I initially looked at these stats to see if the type of target Russell throws to might provide an indication of whether or not height has a significant role in when he does/does not throw over the middle. My thought was that if Russell does have big problems with vision behind the line, his accuracy must suffer in this area and he'd likely prefer taller targets (like TEs).
That said, I'll just post the stats and let you decide if they're worthless. First, I thought that I'd provide a bit of comparison to other QBs who are not nicknamed "Willow" on opposing team forums.
From 2012-2015, here are the top 10 rated passers when throwing to the short middle of the field (qualifier of 100+ attempts to that zone):
* League Averages are not filtered with 100+ qualifier. I didn't have the means to filter and get totals without taking more time.
Clearly he has the fewest attempts. He and Kaepernick are the outliers in that regard but both are very accurate when throwing to the short middle.
What about his targets. Who is he throwing to?
Well, he's targeting receivers a lot more than any other position group but is accurate when throwing to all three. I had actually expected to see a higher number of targets to TEs over the middle if height were the issue. Maybe one of you former QB's or coaches can speak to this.
Nothing jumps out at me based on individual player targets aside from the low completion percentage to Doug. Might be worth digging into to find out who he targets on 3rd down but in any case, the guy's spreading the ball around when he goes to the middle and he's not missing very much.
What's the big deal?
If he can't see, wouldn't he miss more when he does throw to the middle? Wouldn't he favor bigger targets like Willson or Kearse?
Is it possible that he's coached not to throw it over the middle unless it's an easy completion due to higher INT rates across the middle?
League wide figures for the same timeframe:
We don't see a lot of shallow crossing routes and slants like you will find with Manning and Brady. Is that Bevell or is that compensation for Wilson's height?
I don't see an indicator in the numbers that say it's Wilson's height. I'm not saying that it isn't his height, I'm just saying that his height doesn't seem to impact his accuracy at all.
I've read about him bailing out of the pocket because he can't see but how much of that has to do with his OL being pushed back into his face for example?
I'd happily concede that I don't know. I just don't see a red flag in what he's actually done and that surprised me given how much attention this gets.
[edit] How much do we miss Zach Miller? Sheesh... That guy was vital to how our offense runs imo.
That said, I'll just post the stats and let you decide if they're worthless. First, I thought that I'd provide a bit of comparison to other QBs who are not nicknamed "Willow" on opposing team forums.
From 2012-2015, here are the top 10 rated passers when throwing to the short middle of the field (qualifier of 100+ attempts to that zone):
Name | Cmp | Att (% of Ttl) | Cmp% | Yds | TD | Int | Y/A | Rating |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aaron Rodgers | 197 | 266 (19.1) | 74.1 | 2373 | 24 | 4 | 8.9 | 124.8 |
Peyton Manning | 233 | 320 (16.6) | 72.8 | 2303 | 25 | 5 | 7.2 | 112.3 |
Alex Smith | 145 | 212 (16.9) | 68.4 | 1618 | 14 | 2 | 7.6 | 109 |
Tom Brady | 277 | 399 (21.1) | 69.4 | 3216 | 23 | 4 | 8.1 | 108.6 |
Russell Wilson | 113 | 160 (12.3) | 70.6 | 1193 | 11 | 3 | 7.5 | 107.1 |
Colin Kaepernick | 124 | 164 (14.4) | 75.6 | 1412 | 5 | 2 | 8.6 | 106 |
Drew Brees | 267 | 367 (18.0) | 72.8 | 3039 | 18 | 9 | 8.3 | 103.3 |
Ryan Fitzpatrick | 175 | 245 (20.4) | 71.4 | 1895 | 14 | 6 | 7.7 | 102.7 |
Eli Manning | 269 | 383 (22.1) | 70.2 | 2978 | 22 | 9 | 7.8 | 102.4 |
*League Avg | 159 | 231 (18.7) | 68.8 | 1716 | 11.7 | 5.1 | 7.2 | 95.5 |
Clearly he has the fewest attempts. He and Kaepernick are the outliers in that regard but both are very accurate when throwing to the short middle.
What about his targets. Who is he throwing to?
Position | T | C | Pct | Yds | TD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
WR | 88 | 58 | 65.91% | 684 | 7 |
TE | 37 | 27 | 72.97% | 276 | 1 |
RB | 34 | 28 | 82.35% | 233 | 3 |
Well, he's targeting receivers a lot more than any other position group but is accurate when throwing to all three. I had actually expected to see a higher number of targets to TEs over the middle if height were the issue. Maybe one of you former QB's or coaches can speak to this.
T | C | Pct | Yds | TD | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Doug Baldwin | 29 | 19 | 65.50% | 254 | 2 |
Zach Miller | 22 | 18 | 81.80% | 167 | 1 |
Marshawn Lynch | 23 | 20 | 87.00% | 136 | 3 |
Golden Tate | 16 | 10 | 62.50% | 116 | 1 |
Sidney Rice | 14 | 10 | 71.40% | 109 | 2 |
Jermaine Kearse | 14 | 7 | 50.00% | 100 | 1 |
Robert Turbin | 7 | 6 | 85.70% | 82 | 0 |
Paul Richardson | 7 | 5 | 71.40% | 48 | 1 |
Luke Willson | 5 | 4 | 80.00% | 35 | 0 |
Jimmy Graham | 3 | 2 | 66.70% | 30 | 0 |
Anthony McCoy | 2 | 2 | 100.00% | 27 | 0 |
Ricardo Lockette | 3 | 2 | 66.70% | 24 | 0 |
Tony Moeaki | 2 | 1 | 50.00% | 17 | 0 |
Percy Harvin | 2 | 2 | 100.00% | 15 | 0 |
Leon Washington | 3 | 2 | 66.70% | 15 | 0 |
Bryan Walters | 1 | 1 | 100.00% | 11 | 0 |
Charly Martin | 1 | 1 | 100.00% | 4 | 0 |
Kevin Norwood | 1 | 1 | 100.00% | 3 | 0 |
Cooper Helfet | 3 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 |
Michael Robinson | 1 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 |
Evan Moore | 1 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 |
Totals | 160 | 113 | 70.60% | 1193 | 11 |
What's the big deal?
If he can't see, wouldn't he miss more when he does throw to the middle? Wouldn't he favor bigger targets like Willson or Kearse?
Is it possible that he's coached not to throw it over the middle unless it's an easy completion due to higher INT rates across the middle?
League wide figures for the same timeframe:
Location | Comp | Att | Comp% | Int (Int %) |
---|---|---|---|---|
Short Left | 10826 | 15945 | 67.9% | 263 (01.6) |
Short Middle | 7076 | 10291 | 68.8% | 249 (02.4) |
Short Right | 11899 | 17743 | 67.1% | 289 (01.6) |
Deep Left | 1361 | 3699 | 36.8% | 191 (05.1) |
Deep Middle | 1152 | 2380 | 48.4% | 196 (08.2) |
Deep Right | 1548 | 4051 | 38.2% | 217 (05.3) |
We don't see a lot of shallow crossing routes and slants like you will find with Manning and Brady. Is that Bevell or is that compensation for Wilson's height?
I don't see an indicator in the numbers that say it's Wilson's height. I'm not saying that it isn't his height, I'm just saying that his height doesn't seem to impact his accuracy at all.
I've read about him bailing out of the pocket because he can't see but how much of that has to do with his OL being pushed back into his face for example?
I'd happily concede that I don't know. I just don't see a red flag in what he's actually done and that surprised me given how much attention this gets.
[edit] How much do we miss Zach Miller? Sheesh... That guy was vital to how our offense runs imo.