The Power of the Opening Coin Toss

I'm not superstitious, but if the Hawks win the coin toss and defer, I may start my Super Bowl victory celebration 3 hours early.

Here's an interesting stat:

"In the first 48 Super Bowls, the coin flipped at midfield prior to kickoff has come up heads and tails 24 times apiece. The coin toss winner is … 24-24. But, the coin toss winner has won four of the last five Super Bowls. The NFC has won 15 of 17. The last four coin toss winners - and five of the last six - have deferred their choice to the second half. The Patriots are 1-6 in Super Bowl coin tosses (the win was vs. the Giants in Super Bowl XLVI), the Seahawks are 2-0. The Giants won two of five Super Bowl coin tosses. This season, when New England and Seattle win the coin flip that starts a game, they are 18-2; when losing the flip, they are 10-6."

http://www.giants.com/news-and-blogs/ar ... 1c5b43afbd

In addition, heading into the playoffs, the Patriots have won 14 coin tosses (regular season + playoffs) compared to the Hawks who only won the coin toss 6 times in the regular season and postseason. The Law of Averages suggests that these skewed numbers need to even themselves out.

"In the postseason, the Patriots won both flips and deferred both times; the Seahawks won one opening flip and deferred. (Seattle prevailed in overtime in the NFC title game after winning the fifth-quarter coin flip -- because of the NFL overtime rules structure, everyone who wins the fifth-quarter flip elects to receive.) In the regular season and postseason, Seattle won the opening coin flip six times, deferred all six times, and went 6-0 in those contests. New England won the opening coin flip 14 times, deferring 14 times, and went 12-2 in those contests. When Seattle lost the opening coin flip, the Bluish Men Group went 8-4. When New England lost the opening flip, the Flying Elvii went 2-2."

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/page/TMQ ... uarterback

We definitely want to start with the ball in the 2nd half, and so do the Patriots. Winning the coin toss would be big for that reason.

Send Tarvaris out

Hasselbeck":ja8yjucf said:

Send Tarvaris out

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Q: "So, Tarvaris: What's your role on the team?"

A: "I go out for the coin toss!"

A well-paid flip-caster.

Do the Patriots usually defer? I would think that would go against Belicheats style.

dadof3":2cvinvoa said:

Do the Patriots usually defer? I would think that would go against Belicheats style.

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"New England won the opening coin flip 14 times, deferring 14 times, and went 12-2 in those contests."

Armchair Bronco":166bfzhd said:

In addition, heading into the playoffs, the Patriots have won 14 coin tosses (regular season + playoffs) compared the Hawks who only won the coin toss 6 times in the regular season and postseason. The Law of Averages suggests that these skewed numbers need to even themselves out.

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Coin flips are totally independent events (50-50 every time). Therefore, past events have no effect on future events. If the Patriots had won the coin flip all 18 times, and the Seahawks had won the coin flip zero times, there would still be a 50% chance each team would win it. Past events suggest nothing.

hawknation2015":2161au7d said:

dadof3":2161au7d said:

Do the Patriots usually defer? I would think that would go against Belicheats style.

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"New England won the opening coin flip 14 times, deferring 14 times, and went 12-2 in those contests."

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Thank you for that, I'm a little surprised

hawknation2015":dwbiq9q5 said:

Coin flips are totally independent events (50-50 every time). Therefore, past events have no effect on future events. If the Patriots had won the coin flip all 18 times, and the Seahawks had won the coin flip zero times, there would still be a 50% chance each team would win it. Past events suggest nothing.

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I understand that. However, I'm also the guy in Vegas who hangs around the Roulette wheel, waiting for stale ranges of numbers to show up on the board so I can bet on them!

The mathematics guy in me knows that each roll is independent of every other roll. But the gambler in me "knows" that if 12, 13, 14, and 15 haven't shown up in ages, it's time for me to put down some $5 chips on 12, 13, 14 and 15.

The way I see it (and this is the gambler speaking): "If the Patriots have won 14 coin tosses compared to only 6 that the Hawks have won, well -- it's common sense! The Hawks are overdue for a coin toss win!"

And when they win the toss tomorrow, they'll defer. And when they defer, they're UNDEFEATED!

Go Hawks!

hawknation2015":93cbz0rt said:

We definitely want to start with the ball in the 2nd half, and so do the Patriots. Winning the coin toss would be big for that reason.

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We have gone 3 and out at the start of 2nd half many times, but we have won the games. I am not too worried. Our players take time to settle and sometimes after you come back from the locker room, the play calling we make mostly is to fool the opposing team on the 4th quarter. We are known to give different looks and then take advantage when the opposing team starts thinking a certain way or starts to get tired. Having a defense like ours is one of the greatest benefits for our offense to just make some high efficient plays and build a lead on high precision plays and being efficient. I seriously have been thinking some of the play calling which we all think were terrible was purely called to get the opposing team to think a certain way before we start our execution. Every time I watch the scoreboard and actually watch the game, I find it really surprising how big a lead is or how close the score was. Totally confusing

seahawks08":3g32s5ij said:

hawknation2015":3g32s5ij said:

We definitely want to start with the ball in the 2nd half, and so do the Patriots. Winning the coin toss would be big for that reason.

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We have gone 3 and out at the start of 2nd half many times, but we have won the games. I am not too worried. Our players take time to settle and sometimes after you come back from the locker room, the play calling we make mostly is to fool the opposing team on the 4th quarter. We are known to give different looks and then take advantage when the opposing team starts thinking a certain way or starts to get tired. Having a defense like ours is one of the greatest benefits for our offense to just make some high efficient plays and build a lead on high precision plays and being efficient. I seriously have been thinking some of the play calling which we all think were terrible was purely called to get the opposing team to think a certain way before we start our execution. Every time I watch the scoreboard and actually watch the game, I find it really surprising how big a lead is or how close the score was. Totally confusing

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Nothing to worry about . . . it's a 50-50 prospect. Just saying we would prefer to win it so we can defer. We are undefeated this season when starting with the ball in the second half. It allows us to set the tone on defense from the start of the game, and it gives us that first possession in the 2nd half to play the field position game.

dadof3":fho6ekzr said:

hawknation2015":fho6ekzr said:

dadof3":fho6ekzr said:

Do the Patriots usually defer? I would think that would go against Belicheats style.

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"New England won the opening coin flip 14 times, deferring 14 times, and went 12-2 in those contests."

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Thank you for that, I'm a little surprised

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Has nothing to do with personal style. It's the smart decision in almost all cases.