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Stats abour our play patterns

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Stats abour our play patterns
Fri Jan 11, 2019 5:01 pm

Re: Stats abour our play patterns
Fri Jan 11, 2019 8:32 pm
  • I was just going to post that fivethirtyeight article. Run run pass was among our least succesful play sequences, but yet it was our most used play sequence. The 2 combinations involving passing on 1st down and running on 3rd down were by far the most succesful...and also the 2 least used combinations.
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Re: Stats abour our play patterns
Fri Jan 11, 2019 9:21 pm
  • Don’t worry, this is the part where John Clayton and others jump in to deny the obvious. This offense is capable of dominating the league with some self awareness by Schotty/Pete and a few tweaks
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Re: Stats abour our play patterns
Fri Jan 11, 2019 10:30 pm
  • If you’re still of the opinion that Seattle didn’t need to make adjustments in the second half, it’s only because you can’t accept that the coaches are fallible or you’re trying to preserve something within that performance make yourself feel better. ‘We did what we did all year.’ No we didn’t. Go watch the KC game. That was a mightily coached affair. Russell Wilson is on fire this time of year and the overthrows and misses he struggled with early on were over. He has been money for the last month, when given the chance.
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Re: Stats abour our play patterns
Fri Jan 11, 2019 10:43 pm
  • Whatever you guys say.

    Can't call a first down run, so it MUST be a first down pass - well, that's predictable, too.
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Re: Stats abour our play patterns
Fri Jan 11, 2019 10:55 pm
  • Not one of 538's better articles. Montana points out one of the flaws, which is that what is currently optimal depends on the opponent's expectations. A related error is when people argue that plays should be called more often based on their current high efficiency. Often times the efficiency is the result of a play being called rarely.

    However, there is a much bigger flaw to this article in my opinion. Did you notice that running on third down in their analysis is slightly more effective than passing on third down? Why might that be the case? The reason is that if teams are running on third down it is much more likely to be a shorter distance (ie.. 3rd and 2), whereas when teams are passing on third down it's usually a much longer down and distance. This analysis could well have cause and effect completely backwards.

    Field position, score differential, and down/distance should be critical pieces of any run/pass analysis. You can't just average in garbage time passing against prevent defenses with the pre-planned opening drive plays and call it a day. Similarly, a first and 10 on your 10 yard line with 2 minutes left in the half is very, very different from first and 10 on the opponent's 10 yard line with 8 minutes left.
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Re: Stats abour our play patterns
Fri Jan 11, 2019 10:57 pm
  • MontanaHawk05 wrote:Whatever you guys say.

    Can't call a first down run, so it MUST be a first down pass - well, that's predictable, too.


    I mean kinda, it's about proportionality mainly though. And also by any metric I've ever seen an average pass is a more successful than an average run. As in like EPA per play, yards per attempt, all the sort of scoring probability stats. Obviously everything is fluid based on situation, but as an average I think that's the case. So yes you can't in reality do either at such a high frequency that it becomes too easy to cover.
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Re: Stats abour our play patterns
Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:22 pm
  • erik2690 wrote:
    MontanaHawk05 wrote:Whatever you guys say.

    Can't call a first down run, so it MUST be a first down pass - well, that's predictable, too.


    I mean kinda, it's about proportionality mainly though. And also by any metric I've ever seen an average pass is a more successful than an average run. As in like EPA per play, yards per attempt, all the sort of scoring probability stats. Obviously everything is fluid based on situation, but as an average I think that's the case. So yes you can't in reality do either at such a high frequency that it becomes too easy to cover.



    No one is saying go pass first all the time, but there needs to be a better balance between starting with a pass and starting with a run, That stats clearly show this.
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Re: Stats abour our play patterns
Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:52 pm
  • John63 wrote:
    erik2690 wrote:
    MontanaHawk05 wrote:Whatever you guys say.

    Can't call a first down run, so it MUST be a first down pass - well, that's predictable, too.


    I mean kinda, it's about proportionality mainly though. And also by any metric I've ever seen an average pass is a more successful than an average run. As in like EPA per play, yards per attempt, all the sort of scoring probability stats. Obviously everything is fluid based on situation, but as an average I think that's the case. So yes you can't in reality do either at such a high frequency that it becomes too easy to cover.



    No one is saying go pass first all the time, but there needs to be a better balance between starting with a pass and starting with a run, That stats clearly show this.


    the stat that matters is the overall efficiency of the offense, not extrapolated sequences.

    yes there certainly needs to be more balance. I doubt anyone is arguing that. This article ignores, however, how the success of one sequence is more than naught built by the other sequence. Go "run-run" enough times for grinding yards and the defense will adjust to that expectation, opening up other options.

    Ideally, the OC with an offseason and a year of experience with this group can use the strength of the run to more effect, especially earlier in games.
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Re: Stats abour our play patterns
Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:57 pm
  • While I think the 538 article was an interesting read, I don’t necessarily feel it’s weight is as heavy as others feel. Pete has been successful with his system and that success has come even with the opponent knowing what was coming. He’s always said we’re gonna do what we do. The way those stats are talked about in the article is almost the same as saying 88% of all books are bought at a bookstore.

    I don’t get the over analyzing of that loss. Pete himself has said he should have thrown more. I have seen thread after thread in here arguing about the same crap over that game and it all boiled down to that. That’s it. The only thing left to do now is to wait until next season and see if they learned anything.

    Don’t get me wrong. I agree it gets tiresome watching RRP but I’m not quite tired of winning 10 games a year.
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Re: Stats abour our play patterns
Sat Jan 12, 2019 7:04 pm
  • Watching this Dallas-Rams game is just further boiling my frustration that we could have definitely beaten the Cowboys with more passing. The Cowboys defense knew we'd be ridiculously stubborn, whereas the Rams have them on their heels guessing whether the pass or run is coming up next. Cowboys are getting killed with play action.

    Just unbelievable. We should be playing out there today. We didn't get beat just because we weren't capable, it was all coaching
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Re: Stats abour our play patterns
Sat Jan 12, 2019 7:09 pm
  • AgentDib wrote:Not one of 538's better articles. Montana points out one of the flaws, which is that what is currently optimal depends on the opponent's expectations. A related error is when people argue that plays should be called more often based on their current high efficiency. Often times the efficiency is the result of a play being called rarely.

    However, there is a much bigger flaw to this article in my opinion. Did you notice that running on third down in their analysis is slightly more effective than passing on third down? Why might that be the case? The reason is that if teams are running on third down it is much more likely to be a shorter distance (ie.. 3rd and 2), whereas when teams are passing on third down it's usually a much longer down and distance. This analysis could well have cause and effect completely backwards.

    Field position, score differential, and down/distance should be critical pieces of any run/pass analysis. You can't just average in garbage time passing against prevent defenses with the pre-planned opening drive plays and call it a day. Similarly, a first and 10 on your 10 yard line with 2 minutes left in the half is very, very different from first and 10 on the opponent's 10 yard line with 8 minutes left.


    Pretty much this. 538 should be better than this. Sadly, it looks like they're not.

    I've always hated the simplistic analysis like "when a team runs X number of times, they win Y percent of the time." Well no crap. A team that is in the lead is likely to be running it at the end of the game to burn clock and will rack up rushing attempts and yards. Causality is all backwards.
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Re: Stats abour our play patterns
Sat Jan 12, 2019 7:46 pm
  • AgentDib wrote:Not one of 538's better articles. Montana points out one of the flaws, which is that what is currently optimal depends on the opponent's expectations. A related error is when people argue that plays should be called more often based on their current high efficiency. Often times the efficiency is the result of a play being called rarely.

    However, there is a much bigger flaw to this article in my opinion. Did you notice that running on third down in their analysis is slightly more effective than passing on third down? Why might that be the case? The reason is that if teams are running on third down it is much more likely to be a shorter distance (ie.. 3rd and 2), whereas when teams are passing on third down it's usually a much longer down and distance. This analysis could well have cause and effect completely backwards.

    Field position, score differential, and down/distance should be critical pieces of any run/pass analysis. You can't just average in garbage time passing against prevent defenses with the pre-planned opening drive plays and call it a day. Similarly, a first and 10 on your 10 yard line with 2 minutes left in the half is very, very different from first and 10 on the opponent's 10 yard line with 8 minutes left.


    Of course situational factors matter, and can expose the flaw in statistics. But we have a clear pattern that speaks more to our lack of diversity in playcalling, in comparison to other teams. The bottom line is that our play calling pattern sticks out like a sore thumb, and other teams are not as predictable. I don't really see how your point negates what the article is highlighting. Which isn't unique situational play-calls, but rather poor patterns that obviously cost us the game
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Re: Stats abour our play patterns
Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:29 am
  • Those stats really arent proving much to me. Our pass run ratio on 1st down wasnt that far off.

    As far as the Rams proving we didnt pass enough I dont get. They trashed the Cowboys by running down their throats all night. All I take away from that is we need to build our Oline into a unit that is stronger and smarter to take the team to the next level.
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Re: Stats abour our play patterns
Sun Jan 13, 2019 11:59 am
  • Guys this is not the only article that has said this, most experts have, and our own HC and OC said it stop trying to ignore it. We waited to long to adjust period deal with it.
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Re: Stats abour our play patterns
Sun Jan 13, 2019 1:19 pm
  • John63 wrote:Guys this is not the only article that has said this, most MEDIOTS have, and our own HC and OC said it stop trying to ignore it. We waited to long to adjust period deal with it.


    There fixed it for you, maybe it's because your pretty new but history has shown the Mediots are almost clueless about what makes this team work. Remember these same Mediots were the ones picking us to be 4 - 12 or 6 - 10 almost across the board. Most here seem to jump on their coat tails like yourself and think of it as gospel. Then there are those that use their own eyes, look at the roster and what Pete and John have done and continue to do and make their assessments based on what THEY see not what someone tells them.


    The people that I respect more then most of them and their opinions are right here, members that are tuned in and see the day to day struggles and successes of this team and what players and coaches do day in and day out.


    They typically are a minority becasue again they form an opinion based on what the see and know about the game or have expeierinced playing and coaching the game. They get shouted down by those claiming the Mediots are right, by advanced stats and all. But thats not the whole game.


    Just like Billy Beane in Oakland and Money Ball, used it to evaluate players to a degree but damn I am trying to remember the last time the A 's won a world series...


    Heart. desire, and willingness to sacrifice is something not on a stat sheet. It's also something the players Pete bring's in have in a large amount.
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Re: Stats abour our play patterns
Sun Jan 13, 2019 3:39 pm
  • chris98251 wrote:
    John63 wrote:Guys this is not the only article that has said this, most MEDIOTS have, and our own HC and OC said it stop trying to ignore it. We waited to long to adjust period deal with it.


    There fixed it for you, maybe it's because your pretty new but history has shown the Mediots are almost clueless about what makes this team work. Remember these same Mediots were the ones picking us to be 4 - 12 or 6 - 10 almost across the board. Most here seem to jump on their coat tails like yourself and think of it as gospel. Then there are those that use their own eyes, look at the roster and what Pete and John have done and continue to do and make their assessments based on what THEY see not what someone tells them.


    The people that I respect more then most of them and their opinions are right here, members that are tuned in and see the day to day struggles and successes of this team and what players and coaches do day in and day out.


    They typically are a minority becasue again they form an opinion based on what the see and know about the game or have expeierinced playing and coaching the game. They get shouted down by those claiming the Mediots are right, by advanced stats and all. But thats not the whole game.


    Just like Billy Beane in Oakland and Money Ball, used it to evaluate players to a degree but damn I am trying to remember the last time the A 's won a world series...


    Heart. desire, and willingness to sacrifice is something not on a stat sheet. It's also something the players Pete bring's in have in a large amount.



    Again Peta and Schotty said it, so that's it, you can try as you like to ignore it, but when your head coach, OC, and your QB all say the same thing that means that is what it is.
    Last edited by John63 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 5:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Stats abour our play patterns
Sun Jan 13, 2019 3:52 pm
  • John63 wrote:
    chris98251 wrote:
    John63 wrote:Guys this is not the only article that has said this, most MEDIOTS have, and our own HC and OC said it stop trying to ignore it. We waited to long to adjust period deal with it.


    There fixed it for you, maybe it's because your pretty new but history has shown the Mediots are almost clueless about what makes this team work. Remember these same Mediots were the ones picking us to be 4 - 12 or 6 - 10 almost across the board. Most here seem to jump on their coat tails like yourself and think of it as gospel. Then there are those that use their own eyes, look at the roster and what Pete and John have done and continue to do and make their assessments based on what THEY see not what someone tells them.


    The people that I respect more then most of them and their opinions are right here, members that are tuned in and see the day to day struggles and successes of this team and what players and coaches do day in and day out.


    They typically are a minority becasue again they form an opinion based on what the see and know about the game or have expeierinced playing and coaching the game. They get shouted down by those claiming the Mediots are right, by advanced stats and all. But thats not the whole game.


    Just like Billy Beane in Oakland and Money Ball, used it to evaluate players to a degree but damn I am trying to remember the last time the A 's won a world series...


    Heart. desire, and willingness to sacrifice is something not on a stat sheet. It's also something the players Pete bring's in have in a large amount.



    Again Peta and Schotty said it, so that's it, you can try as you like to ignore it, but when your head coach, OC, and your QB all say the samethign that means that is what it is.



    How often do you buy Coach speak, they should have said neither Fluker or Sweezy should have been out there normally, no scheme can compensate for guys that can't play at the level needed.


    Thats not their style however.



    If they said they had beach front property in Death Valley for sale for pennies on the dollar you would say count me in as well I suppose. Because Pete and Schotty said so.
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Re: Stats abour our play patterns
Sun Jan 13, 2019 5:14 pm
  • chris98251 wrote:
    John63 wrote:
    chris98251 wrote:
    John63 wrote:Guys this is not the only article that has said this, most MEDIOTS have, and our own HC and OC said it stop trying to ignore it. We waited to long to adjust period deal with it.


    There fixed it for you, maybe it's because your pretty new but history has shown the Mediots are almost clueless about what makes this team work. Remember these same Mediots were the ones picking us to be 4 - 12 or 6 - 10 almost across the board. Most here seem to jump on their coat tails like yourself and think of it as gospel. Then there are those that use their own eyes, look at the roster and what Pete and John have done and continue to do and make their assessments based on what THEY see not what someone tells them.


    The people that I respect more then most of them and their opinions are right here, members that are tuned in and see the day to day struggles and successes of this team and what players and coaches do day in and day out.


    They typically are a minority becasue again they form an opinion based on what the see and know about the game or have expeierinced playing and coaching the game. They get shouted down by those claiming the Mediots are right, by advanced stats and all. But thats not the whole game.


    Just like Billy Beane in Oakland and Money Ball, used it to evaluate players to a degree but damn I am trying to remember the last time the A 's won a world series...


    Heart. desire, and willingness to sacrifice is something not on a stat sheet. It's also something the players Pete bring's in have in a large amount.



    Again Peta and Schotty said it, so that's it, you can try as you like to ignore it, but when your head coach, OC, and your QB all say the samethign that means that is what it is.



    How often do you buy Coach speak, they should have said neither Fluker or Sweezy should have been out there normally, no scheme can compensate for guys that can't play at the level needed.


    Thats not their style however.



    If they said they had beach front property in Death Valley for sale for pennies on the dollar you would say count me in as well I suppose. Because Pete and Schotty said so.



    Well you add in nearly every expert out there also I am sorry I know your opinion is the only that in your mind is right, but the facts, stats, experts, and HC, OC and QB all disagree. Since they know a lot more than you or I will go with them. Oh and by the way, no scheme and yet when they finally did adjust we moved the ball and had a chance HMm makes you stance moot.
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Re: Stats abour our play patterns
Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:45 pm
  • I don't know what you're trying to debate here but you aren't participating in any sort of discussion. You posted an article with an assertion you obviously were backing, a bunch of people discussed why that article was not done particularly well, and your reply has nothing to do with the article or any points made, but rather that other people exist who agree with you.
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Re: Stats abour our play patterns
Sun Jan 13, 2019 11:43 pm
  • The weird thing is that we are doing good in points and touchdowns per drive bit yet we are 30th!!! When it comes to three and out.

    So that keeps the offense from getting in a rythm as we saw against Dallas

    https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestatsoff
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Re: Stats abour our play patterns
Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:18 am
  • John63 wrote:
    chris98251 wrote:
    John63 wrote:
    chris98251 wrote:
    There fixed it for you, maybe it's because your pretty new but history has shown the Mediots are almost clueless about what makes this team work. Remember these same Mediots were the ones picking us to be 4 - 12 or 6 - 10 almost across the board. Most here seem to jump on their coat tails like yourself and think of it as gospel. Then there are those that use their own eyes, look at the roster and what Pete and John have done and continue to do and make their assessments based on what THEY see not what someone tells them.


    The people that I respect more then most of them and their opinions are right here, members that are tuned in and see the day to day struggles and successes of this team and what players and coaches do day in and day out.


    They typically are a minority becasue again they form an opinion based on what the see and know about the game or have expeierinced playing and coaching the game. They get shouted down by those claiming the Mediots are right, by advanced stats and all. But thats not the whole game.


    Just like Billy Beane in Oakland and Money Ball, used it to evaluate players to a degree but damn I am trying to remember the last time the A 's won a world series...


    Heart. desire, and willingness to sacrifice is something not on a stat sheet. It's also something the players Pete bring's in have in a large amount.



    Again Peta and Schotty said it, so that's it, you can try as you like to ignore it, but when your head coach, OC, and your QB all say the samethign that means that is what it is.



    How often do you buy Coach speak, they should have said neither Fluker or Sweezy should have been out there normally, no scheme can compensate for guys that can't play at the level needed.


    Thats not their style however.



    If they said they had beach front property in Death Valley for sale for pennies on the dollar you would say count me in as well I suppose. Because Pete and Schotty said so.



    Well you add in nearly every expert out there also I am sorry I know your opinion is the only that in your mind is right, but the facts, stats, experts, and HC, OC and QB all disagree. Since they know a lot more than you or I will go with them. Oh and by the way, no scheme and yet when they finally did adjust we moved the ball and had a chance HMm makes you stance moot.



    What facts? What Stats, Dallas was in a prevent so it wasn't a standard Defense, and Experts, well most don't know the names of half our players. Again the Coach speakl if you have not been tuning in is always to protect the team, they will not throw anyone under the bus. They will speak in generic terms. Those are facts.
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Re: Stats abour our play patterns
Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:45 am
  • AgentDib wrote:I don't know what you're trying to debate here but you aren't participating in any sort of discussion. You posted an article with an assertion you obviously were backing, a bunch of people discussed why that article was not done particularly well, and your reply has nothing to do with the article or any points made, but rather that other people exist who agree with you.


    Obviously you have not read the whole thread so goodby
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Re: Stats abour our play patterns
Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:48 am
  • chris98251 wrote:
    John63 wrote:
    chris98251 wrote:
    John63 wrote:

    Again Peta and Schotty said it, so that's it, you can try as you like to ignore it, but when your head coach, OC, and your QB all say the samethign that means that is what it is.



    How often do you buy Coach speak, they should have said neither Fluker or Sweezy should have been out there normally, no scheme can compensate for guys that can't play at the level needed.


    Thats not their style however.



    If they said they had beach front property in Death Valley for sale for pennies on the dollar you would say count me in as well I suppose. Because Pete and Schotty said so.



    Well you add in nearly every expert out there also I am sorry I know your opinion is the only that in your mind is right, but the facts, stats, experts, and HC, OC and QB all disagree. Since they know a lot more than you or I will go with them. Oh and by the way, no scheme and yet when they finally did adjust we moved the ball and had a chance HMm makes you stance moot.



    What facts? What Stats, Dallas was in a prevent so it wasn't a standard Defense, and Experts, well most don't know the names of half our players. Again the Coach speakl if you have not been tuning in is always to protect the team, they will not throw anyone under the bus. They will speak in generic terms. Those are facts.



    Once again Dallas was not in prevent al the time so that is untrue. At this point this is a waste of my time, If you want to put your head in the sand and ignore the facts, the HC, the OC, the QB, and most of the experts that is your problem. That said the fact is we did not adjust soon enough period.
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Re: Stats abour our play patterns
Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:15 am
  • Figure this is a good place to ask this. I had no desire to rewatch any of that game, but going by memory did we see less of that jet sweep action with Lockett than usual in that game or did I just not see it?
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Re: Stats abour our play patterns
Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:06 am
  • John63 wrote:
    chris98251 wrote:
    John63 wrote:
    chris98251 wrote:

    How often do you buy Coach speak, they should have said neither Fluker or Sweezy should have been out there normally, no scheme can compensate for guys that can't play at the level needed.


    Thats not their style however.



    If they said they had beach front property in Death Valley for sale for pennies on the dollar you would say count me in as well I suppose. Because Pete and Schotty said so.



    Well you add in nearly every expert out there also I am sorry I know your opinion is the only that in your mind is right, but the facts, stats, experts, and HC, OC and QB all disagree. Since they know a lot more than you or I will go with them. Oh and by the way, no scheme and yet when they finally did adjust we moved the ball and had a chance HMm makes you stance moot.



    What facts? What Stats, Dallas was in a prevent so it wasn't a standard Defense, and Experts, well most don't know the names of half our players. Again the Coach speakl if you have not been tuning in is always to protect the team, they will not throw anyone under the bus. They will speak in generic terms. Those are facts.



    Once again Dallas was not in prevent al the time so that is untrue. At this point this is a waste of my time, If you want to put your head in the sand and ignore the facts, the HC, the OC, the QB, and most of the experts that is your problem. That said the fact is we did not adjust soon enough period.


    And your beginning to sound like a troll that just want's to stir the pot, they were in prevent most the 4th quarter when the so called adjustments were made, not in it when a short yardage situation was happening. Did you even watch the game or just going of Blog posts to argue.
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Re: Stats abour our play patterns
Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:12 am
  • HawkRiderFan wrote:Figure this is a good place to ask this. I had no desire to rewatch any of that game, but going by memory did we see less of that jet sweep action with Lockett than usual in that game or did I just not see it?


    I do not recall seeing it much if at all
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Re: Stats abour our play patterns
Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:21 am
  • John63 wrote:
    HawkRiderFan wrote:Figure this is a good place to ask this. I had no desire to rewatch any of that game, but going by memory did we see less of that jet sweep action with Lockett than usual in that game or did I just not see it?


    I do not recall seeing it much if at all



    Because of the speed of the Cowboys defense on the edge with their LB's.
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Re: Stats abour our play patterns
Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:51 am
  • chris98251 wrote:
    John63 wrote:
    HawkRiderFan wrote:Figure this is a good place to ask this. I had no desire to rewatch any of that game, but going by memory did we see less of that jet sweep action with Lockett than usual in that game or did I just not see it?


    I do not recall seeing it much if at all



    Because of the speed of the Cowboys defense on the edge with their LB's.


    Was that the official reason given? Sure didn't stop the Rams
    HawkRiderFan
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Re: Stats abour our play patterns
Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:56 am
  • HawkRiderFan wrote:
    chris98251 wrote:
    John63 wrote:
    HawkRiderFan wrote:Figure this is a good place to ask this. I had no desire to rewatch any of that game, but going by memory did we see less of that jet sweep action with Lockett than usual in that game or did I just not see it?


    I do not recall seeing it much if at all



    Because of the speed of the Cowboys defense on the edge with their LB's.


    Was that the official reason given? Sure didn't stop the Rams


    Buried deep in the apologetic for the Hawks failures is a deep admiration and respect for the Rams, I guess?
    mrt144
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Re: Stats abour our play patterns
Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:59 pm
  • HawkRiderFan wrote:
    chris98251 wrote:
    John63 wrote:
    HawkRiderFan wrote:Figure this is a good place to ask this. I had no desire to rewatch any of that game, but going by memory did we see less of that jet sweep action with Lockett than usual in that game or did I just not see it?


    I do not recall seeing it much if at all



    Because of the speed of the Cowboys defense on the edge with their LB's.


    Was that the official reason given? Sure didn't stop the Rams


    Well there is the factor of only having Lockett that can pull that off.
    chris98251
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Re: Stats abour our play patterns
Mon Jan 14, 2019 3:01 pm
  • Put me in the camp of those who are ok with having a run first philosophy but willing to adapt when things aren't working. I guess a season long example I just thought of (yeah I am up there in age) goes back to the 1984 season. Chuck Knox's love of the run game had given him the "ground Chuck" nickname over the year. Well then Curt Warner is lost for the year early and he adapts the offence with Kreig finishing second only to Marino in TD passes that year (I believe)
    HawkRiderFan
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Re: Stats abour our play patterns
Mon Jan 14, 2019 3:35 pm
  • What I want to know is why defend and damage control this coaching failure?

    Do you get a reward?


    --> "but.but...bbut 2013!!!."


    They had a legendary defense then, you could afford to be sub-optimal on offense and still win. Unless Pete can build another defense like that, they are going to have to be smarter on offense if they want to win a Super Bowl.

    Running into loaded boxes for 3 quarters with no success, and treating your Franchise QB like he is Blake Bortles is indefensible.

    The experts, analysts, observers, fans, media, math nerds, coaches, players, and the QB himself acknowledge/or admit it was a mistake.

    538 not only broke down the Seahawks, but the whole league, it is foolish to consistently utilize the r-r-p sequence, it leads to the most failure league wide. The Seahawks lived in it at 26%, far more than anyone in the league, and they still failed right alongside everyone else, They weren't bucking the trend of failure which makes it even more baffling to continue with it.

    Just because the Seahawks succeeded at times despite this does not justify it. Kind of like justifying keeping CaBevell because they are going to the playoffs every year. They were going to the playoffs every year in spite of them, not because of them. Likewise here, the Seahawks went to the playoffs in spite of r-r-p, not because of it.

    The Seahawks just need to balance out their offensive attack by 5% Run/Pass ratio, With nearly all of it being playaction on 1st down. Which will make the running game even more effective. Then make the natural improvements to their defense this off-season and they can win the Super Bowl next year. Do it Pete.
    Fade
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Re: Stats abour our play patterns
Mon Jan 14, 2019 3:45 pm
  • Fade wrote:What I want to know is why defend and damage control this coaching failure?

    Do you get a reward?


    --> "but.but...bbut 2013!!!."


    They had a legendary defense then, you could afford to be sub-optimal on offense and still win.


    Yes, that's the only thing the 2010-2014 Seahawks were legendary for. :lol:
    MontanaHawk05
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Re: Stats abour our play patterns
Tue Jan 15, 2019 7:01 am
  • MontanaHawk05 wrote:Whatever you guys say.

    Can't call a first down run, so it MUST be a first down pass - well, that's predictable, too.


    Man I hate when people use the extreme example to prove the other side wrong, twitter has been filled with this lazy approach. Not a single person believes we should pass every first down. Statistically, the numbers prove, is that it is probably more efficient and should be a slight bigger piece of the equation for the Seahawks. I can guarantee you opposing teams when scouting for a game love seeing a team that rarely deviates in certain situations because its much easier to coach against.
    austinslater25
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Re: Stats abour our play patterns
Tue Jan 15, 2019 1:11 pm
  • austinslater25 wrote:
    MontanaHawk05 wrote:Whatever you guys say.

    Can't call a first down run, so it MUST be a first down pass - well, that's predictable, too.


    Man I hate when people use the extreme example to prove the other side wrong, twitter has been filled with this lazy approach. Not a single person believes we should pass every first down. Statistically, the numbers prove, is that it is probably more efficient and should be a slight bigger piece of the equation for the Seahawks. I can guarantee you opposing teams when scouting for a game love seeing a team that rarely deviates in certain situations because its much easier to coach against.

    From a purely statistical perspective, the numbers don't tell us anything other than what took place. I think in some ways that is what Montana is hinting at. We don't know if Seattle's efficiency passing on first down would have continued if they did it more often and if we could adjust the numbers for more passing plays then the passing game then becomes more predictable.

    Furthermore, Seattle's offense is actually built around their perceived predictability. They are top 5 in explosive plays largely because teams have to respect the run. It's that predictability that allows Russ to be top 5 in TDs while passing less than everyone in the league. It's also that predictability that makes the passing numbers look more impressive, teams don't expect you to pass, so the pass becomes more effective on the rare occasions you use it.

    I'm not saying that we shouldn't pass more or even make adjustments. I just think it's naive to say a change would for sure make this offense better. It's entirely possible a less predictable running game would lead to less explosive plays and a less effective offense overall. The opposite could also be true but the numbers don't tell us which outcome is true. So the conclusions drawn on both sides of the argument are flawed.
    knownone
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Re: Stats abour our play patterns
Tue Jan 15, 2019 2:03 pm
  • knownone wrote:
    austinslater25 wrote:
    MontanaHawk05 wrote:Whatever you guys say.

    Can't call a first down run, so it MUST be a first down pass - well, that's predictable, too.


    Man I hate when people use the extreme example to prove the other side wrong, twitter has been filled with this lazy approach. Not a single person believes we should pass every first down. Statistically, the numbers prove, is that it is probably more efficient and should be a slight bigger piece of the equation for the Seahawks. I can guarantee you opposing teams when scouting for a game love seeing a team that rarely deviates in certain situations because its much easier to coach against.

    From a purely statistical perspective, the numbers don't tell us anything other than what took place. I think in some ways that is what Montana is hinting at. We don't know if Seattle's efficiency passing on first down would have continued if they did it more often and if we could adjust the numbers for more passing plays then the passing game then becomes more predictable.

    Furthermore, Seattle's offense is actually built around their perceived predictability. They are top 5 in explosive plays largely because teams have to respect the run. It's that predictability that allows Russ to be top 5 in TDs while passing less than everyone in the league. It's also that predictability that makes the passing numbers look more impressive, teams don't expect you to pass, so the pass becomes more effective on the rare occasions you use it.

    I'm not saying that we shouldn't pass more or even make adjustments. I just think it's naive to say a change would for sure make this offense better. It's entirely possible a less predictable running game would lead to less explosive plays and a less effective offense overall. The opposite could also be true but the numbers don't tell us which outcome is true. So the conclusions drawn on both sides of the argument are flawed.


    I will only offer this rebuttal - other teams that are inclined to treat the offense as a focal point of the team don't seem to suffer the same kinda of gaps in efficiency in either rushing or passing that are speculated as possible or probable if the Hawks deviated from their current MO. I qualified that with the focal point of the team to make it clear that this isn't as simple as 'ape the best and success follows'. Rather it's 'literally become an ape through genetic modification and you might be able to get there'. There are proof of concepts clanging around the NFL now that suggest you can almost 'have it all' if you pursue it with all your vigor, thought, and personnel.

    And I don't disagree that maybe a Schotty led offense would have these speculative issues if it changed, but that's a Schotty led offense (and being Pete's underling) issue based on what he brings to the table as an OC, not a rebuttal against teams doing the damn thing on offense without seemingly sacrificing balance, predictability vs unpredictability, explosive plays, 3rd down conversion rates, or whatever else you appreciate about our offense.

    Actually, it is impressive that the Hawks offense does as well as it does compared to other teams given the clear break points where they differ and resemble clearly worse offenses. But it isn't so impressive that the good they do bring to the table in spite of their weirdo outlier status translated in any meaningful way in the playoff game vs. the Cowboys, for various reasons we've already poured over.
    mrt144
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Re: Stats abour our play patterns
Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:17 pm
  • HawkRiderFan wrote:Figure this is a good place to ask this. I had no desire to rewatch any of that game, but going by memory did we see less of that jet sweep action with Lockett than usual in that game or did I just not see it?



    I only remember seeing it once, on the screen to Carson that lost 8 yards. Lockett was leg whipped by the DE, should have been a tripping penalty.
    XxXdragonXxX
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Re: Stats abour our play patterns
Sun Jan 20, 2019 12:05 pm
  • What I see is a lack of self scouting, thinking ,"what adjustments will they make ", and "what will we do if they do X".
    also it seems that teams defend the middle up close to stuff the run or send a LB to rush the pass. I think that's because they're not affraid of crossing patterns or in slants cuz Russ can't see the middle of the field. His best passes are when he runs around and throws deep, and you can't depend on that for a strategy. Am I alone in my thinking?
    Leee-roy
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Re: Stats abour our play patterns
Sun Jan 20, 2019 8:21 pm
  • Leee-roy wrote:What I see is a lack of self scouting, thinking ,"what adjustments will they make ", and "what will we do if they do X".
    also it seems that teams defend the middle up close to stuff the run or send a LB to rush the pass. I think that's because they're not affraid of crossing patterns or in slants cuz Russ can't see the middle of the field. His best passes are when he runs around and throws deep, and you can't depend on that for a strategy. Am I alone in my thinking?



    PCs motto is we are going to do what we do, and better than them. Not let's do what they don't do. He wants to out-execute rather than out gameplan. The only problem is execution give the coaching staff an out, the players did not execute right and makes us predictable, game planning does not as that is all on coaching.
    John63
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