Russell Wilson Under Pressure -- PFF Article

Hawkscanner

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I didn't see this posted anywhere yet, so thought I would bring it to people's attention who hadn't seen it yet. Pro Football Focus just put out an interesting analysis piece on Russell Wilson under pressure this season. Here is the link to that article ...

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/12/27/seahawks-russell-under-pressure/

They noted that Wilson is the most pressured QB in the league (on 46% of his dropbacks, he faces pressure from defenders).

Wilson averages 2.90 seconds from snap to release (longest of any QB in the NFL).

When Wilson gets rid of the ball in 2.5 seconds or less ... he has a QB Rating of 113.2 and a pass completion% of 73.9%

When Wilson holds the ball for longer than 2.5 seconds (which happens 54% of the time) ... his QB Rating falls to 75.7 (17th in the NFL)


Do we need any clearer indicator of just how badly this WR corps (as a whole) is in need of being upgraded? Can you imagine what Russell Wilson would look like if he had a Larry Fitzgerald (in his prime), a Calvin Johnson, etc. to throw to? What would Wilson look like if he had that elite #1 receiver --- someone whom the defense had to really respect, back off of, and as a result made the entire rest of the receiving corps better? I don't know if Richardson can be that guy or not, but if I'm John Schneider I'm not putting all my eggs in that basket. Upgrading the receiving corps and the offensive line have to rank priority #1 and #1A. We can debate the order, but I doubt few will disagree those are the top priorities (outside of getting Wilson and Wagner signed to long term deals, that is).
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Since a lot of people seem to only read the initial OP post in a thread, I'll go ahead and post my follow up post with additional thoughts/comments (that I have posted below) here as well ...


The numbers that Pro Football Focus cites simply underscore what many of our eyes have told us for some time -- that Russell Wilson (when he gets rid of the ball quickly) is an amazing QB. When he holds on to it, look out.

But WHY is Russell holding on to the ball so long on so many plays? That is the key question. I would say that the problem has been twofold ...

1) Offensive Line play -- the line has been pretty shoddy all season long. Due to Unger's injury and Sweezy's and Carpenter's inconsistent play, teams have been able to get pressure right up the gut. Justin Britt has struggled quite a bit in pass protection as well this year. As a result, Russell has been running for his life a good percentage of the time. Part of the reason that he holds the ball so long is that he's spending a lot of time dodging and running away from defenders. During those few times he's actually had a clean pocket, he's looked pretty good. Outside of re-signing Russell Wilson and Bobby Wagner, addressing the woes of this offensive line has to rank as priority #1 this coming offseason.

2) That said, production from the WR spot has been the other part of the issue. Russell is also holding the ball so long because many, many times guys simply aren't getting open. Sidney Rice was brought up and that's precisely the point. Since 2012, this team has missed Sidney Rice from an offensive standpoint. It's missed a receiver who can really stretch a defense -- someone whom the defense has had to respect. Why did Carroll and Schneider invest so much to bring in Percy Harvin? That's exactly why. Those guys know that this receiving corps (as a whole) benefits from having a real big play making WR out there. A Sidney Rice type -- someone with great hands who can consistently beat press coverage, has the moves to juke opposing DB's out of their socks, and who has the instincts to consistently bail the QB out when he's in trouble -- is exactly what this Seahawks team has been missing. A guy like that makes the entire offense better because he makes those DB's back off and creates space for everyone else.

And I'm obviously not the only one who believes that this team needs that #1 play making receiver. Several people in this thread and out there have argued that point. Our old friend Doug Farrar was in for Jerry Brewer on KJR on New Year's Day ... and he and Matt Waldman from Football Outsiders talked about that at length. Waldman discussed guys like Kasen Williams, Duke Williams, Jalen Strong, and Dorial Green Beckham (a very intriguing guy if he can put his issues behind him) in connection with the Hawks.

Rob over at Seahawks Draft Blog has a great article up right now on Minnesota TE Maxx Williams of the Gophers -- a very intriguing possibility that could help to actually cure some of both ills.

Now, we can all argue if Darrell Bevell is going to have the wherewithal to utilize a WR of that magnitude correctly (his simplistic route concepts drive me nuts at times) ... but as SDHawk pointed out, Bevell's passing offenses have put up good numbers in the past.

As far as the "can we keep" such a guy long term -- I would say that we at least have him under club control for 3-5 years. You can win a whole lot more NFC Championships and Super Bowls during that time. If this Seahawks team develops a deadly offense to go along with its already deadly defense -- Look Out!
 

theincrediblesok

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Do they measure how many balls he had to throw away for those passes that takes more than 2.5 seconds. He's had to throw them a bunch away this year so he doesn't get a sack. If not for those I think he would have a better QBR.
 

AROS

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Russell Wilson with a true elite #1 receiver would quite literally be unfair to the rest of the league.

I love our work horses like Baldwin and Kearse...They put on their hard hats and bust their tails for us, but a TRUE #1 receiver would just be bananas.
 

raisethe3

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Aros":1nyl1zac said:
Russell Wilson with a true elite #1 receiver would quite literally be unfair to the rest of the league.

I love our work horses like Baldwin and Kearse...They put on their hard hats and bust their tails for us, but a TRUE #1 receiver would just be bananas.

I've always wondered about that. The question is, will we ever have one? Unless you guys count Baldwin as one.
 

The Outfield

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I question what true #1 receiver would want to come here. Everyone seems to want yards, yards, and more yards these days. We're well known for being a run-first offense and that's not very appealing to most #1 receivers. This is why it's a shame we got rid of Tate, because he was already established in this offense and he was relatively inexpensive for his worth.
 

Tmagopis

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Everyone, including me, is obsessed with the big wide receiver. However, getting one doesnt necessarily mean a winning team, just boosted stats. Fans always scream for a better wide receiver, have for years. But look at this years top 10, from espn:

1 Antonio Brown, WR PIT 122 168 1,570 12.9 12 54 18 104.7 1 568 80
2 Julio Jones, WR ATL 100 156 1,535 15.4 6 79 30 109.6 2 553 72
3 Demaryius Thomas, WR DEN 103 167 1,504 14.6 11 86 23 100.3 0 647 64
4 Jordy Nelson, WR GB 92 143 1,433 15.6 13 80 18 95.5 0 481 66
5 T.Y. Hilton, WR IND 82 127 1,345 16.4 7 73 21 96.1 3 372 62
6 Emmanuel Sanders, WR DEN 95 132 1,331 14.0 9 48 23 88.7 1 370 66
7 Golden Tate, WR DET 96 137 1,286 13.4 4 73 17 85.7 1 691 55
8 Jeremy Maclin, WR PHI 82 137 1,269 15.5 10 72 19 84.6 0 489 54
9 Dez Bryant, WR DAL 84 132 1,221 14.5 14 68 20 81.4 0 352 58
10 Randall Cobb, WR GB 87 121 1,207 13.9 10 70 22 80.5 1 556 67

How many super bowl winners? You got Nelson and Tate, but he wasnt a mega star with us last year. Calvin Johnson, and Aj Green both dont have one. Would you consider Hines Ward a big time receiver? Because he's got two. What about TO? None. Moss? None.

I would say, if you want a big time catcher, you're going to blow your load. Once you do that you have to give him the ball a lot (like we did with percy, although they would go deep more, probably). That takes away from other guys, like we've seen.

I think Russell is just going to keep doing what hes doing with mediocre wide outs. Maybe develop more chemistry with the tight ends, but I don't see this team ever splurging again on a big time WR. We aren't the packers, if you look at their philosophy of how to build a team, and compare it to ours it really is quite different.
 

theincrediblesok

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I think Baldwin would of made 1000 yards this season. If we didn't have Harvin in the first 5 games where we were constantly trying to feed him, Baldwin could of got more touches. Right now he is at 782 yards with one more game to go. Our offense spreads the ball too much and we are a run first team. Baldwin was killing the Rams last game and I can see him putting up another 100 yard game.
 

ivotuk

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It's not the big WR we need, but instead a decent offensive line. It's the pressure you mentioned causes the problems.

Russell is under pressure so fast that he has to move around in order to avoid a hit and be able to get rid of the ball. If he wasn't constantly running for his life, he wouldn't have to hang on to the ball for so long.

Add those stats on Wilson being the most pressured QB in the league to the stats of Marshawn being the RB who most consistently must break initial contact behind the LOS and what does that tell you? :|
 

olyfan63

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Baldwin's a good #2 receiver. Tate was a good #2 receiver. Rice was a good #1.5 receiver. So Wilson had that trio in 2012, and all he did was tie the rookie record for TD passes. Then match it the next season, IIRC.

So for sure Pete and John are going to look to upgrade the WR position in the draft, maybe sign a FA. Unfortunately, both TO and Ochocinco were washed up by the time they came here for a look-see. So they went after Sidney Rice in Free Agency, got him, his body broke down 2 years later. They went after Percy Harvin, got him, his mental wellness broke down---oops, was never there to begin with, so they dumped him. Too bad, they might have gotten a #1 with that draft pick.

If we win another Superb Owl with a historically good defense, and scrap-heap WRs like we have now (except for Baldwin, and by next year Richardson) doesn't that invalidate the argument that we have to have better receivers to succeed?
 

KiwiHawk

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Throw the stats out the window. Wilson is a new kind of QB - one the league hasn't seen and doesn't have the statistical measurements for. He extends plays for opportunities downfield. He uses his feet well, but he's always looking to throw. he's going to hold the ball longer and hence will get pressured more, but he has the tools to evade pressure. He's coached to take the safe throw and avoid the risky ones because turnovers are worse than sacks.

He's not going to have comparable stats to a pocket passer because that's not his role in our offense. If you want to assess Wilson, look to what he does on the field, not on the stat sheet. Blah percentage and blah ratings mean nothing when the guy is completing the passes he needs to complete in order for the team to win ballgames, which is the only performance indicator that actually means anything.

When we're up 3 in the 4th with 7 minutes to go, the only stat that matters is whether or not we an keep the opponent off the field for 7 minutes. And in that situation, I want Russell Wilson quarterbacking the team.
 

olyfan63

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Wilson *would* get stats with better WR's. I mean, this is the guy who set NCAA record for passer rating his senior season at Wisconsin.
Wilson DID tie the NFL rookie record (co-held now with a Mr. P. Manning) of 26 TD passes, when he had Rice, Baldwin, Tate, and MIller to throw to.
 

AgentDib

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I think it is pretty obvious the FO covets stud receivers based on their own actions. They looked into trading for VJax, they looked into trading for Brandon Marshall, and they ended up trading for Percy Harvin.

The question is not if they want a guy like that, but who is available that would fit the bill and whether the cost would be right. As long as we keep picking #32 there are going to be a lot of great receivers who simply aren't an option for us. I know most of the forum has Odell Beckham Jr envy but a guy who goes #13 overall is just not a reasonable possibility for a team picking #32.

My value pick is still on a stud receiving TE. Willson has a lot of potential if he can develop as a blocker, and you can often still get the best TE in the draft each year with the #32 selection.
 

scutterhawk

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Hawkscanner":1iqd7r61 said:
I didn't see this posted anywhere yet, so thought I would bring it to people's attention who hadn't seen it yet. Pro Football Focus just put out an interesting analysis piece on Russell Wilson under pressure this season. Here is the link to that article ...

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/12/27/seahawks-russell-under-pressure/

They noted that Wilson is the most pressured QB in the league (on 46% of his dropbacks, he faces pressure from defenders).

Wilson averages 2.90 seconds from snap to release (longest of any QB in the NFL).

When Wilson gets rid of the ball in 2.5 seconds or less ... he has a QB Rating of 113.2 and a pass completion% of 73.9%

When Wilson holds the ball for longer than 2.5 seconds (which happens 54% of the time) ... his QB Rating falls to 75.7 (17th in the NFL)


Do we need any clearer indicator of just how badly this WR corps (as a whole) is in need of being upgraded? Can you imagine what Russell Wilson would look like if he had a Larry Fitzgerald (in his prime), a Calvin Johnson, etc. to throw to? What would Wilson look like if he had that elite #1 receiver --- someone whom the defense had to really respect, back off of, and as a result made the entire rest of the receiving corps better? I don't know if Richardson can be that guy or not, but if I'm John Schneider I'm not putting all my eggs in that basket. Upgrading the receiving corps and the offensive line have to rank priority #1 and #1A. We can debate the order, but I doubt few will disagree those are the top priorities (outside of getting Wilson and Wagner signed to long term deals, that is).
Sadly, I think that was what they had in mind when they traded for Percy Harvin :34853_doh:
 

scutterhawk

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olyfan63":1xpk6qid said:
Baldwin's a good #2 receiver. Tate was a good #2 receiver. Rice was a good #1.5 receiver. So Wilson had that trio in 2012, and all he did was tie the rookie record for TD passes. Then match it the next season, IIRC.

So for sure Pete and John are going to look to upgrade the WR position in the draft, maybe sign a FA. Unfortunately, both TO and Ochocinco were washed up by the time they came here for a look-see. So they went after Sidney Rice in Free Agency, got him, his body broke down 2 years later. They went after Percy Harvin, got him, his mental wellness broke down---oops, was never there to begin with, so they dumped him. Too bad, they might have gotten a #1 with that draft pick.

If we win another Superb Owl with a historically good defense, and scrap-heap WRs like we have now (except for Baldwin, and by next year Richardson) doesn't that invalidate the argument that we have to have better receivers to succeed?
With four losses this Season, it's obvious (to me anyways) that we need another prolific Receiver to help RW close out the games.
 

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Wilson looked very sharp in a quick passing offense early in the year. I think he had something like a 114 passer rating going into the Dallas game, and then it all went in the crapper.

We saw some of that sharpness in the quick passing game return vs. Arizona.

I think we've actually seen some very encouraging progress from Russell this year as a pocket passer, but it's masked by a brutal yet seemingly random cold stretch in the middle of the year when he had Tebow-esque accuracy issues for no apparent reason. You take away the avalanche of off-target throws in the middle of the year and Wilson is probably a serious MVP candidate right now.

Regardless, I agree that we need a #1 WR. I think if you get Wilson a crafty OC and a true #1 and he'd likely blow up like Brady in 2007.
 

HawKnPeppa

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kearly":3v9hf30k said:
Wilson looked very sharp in a quick passing offense early in the year. I think he had something like a 114 passer rating going into the Dallas game, and then it all went in the crapper.

We saw some of that sharpness in the quick passing game return vs. Arizona.

I think we've actually seen some very encouraging progress from Russell this year as a pocket passer, but it's masked by a brutal yet seemingly random cold stretch in the middle of the year when he had Tebow-esque accuracy issues for no apparent reason. You take away the avalanche of off-target throws in the middle of the year and Wilson is probably a serious MVP candidate right now.

Maybe some sort of domino effect in the rotation of roles after Percy left. I see Richardson is starting to fill some of the void.
 

Mick063

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Sure some of this is on the receivers. But much of it is on Russell as well.

It really isn't rocket science and is basically what all quarterbacks are trained to do. Get a pre snap read, sometimes using motion to help determine man or zone, look off the safety from the primary target, go through the progression if the primary is covered, make a decision, and fire away. What do most all of those fore mentioned things intend to do? They find single coverage with a hopeful mismatch of an isolated defender. They are not intended to create wide open receivers 100% of the time. They are intended to locate "one on one" matchups where hopefully the receiver with single coverage can make a play.

Russ needs to find the singled up receiver, fire the ball on time, and trust his guy can make the play. If the receiver can't win his isolation matchup, then it is time to find another receiver that can, but at least give the receiver a chance to prove himself. I will say that Russell did a much better job of this in the last outing against Arizona. He was looking for that Willson/Foote mismatch and finding it. For the most part, he was firing the ball on time with great results.

It isn't a coincidence that his rating takes a big drop when he holds the ball too long. The routes have all run their course and it becomes time to improvise. Sometimes it creates a big play and Russ can improvise with the best of them, but more often than not, it creates inconsistency, occasionally an ineligible receiver down field, occasionally holding from linemen attempting to sustain a block for too long, and often a ball intentionally chucked out of bounds to save a sack. When it is all said and done, there is no net gain from habitually holding the ball too long.

Even the great Aaron Rogers is occasionally nullified from extending plays to excess. Improvising works well when used infrequently and comes as a surprise. When done predictably, like any predictable offensive play, the opposing defensive coordinators come up with quick, effective countermeasures.
 

RiverDog

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KiwiHawk":3h5ctuty said:
Throw the stats out the window. Wilson is a new kind of QB - one the league hasn't seen and doesn't have the statistical measurements for. He extends plays for opportunities downfield. He uses his feet well, but he's always looking to throw. he's going to hold the ball longer and hence will get pressured more, but he has the tools to evade pressure. He's coached to take the safe throw and avoid the risky ones because turnovers are worse than sacks.

He's not going to have comparable stats to a pocket passer because that's not his role in our offense. If you want to assess Wilson, look to what he does on the field, not on the stat sheet. Blah percentage and blah ratings mean nothing when the guy is completing the passes he needs to complete in order for the team to win ballgames, which is the only performance indicator that actually means anything.

When we're up 3 in the 4th with 7 minutes to go, the only stat that matters is whether or not we an keep the opponent off the field for 7 minutes. And in that situation, I want Russell Wilson quarterbacking the team.

I tend to agree for the most part. But stats can tell a story, even on a player as dynamic and unconventional as Russell is. But what I don't think we can do is use stats to rate Russell against the other conventional quarterbacks like Rodgers and Manning. He will take more sacks due not just to his OL but because he will opt to extend a play vs. throw a pass away, run himself into sacks, that sort of thing. He's not going to take as many shots downfield because it's low percentage and he many times has an easy first down for the taking if he runs.

Bottom line is that we can measure Russell's performances if we are comparing them to his past performances, but we can't compare them to the Rodgers and Mannings of the football world and use it to rank their worth to their respective teams.

Oh, and by the way, that's a really cool logo!
 

StoneCold

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Mediocre receivers, sieve like Oline and a QB that holds the ball too long. We are doomed.

SC
 

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