I don't think there's many reaches. I think ODB is a bit over-hyped for the #12 spot. I don't think Juwaun James is a top-20 player. I guess If I had to pick one, it'd be Eric Ebron at #10 to the Lions. Picking a TE that early is a bit of a gamble. For one, he's not the most confident catcher. He also doesn't really block, so he's more of a glorified big receiver who will play in the slot. I think he'll help that offense take the next step, but the Lion's defense needed more help than the offense, and now they have to find a way to split targets between him, CJ, Tate, and Bush out of the backfield.
Eric Ebron could be a hell of a player, but a year from now I could see Aaron Donald (who was available to them) being the better pick, in hindsight. Assuming they let Fairley go in free agency.
Scottemojo wrote:I guess I have trouble labeling anything a reach if the same guy was not going to be there the next time you pick.
Juan James may seem likie a reach at 19, but he would not have been there in the late 2nd. In fact, after he was taken, only two tackles went in the next 40 picks, The Bama kid with the fried knee and Bitonio. I have no problem seeing why the Fins thought James would be gone the next time they picked.
It's hard to call a pick a reach because we simply don't know how the league viewed the player and where he might have went off the board, but, imo, there are reach picks just as there are value picks.
A perfect example is the Paul Richardson selection. The front office had its card filled out with his name on it with the 32nd pick, but knew they could drop down the draft a couple times and grab him at 45. Would he have been there at #64? Probably not, but at the same time, drafting him at #32 would have been a reach considering we know he was there mid-2nd.
I guess what I'm trying to say is that the question shouldn't be, "will he be there with our next pick", but "will he be there 10 spots from now". If so then you trade down and trust your information.