Over-rated as a prospect in 2013 to begin with IMO. As a rookie, he rushed for just 3.5 YPC behind a horrible OL that still sucks. And yet, experts and owners love him. His current ADP is 2nd round! For me he's one of the worst "bell cow" backs in the league, I wouldn't take him until round 6 at the earliest given how good the first five rounds are in a standard 12 man draft. To me, he's an obvious case of fool's gold, this year's version of David Wilson, a player who I thought was insanely over-rated last year.
You know how people are over-infatuated with Andrew Luck and Patrick Peterson because they were such stellar prospects in the draft? Even years later with a ton of NFL data, many overlook the flaws in those players because they can't get over how awesome they were as prospects. I see Richardson as being the same way in fantasy. A lot of fantasy experts talk up Richardson because they can't forget how amazing he was in college. Only problem, he's been extremely terrible in the NFL. Richardson had 2.9 YPC last season and was a disaster in every sense. But a lot of experts are putting him in the 4th round over players like Jordy Nelson, Vincent Jackson, or Reggie Bush. Madness.
Seattle's defense (even though they are awesome).
Seattle has the best defense in the NFL (plus an awesome ST as well), but it was actually only 2nd in fantasy scoring last year. Seattle's obviously got the highest chance to rank #1 in 2014, especially with Harvin returning kicks. The only reason I have them over-rated is because I frequently see them going in the early "money" rounds while quality starting caliber RBs and WRs are still on the board. The value above baseline for even the best D/ST is just not very high, since fantasy GMs usually only carry one defense and you can find top defenses on waivers at any time. Seattle's defense only gives you a fraction of the competitive advantage that a good starting player could.
If you can get this defense once all the starting caliber players are gone that's just fine, but I've seen people taking this defense as early as the 3rd round, while guys like Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers were still on the board. That's nuts. More commonly they go a bit later, Yahoo says their average ADP is 58 overall. That's more reasonable, but I have yet to do a mock draft where they go that late.
He put up strong fantasy numbers last season, but did so with an unsustainably high workload. The team likely drafted Mason to bring Stacy's workload down to a more responsible number, and his yards per carry and TD stats last season were okay but not amazing (3.9 YPC, 7 TD in 250 carries). He also sucked in his last several starts, likely a result of the workload after being a 15 carry a game player in college.
I guess what I like about Stacy is that he's kind of a safe pick, but he's currently going middle of the third round ahead of Alfred Morris, Antonio Brown, and Keenan Allen.
Toby Gerhart is going 62nd overall compared to Stacy's 25th overall. I would take Gerhart over Stacy in a heartbeat. Better talent, more likely to handle a big workload, and in a better overall situation (Gus Bradley wants to copy Seattle's run heavy offense). That plus Gerhart plays in a joke of a division, Stacy plays in the ultra-brutal NFC West.
I would LOVE to be wrong on this.
First, I am not sure if Harvin can stay healthy long enough to ever reach 1000 yards receiving. He's always been middle of the road for TDs, and his huge first half in 2012 basically happened because he was the only receiver the Vikings had.
Seattle hasn't had a 1000 yard WR since 2007, they throw the fewest pass attempts in the league, and they spread the ball.
A realistic projection of Harvin might be 700 yards receiving with 300 yards rushing and 6 or 7 total TDs (including ST). That makes him kind of a fringe #3 WR, and that's if he stays healthy. That plus the "boom" upside on Harvin just isn't that high in fantasy. The odds of him posting a 1500 yard season with 13 TDs is effectively zero.
His current ADP is 44, putting him ahead of Roddy White, Cordarrelle Patterson, DeSean Jackson, Michael Crabtree, Rob Gronkowski, Matt Stafford and Cam Newton.
I probably wouldn't consider Harvin until I had at least 3 other WRs on my roster. He's not a player I would want to have to depend on as a starter in fantasy, but he's going higher than some very productive options.