RW passing to the short middle

I initially looked at these stats to see if the type of target Russell throws to might provide an indication of whether or not height has a significant role in when he does/does not throw over the middle. My thought was that if Russell does have big problems with vision behind the line, his accuracy must suffer in this area and he'd likely prefer taller targets (like TEs).

That said, I'll just post the stats and let you decide if they're worthless. First, I thought that I'd provide a bit of comparison to other QBs who are not nicknamed "Willow" on opposing team forums.

From 2012-2015, here are the top 10 rated passers when throwing to the short middle of the field (qualifier of 100+ attempts to that zone):

* League Averages are not filtered with 100+ qualifier. I didn't have the means to filter and get totals without taking more time.

Clearly he has the fewest attempts. He and Kaepernick are the outliers in that regard but both are very accurate when throwing to the short middle.

What about his targets. Who is he throwing to?


Well, he's targeting receivers a lot more than any other position group but is accurate when throwing to all three. I had actually expected to see a higher number of targets to TEs over the middle if height were the issue. Maybe one of you former QB's or coaches can speak to this.

Nothing jumps out at me based on individual player targets aside from the low completion percentage to Doug. Might be worth digging into to find out who he targets on 3rd down but in any case, the guy's spreading the ball around when he goes to the middle and he's not missing very much.

What's the big deal?

If he can't see, wouldn't he miss more when he does throw to the middle? Wouldn't he favor bigger targets like Willson or Kearse?

Is it possible that he's coached not to throw it over the middle unless it's an easy completion due to higher INT rates across the middle?

League wide figures for the same timeframe:

We don't see a lot of shallow crossing routes and slants like you will find with Manning and Brady. Is that Bevell or is that compensation for Wilson's height?

I don't see an indicator in the numbers that say it's Wilson's height. I'm not saying that it isn't his height, I'm just saying that his height doesn't seem to impact his accuracy at all.

I've read about him bailing out of the pocket because he can't see but how much of that has to do with his OL being pushed back into his face for example?

I'd happily concede that I don't know. I just don't see a red flag in what he's actually done and that surprised me given how much attention this gets.

[edit] How much do we miss Zach Miller? Sheesh... That guy was vital to how our offense runs imo.

Great post one stat that would help it would be number of passing attempts overall during the same time period. Reason would be that if example Rodgers throws twice as many passes as RW and twice as many over the middle then there is a 1:1 ratio and RW goes over the middle as much as they do compared to his overall passing numbers

Right now to me the numbers simply indicate that he is good at throwing over the middle

I don't think it has ever been a can't thing. Sometimes for Russ it is won't thing, and frankly we don't use the short middle for very many routes anyway.

I think the stats at least agree with those notions.

I don't have the time to look over everything you posted but I always get frustrated with Wilson's lack of attempts over the middle, seems like everything is to the outside, then you watch Brady and Rogers just check it to a TE or RB over the middle with ease for an quick 5-8 yards. I do think it's largely because of his height. Frustrating to watch sometimes.

mikeak":1z39vtlu said:

Great post one stat that would help it would be number of passing attempts overall during the same time period. Reason would be that if example Rodgers throws twice as many passes as RW and twice as many over the middle then there is a 1:1 ratio and RW goes over the middle as much as they do compared to his overall passing numbers

Right now to me the numbers simply indicate that he is good at throwing over the middle

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Updated OP with % of total attempts in the same column as attempts. Thanks for the suggestion and it does show that Wilson has the lowest of the 10 with Kaepernick being a close 2nd.

Not sure what can be taken from it other than what Scotte mentioned in that we don't exactly run as many routes through there.

Wasn't there a color graph on here awhile back showing his tendencies?

scutterhawk":344dl2kp said:

Wasn't there a color graph on here awhile back showing his tendencies?

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I couldn't find one which is why I did all this lol. Maybe I should have asked before taking the time.

It's all speculation, but wouldn't the extremely low attempt numbers still suggest he doesn't see the area well?

The high efficiency only suggests to me that he throws there only when it's completely visible to him. I mean, it's not color blindness -- i.e. he can see it if it's not obstructed. I'm sure there are times when he can see the area fine, particularly to RBs on checkdowns and screens. My guess is that the numbers on short crossing routes aren't too favorable compared to maybe a screen or a hitch.

For Kaep, I think his low attempts relate to a mechanical issue, as his short area touch has always been pretty bad. I wonder if Alex had more attempts in that area.

These are cool stats. Thanks for providing.

DavidSeven":2798w0sg said:

It's all speculation, but wouldn't the extremely low attempt numbers still suggest he doesn't see the area well?

The high efficiency only suggests to me that he throws there only when it's completely visible to him. I mean, it's not color blindness -- i.e. he can see it if it's not obstructed. I'm sure there are times when he can see the area fine, particularly to RBs on checkdowns and screens. My guess is that the numbers on short crossing routes aren't too favorable compared to maybe a screen or a hitch.

For Kaep, I think his low attempts relate to a mechanical issue, as his short area touch has always been pretty bad. I wonder if Alex had more attempts in that area.

These are cool stats. Thanks for providing.

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And two inches is the difference between 18% (Drew Brees) and 12%? I guess that's where I have to really defer to former QBs and coaches. To me it seems like a pretty small difference in height and what they'd be able to see.

Thanks for the chart good stuff.

I'm not sure it's he can't see an open receiver down the middle or the type of pass that needs to be thrown.

I notice qb's throwing short down the middle has to be a very bee line pass. Most QB's can do it since they are tall enough and can throw over over defenders and Offensive linemen's heads. Russell being shorter, has to arc the ball somewhat and when he needs to put a slight trajectory on the ball, he needs to throw it a little slower to achieve that.

Thing is, you can't throw a slower ball across the middle. So the only time Wilson will throw across the middle is when there is a clear gap and he can zip it.

Well thats my theory anyway.

Laloosh":7xuzfuox said:

And two inches is the difference between 18% (Drew Brees) and 12%? I guess that's where I have to really defer to former QBs and coaches. To me it seems like a pretty small difference in height and what they'd be able to see.

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Yeah, I always wondered about that too, though I also always assumed New Orleans spent a ton of money at both guard positions to enhance Brees' line of vision (guys who weren't too tall either). Before they had to make cap cuts, Jahri Evans and Ben Grubbs were their two highest paid linemen and they were both guards. Rare to see that on a pass-heavy team.

DavidSeven":23uw0s1n said:

Laloosh":23uw0s1n said:

And two inches is the difference between 18% (Drew Brees) and 12%? I guess that's where I have to really defer to former QBs and coaches. To me it seems like a pretty small difference in height and what they'd be able to see.

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Yeah, I always wondered about that too, though I also always assumed New Orleans spent a ton of money at both guard positions to enhance Brees' line of vision (guys who weren't too tall either). Before they had to make cap cuts, Jahri Evans and Ben Grubbs were their two highest paid linemen and they were both guards. Rare to see that on a pass-heavy team.

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I was going to post this, Drew Brees is spectacular at getting to his throwing lanes, and his line is spectacular at creating them. THe guards in particular.

Russ is not in a precision, ball out, timing offense. This is a read and react big play offense. neither trait contributes to a lot of short middle plays. Add to that the risk averse nature of both QB and HC, and I think the pass distribution and target chart looks the way it does by both process and nature.

Scottemojo":2eumm31q said:

I don't think it has ever been a can't thing. Sometimes for Russ it is won't thing, and frankly we don't use the short middle for very many routes anyway.

I think the stats at least agree with those notions.

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Isn't this by design? I thought Pete wanted to throw outside the hashes, or even the numbers, for ball-control (turnover) reasons. I'm pretty sure I've complained about it before.

Sarlacc83":2m2d3av7 said:

Scottemojo":2m2d3av7 said:

I don't think it has ever been a can't thing. Sometimes for Russ it is won't thing, and frankly we don't use the short middle for very many routes anyway.

I think the stats at least agree with those notions.

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Isn't this by design? I thought Pete wanted to throw outside the hashes, or even the numbers, for ball-control (turnover) reasons. I'm pretty sure I've complained about it before.

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Part is design. But I have seen Russ ignore enough open players crossing the middle to know it isn't all Pete.

I watched a very short amount of the all 22 and I remember at one point seeing a completion over the middle but he had very clear lanes. Didn't watch or focus on that enough but it may be possible he only throws when the lanes are clear.

In regards to wondering how much of it has to do with the OL being pushed back in his face... I think something to take into account is how much worse does a player like Wilson make his OL?

If Wilson rolls out, as opposed to stepping up into a pocket he's already destroyed the pocket. It seems it would make it more difficult to play OL if you don't always know where your QB is going to be.

Most of the time its Doug Baldwin Wide Open during those "snap shots" over the middle between the hashes.

The middle of the field throws have to be hard and fast so as to not be easily tipped by almost any QB, and I would imagine more difficult for Russ.

What happened to the TE down the seam throws like the one agains Dallass to McCoy a few years ago? those were sweet!

The more I look at this stuff the more I wonder if our coaching isn't screwing up this kids development. I mean I am aware that our staff pretty much made him and now have paid him but it seems like part of the reason Russ is their guy is because he has shown that he will follow what ever game plan they script. If Pete says protect the ball at all cost this kids is going to do that and then some. Throws over the middle tend to be dangerous. Russell is hesitating before he pulls the trigger and that's not too good.

I don't think it's due to height I seem to remember him hitting just fine over the middle at WIsconsin with a line that was bigger than what he has now. Most likely it's just Bevell's route trees and the fact that until now he hasn't had a TE whose hands he can really trust since Zach. I mean Luke dropped another in the endzone vs the Rams so I can understand the reluctance to go to him on a possible contested catch.

Ringless you are getting into a "chicken vs egg " argument there with the oline. I do think a player like Okung would be better served protecting a more statuesque QB like Manning though. With his legs he doesn't move around well as it is and all the the lateral sliding he has to do to protect a mobile guy like Russ must be killing him. It's not a lack of effort so I don't fault him I just believe our current offense would bennifit more from very mobile line men.

randomation":tncct16t said:

I don't think it's due to height I seem to remember him hitting just fine over the middle at WIsconsin with a line that was bigger than what he has now. Most likely it's just Bevell's route trees and the fact that until now he hasn't had a TE whose hands he can really trust since Zach. I mean Luke dropped another in the endzone vs the Rams so I can understand the reluctance to go to him on a possible contested catch.

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This. Coaching and personnel. Russell Wilson has no problem throwing over the middle.