Which fantasy picks do you feel are over-rated?

For all of our NFL Fantasy and gaming enthusiasts. RATING: PG
  • For me,

    Le'Veon Bell.

    Over-rated as a prospect in 2013 to begin with IMO. As a rookie, he rushed for just 3.5 YPC behind a horrible OL that still sucks. And yet, experts and owners love him. His current ADP is 2nd round! For me he's one of the worst "bell cow" backs in the league, I wouldn't take him until round 6 at the earliest given how good the first five rounds are in a standard 12 man draft. To me, he's an obvious case of fool's gold, this year's version of David Wilson, a player who I thought was insanely over-rated last year.

    Trent Richardson.

    You know how people are over-infatuated with Andrew Luck and Patrick Peterson because they were such stellar prospects in the draft? Even years later with a ton of NFL data, many overlook the flaws in those players because they can't get over how awesome they were as prospects. I see Richardson as being the same way in fantasy. A lot of fantasy experts talk up Richardson because they can't forget how amazing he was in college. Only problem, he's been extremely terrible in the NFL. Richardson had 2.9 YPC last season and was a disaster in every sense. But a lot of experts are putting him in the 4th round over players like Jordy Nelson, Vincent Jackson, or Reggie Bush. Madness.

    Seattle's defense (even though they are awesome).

    Seattle has the best defense in the NFL (plus an awesome ST as well), but it was actually only 2nd in fantasy scoring last year. Seattle's obviously got the highest chance to rank #1 in 2014, especially with Harvin returning kicks. The only reason I have them over-rated is because I frequently see them going in the early "money" rounds while quality starting caliber RBs and WRs are still on the board. The value above baseline for even the best D/ST is just not very high, since fantasy GMs usually only carry one defense and you can find top defenses on waivers at any time. Seattle's defense only gives you a fraction of the competitive advantage that a good starting player could.

    If you can get this defense once all the starting caliber players are gone that's just fine, but I've seen people taking this defense as early as the 3rd round, while guys like Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers were still on the board. That's nuts. More commonly they go a bit later, Yahoo says their average ADP is 58 overall. That's more reasonable, but I have yet to do a mock draft where they go that late.

    Zac Stacy.

    He put up strong fantasy numbers last season, but did so with an unsustainably high workload. The team likely drafted Mason to bring Stacy's workload down to a more responsible number, and his yards per carry and TD stats last season were okay but not amazing (3.9 YPC, 7 TD in 250 carries). He also sucked in his last several starts, likely a result of the workload after being a 15 carry a game player in college.

    I guess what I like about Stacy is that he's kind of a safe pick, but he's currently going middle of the third round ahead of Alfred Morris, Antonio Brown, and Keenan Allen.

    Toby Gerhart is going 62nd overall compared to Stacy's 25th overall. I would take Gerhart over Stacy in a heartbeat. Better talent, more likely to handle a big workload, and in a better overall situation (Gus Bradley wants to copy Seattle's run heavy offense). That plus Gerhart plays in a joke of a division, Stacy plays in the ultra-brutal NFC West.

    Percy Harvin.

    I would LOVE to be wrong on this.

    First, I am not sure if Harvin can stay healthy long enough to ever reach 1000 yards receiving. He's always been middle of the road for TDs, and his huge first half in 2012 basically happened because he was the only receiver the Vikings had.

    Seattle hasn't had a 1000 yard WR since 2007, they throw the fewest pass attempts in the league, and they spread the ball.

    A realistic projection of Harvin might be 700 yards receiving with 300 yards rushing and 6 or 7 total TDs (including ST). That makes him kind of a fringe #3 WR, and that's if he stays healthy. That plus the "boom" upside on Harvin just isn't that high in fantasy. The odds of him posting a 1500 yard season with 13 TDs is effectively zero.

    His current ADP is 44, putting him ahead of Roddy White, Cordarrelle Patterson, DeSean Jackson, Michael Crabtree, Rob Gronkowski, Matt Stafford and Cam Newton.

    I probably wouldn't consider Harvin until I had at least 3 other WRs on my roster. He's not a player I would want to have to depend on as a starter in fantasy, but he's going higher than some very productive options.
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    kearly
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  • I'll probably end up wrong on this one, but I'm not a fan of Alshon Jeffrey. He's being ranked around 20-25 overall. He had 2 monster games last year that accounted for over 1/3 of his point total. Outside of those 2 games he averaged 8 points in standard scoring formats. Cutler has shown an affinity for Brandon Marshall. I just don't think that Jeffrey will finish as a top 10 WR and he's being drafted at least that high.
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    EverydayImRusselin
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  • Totally agree.
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    kearly
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  • Great call on Jeffrey.

    I traded him last year after those big games in a package that brought me Lynch. People overrate the crap out of him.
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    SonicHawk
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  • Completely agree on Seattle's defense. Last year they went in the 6th rd, and that owner was happy. Meanwhile I picked up the Chiefs def after the 1st week and was extremely happy. :)

    There really is no reason to touch a def until the last few rounds unless for some crazy reason the Hawks def drops to like round 8 or later.
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    Timmahawk
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  • If you're league allows it I would argue you can not even draft a defense. Pick up an extra player who might blow up over the preseason and then drop someone before week 1. Streaming defenses is probably the way to go anyway.
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    austinslater25
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  • Timmahawk wrote:Completely agree on Seattle's defense. Last year they went in the 6th rd, and that owner was happy. Meanwhile I picked up the Chiefs def after the 1st week and was extremely happy. :)

    There really is no reason to touch a def until the last few rounds unless for some crazy reason the Hawks def drops to like round 8 or later.


    Same here. Can probably get New England or Tampa Bay in the 15th round and obtain similar output as Seattle in the 7th.

    Trent Richardson is going in the 11th round in most of my mock drafts. I'd be willing to take a flier that late in a 12 round league. (Same with Hakeem Nicks.) Easy enough to dump him.

    G. Bernard is probably going too high just because he won't get the lion's share of his carries like he should. I would also shy away from Andre Ellington in the 3rd/4th rounds which is where he seems to be going. Too boom or bust for me.
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    Sarlacc83
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  • Sarlacc83 wrote:Same here. Can probably get New England or Tampa Bay in the 15th round and obtain similar output as Seattle in the 7th.

    Trent Richardson is going in the 11th round in most of my mock drafts. I'd be willing to take a flier that late in a 12 round league. (Same with Hakeem Nicks.) Easy enough to dump him.

    G. Bernard is probably going too high just because he won't get the lion's share of his carries like he should. I would also shy away from Andre Ellington in the 3rd/4th rounds which is where he seems to be going. Too boom or bust for me.


    Good stuff.

    Any RB with a high chance for 250+ carries is worth an 11th round pick. I basically view Richardson as a poor man's Le'Veon Bell (but with higher "boom" upside), and Bell is going extremely early. Richardson is going 4th or 5th round which I think is too high. But by the 11th round he's definitely worth a roster spot no doubt.

    I like Hakeem Nicks as a late rounder a lot.

    Bernard has a lot of talent, but he's going to have his goal line carries taken away from him most likely since he's kind of a finesse back. His stats kind of fell back to earth late last season season too. I would feel a lot better about getting him in the 5th round but he will go in the 2nd.

    Ellington is probably worth a 4th in that he's less talented than Reggie Bush in a worse offense but is a lot more durable. That said, if I had a mid-4th round pick would Ellington be BPA? Probably not. There will probably be guys like Keenan Allen and Michael Crabtree out there very likely, who knows you might even hit the jackpot in that round with Marshawn Lynch (lots of anti-hype atm) or Jordy Nelson, or some other round 2-3 guy who falls to that spot.
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    kearly
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  • kearly wrote:
    Sarlacc83 wrote:Same here. Can probably get New England or Tampa Bay in the 15th round and obtain similar output as Seattle in the 7th.

    Trent Richardson is going in the 11th round in most of my mock drafts. I'd be willing to take a flier that late in a 12 round league. (Same with Hakeem Nicks.) Easy enough to dump him.

    G. Bernard is probably going too high just because he won't get the lion's share of his carries like he should. I would also shy away from Andre Ellington in the 3rd/4th rounds which is where he seems to be going. Too boom or bust for me.


    Good stuff.

    Any RB with a high chance for 250+ carries is worth an 11th round pick. I basically view Richardson as a poor man's Le'Veon Bell (but with higher "boom" upside), and Bell is going extremely early. Richardson is going 4th or 5th round which I think is too high. But by the 11th round he's definitely worth a roster spot no doubt.

    I like Hakeem Nicks as a late rounder a lot.

    Bernard has a lot of talent, but he's going to have his goal line carries taken away from him most likely since he's kind of a finesse back. His stats kind of fell back to earth late last season season too. I would feel a lot better about getting him in the 5th round but he will go in the 2nd.

    Ellington is probably worth a 4th in that he's less talented than Reggie Bush in a worse offense but is a lot more durable. That said, if I had a mid-4th round pick would Ellington be BPA? Probably not. There will probably be guys like Keenan Allen and Michael Crabtree out there very likely, who knows you might even hit the jackpot in that round with Marshawn Lynch (lots of anti-hype atm) or Jordy Nelson, or some other round 2-3 guy who falls to that spot.



    I actually like Jeffery, but the Cutler/Marshall love affair will always cap him. Ellington I think is quite talented, but playing in the NFC west. I'm okay with him in the 4th. Because let's be honest, who else is there? No WAY Lynch falls to the 4th. Or even 2nd unless you've got some QB happy people, in which case I want into that league please.

    I think Graham is overhyped. I said it. I know his stats are against that argument, but the man is bumped off routes easily and I think teams get super physical with him, not to mention the trio of Colston, Stills and Cooks, will eat into his load. He'll still be good, but not first round good where I'm seeing him go

    Doug Martin. They've openly committed to a RBBC where the backups have proven to be very good and yet people still take him in the first round

    The danger with Bell is Blount. That guy is everywhere taking everything. Bell has talent, but if they change it up with Blount, it'll happen at the goal line and that will hurt Bell.

    Also, Manning. C'mon. The amount of touchdowns he threw is not sustainable. And Ball is a much better RB than Moreno. i think they run more to preserve Manning. I'd still take Rodgers over him
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  • I actually like Bell just fine as a second rounder, the presence of Blount certainly muddies that up for him. I do think he'll have a bit of fringe RB1 value as a pass catcher though, Blount won't be the 3rd down guy, sounds like Archer is going to get some work there too but this all sounds like most team RB situations anymore and Bell is going to get a lot of work when running and passing.

    Some underrated guys, I'm thinking of Bishop Shankey late, I can't imagine Shonne Green is going to start as the #1 all season. Chris Johnson has a good chance at bouncing back too I think based on where he's being drafted at is a good value for a back that finished top 10 last year (although it was a rough 1st half of the season). A lot of people don't think very highly of Alfred Morris but with Shannahan gone, I actually like him quite a bit this season, I have him as a 2nd round running back, sounds like they like him catching passes just fine and hasn't looked bad in the more traditional man scheme they are trying out.

    Most overrated, not sure who I'd select for that, I am worried about Matt Forte making it all year even though he exploded in Trestman's offense previously, can he still carry 250 + at 29? They have a stud waiting in the wings in Ka'deem back there too.

    Maybe Montee Ball at overrated, Manning's RB's usually fair pretty well, can't believe Moreno had a year like last season but I don't think I trust Ball all that much yet.
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  • I'm starting to warm up to Harvin. He was the most targeted WR in the Chargers game when the starters were on the field and the offense looked great as a result. The Chicago game will tell us a lot more, but I think Seattle will have more in mind for Harvin than the kind of touches Golden Tate had.

    ManBunts wrote:No WAY Lynch falls to the 4th.


    My point was that you can usually find a guy you have a 2nd round grade on in round 4. More realistically it might be someone like Antonio Brown, Jordy Nelson, Alfred Morris, or Julius Thomas.
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    kearly
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  • Rob Gronkowski-He's wiggling his way into the early 3rd and late 2nd rounds, which I'd have no problem with if he was healthy. He's coming off 2 injuries and looks like he'll miss at least the first week of the season. That's way too much to invest for a player with his injury history.

    Eric Decker- Going in the 5th-6th round of 12-team leagues, that's WR2 territory, which would be terrific if he had Peyton throwing to him, but he has Geno Smith instead.

    Andre Johnson- Between the threats to hold out, his age, his QB situation, I'm fairly pessimistic about Andre this season. He's being drafted at around pick 40 which is WR1/WR2 territory in 12-team leagues. There's just better options out there.

    Robert Griffin III- A lot of people are high on RGIII this year, making his ADP ~60, in front of Tom Brady and Matt Ryan. I think a lot of it has to do with Jay Gruden's arrival, which is exactly why he's overrated. In Gruden's offense there will be significantly less read-option which means Griffins rush yards will dip further and I'm still not convinced that he's back to his 2012 form.

    Johnny Manziel- Just the fact that his ADP is ~130 angers me. The sequel to the Tim Tebow saga is coming to a TV set near you.

    Steven Jackson- ADP ~70-80 would be awesome value for SJAX in 2011, but he's still fighting the injury bug and hasn't displayed any of his old (young?) self since arriving in ATL. Also, another offensive lineman dropped to an injury while writing this.
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  • kearly wrote:I'm starting to warm up to Harvin. He was the most targeted WR in the Chargers game when the starters were on the field and the offense looked great as a result. The Chicago game will tell us a lot more, but I think Seattle will have more in mind for Harvin than the kind of touches Golden Tate had.

    .


    I am too. If Seattle uses him the way MInnesota did he could surprise. It might not be a traditional 100 yards receiving type of game but more along the lines of 30 yards rushing, 70 yards receiving and always a TD threat.
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  • austinslater25 wrote:
    kearly wrote:I'm starting to warm up to Harvin. He was the most targeted WR in the Chargers game when the starters were on the field and the offense looked great as a result. The Chicago game will tell us a lot more, but I think Seattle will have more in mind for Harvin than the kind of touches Golden Tate had.


    I am too. If Seattle uses him the way MInnesota did he could surprise. It might not be a traditional 100 yards receiving type of game but more along the lines of 30 yards rushing, 70 yards receiving and always a TD threat.


    I looked it up. Harvin was on pace for 156 touches in 2012 before the Seahawk game where he was injured. 120 catches and 36 rushes. On pace for almost 1500 yards from scrimmage.

    I didn't think Seattle would center their offense around Harvin but in the Chargers game, they did. And the result was Wilson looking unstoppable. There is a lot of incentive to channel the offense through Harvin.
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  • Seattle DEF has gone in the first 2-3 rounds of every draft I've been in the last few years. We held or draft yesterday and they went in round 1. My pick was next and I chose Aaron Rodgers. Yeah, serious WTF moment. Cam Newton was still on the board halfway through the second and this is a flex league where you can start two quarterbacks.

    The best part was one of the other drafters criticizing my strategy of drafting Russell Wilson in the 5th round while Frank Gore was available. I explained that scrambling QBs always score higher than RBs and he started laughing at me. And this guy plays fantasy every season. Everyone is looking at him like, really dude? Dumb and cocky is not a good combo.

    I got Zac Stacy in the 13th round. Also took risks on K Moreno and Carlos Hyde. Not super thrilled with my RBs but I've always found my best success on the waiver and FA after the season begins.

    If Percy and Rodgers stay healthy this season, I'm going to have a killer combo with Wilson and Rodgers. Agreed that Harvin really opened up the defense and turned Wilson into a scoring machine, both in the air and with his legs. I think he's gonna kill it in fantasy this season.

    Took a chance on Cordarelle Patterson and DeSean Jackson. I'm nervous about my picks. Really went for the sleepers this season. Honestly though, Washington and Minny are going to throw a lot this season and both those guys will be the primary targets so hopefully it pays off.

    Time to go hit the free agency and pickup a solid RB. I'm starting to feel uneasy about Moreno. Not sure how Miami plans to use him with Lamar Miller coming back
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  • HansGruber wrote:Seattle DEF has gone in the first 2-3 rounds of every draft I've been in the last few years. We held or draft yesterday and they went in round 1. My pick was next and I chose Aaron Rodgers. Yeah, serious WTF moment.

    The best part was one of the other drafters criticizing my strategy of drafting Russell Wilson in the 5th round while Frank Gore was available. I explained that scrambling QBs always score higher than RBs and he started laughing at me. And this guy plays fantasy every season. Everyone is looking at him like, really dude? Dumb and cocky is not a good combo.


    Image

    HansGruber wrote:I got Zac Stacy in the 13th round. Also took risks on K Moreno and Carlos Hyde. Not super thrilled with my RBs but I've always found my best success on the waiver and FA after the season begins.


    I am not as high on Stacy as most, but this is a headscratcher. Even if he was the worst bell cow back in the league, he'd be worth a 7th rounder. His current ADP is second round. Was the entire draft pool nothing but Hawk homers? Anyway, great pick.

    HansGruber wrote:If Percy and Rodgers stay healthy this season, I'm going to have a killer combo with Wilson and Rodgers. Agreed that Harvin really opened up the defense and turned Wilson into a scoring machine, both in the air and with his legs. I think he's gonna kill it in fantasy this season.


    I'm curious to see if the NFL backpedals on the new point of emphasis after the results have been such a disaster this preseason and the outrage is already building to a crescendo. If they don't, 2014 is going to shatter the record for offense. And it's going to help Seattle's offense more than most with all the small/quick receivers we have. If Harvin stays healthy, Wilson could be in for a mindblowing year. Especially with the defenses in Arizona and SF imploding in front of our eyes.

    I really like that pairing. You know Rodgers is going to be amazing with the NFC North being a total shootout-fest. Wilson was 9th in fantasy each of the last two seasons in far more difficult conditions than I think he'll face this year.

    Here's something to consider in a standard league: Both Wilson and Brees have very big home/road splits in fantasy. So it might be worth drafting both and platooning them to get 13 or so home games for QBs who put up huge numbers at home.

    HansGruber wrote:Took a chance on Cordarelle Patterson and DeSean Jackson. I'm nervous about my picks. Really went for the sleepers this season. Honestly though, Washington and Minny are going to throw a lot this season and both those guys will be the primary targets so hopefully it pays off.


    Fantasy experts are sold on Patterson and so am I after watching Teddy Bridgewater look like Philip Rivers this preseason. That offense in Minnesota is going to surprise a lot of people. It's going to be really good. Even last year with Matt Cassel at QB, Patterson was the best fantasy WR in the NFL during the final 4 weeks. He may be raw and gimmicky, but the yards and TDs all count the same.

    Jackson has burned me in the past. Having watched the Redskins this preseason the one thing that jumps out is that the Redskins have very good weapons now, even some of their backups look great. RG3 is like Wilson, he spreads the football around and has very few pass attempts. I would only take Djax as a 4th receiver at most.

    HansGruber wrote:Time to go hit the free agency and pickup a solid RB. I'm starting to feel uneasy about Moreno. Not sure how Miami plans to use him with Lamar Miller coming back


    I'm staying away from Moreno until the ultra late rounds, if I draft him at all. He showed up to camp overweight and will probably start the season as a backup.
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  • EverydayImRusselin wrote:I'll probably end up wrong on this one, but I'm not a fan of Alshon Jeffrey. He's being ranked around 20-25 overall. He had 2 monster games last year that accounted for over 1/3 of his point total. Outside of those 2 games he averaged 8 points in standard scoring formats. Cutler has shown an affinity for Brandon Marshall. I just don't think that Jeffrey will finish as a top 10 WR and he's being drafted at least that high.


    Well after posting this I of course end up with him on my important money league after having an emergency and autopicking my 2 first picks. Now he is questionable again for MNF and he's pissing me off.
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  • Bishop Sankey is looking like he was over hyped, I think I drafted him in the 6th and planned on him starting at my flex. Hopefully he ends up getting the bulk of the carries eventually.
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    getnasty
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  • I was okay with Sankey as a sleeper, but someone in my league reached way early for him in round 5 or something, he's not worth that high of a pick with so many WR and RB still on the board.
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  • Cordarelle Patterson...i drafted him but traded him away
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    -The Glove-
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  • Well.... Le'Veon Bell, huh. :snack:
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    Trrrroy
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  • Bell has been a beast, he was my keeper from last season, I was worried about him(pot bust) but him and Luck have been my MVP's on offense so far this season.
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  • Bell was unimpressive last year kind of like Lynch in 2010, but he still finished with Alfred Morris level fantasy production due to the style of offense he's in. The Steelers run game sucked last year, but it's a new season and It was much more likely Bell wouldd be better than worse this year simply because of the run blocking had more room to go up than down. Per FO, the Steelers run blocking has gone from 22nd to 14th this year.

    My mistake was that I didn't realize that Bell was more likely to improve than to decline, and even with his mediocre 2013 performance he was already a mid-teens fantasy RB last year as it is. So he was a solid #2 RB that was likely to get better. And these days, that makes him a 2nd round pick without the benefit of hindsight.

    The Steelers have had an elite offense so far this year in a decent division for defense. Can't say I saw that coming. Obviously, if there was a redraft today Bell would go extremely high because he's now been placed in an elite offense.
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    kearly
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  • Peterson, McCoy, and Forte were prolly 3 of the earliest RBs draft and have some pretty down numbers so far. (Peterson obviously an unforeseeable circumstance...)

    WR, really haven't had that big game from Thomas yet.

    Kind of surprising early season returns.

    Gore is probably the biggest disappointment, I wasn't expecting elite RB 1 numbers but flex TDz and it's been pretty barren out there for him.
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  • Muscle hamster too...and Charles...injuries suck. I have AP and Martin in my big money league. My cheap league I have the dynamic duo of Bernard and Bell
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  • Everyone in my league laughed at my draft and my team is just killing it right now. C Patterson and D Hopkins have been tearing it up every week. Zac Stacy has had okay numbers but he's reliable, and when Knowshon Moreno went down, I was somehow able to snag Justin forsett who's been good enough. Meanwhile, Russell Wilson had a beast game against Denver, scoring in the top 5 in my league. Greg Olsen has been excellent, and my 2 DEFs - AZ and Detroit - have been putting up great points every week. Kam chancellor got me 14.5 last week and Lovonte David has been absolutely beastly again, scoring 10+ every week. Carlos Hyde has been great for depth, and Desean Jackson was the steal of my draft. People actually laughed at me for drafting Patterson and Desean, now I'm having the last laugh as those who scrambled for the big name RBs in the first two rounds watch me get excellent production from Wilson and my other high picks. I've gone 3-0 and currently have the highest scoring team by far.
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  • I drafted Patterson too and am not sure what to make of him. Take away his one big TD run in the first game and he's been underwhelming in all three games. Really hoping that changes with Bridgewater finally starting. Norv needs to find a way to get Patterson touches if Minny is to have any hope this year.
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  • -The Glove- wrote:Muscle hamster too...and Charles...injuries suck. I have AP and Martin in my big money league. My cheap league I have the dynamic duo of Bernard and Bell



    Yeah, they do...
    ...in one league I drafted Charles, Ben Tate, and Ryan Matthews...all out extended by week two...ouch...
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