byau
Active member
For the stats and numbers guys and for anyone that likes this type of discussion, here are the NFL Combined Power Rankings this week.
How The Seahawks Did This Week
The Bully Is Back is the line on a lot of rankings when it comes to the Seahawks. As well as a theme with various sports talk shows too. It's possible they could have even got ranked slightly higher with the upset of the Cardinals, except it also looks like the Eagles are back and laid down a MAJOR whoopin on the Cowboys.
From a rankings perspective, quite a lot of movement in the NFC with some big division games combined with a second week of the Seahawks imposing their will and they have finally squeaked into the top five of some of the power rankings.
Questions still arise on the Seahawks offense, which can be expected. After all just three games ago with a loss to the Chiefs they were bordering on mid-tier. Two weeks of solid wins against big opponents and they are right where I would expect them to be.
Facing the Eagles this week after their huge win over the Cowboys, the winner of this game could potentially be #3 next week depending on how Denver does.
NFL Combined Rankings Summary
Take the scores of 7 rankings and combine them. I use a system called "relative placement" which is advantageous in this type of subjective judging. I have used it many times in the past as a head judge of dance competitions which are pretty much all purely subjective judging.
Here are the source NFL power rankings
NFL.com
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300000 ... se-to-no-1
1. Packers
2. Patriots
3. Broncos
4. Eagles
5. Colts
6. Seahawks (+3). Impressive performance from the defending champs, who left no doubt about the query we tossed out in last week's Power Rankings. Yes, the bully is back. Now the question is, can Seattle overtake Arizona in the NFC West race?
SBNation
http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2014/12/2/7 ... s-are-no-1
1. Packers
2. Eagles
3. Broncos
4. Patriots
5. Seahawks
5. Seahawks (+4).Next week, I suspect we'll be talking about the Seahawks ascending toward the top of the power rankings. Seattle's defense hasn't allowed a touchdown in two weeks. Its last two opponents -- the Cardinals and 49ers -- scored a combined six points. So, yeah, the Seahawks are out of whatever funk it was we were gossiping about six weeks ago. Their upcoming game against the Eagles should be a lot of fun.
ESPN
http://espn.go.com/nfl/powerrankings/_/week/14
1. Packers
2. Patriots
3. Broncos
4. Eagles
5. Seahawks
5. Seahawks (+2). Seattle needed Thursday's win. The Seahawks will close the season against their division and the 9-3 Eagles (.625 win pct), the second-hardest closing stretch of any team in the league.
CBS Sports
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/writer/pat ... down-looms
1. Packers
2. Patriots
3. Broncos
4. Eagles
5. Seahawks
5. Seahawks (+7). The Seahawks have held their last two opponents (Arizona, San Francisco) to a total of six points combined. They also have wins over Green Bay and Denver so maybe they should be in the top three. Anyway, they travel to Philadelphia this week and the winner of that game will be in the top three.
FOX Sports
http://www.foxsports.com/nfl/power-rank ... =14&view=1
1. Packers
2. Patriots
3. Broncos
4. Eagles
5. Seahawks
5. Seahawks (+1) The defense has played inspired football over the last two games, holding the 49ers and Cardinals to just six points combined. Although they’re not generating the same pass rush as they had in 2013, the defense has gotten healthy in recent weeks.
Yahoo Sports
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutd ... 31525.html
1. Patriots
2. Packers
3. Broncos
4. Eagles
5. Seahawks
5. Seahawks (+3) The Marshawn Lynch retirement talk has never really seemed like an empty negotiating ploy to me, because I can only imagine how his body feels at the end of each season. I'm glad the Seattle defense has looked like its usual self the past couple weeks, because it makes Sunday's matchup very interesting.
Washington Post Fancy Stats
aka the only numerical analysis non-subjective based power ranking
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fanc ... iots-down/
1. Packers
2. Broncos
3. Patriots
4. Eagles
5. Colts
6. Seahawks (+1) The Seahawks increased their playoff chances by 16.6 percentage points after Thursday’s victory over the 49ers. You can read that here: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NFL/NFC/ ... attle.html
NFL Combined Rankings Using Relative Placement
1st: Green Bay Packers (last week: 2nd)
VOTES: 1,1,1,1,1,1,2
2nd: New England Patriots (last week: 1st)
VOTES: 1,2,2,2,2,3,4
3rd: Denver Broncos (last week: 3rd)
VOTES: 2,3,3,3,3,3,3
4th: Philadelphia Eagles (last week: 6th)
VOTES: 2,4,4,4,4,4,4
5th: Seattle Seahawks (last week: unranked)
VOTES: 5,5,5,5,5, novote, novote
6th: Indianapolis Colts (last week: unranked)
VOTES: 5,5, novote, novote, novote, novote, novote
Fell Out Of Rankings:
aka no 1st through 5th votes this week
Arizona Cardinals (last week: 4th)
Dallas Cowboys (last week: 5th)
Some Analysis With Relative Placement and What We Know
None of this is real deep, so if you see a comment and think to yourself "well, duh...", I have no problem with that
Ranking Shakers
Quite a few big games plus an upset in the top lets the Seahawks slide in at #5.
Eagles (last week 6th) dominates Cowboys (last week 5th): 33-10
Falcons (last week unranked) upsets Cardinals (last week 4th): 29-18
Which then made this game a rankings shaker
Seahawks (last week unranked) dominates 49ers (last week unranked): 19-3
The rankings game of the last week #1 Patriots vs the #2 Packers did little to shake up the rankings, which in hindsight makes sense. The winner of the game would be #1 and the loser #2. Even if one team had a dominating win (like 50-0) it would be hard pressed to take the loser down to #3. That is how far and above and beyond good the Packers and Patriots are considered right now. And in fact even with the Patriots losing to the Packers, Yahoo Sports still had the Patriots at #1.
Natural Breaks from a Tally perspective
Natural Break # 1 Packers are the clear 1st. I even heard some ridiculous stat of TD to INT ratio career all time and QBs #2 though #5 were something like 2.3 to 2.7 and included Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Steve Young, and I think Philip Rivers. So while #2 through #5 toil at 2.3 to 2.7, Aaron Rodgers sits far and above at #1 with a TD/INT ratio of 4.5-ish or something astronomical like that. That is a HUGE leap from #1 to the rest of the field.
Natural Break # 2 Patriots are the clear 2nd
That being said, from what we know, I think the Natural Break is really both of these teams in the top tier. It's simply because the Packers beat the Patriots that it gives the analysts an easy way to give the Packers the nod at #1. But even one ranking (Yahoo Sports) kept the Patriots at # 1 despite their loss. That should indicate something with how close these teams are really considered so in reality with knowledge of history, these two teams belong at the top together.
Natural Break # 3: Broncos by themselves, playing a heck of a game against the very good Kansas City Chiefs. If you read some of the news or listen to sports radio, many believe that the Broncos have had time to adjust to some injuries and deficincies and that they are (quietly) back.
Natural Break #4: Eagles by themselves after a VERY convincing win against the previously ranked Dallas Cowboys
Natural Break #5: Seahawks and Colts. Colts had a 40+ game and dominating win over the shaky Redskins while the Seahawks had a defensive smackdown against the 49ers. In reality, there are a few more teams that are in this natural break that just did not get the nod including the Cowboys and Lions. A few other teams that are on a downtick but could have an argument made to be in this natural break are the Cardinals, Falcons, Bengals, and Chargers as well.
For the most part, I like these natural breaks.
Fancy Stats Outliers
No outliers this time from Fancy Stats. I would have almost said the Colts at # 5, but they also got a vote at #5 from NFL.com which boggles me a little bit. I can only think for the NFL.com analyst there is a bit more importance placed on offense and QB. To be fair, while they were playing a questionable Browns team and Hoyer playing so poorly that we got to see the debut of Johnny Football, the Browns record does indicate they can be a possible good team and the Colts smacked them down.
Or you could just call it two outliers putting the Colts #5 above the Seahawks. But then that wouldn't really be an outlier. So we are back to where we started.
Okay, moving on, there are two big outliers to me though from other rankings, both concerning the Patriots
Yahoo Sports: Patriots #1. Despite losing to the Packers, they kept Patriots #1 and Green Bay #2. The argument is that it was a home game at Green Bay and it was a close game. Not sure about that argument
SBNation: Patriots #4. Patriots... #4? Slipping the Eagles all the way to #2, keeping the Broncos #3. Not sure I like that either. Sure the Patriots lost, but this was a #1 and #2 pairing. The Eagles beat a ranked team (Cowboys in that #4/#5 area) and the Broncos beat a very good Chiefs team, but the Patriots almost nearly winning at home against Green Bay. I can't see this #4 ranking
I would almost let this one go, but since the "outliers" went in opposite directions (one putting them up, one putting them down) combined with an otherwise unanimous vote at #2, I consider these outliers
Relative Placement Fun
Pretty much the most clear relative placement you've ever seen.
Games To Watch For Week 14: Potential Rankings Shakers
All the top five teams have tough games
Packers (#1) vs Falcons (coming off convincing upset win against Cardinals)
Patriots (#2) vs Chargers (coming off a barnburner win against Ravens)
Broncos (#3) vs Bills (the emotional victors the last few weeks)
And of course the big one:
Eagles (#4) vs Seahawks (#5)
The way this is shaping up, I would not be surprised to see the winner of Eagles vs Seahawks jump to #3 at the very lowest, and possibly higher depending on if the Packers or Patriots get upset. The loser of the game likely dipping to #6 to #8 on the charts with a host of other teams ready to take their place including
Colts (vs Browns)
Cowboys (vs Bears)
Lions (vs Bucs)
As far as the non-ranking implications of the next week ... I can only say it surely is going to be a hot mess
GO SEAHAWKS!!
