot of times he just doesn’t have the vision to see those guys,” Warren Moon said. “That’s always going to be a detriment to him. If there’s a criticism of Russell’s game, that would be the criticism.”

...

“When he’s late on his timing or he misses his receiver, you can see that a lineman was right in his path,” former NFL quarterback Hugh Millen said. “You can see that he momentarily freezes, and he can’t see. It’s very obvious. I don’t draw it as a problem anymore; it just is what it is.”

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Yeah, I heard Warren discuss it as well. As I said, wasn't claiming he could see all of the receivers. I've done a breakdown of the top 10 rated QB's over the short middle and showed what percentage of their passes were thrown over the short middle. League average since Russell came in was around 16-18% I believe. He and Kaepernick were around 14% of total passing volume going over the middle.

That said, I just showed that he has gone to the short middle more often over the course of his career than Hasselbeck did over 10 years and 131 games in Seattle. If someone wants to do some actual analysis to find out what percentage of pass plays he affects the team negatively because he didn't go to an open receiver in the middle, I'm happy to read it and will likely agree with their conclusion. Until then, I'll take what we've been getting because it's better than what we had.

[edit] I should note that it's not even a question that you know more about football than I do. Not a debate, I just see this as less of an issue than it would appear, anyone else does.

It appears that reaction to that is to just not run routes over the middle now and instead leverage all our receiving talent into routes that require time to develop, in spite of the OL.

:lol:

Not too mention Russell is most likely slightly shorter than he was in 2012 as compared to 2015.

I suggest the Cardinals send their magic QB guru over Kurt Warner, and let him work magic in a similar way he did with Kap. :stirthepot:

Hawks46":1hl9s6z2 said:

Meh. I think it has more to do with vision.

He only pulls the trigger on receivers that are wide open, so the high completion % and low int % can be explained.

I'm more worried with the guys he's NOT seeing, and the passes he's not throwing.

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Teams are rushing 5 on most every passing down, sending a LB up the middle. This closes off both Russell's passing lanes over the middle, contains him so he can't step up and/or take off running it up the middle.

So he has to adjust. Bevell needs to come up with some plays that will take advantage of the absent linebacker. And you're right, he has had open receivers and hasn't been pulling the trigger. Part of that has been because he's too damn worried about where the next sack might come from.

MontanaHawk05":2onz6hck said:

DavidSeven":2onz6hck said:

I guess what I would want to know before making conclusions based on this data is what the actual plays look like and how many times he maybe could have thrown but didn't.

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Exactly. A lot of Seattle's passing plays end up in the rushing column.[/quote]

Or sack column (and not always because of poor protection).

Recon_Hawk":3bfbbrut said:

Or sack column (and not always because of poor protection).

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Not always, but majority of time, yes, because of poor protection.

If it was even close to 50/50 it'd be something but I've been binging on All-22 since last night and a lot of times the play is DOA because it takes for granted that there will be time to let the play develop. The sacks taken by RW that are wholly on him don't even close in on 25% the sacks he's taken.

Hey, Laloosh:

Could you please do an all-22 of the offensive plays in the Fourth Quarter? Especially on third down. I tried watching the broadcast versions, but I couldn't see whether the receivers were open or not. I know we are on a short week, so I was hoping to see something. I check this site primarily for those posts, and I would greatly appreciate any effort you could make to do it. Thank you if you are able, if not, thanks anyway for insightful posts you bring. I was going to start a thread asking this question, but it seems even more presumptuous than me just posting it on a thread you started.

aawolf":17oelwpv said:

Hey, Laloosh:

Could you please do an all-22 of the offensive plays in the Fourth Quarter? Especially on third down. I tried watching the broadcast versions, but I couldn't see whether the receivers were open or not. I know we are on a short week, so I was hoping to see something. I check this site primarily for those posts, and I would greatly appreciate any effort you could make to do it. Thank you if you are able, if not, thanks anyway for insightful posts you bring. I was going to start a thread asking this question, but it seems even more presumptuous than me just posting it on a thread you started.

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I haven't even watched the all 22 yet. Been a little busier this week but if I get through it tonight I'll post something. I actually wanted to take a look at 2nd downs in general this week because of the drop in his numbers on 2nd down over these six games.

aawolf":1r2yjnca said:

Hey, Laloosh:

Could you please do an all-22 of the offensive plays in the Fourth Quarter? Especially on third down. I tried watching the broadcast versions, but I couldn't see whether the receivers were open or not. I know we are on a short week, so I was hoping to see something. I check this site primarily for those posts, and I would greatly appreciate any effort you could make to do it. Thank you if you are able, if not, thanks anyway for insightful posts you bring. I was going to start a thread asking this question, but it seems even more presumptuous than me just posting it on a thread you started.

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viewtopic.php?f=2&t=116423#p1732858

Here are two earliest 3rd downs in the 4th quarter.

Not ONLY is the line ranked last but is 12% below the worst team above us. It explains A LOT.

mrt144":2odctqyb said:

Recon_Hawk":2odctqyb said:

MontanaHawk05":2odctqyb said:

DavidSeven":2odctqyb said:

I guess what I would want to know before making conclusions based on this data is what the actual plays look like and how many times he maybe could have thrown but didn't.

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Click to expand...

Exactly. A lot of Seattle's passing plays end up in the rushing column.

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Or sack column (and not always because of poor protection).

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Not always, but majority of time, yes, because of poor protection.[/quote]

I might be in minority on this, but I feel O-line talent is close to even around the league. That includes us. That's not to say they are any good. They really aren't, but neither are many other teams.

It's hard to prove this, but I feel a big variable causing a difference in stats can be QB play and scheme. I mean, how can Breno and James Carpenter go from a part of the problem in Seattle to a reason for success with the Jets within a couple years?

I don't say this as a negative; a QB who will risk throws to avoid sacks helps the sack column, but it will show up on the interception stats. Just that there are variables besides the obvious for why the stats are the way they are.