Seahawks struggle in October

I made a post about this last year at the end of October, but this year I wanted to bring it up again as a pre-emptive strike. Maybe just to prepare myself, or try to prepare others who are talking about running the table the rest of the year...I don't know. But this is a real trend, regardless of the schedule or the opponent.

I don't really know why they play bad in October, but they do. Ever since Carroll got here, look at their records in October:

2014: 2-2
W over Redskins 27-17
L to Cowboys 30-23
L to Rams 28-26
W over Panthers 13-9

Our worst month of the season last year, and you will see that is a common thread in every year Pete Carroll has been here. October is always the worst month of the Seahawk season. I don’t know why, but it is true. Those Cowboys and Rams games were so frustrating because it felt like the Seahawks were not playing their brand of football at all.

2013: 3-1
L to Colts 34-28
W over Titans 20-13
W over Cardinals 34-22
W over Rams 14-9

This was probably our worst month in our SB season. Experienced our first loss, played one of our most sloppy games of the year against the Titans (fortunate to win at home) and had that horrible Monday Night game against the Rams that we were fortunate to escape with a win as well. The Cardinals game we won handily, but even then our D gave up 22, which was the 3rd highest total they gave up all year. Record was good in the end, but the performance on the field was not.

2012: 2-2
W over Panthers 16-12
W over Patriots 24-23
L to 49ers 13-6
L to Lions 28-24

The Panthers game, 49ers game, and Lions game were excruciating to watch. Seattle did not play well in those games. The Patriots game was exciting and we came out on top, but we were losing for the majority of the game. Performance-wise, this was our worst month in 2012.

I don't pay too much attention to 2011 or 2010 because that is before Russell Wilson got here, but the October struggles remain.

2011: 1-3
L to Falcons 30-28
W over Giants 36-25
BYE
L to Browns 6-3
L to Bengals 34-12

Painful collapse against the Falcons. Browns game was horrible, with Charlie Whitehurst proving he would never be a starting QB and the winning Leon Washington return inexplicably called back. One of our last blowouts we've experienced to the Bengals.

2010: 2-2
L to Rams 20-3
BYE
W over Bears 23-20
W over Cardinals 22-10
L to Raiders 33-3

Destroyed by Rams and Raiders. (and got blown out 41-7 by the Giants on November 7th)

Again, I don't know the reason, but you only have to look at the records and the scores to see that we have probably played our worst football in the Pete Carroll era in the month of October. I feel like this season is different in the fact that we are already struggling.

If anyone knows a good reason why, I would love to hear it, but I have hope that if we can survive until November, things will turn around. Maybe the Seahawks mirror their in-game performance with their season long performance: bad first half, great second half. The Seahawks have struggled in October for years, this isn't new. They can turn it around just like they have every other time.

Here are the records broken down by month since Pete took over. October is the only month the Seahawks are not over .500 (other than 2 games in January) and as I detailed above, October includes some of our worst losses and least impressive wins. The thing I look at for hope this year is Pete Carroll teams finish strong in December usually. Look at those November and December records (9-1 last year).

We have played more games in December than any other month because we don't have bye weeks in December, yet we have fewer losses than October.

September: 12-8 (including this year)

October: 10-10

November: 12-7

December: 16-6

January (Regular Season): 1-1

I would love to see the Hawks buck the trend and go undefeated this month. But because of our history in the Pete Carroll era, I am going to prepare myself to be frustrated a few Sundays this month.

We are going to need a bit of a stellar october this time around though. We still have to face Arizona twice as well as swing games against the Steelers and the Vikings. If we go 2-2 this october we'd be 3-4 and would have to win 7/8 out of 9 remaining games to have a realistic chance at play-offs. I'm hoping for at least a 3-1 month but 4-0 would of course be amazing.

This year could be different.

JAGHAWK":1pcoidjv said:

This year could be different.

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And I sincerely hope it is. I hope next year I won't have to remind myself of the Seahawks history because they threw the trend out the window this season.

Meh. Interesting data, but so what? I figure if we finish October and are within a game of .500 we're doing fine. Hell, most years, if we get to Thanksgiving at .500 a good December will get us at least into the playoffs.

Color me not worried.......yet.

Thank you for taking the time to break this out, I know it wasn't quick or easy. These are the reasons this place is excellent

sutz":vj42t46a said:

Meh. Interesting data, but so what? I figure if we finish October and are within a game of .500 we're doing fine. Hell, most years, if we get to Thanksgiving at .500 a good December will get us at least into the playoffs.

Color me not worried.......yet.

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This response is really going to inspire the OP to post more interesting data analysis....sarcasm off

I blame the pink gloves.

Look at the schedule...if we don't at least finish October 3-1...we're in trouble...

Seanhawk":2jlel6bv said:

I blame the pink gloves.

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haha this all started honestly because I remember the Seahawks always struggle when they wear pink. I know there is no real correlation, but I always dread the pink month because of that.

Everyone knows this team was a disaster in 2010 and 2011.

But from 2012 and onwards...I don't call losing to tough teams by less than a touchdown "struggling". Each of those teams just had one more play up their sleeve than we did. It's the exact same razor's edge we've walked since we found a competent QB. When we find that extra play, we win. In October, it just happens that we don't often find it for some reason.

Not really a good reason, but October may be bedeviled by Halloween spirits.

My best guess is that the trouble in October might be caused by injuries to positions not yet strongly backed up by young players still being trained, who then become better in November and thereafter.

7-5 in the Wilson era and a combined margin of defeat of 26 points in those losses. First world "problems" in October... I do appreciate the OP's analysis , but I also wonder how many teams in the last three Octobers have lost by as much in ONE game as we have lost by in five?

MontanaHawk05":3u4to1sr said:

Everyone knows this team was a disaster in 2010 and 2011.

But from 2012 and onwards...I don't call losing to tough teams by less than a touchdown "struggling". Each of those teams just had one more play up their sleeve than we did. It's the exact same razor's edge we've walked since we found a competent QB. When we find that extra play, we win. In October, it just happens that we don't often find it for some reason.

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It's not just struggling to beat good teams though. The Seahawks have struggled against bad teams too. For example, the Titans were not good in 2013. People were talking before that Titans game the same way people were talking before the Bears game. The Seahawks were very close to throwing that game away.

But the point isn't who the opponents were. The point is that if you look back over the Pete Carroll era, the Seahawks have played their worst football every year in October, regardless of opponent. Every year. And that didn't change from the time the team was a "disaster" in 2010 or 2011 to the time the team was the best in the NFL.

HawkFan72":2cf37jaj said:

MontanaHawk05":2cf37jaj said:

Everyone knows this team was a disaster in 2010 and 2011.

But from 2012 and onwards...I don't call losing to tough teams by less than a touchdown "struggling". Each of those teams just had one more play up their sleeve than we did. It's the exact same razor's edge we've walked since we found a competent QB. When we find that extra play, we win. In October, it just happens that we don't often find it for some reason.

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It's not just struggling to beat good teams though. The Seahawks have struggled against bad teams too. For example, the Titans were not good in 2013. People were talking before that Titans game the same way people were talking before the Bears game. The Seahawks were very close to throwing that game away.

But the point isn't who the opponents were. The point is that if you look back over the Pete Carroll era, the Seahawks have played their worst football every year in October, regardless of opponent. Every year. And that didn't change from the time the team was a "disaster" in 2010 or 2011 to the time the team was the best in the NFL.

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I don't necessarily disagree with the idea that the Hawks have struggled in October, but I do disagree with the idea that they struggled against the Titans in 2013. As I recall, the major reason the game was close is that Chris Maragos completely screwed the pooch on an end-of-half field goal, which ended up being returned for a touchdown the other way. That's a 10-point swing right there, in a game that they won by 7 points in the end. I think they outgained the Titans by something like 200 yards, and DVOA for that game was also very lopsided.

Also, I think Maragos was only in a position to screw up like that because Jon Ryan got hurt and couldn't be the holder for that snap. Just a super flukey play. Tampa Bay that year would be the best example of them struggling against a bad team, seeing as how that team was 0-8 coming in.

Seanhawk":3e5wdo6r said:

I blame the pink gloves.

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I hate pink October. My belief is that it takes about 6 weeks for the offense to catch up with the defense, chemistry wise. That's why the NFL is painful to watch at the beginning of the season, sloppy, ton of errors, etc.

Sure can't afford a bad October this year.. that would all but bury them

I think the schedule sets us up for 3-1 at worst though.. 4-0 if they beat Cincy

JAGHAWK":fuyfc633 said:

This year could be different.

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I hope we had our October is September this year.

We'll see. We don't really have the luxury to struggle too much from here on out.