This draft really seems to have a lot of guys who CAN do something. It really depends on what it is we are looking for.
First and foremost, I think we should most definitely stop the conversations about a #1 receiver. Harvin is our #1 receiver. Not just in pay. He is that difference making talent.
Trying to apply #1 WR or 'difference making' talent labels for WRs that will generally have 2nd round grades with a late first possiblity is truly asinine. Because you simply aren't going to find guys of that quality in May where we pick. You need to be picking in the first hour of the draft on Thursday to hope for those kinds of players.
Anyone who becomes that kind of player, is going to do so through development. None of us can say with any degree of certainty if any of these guys are going to develop into difference makers.
Seattle is notorious for looking at what players can do, and fitting them into places where they do that. So I'll focus on what their strengths are.
I found this scouting report to be insightful:
Negatives -- ...was mostly asked to run vertical routes and doesn't have a developed route tree... Fails to gain separation at the collegiate level on underneath routes and with double moves... Has some problems with press coverage, doesn't have quick feet off the line and will let corners get into his body which will knock him off his routes... A long strider with good build up speed but lacks initial quickness... Will let the ball get into his body, doesn't always attack the football with his hands... Production fell off completely from his sophomore to junior season... Still very raw, tough to tell if he's the next Calvin Johnson or if he'll be the next Mike/Reggie Williams, will be very dependent on his work ethic and the offense he falls into... Considering how talented he is, he should have stood out more during his junior season, failed to make an impact in most ... games.
Read this and thought of how many times I heard this about Coleman. Of course, this scouting report was for Alshon Jeffery out of S. Carolina in 2012. The exact same critiques were levied against him when he came out. Almost verbatim really.
So how could a guy who looks so limited and flawed turn into a guy we'd kill to have on this team?
Coleman can run the vertical route. And he's actually quite unique at that ability. He has a stride that is difficult to read and Coleman will own the 15-25 yard redline catch in a way that probably no other WR in this entire class can do. His blend of size and strength as well as his ramp up speed and a fairly unique extra gear that kicks in around 12-15 yards is just plain deadly. In fact I expect he will be great at it at the NFL level.
His catch radius is just ridiculous and compares in the top tier of this class and all NFL receivers.
If we want a guy to threaten deep, and force teams to defend a bigger box, then Coleman is simply an outstanding choice for that.
If we don't necessarily prize that ability, and want a guy who can run the deep out/cross or the post, then there are a number of candidates for that. Matthews/Moncrief would be excellent choices for that kind of quality. Matthews is taller, with more reach. Physically he has better strength and tested slightly better at agility/hip flexibility. Also on tape, he demonstrates a better route running ability.
Moncrief isn't that far off the pace. Has better speed. Is more stout and looks like he's harder to redirect on his routes. Both exceptionally productive. Really they are very similar players. I would expect Seattle to bring both in for a look here in Seattle. And I'd be satisfied with either prospect should we get him. They appear to be diligent workers with a lot of athletic ability. I can't be sure if Moncrief is just not considered tall enough to play the X for a Pete Carroll team. If not, he's not far off the benchmark. He's really closer in height and mass to Boldin. Who I wouldn't consider a good X prospect for us. Moncrief looks a lot more fluid though and is considerably faster than Boldin. So they are not clones by any stretch. It is merely a question to consider. None of us can speak on Pete's behalf so I'll just assume that he is big enough.
It really depends on what we want for that position. Matthews and Moncrief are much better/well rounded players. And I really am very doubtful that Coleman will ever become a polished route runner due to his long stride and poor flexibility. He just can't get his butt down to plant a foot and execute an out/comeback at this point. He will have to rely on outfighting corners for balls at the limits of his catch radius to compensate. That's something I can see him improving at. But it's a scenario that I think Wilson is probably not going to pull the trigger on with any regularity. He is careful with the ball. Coleman is likely to be a guy who is dismissed frequently in Russell's progression.
Coleman is going to excel at the vertical. And for us, I really do think that's a very big deal. We feature that pass a LOT. We like -- no LOVE explosive plays. Matthews and Moncrief are not going to be as well suited for that role. In terms of unique fit meeting desired ability at the position -- I can't deny that Coleman just fits what we want from the X in a very neat/clean way.
Coleman to me is a bigger difference maker in a more narrowly defined aspect of his game. Matthews and Moncrief should be outstanding WRs on their own. Using their agility, speed and size to make more plays in a more generic route tree. Which is something Seattle has a lot of in Tate, Baldwin, Harvin and even Kearse.
Coleman to me is like a clean up hitter. He runs the long ball route. And like most clean up hitters, he isn't asked to spray the field with a wide variety of line drive skills. It's even ok if he strikes out and doesn't make contact. Because when he does, it's going to be big. His value is to protect the lineup around him.
Our offense needs that home run hitter. We're not going to throw 7-10 balls to Moncrief or Matthews. They are going to get 2 to 5. At best. Harvin and Tate are going to command the 0-12 yard pattern type passes. This isn't an offense that grants a lot of opportunity to our X receiver. It is very much a more specialist kind of role.
