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 Post subject: Who are your fantasy football sleepers?
 Post Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2013 7:43 pm 
* Mr Random Thought *
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A few of mine:

Reggie Bush.

Bush got off to a hot start last season before cooling off and finished with just decent #2 RB numbers. However, Detroit really likes throwing passes to RBs and Bush is at least arguably the best receiving RB in the NFL. He also figures to be their #1 RB in terms of carries (though I'd be surprised if he got much over 200 of them). Still, I could see Bush having a 800 yard rushing season with 800 yards receiving. Despite Calvin Johnson's enormous yardage last season, he only had 5 TDs, meaning that the Lions like to target other areas in the red zone. Bush is being drafted like a #3 RB but I think he could end the year as a very good #2.

Montee Ball.

A caveat- Denver is supposedly a believer in RB by committee. So I wouldn't expect Ball to get 300 carries, even though he appears for now to be their week 1 starter. Denver's OL isn't great and Denver is a passing offense. Ball is pretty unlikely to be this year's Doug Martin (though he could be if everything breaks just right).

That said, I really like Ball as a bench RB. I drafted Doug Martin late in the draft for my bench last year. I had Arian Foster, Marshawn Lynch, and Doug Martin as my first three RBs that season. I kinda killed it last year. I love taking talented rookie RBs for the bench because even if they flame out, it's just a bench spot.

Anyway, here is why I think Ball is worth the gamble. He was basically college football's version of Arian Foster. Below average speed, but outstanding vision and short area quickness with good size. A TD machine near the goal line. Even though Denver has Manning and a nice receiving corps, they were still top 10 in rush attempt rate near the goal line last season. I could see Ball posting a 3.8 YPC number this year and still getting 8-10 TDs. That is, if John Fox is smart enough to use Ball in those situations over Hillman and Moreno. Maybe I am off base, but Fox never struck me as a bright coach, so maybe he finds a way to **** that decision up. But if he doesn't, Ball could be one to watch for.

I have to believe that Ball is the guy Fox favors at this point for the #1 RB job. Ball didn't dominate the preseason or anything, but he was a 2nd round pick for Denver- the Broncos took Ball with Eddie Lacy and Christine Michael still on the board. That tells me that they are either really bad at evaluating talent, or that they really love what Ball could do for their redzone and short yardage offense. I'm guessing it's (mostly) the latter. As far as the other guys, Hillman was a 3rd round reach who's played poorly and Moreno is looking like a first round bust, one that was drafted by the previous regime. So I think its probable that Ball is "plan A" for Denver.

Ball is also a very good receiver, or at least he was in college. Maybe he turns into another Mark Ingram and busts, but I like him as a gamble. I also couldn't help but notice that Denver was trying really hard to establish the run with their starting offense when their first teamers faced ours in the preseason. Running the ball more is a good way to protect the NFL's most fragile, least elusive, most "can't afford to lose" QB.

Giovanni Bernard.

Bernard isn't a great interior rusher, but other than that, he's strikingly similar to a young Ray Rice. Cincy is a physical team and I think it's just a matter of time before they have a real run game. Bernard was the first RB drafted in 2013 and given his explosiveness and polish I think he at least arguably deserved to be.

One way to help a mediocre QB is to add explosive weapons around him. The Law Firm will probably be the starter in week 1, but I would guess that by midseason Bernard will have taken his job and be giving Chris Johnson type performances (boom / bust). I think by the latter half of the year, Bernard will be a solid #2 fantasy RB with a chance to be great, but again I don't think there will be a Doug Martin this year.

LeVeon Bell (Steelers) might be a candidate too, but he's going to miss week 1 and I wasn't impressed with his college tape like I was with Bernard and Ball. Bell is in a similar situation to Ball but on a much worse offense.

Matt Forte

Forte is solid and safe with limited upside, similar to what Steven Jackson was 3-4 years ago. That said, the Bears drafted some run blockers on the OL and Trestman will make that offense interesting. I wouldn't be surprised if Forte has a career year and puts up #1 RB numbers.

RG3/CK/RW

These guys are all lasting forever even in 10 man leagues. Which is silly. I think the reasoning is that all are seen as risky for different reasons and they also happened to be the 3 QBs who threw the fewest passes per game last season. But still, if RG3 stays healthy, if Wilson/CK put up their 2nd half numbers all year- you are looking at fantasy QBs one through three last season. In fact, you could draft RG3 in the 5th round then grab Wilson a couple rounds later to cancel out the risk.

Tom Brady is a solid value buy as well, but there are reasons for it. He's not a sleeper, but I'd buy high on Drew Brees and Peyton Manning depending on how the board falls in rounds 2-3. Brees had a "down" year last year and still finished #1 in fantasy (IIRC), and he's getting Sean Payton back. And they have a lot of "shootout" type games on their schedule (ATL, SF, SEA, etc).

Jordy Nelson

Jordy Nelson missed time from injury last year and is going in the 50s in my mock drafts. His previous season when fully healthy, he had 18.6 yards per catch. Even in 2012, a down year, he had numbers almost identical to Golden Tate. Green Bay lost Greg Jennings this offseason and didn't really do much to replace him. Their running game, Lacy or not, is still going to suck. That means they are going to bank hard on the 1-2 punch of Cobb and Nelson, with Cobb being the Harvin-type short yardage guy to draw the safety up and Nelson being the Stephen Williams-type to kill them deep. I think a 1500 yard season is not out of the question for Nelson, if he stays healthy. Which is pretty good for a 5th round pick.

Steven Hauschka

I think Pete will trust Hauschka more with long kicks this season after Hauschka killed it this training camp / preseason. Hauschka is going undrafted in a lot of leagues, but he really, really shouldn't. Also, the best fantasy kickers tend to play on the best offenses, and Seattle has an elite offense.

I could probably name 20 more, but I wanted to leave some for the rest of you guys if you wanted to chip in.


Last edited by kearly on Tue Sep 03, 2013 8:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Who are your fantasy football sleepers?
 Post Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2013 7:56 pm 
*Scott of Smacksville*
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Mohamed Sanu. 16 catches, 4 tds last year. And he could easily be the number 2 in Cincy.

TY Hilton. Dude is fast.

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 Post subject: Re: Who are your fantasy football sleepers?
 Post Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2013 8:01 pm 
* NET Philistine *
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I'm with Scotte on T.Y. Hilton

I didn't grab him, unfortunately, but I could see Mark Ingram having a pretty huge year. The light seems to have clicked for him.

Hoping Zach Sudfeld is as good in the regular season as he was in preseason. Jordan Cameron is another one in a "deep" TE class.

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 Post subject: Re: Who are your fantasy football sleepers?
 Post Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2013 8:22 pm 
* Mr Random Thought *
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Hilton was one of the guys I would have mentioned if I had kept going. Good deep WRs paired with good deep ball QBs feel like easy money in fantasy. I expect Luck to take some steps forward this year, and even though they'll go deep less post-Arians, I think Luck's progress will raise all boats.

Another guy I'd mention, Josh Gordon. He has arguably #1 WR talent and there is nobody else on that Cleveland roster that's really worth throwing to. Greg Little and Jordan Cameron are decent, but nowhere near Gordon's talent level. Gordon is going later than he should because of a 2 game suspension. 2 games is nothing. Another bargain WR who's available super late because of a suspension is Justin Blackmon.


Last edited by kearly on Tue Sep 03, 2013 8:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Who are your fantasy football sleepers?
 Post Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2013 8:27 pm 
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Le'veon Bell: Steelers were convinced he was going to set the world on fire before his injury. He has been falling like crazy in drafts and should be back in week 2 or 3 from what Im hearing. Real steal in round 9 or 10 where hes currently doing.

Lamar Miller: Breakout potential and should be the feature back in Miami.

DeAndre Hopkins: I just got a feeling. Playing next to Andre Johnson


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 Post subject: Re: Who are your fantasy football sleepers?
 Post Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2013 8:40 pm 
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Lamar Miller (who else does Miami have? Thomas? Yuck!)

Kenbrell Thompkins (the guy just knows how to get open. He's not very big but he's very savvy with how to separate from a defender)

Andrew Luck (Based on his ADP, it allows me to go RB-RB-WR-WR/QB)

Darren Sproles in a PPR(I got killed last year for trading away Jermichael Finley for him...not only did Finley bomb, Sproles became my 2nd best RB)

Michael Floyd (Carson Palmer threw for 4000 yards for the freakin Raiders! The Raiders. With Fitz on the other side, he'll be seeing a lot of single coverage)

Daryl Richardson (a lot of people are hyping up Stacy or Paead...Rich got the start and with an improved line he should be solid as a flex/backup option)

Zach Sudfeld (the Patriots love their TE's and with Gronk out for a bit, he'll see a lot of targets. Even when Gronk is back, Sudfeld will be used as the new "move" TE, so he'll be used similar to Hernandez)

Zach Miller (If the last couple games are any indication, Zach will see a lot of targets from RW. He can most likely be found in the later rounds or even the waiver wire)


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 Post subject: Re: Who are your fantasy football sleepers?
 Post Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2013 9:13 pm 
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Mine that havent been mentioned already

Danny Woodhead, as soon as mathews gets hurt woody should be geting alot of carries

Chris Givens, seems to be rams best receiver atm

Cecil Shorts, this dude is awesome and might get more targets with blackmon out

Colts TE, i havent decided which one i like best but dwayne allen is the not injured one iirc

rueben randle, had some big games last year and might have a good year with everything going on with nicks and cruz


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 Post subject: Re: Who are your fantasy football sleepers?
 Post Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2013 11:30 pm 
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Tyler Willson. I think if he gets the targets down field, he'll make the most of it and it'll pay off huge.

Jordan Cameron (CLE-TE). Had a nice preseason, and I think Weeden will play a little better this season (especially once he realizes this kid can be a solid weapon).

Cordarrelle Patterson (MIN-WR). Super raw, but Minnesota plans on feeding this kid the ball as much as they can. He's dangerous in the return game, and should turn some heads.

Vincent Brown (SD-WR) Coming off an injury, I think he'll have a solid season. I think it'll help Rivers having him on the field as well.

Jerrell Freeman (IND-RILB) Last season he had 90 tackles, couple sacks, a pick,a forced fumble, and a TD. I think he'll blow up with a nother year under his belt, much like Bobby Wagner will.

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 Post subject: Re: Who are your fantasy football sleepers?
 Post Posted: Wed Sep 04, 2013 8:30 am 
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Hilton for certain

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 Post subject: Re: Who are your fantasy football sleepers?
 Post Posted: Wed Sep 04, 2013 8:36 am 
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Markus Wheaton is a guy I'd watch.

I also think that (if you consider his a sleeper) Danny Amendola will put up big numbers in New England if he can finally stay healthy.


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 Post subject: Re: Who are your fantasy football sleepers?
 Post Posted: Wed Sep 04, 2013 10:03 am 
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UNDERVALUED

RB-Shane Vereen
Ridley/Vereen = Ingram/Sproles = Pierce/Rice = Leshoure/Bush, yet Vereen is going several rounds later
But would try and flip him when Gronk gets back as his usage can only go down once Gronk returns.

WR-Jordy Nelson/WR-Eric Decker
I think both are severely undervalued given that they seem to be locks for 1000/10. Decker outscored Demaryius Thomas in both their matches with the Ravens last season (and post season).

Wk 15
Decker 8/133/1 vs. DT 4/13/0

AFC Divisional
Decker 6/84/0 vs. DT 3/37/1

WR-Chris Givens
I think Torrey Smith is the same as Chris Givens... a go-route burner with little else to offer. Despite all the hype Givens is getting this season, Torrey Smith is still going several rounds higher - thus, Smith is being grossly over-drafted while Givens offers relative value.


DEEP SLEEPERS

RB-Knowshon Moreno
When is the last time that Fox played a rookie RB? Hillman and Ball both have their misgivings whereas Moreno is the most well-rounded of the group. As long as Moreno stays healthy, I could see him getting the lion's share of carries in Denver, as he did late last season (20+ touches a game).

WR-Marlon Brown
Measures 6'5 215 lbs with 4.5 speed. I'd argue that the Ravens don't have a true number one. Marlon Brown has shown very well through preseason and has an opportunity to run away with the starting job. Also see my comment above on Torrey Smith.

TE-Coby Fleener
Mental lapses aside, this is one of my favorite break out candidates at TE. Fleener has an advantage over most other young TEs in that he's had years to develop chemistry with Andrew Luck and knows OC Pep Hamilton's offense. He has the best shot at hitting the ground running and Reggie Wayne can't remain ageless forever.

RB-Mike Tolbert
RB depth in Carolina is decimated. DeAngelo is 30 and is master of negative yardage. I think the Panthers would be foolish to give someone as ineffective as DWill a full load. Besides, between-the-tackle runners do much better in a read-option offense (See Lynch, Gore, Alf) which is why I was high on JStew before he landed on PUP. Tolbert should see alot of carries as long as JStew remains out and he remains the best goalline and 3rd down back in Carolina.


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 Post subject: Re: Who are your fantasy football sleepers?
 Post Posted: Sat Sep 07, 2013 9:33 am 
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Too late to say Julius Thomas I take it?

I meant to pick him up instead of Ed Dickson on Thursday morning, decided he wouldn't get many targets with Manning having Decker, Demayrius & Welker ffs


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