How do you guys feel about the 2015 team before FA/Draft?

kearly

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What kind of offseason are you expecting? What kind of draft are you expecting? What kind of team do you think we'll have in 2015? Obviously, we'll have to revisit this after the offseason is over, but I thought it would be fun to talk about what we think will happen in this moment in time.

What kind of offseason am I expecting?

I think the first question is the hardest for me, because it definitely feels like Seattle is preparing to make a run of some kind in free agency despite the contract situations with Wilson, Lynch and Wagner. I think PC/JS are very aware of the unusually good FA class this year coupled with the fact that the salary cap is currently rising every year at historic rates. There is sound reasoning in Seattle staying put, but I just get the feeling that PC/JS are planning to make 2015 a spendy year.

Maybe that means landing Suh. Maybe that means trading for Marshall. Maybe that means signing Julius Thomas or Jordan Cameron. Maybe that means keeping Byron Maxwell. Maybe that means they look into Dez Bryant, or if the Lynch negotiations stall very badly, perhaps AP or Murray. I think the Seahawks are going to be "in on" a lot of potential deals on March 10th, and the deals that fall their way will likely be the ones that Seattle signs. They'll even be in on some deals that don't make a lot of sense on the surface, because JS isn't afraid to kick the tires just to see what happens.

What makes this question hard is that not all of these scenarios are equal. For example, landing Suh would probably cost roughly the same amount of money as trading for Brandon Marshall plus signing Julius Thomas, but I would be significantly more excited about a Suh in Seattle scenario. Marshall and Thomas would be high end accessories, but Suh would be transformative. Which is amazing to think about, given where Seattle's defense is currently.

Ultimately, I do think Seattle is going to have an exciting FA period this year, probably the most exciting since 2013. So far, PC/JS have remained relatively dormant in FA during even numbered years (2010, 2012, 2014) but have been big spenders in the odd years (2011, 2013). I don't know if that means we're getting Suh, but I do think Seattle will probably land at least one big name free agent this Spring.

I think Lynch is in "he don't give a you-know-what" mode right now, but I think he'll sign an extension with Seattle sometime this offseason.

What kind of draft am I expecting?

Like a lot of people, I think this draft will basically be a repeat of last year. Seattle will probably trade out of the 1st round and it won't require a big offer to do it. I think Seattle will generally let players come to them instead of fighting the board, which means getting a lot of Jordan Hill and Kevin Norwood type picks through the first several rounds (guys that were basically the last of their respective 'tiers" when Seattle drafted them).

However, I do think that Seattle will look to add a WR this year. Even if they traded for Marshall I'd still expect them to draft a WR, given that the FA / trade period options at WR are mostly past their prime. I think they will also look at OL. And possibly RB, depending on Lynch.

This draft is incredibly weak at safety and not much better at corner (Seattle only drafts corners with 32+" arms, and the list of those players who are draftable is very short this year). This is actually my top concern this offseason, as Maxwell is likely gone and most of the LOB is having surgery or recovering from serious long term injuries. Some people have mentioned Will Blackmon and Walter Thurmond, but Thurmond is tough to depend on and Blackmon turns 31 during the 2015 season.

In conclusion, my expectation for this draft is that Seattle will draft some nice redshirt role players at positions of strength ala Jordan Hill types, but will probably struggle to fill some of the teams bigger holes through the draft. It should be interesting to see what they do to address KR/PR, as both areas were incredibly weak last season.

What kind of team do I think we'll have in 2015?

I think we've actually been very lucky with injuries in the secondary. Sherman and Earl Thomas seem to save their injuries for late in the year when they can tough it out to the end. I think there are some similarities between Thomas and Bob Sanders and my #1 worry for 2015 is that this could be the year Earl finally misses significant time. With Jeron Johnson possibly moving on in FA, and with the draft looking terrible at safety, this is something that keeps me up at night a bit. Without Earl Seattle is probably a 10 win team at best.

My bright spot for next season would have been Paul Richardson and the development of the quick hit passing game. But Richardson is basically entering next season in a similar situation that Navarro Bowman had last year, and Bowman ended up never even playing a down in 2014. Richardson will probably miss time, and even if he does play, he's going to be at maybe 80%.

Because of this, WR is a concern, and if Seattle ALSO lost Lynch somehow, Seattle would probably be in a dogfight with Arizona for the division. I think Seattle will probably land a significant contributor in the passing game, especially if they miss out on Suh and have some cash available.

I actually feel okay about the offensive line, though depth needs to be added. Basically areas like OL, DL, and LB are not a concern for me because I think our starters are already good enough and I trust JS to draft good backups in the draft.

Interior pass rush is a concern, but if Seattle gets Suh or if they get lucky with guys like Marsh... I just have a hunch this hole will be addressed.

KR/PR is a problem and I have a hunch it will remain a problem for longer than we'd like.

Overall, the team I'm realistically expecting Seattle to field is probably a 10-12 win team. For the first time in a while, it feels like this team has some real holes to fill and filling them could be easier said than done this offseason. The positive spin on this is that this also opens up opportunity for a draft pick to contribute right away, or for a player like Suh to make a huge difference. Maybe a guy like Will Blackmon still has one more good year in the tank on the cheap? Maybe Seattle gets lucky and their 1st round pick WR also happens to be an ace return man. There is some opportunity for getting lucky this offseason more than in the past.

Basically, I think as things stand Seattle will likely decline in 2015, but an exciting offseason could change that. And this offseason feels like it has a better than average chance of being exciting.
 

Northhawk

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Was going to do a similar post. Would have agreed a 100% with you a couple weeks ago but now I don't think we'll land a big FA. I suspect we'll look at 2nd and 3rd tier FAs at WR, TE and DT and rely on the draft. If we step out and go big it might be at Julius Thomas but I think we'll try to pick up FAs with something prove -- seems to be the model we're following.

Agree with the rest, especially worried about the secondary.
 

Marlin Man

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Seems there is a lot going on out "there", but have read ZERO from Seattle????? Are they golfing or doing something that will blow us away? I sure hope we address the lack of pass rush I watched in the last two games. Yeah, yeah, yeah, we got to the SB, but man, there still was NO passrush

M.M.
 

hawksfansinceday1

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I see a big pass catcher FA signing, Demaryis Thomas or Julius Thomas or a trade for Marshall. I don't think Pete and John are ever going to give up on getting that guy. Even if Sidney declined too soon and Harvin flamed out, they've shown that it's a piece they covet and there's good players out there waiting to be had this offseason. The only question will be whether any of them want to come to a team that doesn't exactly fill the air with footballs.

Marshawn signs a 2 year extension (and doesn't fall off the RB cliff even year after next at age 30).

I think they do better than you suspect shoring up the KR/PR positions likely through the draft.

I agree the secondary is a concern. I think B-Max is gone and it will hurt though I'd LOVE to be wrong. And, John did say they were going to give full effort to re-sign him so I'm hoping...... I think Earl isn't another Bob Sanders but that there will be a slight drop off. Nobody tests Sherm all year cuz Simon ends up being easy pickins in comparison if Max isn't back. May not matter though if we sign Suh cuz opposing QBs ain't gonna have shit for time to throw.

Likely 11 or 12 wins (I don't think we sign Suh) and fighting for a Super Bowl berth in the playoffs.
 

MontanaHawk05

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I feel fine.

We probably would have won it all if we'd had either of Brandon Mebane or Jordan Hill.
 

haroldseattle

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Don't expect a splash in the free agent market. Got too many players that need extensions. The draft is key, because the Seahawks have a lot of picks this year and after the last two drafts, they need to ace this one. It would be nice to have the first pick be gold. It's been a bit since that has happen.
 

Jville

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Losing Maxwell will hurt IMO. I value him and his inside/outside versatility. With Lane's injury, I think the Seahawks have little choice but to address outside and inside cornerback needs.

Outside of a corner back possibility, I do not expect them to be aggressive in the first couple of weeks of free agency. I don't think they are going to get involved in any bidding wars. I expect them to be patient and focus on value. I do expect plenty of movement among veterans ..... so there will be opportunities.

I do not expect them to hold up their planning forever while waiting on an answer from Marshawn Lynch. So, his decision or non decision should have a pivotal planning date. I just don't expect the team to be held hostage again this year ... by anyone. I think there will be a heighten emphasis on the "all in" mandate.

I liked their 2014 draft in response to the 2013 off season moves. I thought their 2014 draft class was more mature and solid than the 2013 class. I'm looking for a balanced off season and a draft that leverages the competition. The Seahawks are a player development team ... so the rookie class is always the important addition.

The evolution of the offense was stunted and narrowed last year. The return of their more versatile #1 tight end and #1 full back will broaden their offense. I do not expect to hear about as much internal chaos this year. I expect a balanced draft class that will intensify the competition. There should be less tolerance for projects with chronic weight, conditioning and developmental issues. I expect the offense to evolve to a next level sometime in November.

The defensive backfield has lost talent and experience at a degrading rate. The defensive coaching staff has also taken some heavy hit. I'm still awaiting announcements regarding a couple assistant coaching positions. I do not expect the defense to start as strong this year. In fact, I expect this board to express considerable concern about the Seahawk defense in September and October. I do think the defense will play better as the season progresses. But, I don't expect it to play at as dominate a level as in the 2013 or 2014 campaigns.

Return blocking was a problem in 2014. I expect that and other needs of special teams to be strongly addressed. IMHO, reloading depth and reloading special teams will be an underlying theme for 2015.

I expect the 2015 Seahawks to start slow ...... and then finish strong. Their record will be governed by when the coaching staff and players all comes together.
 
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kearly

kearly

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MontanaHawk05":1xpdjcu5 said:
We probably would have won it all if we'd had either of Brandon Mebane or Jordan Hill.

And if, you know, one play(call) had gone differently. Sorry, someone had to say it.

I get what you are saying Montana, but next year's team won't be 2014's team. Next year's schedule won't be 2014's schedule. I don't think you can really just look at last season and think next season will have the same feel. The franchise has a slight "unraveling" vibe to it right now. Doesn't mean a great offseason can't fix that, but for the first time in a while, I think Seattle could take a step back this year if they don't have a pretty strong offseason.
 

HawkFan72

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My biggest concern is the secondary. If they can shore up depth there, I will feel good about the team going into the season with their draft picks. I am hopeful they will make a big splash for a WR.
 
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kearly

kearly

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haroldseattle":1v7storo said:
Don't expect a splash in the free agent market. Got to many players that need extensions. The draft is key, because the Seahawks have a lot of picks this year and after the last two drafts, they need to ace this one. It would be nice to have the first pick be gold. It's been a bit since that has happen.

The cap increases are a bit of a game changer on the free agency front. If the cap was static then of course, Seattle would be struggling just to sign their own guys. But with the cap raising by over $10 million a year, Seattle is in a position of having plenty of room in 2016 and 2017 even with all their guys retained.
 

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Just curious here about the draft.
You have noted that you think the Hawks my move down again as last year and the year before.

Do you believe we are about quantity, the more we throw on the wall the more will stick?

See, I realize that has been the trend, but that started when Pete and John were clearing house and we needed a lot of bodies, I mean we had, what a record number of signings, in 's and outs? That is not the case anymore. I don't want to see these draft choices wasted, they are to valuable to gamble on someone down the line,who may or may not make it.

We have a full roster with very few spaces for players to make the team. Why would we not want the best available at that spot that we have, in fact, why wouldn't we want to trade up, giving up some picks that we have?

I'm all for Quality over quantity.ever time, and I do realize that the draft is a crap shoot, but, it is a weighted crap shoot.
 

HawkFan72

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Jville":3vo2vgu8 said:
The defensive backfield has lost talent and experience at a degrading rate. The defensive coaching staff has also taken some heavy hit. I'm still awaiting announcements regarding a couple assistant coaching positions. I do not expect the defense to start as strong this year. In fact, I expect this board to express considerable concern about the Seahawk defense in September and October. I do think the defense will play better as the season progresses. But, I don't expect it to play at as dominate a level as in the 2013 or 2014 campaigns.

Return blocking was a problem in 2014. I expect that and other needs of special teams to be strongly addressed. IMHO, reloading depth and reloading special teams will be an underlying theme for 2015.

I expect the 2015 Seahawks to start slow ...... and then finish strong. Their record will be governed by when the coaching staff and players all comes together.

Great post.

Specifically the part about starting slow next year, I expect the same. It will be important for us to remember that the Seahawks Defense had a lot of struggles in September and October during the 2014 season as well, even before Bobby Wagner got hurt. With the LOB banged up, it probably will get a bit worse. Then in the last half of the year they will find their groove.
 
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kearly

kearly

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Jville":3u3x7q1f said:
I do not expect them to hold up their planning forever while waiting on an answer from Marshawn Lynch. So, his decision or non decision should have a pivotal planning date. I just don't expect the team to be held hostage again this year ... by anyone. I think there will be a heighten emphasis on the "all in" mandate.

I liked their 2014 draft in response to the 2013 off season moves. I thought their 2014 draft class was more mature and solid than the 2013 class. I'm looking for a balanced off season and a draft that leverages the competition. The Seahawks are a player development team ... so the rookie class is always the important addition.

The 2014 draft had a bit of a Tim Ruskell feel to it, oddly enough. A lot of Eagle Scout types in that group. A lot of scrappy nice guys. And the late rounds? Totally bombed. I think that is the draft Seattle probably wants back more than 2013, which has already produced some good or interesting players (Hill, Simon, Willson, Bailey (UDFA), Michael). Depending on Michael, we might see as many as 5 starters come out of the 2013 draft, so I'd say it's under-rated at this point.

I sort of agree with you about Lynch, Seattle does appear to be setting a time table with him. However, it is also equally clear that Seattle is desperate to keep him. Not only the huge offer they made him, but that they have made this offer public and have essentially pleaded with Marshawn through the media. It reeks of desperation. I think PC/JS are already in a hostage situation, they could play hardball but badly want to avoid it. Quite frankly, our team's Super Bowl aspirations would be in serious trouble without Marshawn right now, and PC/JS know it. And Lynch knows it too.

I think the 2015 draft's RB class is awesome, but I also think that JS's insinuations of drafting a RB if Lynch doesn't sign is much more of a negotiating tactic for Lynch than something he'd actually want to do.
 

Jville

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kearly":qnwongzm said:
Jville":qnwongzm said:
I liked their 2014 draft in response to the 2013 off season moves. I thought their 2014 draft class was more mature and solid than the 2013 class. I'm looking for a balanced off season and a draft that leverages the competition. The Seahawks are a player development team ... so the rookie class is always the important addition.

The 2014 draft had a bit of a Tim Ruskell feel to it, oddly enough. A lot of Eagle Scout types in that group. A lot of scrappy nice guys. And the late rounds? Totally bombed. I think that is the draft Seattle probably wants back more than 2013, which has already produced some good or interesting players (Hill, Simon, Willson, Bailey (UDFA), Michael). Depending on Michael, we might see as many as 5 starters come out of the 2013 draft, so I'd say it's under-rated at this point.

I suspect my word choice masked my intended meaning. Instead of referring to draft classes I might have been better off contrasting decision criteria of 2013 verses 2014. The 2013 Percy Harvin decision cost 2014 draft capital in addition to the draft capital of 2013. The 2013 body catching Chris Harper pick fooled the Seahawks, 49ers and Packers. I can see how the 2014 Paul Richardson and Kevin Norwood decisions may very well have a Tim Ruskell feel to it .... but, both have good fully developed hands as well as good overall maturity. And that, as it turned out, was something they wanted to add right away.

I think the make up of the criteria they work with is in constant motion. It changes from year to year. They are always learning from their actions and using those lessons to adjust. I expect an altered flavor in draft criteria again this year. One that is a productive follow up and response to 2014 off season moves.

So I intended to contrast decision criteria of 2013 verses 2014. But made a mess of it.
 

Year of The Hawk

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I like what we have even before the draft. Not that I think we cant improve or are perfect. Yes our pass rush hurt late last year but we were hit with injuries pretty bad. Also lets not forget how well our offensive line player in the bowl. IMHO they did pretty good. Now if they can remain consistent to the point where Russell can depend on them well lookout. We have several players that will start coming around next year (particularly receivers). Besides how many people could we draft and expect to come in on our team and make a big splash. It can happen but it would take a special talent. Look at many of our star players now. They took a year or two or three in the system to get where they are now. Lets give the rooks a chance as well. We are drafting for the next year or two away and not as much for the current season. This gives time to develop and learn from the best. Plus by gaining in the draft we are paying way less than expensive free agents. This is a model I think they have set and will keep our team competitive against the cap. But this also gives much more weight on the quality of draft. Yes they took a chance on Percy and missed. I think they would do it again if they had the cap room and found a possible game changer like we thought Percy was. This year cap room is not a luxury we have so I would not look for a big free agent splash.
 

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kearly":37uevr4x said:
haroldseattle":37uevr4x said:
Don't expect a splash in the free agent market. Got to many players that need extensions. The draft is key, because the Seahawks have a lot of picks this year and after the last two drafts, they need to ace this one. It would be nice to have the first pick be gold. It's been a bit since that has happen.

The cap increases are a bit of a game changer on the free agency front. If the cap was static then of course, Seattle would be struggling just to sign their own guys. But with the cap raising by over $10 million a year, Seattle is in a position of having plenty of room in 2016 and 2017 even with all their guys retained.

There is no question that the team will look at FA through the lens well beyond just the 2015 season, but with eye toward 2016 and beyond. Looking at salary cap obligations for 2016 and 2017 - especially with some dead space falling off, and a few contracts coming due - this could be an off-season similar to 2011 where we targeted a few key FA in areas of need. 2015 may feel a bit tight, but even with extensions for Wilson and Wagner, I do not see two or three FA signings as crippling our long term plan
 

Sports Hernia

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kearly":1qm35178 said:
What kind of offseason are you expecting? What kind of draft are you expecting? What kind of team do you think we'll have in 2015? Obviously, we'll have to revisit this after the offseason is over, but I thought it would be fun to talk about what we think will happen in this moment in time.

What kind of offseason am I expecting?

I think the first question is the hardest for me, because it definitely feels like Seattle is preparing to make a run of some kind in free agency despite the contract situations with Wilson, Lynch and Wagner. I think PC/JS are very aware of the unusually good FA class this year coupled with the fact that the salary cap is currently rising every year at historic rates. There is sound reasoning in Seattle staying put, but I just get the feeling that PC/JS are planning to make 2015 a spendy year.

Maybe that means landing Suh. Maybe that means trading for Marshall. Maybe that means signing Julius Thomas or Jordan Cameron. Maybe that means keeping Byron Maxwell. Maybe that means they look into Dez Bryant, or if the Lynch negotiations stall very badly, perhaps AP or Murray. I think the Seahawks are going to be "in on" a lot of potential deals on March 10th, and the deals that fall their way will likely be the ones that Seattle signs. They'll even be in on some deals that don't make a lot of sense on the surface, because JS isn't afraid to kick the tires just to see what happens.

What makes this question hard is that not all of these scenarios are equal. For example, landing Suh would probably cost roughly the same amount of money as trading for Brandon Marshall plus signing Julius Thomas, but I would be significantly more excited about a Suh in Seattle scenario. Marshall and Thomas would be high end accessories, but Suh would be transformative. Which is amazing to think about, given where Seattle's defense is currently.

Ultimately, I do think Seattle is going to have an exciting FA period this year, probably the most exciting since 2013. So far, PC/JS have remained relatively dormant in FA during even numbered years (2010, 2012, 2014) but have been big spenders in the odd years (2011, 2013). I don't know if that means we're getting Suh, but I do think Seattle will probably land at least one big name free agent this Spring.

I think Lynch is in "he don't give a you-know-what" mode right now, but I think he'll sign an extension with Seattle sometime this offseason.

What kind of draft am I expecting?

Like a lot of people, I think this draft will basically be a repeat of last year. Seattle will probably trade out of the 1st round and it won't require a big offer to do it. I think Seattle will generally let players come to them instead of fighting the board, which means getting a lot of Jordan Hill and Kevin Norwood type picks through the first several rounds (guys that were basically the last of their respective 'tiers" when Seattle drafted them).

However, I do think that Seattle will look to add a WR this year. Even if they traded for Marshall I'd still expect them to draft a WR, given that the FA / trade period options at WR are mostly past their prime. I think they will also look at OL. And possibly RB, depending on Lynch.

This draft is incredibly weak at safety and not much better at corner (Seattle only drafts corners with 32+" arms, and the list of those players who are draftable is very short this year). This is actually my top concern this offseason, as Maxwell is likely gone and most of the LOB is having surgery or recovering from serious long term injuries. Some people have mentioned Will Blackmon and Walter Thurmond, but Thurmond is tough to depend on and Blackmon turns 31 during the 2015 season.

In conclusion, my expectation for this draft is that Seattle will draft some nice redshirt role players at positions of strength ala Jordan Hill types, but will probably struggle to fill some of the teams bigger holes through the draft. It should be interesting to see what they do to address KR/PR, as both areas were incredibly weak last season.

What kind of team do I think we'll have in 2015?

I think we've actually been very lucky with injuries in the secondary. Sherman and Earl Thomas seem to save their injuries for late in the year when they can tough it out to the end. I think there are some similarities between Thomas and Bob Sanders and my #1 worry for 2015 is that this could be the year Earl finally misses significant time. With Jeron Johnson possibly moving on in FA, and with the draft looking terrible at safety, this is something that keeps me up at night a bit. Without Earl Seattle is probably a 10 win team at best.

My bright spot for next season would have been Paul Richardson and the development of the quick hit passing game. But Richardson is basically entering next season in a similar situation that Navarro Bowman had last year, and Bowman ended up never even playing a down in 2014. Richardson will probably miss time, and even if he does play, he's going to be at maybe 80%.

Because of this, WR is a concern, and if Seattle ALSO lost Lynch somehow, Seattle would probably be in a dogfight with Arizona for the division. I think Seattle will probably land a significant contributor in the passing game, especially if they miss out on Suh and have some cash available.

I actually feel okay about the offensive line, though depth needs to be added. Basically areas like OL, DL, and LB are not a concern for me because I think our starters are already good enough and I trust JS to draft good backups in the draft.

Interior pass rush is a concern, but if Seattle gets Suh or if they get lucky with guys like Marsh... I just have a hunch this hole will be addressed.

KR/PR is a problem and I have a hunch it will remain a problem for longer than we'd like.

Overall, the team I'm realistically expecting Seattle to field is probably a 10-12 win team. For the first time in a while, it feels like this team has some real holes to fill and filling them could be easier said than done this offseason. The positive spin on this is that this also opens up opportunity for a draft pick to contribute right away, or for a player like Suh to make a huge difference. Maybe a guy like Will Blackmon still has one more good year in the tank on the cheap? Maybe Seattle gets lucky and their 1st round pick WR also happens to be an ace return man. There is some opportunity for getting lucky this offseason more than in the past.

Basically, I think as things stand Seattle will likely decline in 2015, but an exciting offseason could change that. And this offseason feels like it has a better than average chance of being exciting.
Excellent breakdown Kearly! IMHO the defense will take a step back due to the injuries, and the offense is going to have to step it up and carry the defense as I believe there are going to be a lot more "shootout" type games in 2015.

That also means we need more XLVIII type games and less XLIX type games from the OC. Also somehow, someway the Hawks need a big clutch receiving threat.
 

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I guess I see it a bit differently, I think we will be as good or better then last year IMO, we had a TON of injuries that effected the depth mainly on the defense. I assume we will have guys healthier overall this season. I expect the fire will be burning even hotter after that disaster in the SB. I still see a 12-14 win team and the 1 seed.
 

Sports Hernia

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Ambrose83":2rl77gjp said:
I guess I see it a bit differently, I think we will be as good or better then last year IMO, we had a TON of injuries that effected the depth mainly on the defense. I assume we will have guys healthier overall this season. I expect the fire will be burning even hotter after that disaster in the SB. I still see a 12-14 win team and the 1 seed.
I hope you are right.
 

AgentDib

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Bobblehead":2h7tl1av said:
Why would we not want the best available at that spot that we have, in fact, why wouldn't we want to trade up, giving up some picks that we have? I'm all for Quality over quantity.ever time, and I do realize that the draft is a crap shoot, but, it is a weighted crap shoot.
Good post on a thought provoking subject.

As I see it, the rationale behind trading down is that quantity can become quality if there is high uncertainty in the draft outcomes. For example, it looks like the Rams have ended up with the better overall quality from the Redskins deal because they had a lot more shots at players who might work out while the Redskins put all of their eggs in one basket and it hasn't worked out yet.

Think of it like buying lottery tickets. Guys like Brady and Sherman have shown that late round picks can still have the same ceiling as the high picks but at a lower probability and that reduced probability can be more than offset by more picks.
 
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