HAWKAMANIA wrote:Frank Gore-Going between picks 50-60 on most sites, which is really good value for a guy that really hasn't shown signs of slowing down. At his ADP I've been drafting him as my flex.
Completely agree. If I draft a risky RB in the first two rounds (Charles, McCoy, Murray), then a guy like Frank Gore is a must in the 5th or 6th round as RB #3. He wouldn't make a bad #2 RB either, for teams that wait that long. I agree, I don't see him slowing down and the 49ers offense is probably going to be better this year.
HAWKAMANIA wrote:Giovani Bernard- Hue Jackson loves to run the ball and the offense is going to be aimed at taming the Red Rifle, that means plenty of short passes for Gio, who had 69 targets last season and could see more in '14. Currently drafted in the late 2nd through 3rd rounds.
I love Bernard. I did backflips last year when I got him in the 9th round in both my drafts. That pick would have made me look like a genius if Marvin Lewis had given Bernard the carries he deserved. This year, they'd snapped out of their stupidity and will feed Bernard the rock, and the presence of Huge Action will play a big role in that.
That said, Bernard will still probably have his goal line carries vultured, probably by the new guy the Bengals just spent a shiny draft pick on. Bernard might only have 2-3 goal line area TDs all year. Of all the top backs, he's the one with the longest odds of putting up a 10 TD season. And while I believe in his talent, he's still an unproven commodity in fantasy. I was a big believer in Trent Richardson's and Lamar Miller's talent too.
Right now Bernard is going end of the 2nd round. That just feels a bit too rich for me. Bernard's value above baseline upside is basically the same as what Julio Jones or AJ Green will provide almost guaranteed, and those players are also going late 2nd. Even though I like Bernard I will probably avoid him this year- there is just too much unknown to take him that early while proven studs are still available.
HAWKAMANIA wrote:Joique Bell- He's the goal-line back, doesn't have the injury history of Bush, and he has more receptions in the last 2 years than Reggie. And...he's going about 40-50 picks later.
Bell is a great example of a not-that-great football player who's a secret stud in fantasy. He gets pretty much all the goal line carries and his reception totals are better than people think. His talent and YPC are not very good, but he produces AND HE STAYS HEALTHY, unlike a certain other RB on that team. Thanks in large part to Bush missing time throughout the season, Bell actually finished with more fantasy points than Bush did last year.
That, plus you don't have to worry about Bush being cleared to play only to sit out the game anyway or leave in the 1st quarter. Bush gave me 3 goose eggs last year despite being initially cleared to play. I ended up winning most of those weeks anyway, but I don't think I'll ever draft Bush again because a badly timed 0 at RB could cost you a fantasy season. With Bell, you don't have to worry about stuff like that.
Now in comes a new coaching staff that will emphasize "power" running more than before. If Bell can manage to look even decent as a 1st and 2nd down runner it's possible he might relegate Bush to being a 3rd down back, and if that happens Bell is basically a poor man's version of 2013 Knowshon. Not bad for a guy who's ADP is only 90 right now.
HAWKAMANIA wrote:Julian Edelman- It's hard to ignore 1000 yards and 100+ catches but that's what is happening. Going between picks 70-80, Edelman is Brady's favorite target, which is never a bad thing.
Edelman is another player I think is garbage but had respectable fantasy numbers. Edelman would not make Seattle's WR corps. Drops too many passes and while he has some polish, he painfully lacks physical talent. His 100+ catches are really just an indictment of how unprepared Belichick was last year for disaster that hit them at TE. I think the only way he puts up numbers like that again is if Gronk is done.
That said, if you draft Gronk in say the 4th round, Edelman could serve as kind of a bizarro handcuff to stash on your roster. That way, if Gronk goes down at least you'll have the consolation prize of knowing your 5th WR is guaranteed to catch 100 passes.