My new draft-crush: WR Allen Robinson - Penn State

Discuss your thoughts about anything draft related. Mocks, College and Pro. Knock yourselves out!!! RATING: PG-13
  • 4.6 first run....

    No thanks. If he it here in the 4th...then I would take him.
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    ImTheScientist
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  • 4.60 not unexpected.

    He aint a great athlete. He's shifty. And the worry is, will be quite as shifty at the next level without the great speed?
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  • Meh, still wont make him fall as far as the 4th.

    Really wish we had our 3rd this year, there is going to be a lot of talent around in it.

    Seems like a real quick class this year, no?
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  • A few on here (the Robinson naysayers) remind me of the Tim Ruskell school of evaluation.....only look at the test measurables, and ignore the vast evidence of on-field playmaking highlights. For the record, that is not a compliment. (BTW, 6-2, 220 lbs is not smallish at all.)

    As I review the video, a few things are EVIDENT to the eye: 1) he runs good routes and separates from the DB. 2) He makes tough catches.
    3) he does NOT go down easy. 4) He's durable.

    By all accounts, Jerry Rice was a combine failure and should never have been drafted as high as he was by the 49ers. But thankfully for them, Bill Walsh saw beyond simple measurables and understood that Rice was an athlete and a football player, and the on-field evidence overshadowed his Combine and pro-day achievements. I'm not saying Robinson is the next Rice. I'm simply saying, don't ignore the body of work from the games the man has played.
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  • Jazzhawk wrote:A few on here (the Robinson naysayers) remind me of the Tim Ruskell school of evaluation.....only look at the test measurables, and ignore the vast evidence of on-field playmaking highlights. For the record, that is not a compliment. (BTW, 6-2, 220 lbs is not smallish at all.)

    As I review the video, a few things are EVIDENT to the eye: 1) he runs good routes and separates from the DB. 2) He makes tough catches.
    3) he does NOT go down easy. 4) He's durable.

    By all accounts, Jerry Rice was a combine failure and should never have been drafted as high as he was by the 49ers. But thankfully for them, Bill Walsh saw beyond simple measurables and understood that Rice was an athlete and a football player, and the on-field evidence overshadowed his Combine and pro-day achievements. I'm not saying Robinson is the next Rice. I'm simply saying, don't ignore the body of work from the games the man has played.


    This speed is going to preclude him from top 40 consideration.

    He could well be an outstanding WR. But the reality is, this draft is just packed with guys who could well be outstanding WRs in their own right. He's probably dropping to R3 based on this speed. It's shockingly slow. And Robinson did have speed questions heading into the combine. To me, he's a much slower Percy Harvin. He has good balance, tough to bring down. Decent change of direction. But he lacks any kind of burst that Harvin has which allows him to break free and clean from missed tackles for great YAC. Robinson doesn't get away from tackles easily, but he does have the strength to drag them along for an extra 3-5 yards.

    Robinson dropped about 35-40 spots in the draft with this run. And it's going to be unfair to him. Some team is going to get a steal in the third. It will simply be a function of the fact that this run put about 7-8 receivers between where he was expected to go in 30-40 overall range to where he's going to go now. Those receivers all have good tape too. Robinson doesn't distinguish himself from other 2nd round guys to that degree. But the absence of speed really hurts. That's going to mean 10 to 12 WR hungry teams will have already drafted a WR and won't be in the market for one.

    I don't believe the speed is going to hurt his pro prospects. He's going to make an NFL team and should contribute right away. It will hurt his draft position badly. It's like watching a figure skater fall. They could be awesome at all other aspects. But they are out of contention because other quality competitors didn't stumble.
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  • People pay way too much attention to 40 times. The only merit they have in judging a receiver is how quick he can run a go route.

    Robinson was one of the more fluent runners I've seen on tape. Keenan Allen dropped way too far last year after a slow 40 time and I see a lot of similarity between him and AR, not least that someone's going to get themselves a bargain again.

    And Attyla, shockingly slow? Larry Fitz ran 4.63, I'll take shockingly slow as long as the guy is shifty enough to get separation.
    Last edited by SomersetHawk on Sun Feb 23, 2014 12:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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  • Jazzhawk wrote:A few on here (the Robinson naysayers) remind me of the Tim Ruskell school of evaluation.....only look at the test measurables, and ignore the vast evidence of on-field playmaking highlights. For the record, that is not a compliment. (BTW, 6-2, 220 lbs is not smallish at all.)
    .


    We must know a different Ruskell. You strike me as a new fan, or someone who isn't familiar with the history of JS and PC firt round picks.
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  • People put way too much stock in measurement and every year there's an overreaction to 40 times. Keenan Allen fell in last year's draft because of it, yet was the best rookie receiver. DeAndre Hopkins was presumed to fall because of a 4.57, but was still drafted #27.

    Imo, you're missing on the tape if you think Allen Robinson plays slow or is not a great athlete. He does not have elite top speed, but he can accelerate faster than a lot of these guys showing better 40 times.

    "So @ScottEnyeart knows Coach Carlisle, the Seahawks (and USC prior) Strength coach...here is what Seahawks look at...Seahawks look at 10 yard split and 3cone over 40 yard time...They also look at 20 yard split..Carlisle knows that 40 times can be trained for (some guys play as fast as they run & some guys dont & they know that)" @DavisHsuSeattle

    Compare him to some of the other receivers in the class (numbers from @JoshNorris):

    I'm only showing three receivers, but AR's 10 yard split compared favorably to many of the others and when compared to guys below, he basically outperformed them outside of Brandon Coleman running a little bit faster.

    Allen Robinson
    Broad Jump: 127" - top 3 w/ WRs
    Vertical Jump: 39" - top 6 w/ WRs
    Unofficial 10 yard split: 1.60 & 1.54
    Official 40: 4.6

    Brandon Coleman
    Broad Jump: U/A
    Vertical Jump: 32"
    Unofficial 10 yard split: 1.63 & 1.63
    Official 40: 4.56

    Kelvin Benjamin
    Broad Jump: 119"
    Vertical Jump: 32.5"
    Unofficial 10 yard split: 1.66 & 1.62
    Official 40: 4.61

    Cody Hoffman
    Broad Jump: 108"
    Vertical Jump: 27"
    unofficial 10 yard split: 1.62 & 1.56
    Official 40: 4.65

    If people want an even better athlete, I get that, but to say a guy like Brandon Coleman is athletic enough to fit this offense, but Allen is not is a joke. Especially when considering Allen's tape and production is far better.
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  • Robinson played at 210 lbs during this season and I wonder if bulking up to 220 lbs may have taken some of his long speed. While I never thought he was a speedster, looking at his football speed I thought he would run somewhere between a 4.5 - 4.55 40-yard dash.

    Robinson was in the top-6 for his position in the vertical jump and broad jump, which are the other two test that are key to measuring a prospects explosiveness. So its not as though he is a average athlete. If he stay at 220 lbs then maybe he becomes the next Anquan Boldin.

    If Robinson was to fall to us in the 2nd round, then he would IMO be a steal at that point of the draft.
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  • Jazzhawk wrote:A few on here (the Robinson naysayers) remind me of the Tim Ruskell school of evaluation.....only look at the test measurables, and ignore the vast evidence of on-field playmaking highlights. For the record, that is not a compliment. (BTW, 6-2, 220 lbs is not smallish at all.)

    As I review the video, a few things are EVIDENT to the eye: 1) he runs good routes and separates from the DB. 2) He makes tough catches.
    3) he does NOT go down easy. 4) He's durable.

    By all accounts, Jerry Rice was a combine failure and should never have been drafted as high as he was by the 49ers. But thankfully for them, Bill Walsh saw beyond simple measurables and understood that Rice was an athlete and a football player, and the on-field evidence overshadowed his Combine and pro-day achievements. I'm not saying Robinson is the next Rice. I'm simply saying, don't ignore the body of work from the games the man has played.



    I love it when the Rice example gets used. Like there's loads of Jerry Rice's out there, who sucked at the combine, with middling physical qualities and became legendary all-time receivers. Really it's no different than using Tom Brady as an example for never drafting a quarterback in round one. They are both exceptions.

    And I don't think people are ignoring what he's achieved. I can only speak for myself, but I've watched seven Penn State games concentrating specifically on Allen. And I've talked very positively about what he does well, how he's effective, that he's a terrific YAC guy and a very shifty runner in the open field. He's got a tremendous character and he'll work his ass off at the next level.

    But that doesn't mean he's a first round Seattle Seahawks pick, or a first rounder period.

    And the Ruskell reference is just bizarre. Ruskell concentrated on high character senior players with big production at big schools. I'm not sure how an opinion of not believing Robinson is a Seahawks pick is Ruskell-esque, given the only non-Ruskell aspect of Robinson is he aint a senior. Really don't get that at all.
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  • ImTheScientist wrote:4.6 first run....

    No thanks. If he it here in the 4th...then I would take him.


    lol at the 4th round. Get out of here.

    Not sure if he cracks R1 anymore, but he's not slipping out of R2.

    And just watch the highlights.. the guy isn't a burner like a Watkins or Bryant, but hes very fast with the football in his hands. Very Kennan Allen esque. There is room for guys like that on this football team.
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  • The guy is big and put up slot numbers in agility drills. I want. What a mismatch for nickel teams when we go 4 or even 5W.
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  • Reminds me of a slower Miles Austin, or maybe a MUCH slower Cordarrelle Patterson. Keenan Allen works very well as a comp too. Big dude with moves and YAC ability. I seriously doubt he is fast enough for JS given the bulk of his history drafting 4.4 and 4.5 WRs. He does have a lot of unique qualities and Seattle loves YAC, so maybe JS can make an exception here.

    IMO, he's going to be a good NFL player. I don't know if he fits Seattle. The aforementioned JS speed requirement is an issue, plus Seattle throws the fewest passes over the middle of any team in the NFL, and Robinson is going to be at his best working the middle of the field or in other situations that provide him space. He's not going to be the type Seattle is looking for- the red line threat who scares defensive coordinators.

    He could very well be the next Keenan Allen. But I think what Seattle really wants is the next Vincent Jackson prospect (Mike Evans), the next Brandon Marshall prospect (Martavis Bryant), the next Sidney Rice prospect (Jordan Matthews comes close). This is one of the best years ever to get a tall WR with size and speed, so I expect them to target that specific area of the WR group.
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  • Just to compare previous WR's drafted by the Hawks vs this years class...

    Kris Durham (4th round pick)

    Combine invite: No
    Pro Day:
    Height: 6052
    Weight: 216
    40 Yrd Dash: 4.46
    20 Yrd Dash: 2.59
    10 Yrd Dash: 1.66 225 Lb. Bench Reps: 17
    Vertical Jump: 36
    Broad Jump: 10'01"
    20 Yrd Shuttle: 4.41
    3-Cone Drill: 6.89

    Chris Harper (4th round Pick)

    Combine Invite: Yes
    Height: 6006
    Weight: 229
    40 Yrd Dash: 4.50
    20 Yrd Dash: 2.57
    10 Yrd Dash: 1.61 225 Lb. Bench Reps: 20
    Vertical Jump: 35 1/2
    Broad Jump: 09'08"
    20 Yrd Shuttle: 4.39
    3-Cone Drill: 6.89
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  • HawkStar22 wrote:Just to compare previous WR's drafted by the Hawks vs this years class...

    Kris Durham (4th round pick)

    Combine invite: No
    Pro Day:
    Height: 6052
    Weight: 216
    40 Yrd Dash: 4.46
    20 Yrd Dash: 2.59
    10 Yrd Dash: 1.66 225 Lb. Bench Reps: 17
    Vertical Jump: 36
    Broad Jump: 10'01"
    20 Yrd Shuttle: 4.41
    3-Cone Drill: 6.89

    Chris Harper (4th round Pick)

    Combine Invite: Yes
    Height: 6006
    Weight: 229
    40 Yrd Dash: 4.50
    20 Yrd Dash: 2.57
    10 Yrd Dash: 1.61 225 Lb. Bench Reps: 20
    Vertical Jump: 35 1/2
    Broad Jump: 09'08"
    20 Yrd Shuttle: 4.39
    3-Cone Drill: 6.89


    You think maybe we'd learn that our measurement system doesn't work for WRs?
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  • kearly wrote:Reminds me of a slower Miles Austin, or maybe a MUCH slower Cordarrelle Patterson. Keenan Allen works very well as a comp too. Big dude with moves and YAC ability. I seriously doubt he is fast enough for JS given the bulk of his history drafting 4.4 and 4.5 WRs. He does have a lot of unique qualities and Seattle loves YAC, so maybe JS can make an exception here.

    IMO, he's going to be a good NFL player. I don't know if he fits Seattle. The aforementioned JS speed requirement is an issue, plus Seattle throws the fewest passes over the middle of any team in the NFL, and Robinson is going to be at his best working the middle of the field or in other situations that provide him space. He's not going to be the type Seattle is looking for- the red line threat who scares defensive coordinators.

    He could very well be the next Keenan Allen. But I think what Seattle really wants is the next Vincent Jackson prospect (Mike Evans), the next Brandon Marshall prospect (Martavis Bryant), the next Sidney Rice prospect (Jordan Matthews comes close). This is one of the best years ever to get a tall WR with size and speed, so I expect them to target that specific area of the WR group.

    I think Keenan Allen is a great comp.
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  • Speaking of Rice, his cousin, Jordan Matthews is pretty good but not first round talent.
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  • twelthmanfan wrote:Speaking of Rice, his cousin, Jordan Matthews is pretty good but not first round talent.


    Wrong Rice. He's the cousin of Jerry Rice.
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  • I can't believe I didn't see this thread before. Dude is a baller. Will be successful.
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  • Glad the Allen Robinson fan-club is growing.
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  • At first I sort of passed Robinson off as a 2nd tier type guy...however, after watching move tape I really think he could be a great player. He reminds me SOOOOOO much of Keenan Allen, and we all know how that worked out for SD this year.

    +
    Route running
    Size
    Hands
    Catches away from body

    Average speed at 4.60, but Allen also ran a 4.7 last year. He'll be there at 32 in my opinion. He's going to be a #1 WR in this league.
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  • I swear I didn't read the rest of the thread before I made my last post RE: Allen.
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  • SomersetHawk wrote:People pay way too much attention to 40 times. The only merit they have in judging a receiver is how quick he can run a go route.

    Robinson was one of the more fluent runners I've seen on tape. Keenan Allen dropped way too far last year after a slow 40 time and I see a lot of similarity between him and AR, not least that someone's going to get themselves a bargain again.

    And Attyla, shockingly slow? Larry Fitz ran 4.63, I'll take shockingly slow as long as the guy is shifty enough to get separation.
    lukerguy wrote:At first I sort of passed Robinson off as a 2nd tier type guy...however, after watching move tape I really think he could be a great player. He reminds me SOOOOOO much of Keenan Allen, and we all know how that worked out for SD this year.

    +
    Route running
    Size
    Hands
    Catches away from body

    Average speed at 4.60, but Allen also ran a 4.7 last year. He'll be there at 32 in my opinion. He's going to be a #1 WR in this league.


    I made the Allen comparison a while ago, nice to see you, Kearly and Scotte in agreement.

    Keenan Allen shouldn't have ran last year, his knee clearly hadn't recovered and it ended up dropping him two rounds. I don't think Robinson falls to the 3rd like Allen and doubt he makes our 2nd. But even in the back end of round 2 he's more than worth it.

    With a decent possibility that every team in our division will take a catcher in the first two days, if we can't get him then I hope he lands outside the NFC West. Of course, I'd rather him in our division than Watkins, Evans and maybe Beckham Jr and Lee. Though I'm not as high on Adams, Moncrief, Matthews, Benjamin and Cooks as I am on Robinson.
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  • Hasselbeck wrote:
    ImTheScientist wrote:4.6 first run....

    No thanks. If he it here in the 4th...then I would take him.


    lol at the 4th round. Get out of here.

    Not sure if he cracks R1 anymore, but he's not slipping out of R2.

    And just watch the highlights.. the guy isn't a burner like a Watkins or Bryant, but hes very fast with the football in his hands. Very Kennan Allen esque. There is room for guys like that on this football team.

    Analysists are saying he's an Anquan Boldin.
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  • In his second year Robinson has already eclipsed 1000 yards in 13 games and has 12 touchdowns on the year.

    Really wish we drafted him instead of Richardson (who I also like, but not as much as I loved Robinson). :(
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  • I love Robinson and good call!
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  • Need to get Hasselbeck in the war room when we're drafting WR's. Great call. One of the best young receivers in the league.
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  • I wanted this guy so bad. But he wasn't a fit for Pete's WR profile.
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  • Scottemojo wrote:I wanted this guy so bad. But he wasn't a fit for Pete's WR profile.


    Definitely one of the downsides of the draft is having a favorite prospect you know will kill it, but watching your team pass on them because they don't fit the profile.
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  • Recon_Hawk wrote:
    Scottemojo wrote:I wanted this guy so bad. But he wasn't a fit for Pete's WR profile.


    Definitely one of the downsides of the draft is having a favorite prospect you know will kill it, but watching your team pass on them because they don't fit the profile.


    Well, to be fair though -- if he doesn't fit, then it likely stands to reason that he wouldn't be close to as productive here. If he's here and he's a 35 catch/400 yard kind of receiver do we think he's killing it?

    If we can't maximize his contribution, then what he does elsewhere won't translate to us.

    Robinson wasn't destined to turn into what he's become. It is a product of post draft development and opportunity/environment. He wouldn't necessarily have had he latter here to the same extent.

    If Jerry Rice played for Mike Ditka instead of Bill Walsh, he likely gets buried on the bench because of his drops problems as a rookie. Ditka wouldn't have gone to bat for him like Walsh did. Where you go makes a huge difference.

    Despite that, I still wanted Robinson. I liked him and Jordan Matthews in that class (guys that were still available when we traded down).
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  • Attyla the Hawk wrote:
    Recon_Hawk wrote:
    Scottemojo wrote:I wanted this guy so bad. But he wasn't a fit for Pete's WR profile.


    Definitely one of the downsides of the draft is having a favorite prospect you know will kill it, but watching your team pass on them because they don't fit the profile.


    Well, to be fair though -- if he doesn't fit, then it likely stands to reason that he wouldn't be close to as productive here. If he's here and he's a 35 catch/400 yard kind of receiver do we think he's killing it?

    If we can't maximize his contribution, then what he does elsewhere won't translate to us.

    Robinson wasn't destined to turn into what he's become. It is a product of post draft development and opportunity/environment. He wouldn't necessarily have had he latter here to the same extent.

    If Jerry Rice played for Mike Ditka instead of Bill Walsh, he likely gets buried on the bench because of his drops problems as a rookie. Ditka wouldn't have gone to bat for him like Walsh did. Where you go makes a huge difference.

    Despite that, I still wanted Robinson. I liked him and Jordan Matthews in that class (guys that were still available when we traded down).


    Allen Robinson might not have fit the profile of how Seattle wanted to spend its draft pick, but that doesn't mean his skillset wouldn't translate to this offense if he was playing for us. He's basically a better version of Jermain Kearse who Seattle's been fine with being a starter the last two years. Of course, I wouldn't expect Robinson to put up 1100 yards and 12 TDs in 13 games in Seattle's limited passing offense, but within this system, yeah, I have no doubt he'd be an exciting, productive receiver and would have given this team an awesome 3-wr set with Baldwin and Lockett.

    Also, "a product of post draft development and opportunity/environment"??

    That's a really discrediting thing to say. I mean, is JJ Watt just a product of being drafted by the Texans and Russell Wilson's only successful because he was drafted by Seattle?

    At some point, you have to give credit to the player and skills they brought from the college level to the Pros.
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  • Recon_Hawk wrote:Also, "a product of post draft development and opportunity/environment"??

    That's a really discrediting thing to say. I mean, is JJ Watt just a product of being drafted by the Texans and Russell Wilson's only successful because he was drafted by Seattle?


    They weren't meant to be exclusive. Obviously Watt was not the same player coming out that he's become. Had that been apparent, he's the #1 overall pick.

    There are a lot of variables here. Obviously opportunity and fit are one. So is development and coaching. And so too is just the innate drive/nature of the prospect. They all play a part in developing a player. It's why Seattle likes to cast a wide net. That innate drive is not so easily determined. And generally isn't yet by the time they leave college.

    Sometimes guys have the drive and for whatever reason -- can't blossom in the environment they are in. And then turn into a UFA steal when environment and drive and skill intersect better. Or equally they blossom in one environment and then turn into a UFA dud in another (like Maxwell).

    The point is, Robinson is flourishing where he is. It didn't happen overnight. Or even in the first year. And maybe he doesn't emerge into a star in our system. There is more to turning draftees into stars. Because it works for one team doesn't mean it translates to another. I'm not inclined to think that one players success elsewhere would have automatically duplicated here in Seattle. Too many guys we've added or dropped have changed for the better or worse due to the change of environment. It's not corollary.
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  • I think it's reasonable to assume that since Allen Robinson is a good player with Jacksonville there's an increased chance he'd have been a good player with Seattle, too.

    We really don't need to get into a discussion of Parallel Universes or possible butterfly affect lol

    The whole point of looking back at what-could-have-been is to self-scout our own evaluations at the time and whether the team should have done/do things differently. You can't improve or change the process if we just attribute a players success to the fact he was drafted elsewhere.
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  • Robinson has become the new Michael Crabtree. Complete with a terrible 52% catch rate.
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